All this "it's open", "actually it's closed again", and ships getting randomly attacked stuff, likely means even when a deal is finally reached and it actually is "open", it'll be weeks before ships can trust that to be true and resume regular transit.
We're at least a month away from traffic resuming in the best of cases. Food price is going to go through the roof by the end of this year.
119
Complete-Sort16171 day ago
+26
I’m pretty sure nobody involved knows if it’s open or closed. For most the people watching on cargo ships nearby it probably looks a bit like two knife wielding crackheads fent leaning towards each other menacingly.
26
IntelArtiGen1 day ago
+11
Also open/close doesn't entirely and always match the public statement of the US and Iran. For the US, only ships coming from iranian ports are blocked, so the strait is open in theory for all other ships. For Iran, it depends, sometimes they say it's closed; sometimes it's "open for all but enemies", sometimes when they say that it in fact means it's open but with a toll, sometimes they say it's open but there are mines so it's better to pay the toll, etc.
I don't know what they're saying now and I don't know what they meant yesterday when they said it was open. I think the Iranians living on the coast really want to get paid.
11
MDemon1 day ago
+3
Schrödinger’s Strait
3
WISavant1 day ago
+3
It’s almost like killing as many senior leaders of a country with a history of violent asymmetric warfare and then trying to do war diplomacy via twitter is a bad idea.
3
lostfly1 day ago
+60
Iran had very few friends left in the world. India arguably was among them. Not openly friendly but not openly hostile too.
This shows infighting within Iran and current Indian administration is not one of those that openly postures. But they tend to exact a steep price.
60
PluginAlong1 day ago
+30
Exactly, I wouldn't have thought they'd have fired on an Indian ship. They've previously let Indian ships through, especially after India rescued several of their people.
30
No_Tree_81441 day ago
+16
they've let quite a few indian ships thru so they can probably reassure india it was a communication error or something like that. the problem is the IRGC is so decentralized now that all it takes is one rogue battalion to mess everything up.
regardless this isnt a good look at all. alienating what's a neutral country is the dumbest thing you could do
16
fec22451 day ago
+7
>so they can probably reassure india it was a communication error or something like that.
It wasn't a communication error, they were broadcasting that they were Indian ship and crew.
7
sadacal23 hr ago
+1
The communication error happened internally in Iran, not between Iran and India. Because most senior Iranian leadership are dead and they're operating in a decentralized manner.
1
fec224522 hr ago
+2
It's not a communication error, it's an internal conflict. The IRGC want to prolong the conflict and the political government wants a negotiated peace
2
WISavant1 day ago
+1
Who do you mean by they?
1
PluginAlong1 day ago
+1
Iran.
1
ViroHit_18_451 day ago
+4
If this is true, India might have to pick a side.
4
Full-Fox-3611 day ago
+54
People aren't ready to admit Iran is internally fractured to a point that there isn't a central authority anymore.
There is infighting at the current top levels as people fight to fill the power vaacum.
Iran is probably going to tear itself apart within the next few months.
The internet blackout is helping them conceal it for now. But it's so bad that even with the media blackout it's causing them to target allied ships.
Iran is done.
54
sorrison19 hr ago
+4
Perhaps killing all of the leadership was not the best idea
4
WISavant1 day ago
-1
Agree with all points except the last one.
-1
WittyCry43741 day ago
+6
This was likely a direct slap in the face to Araghchi, who has a long history of working with India. It's a sign of a regime in total internal collapse.
6
Sweet_Concept22111 day ago
+11
Trump yesterday: *"Keep out of Hormuz, NATO, ya pack of losers!"*
Trump at 3:am tomorrow morning: *"Where the F*** is NATO when you need them?!"*
11
Outside-Anybody-78581 day ago
+10
Negotiations going great. Art of the deal.
10
emmer1 day ago
+6
Trump make Iran shoot Indian ship you guys!
6
RelegatedRick1 day ago
-8
Those gunboats from the navy that “doesn’t exist” anymore attacking vessels on the “100% opened” strait
-8
SuperGRB1 day ago
+15
I suspect "gunboat" in this context is some skiff with a few guys and AK47s - not a proper military vessel.
15
OperationClear58823 hr ago
+4
These “gun boats” are the equivalent of strapping a 50 cal gun to a pontoon boat. The Iran navy doesn’t have any actual combat ships left
25 Comments