AP Exclusive: Europe has 'maybe 6 weeks of jet fuel left,' energy agency head warns

There's market manipulation going on with all commodities. Huge investments firms learned about a decade ago with cocoa that they can affect previously stable commodities in a huge way with just over-buying and over-selling commodities markets. I'm in the coffee industry and we're dealing with this right now. We're seeing more coffee bought on the market than what is actually produced in the world. There's no regulation on the market, so firms can do whatever they want and make money whenever they want.

I remember when there was a larger fire in Greece once and the corporations claimed that as a reason for the increase in oil price. Usually when the wind blows a bit too hard the price of oil increases, when the sun is blocked by clouds for over an hour the price of oil goes up. But a war and a blockage of a major oil producing country, eh, might go up a few dollars and then come down, then go up a bit. Something is off.

First… Europe has always operated on a 4-5 week timeline of jet fuel. Thats their industry standard. On that note, this is a sensationalist headline intent on stoking fear and reaction. However when you read the article, the actual topic of the headline is made more clear. The last ships that were allowed through the Strait have officially arrived. This puts them at the theorized 6 week marker. There are no new ships, at this time, en route either fuel. This is where the headline makes more sense given the context. On any normal day “maybe 6 weeks of fuel” would be standard operating conditions. With the strait closed, a countdown actually begins .

TBF they've been releasing huge amounts of reserved and sanctioned crude into the markets so that is 100% a form of market manipulation. It wouldn't surprise me if there was still something more nefarious going on but so far my gut feeling is mostly that people who trade commodities are just so detached from the people that actually have to buy and use those commodities that they don't understand the cliff we've already jumped off. They just feel the fun weightless sensation and don't realize there's a bottom.

I’m only peripherally aware of what this means. Do you have time to explain it further?

Wait until refiners cut production to force the future to pass the physical prices.

I’m shocked

It hasn’t exactly been subtle

Been trying real hard to not think about that

How I felt when Trump started the Canada annexation routine lmao

I heard someone say they won the war on day 1,2,3,4,5,6….

Congress seems pretty confident it will be over in the next two weeks, so that's cool I guess. Wonder what happens then, does Trump just f*** off or do we have a constitutional crisis?

Quick in and out!

You'll never convince me otherwise that the reason why that movie bomb so heavily was because so many people saw themselves in it and didn't think it was funny or quite frankly didn't get it that it was about them. Seriously

Per clothing item cost. Each sock charged individually.

*Literally tuesday morning* I dropped several thousand on a Euro-trip in August to chase the solar eclipse. I think I'm gonna be fucked.

Lovely place. Go visit Polignano a Mare. Easily of the prettiest places I’ve ever visited

I have a ton of intra-Europe trips planned for this summer. 🤷

The topic of oil is a bit more complex than people think. There are 2 problems at play here. **1) Not all crude is created equal!** There are essentially different blends of crude, and skilled petrochemical engineers might even be able to tell you where a crude is coming from just by the viscosity and smell. There are classifications, the most common one being the density (light/medium/heavy) and sulfur content (sweet/sour) Sweet crude has low sulfur, sour has high sulfur. Light crude has mostly short hydrocarbon chain lengths, meaning its heavier leaning on the gases (methane, buthane...), naphta (mostly for chemicals), and gasoline Heavy crude has mostly long chains, so it leans on the heavy oils, bunker oil, lubricants, and some heavy diesel. Medium leans more towards kerosene and diesel. Because of all that... **2) Refineries are usually optimized for a certain type of crude.** So here we get a small irony, the US is a big exporter of crude as they produce large quantities of light-sweet oil, however their own energy needs are based a lot on heavy sour because that is what most US refineries are optimized for! Now a refinery being optimized for X blend but getting a different blend can have problems ranging from "it runs very badly" up to "it will literally break the refinery" If you put these 2 problems together we get to the critical part. Kerosene would, as i stated, need medium blends to run most efficiently. \~45% of these comes from the gulf (ironically called "arab light"). 40% from Russia (ural blends). Europe sanctioned russian oil and made up for the disruption by relying on the gulf for medium blends directly, but also for heavy blends which were then mixed with light blends (US, north sea, nigeria) to be able to run european refineries. The light blends are still there, but the heavy ones missing is the problem. In short, it would be like making Rum & Coke, but you only have coke. And as i said earlier, the absence of medium blends (due to russia sanctions and hormuz blockage), and heavy blends for mixing (due to the hormuz blockage) is most negatively impacting heavy fuel/heating oils, diesel and kerosene.

That business failed, it never took-off.

He’s a pilot

We have empathy. We just lack a few carriers to protect cuba from the orange calamity.

It breaks my heart what is happening in Cuba. Are there any aid organizations that are legitimate? I want to help but I’m afraid that what I send won’t make it to the people in need.

No, they're not tired of winning yet.

His supporters don't care, they've never left their county.

Yeah, i’m leaving for Europe in… 6 weeks

Absolutely tone def

There's no realistic alternative for airplanes.  Zero- carbon air travel looks like ground carbon capture stations and planes still burning jet fuel. Hydrogen can't be stored volumetrically densely enough to fit in an airplane, nuclear aircraft are a horrifying idea from a safety perspective, and anyone who tells you battery electric is feasible for the length of journey people actually fly for has no idea what they're talking about. Your point that overall this should accelerate the transition to renewables is true, but we would need to completely break our understanding of physics to get non-petroleum based long distance air travel.

Lots of things can’t be replaced easily. How do you make a phone that doesn’t require fossil fuels? Aspirin? Soap? Clothes? Some alternatives come from plants, plants need fertiliser, which comes from fossil fuels too (not to mention massive water usage).

this reads like an AI generated comment

Thanks ChatGPT

Just in time is so f****** stupid. It ignores the basic experience of living on earth. all it takes is one butterfly wing flap for the whole house of cards to come down. It is prioritizing marginal profit over the stability of the system.

How much jet fuel do they usually have on hand? They don’t really make any except a bit in Norway and it’s expensive to store, I would have expected that they only keep a few weeks or months stored.

I have no idea how much fuel that is, 6 weeks sounds quite a lot all ready!