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General Mar 18, 2026 at 8:27 PM

Betting on the Oscars or the Super Bowl halftime show would be banned under new prediction market bill

Posted by businessinsider


https://www.businessinsider.com/murphy-casar-bets-off-prediction-markets-government-actions-2026-3?utm_source=listnook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=insider-entertainment-sub-post

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ChaoticSenior Mar 18, 2026 +104
Stop calling it a prediction market! It’s gambling.
104
SumpCrab Mar 19, 2026 +3
Yep, and it's just a way for companies to separate fools from their money.
3
HenryDorsettCase47 Mar 20, 2026
Fools have been separated from their money since the dawn of time. That will never change and there’s no law that man can institute that will prevent it. I find the people up in arms about prediction markets to sound weirdly puritanical. Like teetotalers howling for the eighteenth amendment, or the Bureau of Narcotics claiming marijuana induced violence and criminal insanity. It’s a free country and you can’t police people’s vices. Let them go to hell however they see fit.
0
SumpCrab Mar 20, 2026 +1
Sure, but let them go to hell without being scammed, or preyed upon. One of the benefits of legalizing booze or drugs is that legalization also comes with some consumer protections. But that's not what's happening with gambling. These companies are running wild with little to no guardrails. At least with other vices, we acknowledge them as a vice, calling gambling a "prediction market" is disingenuous and whitewashing.
1
P1xelHunter78 Mar 19, 2026 +1
Yep. It’s completely transparent and frankly ridiculous it’s being allowed to continue. It’s gambling. It reminds me of a much larger scale (and much better funded for bribes) version of a gambit a frat house at my alma mater tried for a couple of weekends. When the cops finally broke up the place for underage beer sales the: “we’re only selling cups” argument didn’t work. “Prediction market” is really just the same thing.
1
Not_software1337 Mar 19, 2026 +1
I predict it will exacerbate gambling addictions, especially when the dealer is in your pocket.
1
Basic-Record-4750 Mar 18, 2026 +55
Ummm. What about betting on elections? Or voting? Or any f****** thing government related? Allowing any kind of gambling on anything related to the government is blatantly transparent corruption. Where’s that law?
55
Old_Magazine_69 Mar 19, 2026 +6
Nope. No betting on halftime shows and the problem is compeatly solved. No problems here. End of story.
6
businessinsider Mar 18, 2026 +11
**From Business Insider’s Bryan Metzger:**  If two lawmakers on Capitol Hill get their way, making prediction market bets on the Oscars or the Super Bowl halftime show would be illegal. "If you bet on who's performing at the Super Bowl Halftime Show, and lose your money to someone who controlled the answer, you're getting ripped off," said Democratic Rep. Greg Casar of Texas. "Wouldn't the government protect consumers from markets that were transparently rigged?" said Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut. "The people who benefit in these markets are always the powerful." Murphy and Casar introduced a bill on Tuesday that would ban a slew of prediction markets currently offered by platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Dubbed the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, the bill would ban prediction market trading on the following: * terrorism, assassination, and war; * non-financial government actions in general; * events where individuals know or can control the outcome. [Read more about the bill.](https://www.businessinsider.com/murphy-casar-bets-off-prediction-markets-government-actions-2026-3?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=insider-entertainment-sub-post)
11
mishma2005 Mar 18, 2026 +3
Add geopolitical skirmishes (Iran War)and elections and it’s a start
3
DavidLivedInBritain Mar 19, 2026 +3
I’m fine with having to go to a location to do it but being able to do it from phone is so destructive
3
mattyGOAT1996 Mar 19, 2026 +2
Great because Kalshi and Polymarket are gambling
2
suff0cat Mar 19, 2026 +2
It still blows my mind that these places not only allow betting on professional wrestling, they straight up sponsor the events. Like, what’s to stop the talent from feeding results to a family member so they can magically place all the winning bets like Biff Tannen with the Sports Almanac? At least all the “weird” bets are still usually on something where there is still a degree of randomness and uncertainty to the outcome. Not a scripted show that’s more about choreography like Dancing With The Stars than an actual skill based competition.
2
bags-of-sand Mar 19, 2026 +2
It happened in baseball. Baseball has a way too close relationship with sports gambling companies. An elite pitcher got popped for throwing [uncompetitive pitches](https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/I4vfxrbedb), investigators used this specific pitch because the contact person placing the bets texted a comment about losing money on it
2
Bishopjones2112 Mar 19, 2026 +2
But elected government officials can trade stocks and make millions from their positions of power influencing law and knowing what’s happening within government. Cool
2
[deleted] Mar 19, 2026 +5
[deleted]
5
PressureMuch5340 Mar 19, 2026 +3
I wouldn't consider what the politicians do in the stock market "gambling. "
3
thedoommerchant Mar 19, 2026 +4
Right, there’s nothing to lose when they get tipped off. Insider trading should be a felony punishable by life in prison.
4
PressureMuch5340 Mar 19, 2026 +2
Shit, I would be happy if they lost their seat.
2
RogueTobasco Mar 19, 2026 +1
The fact this is ok but I can’t just bet the moneyline legally is so annoying
1
dj_ethical_buckets Mar 19, 2026 +1
Whatever, some new "prediction market" will open in China, or the Phillipines, or Russia, or where ever. Cant be stopped
1
0694U Mar 19, 2026 +1
Sounds like draft kings lobby is doing their job trying to dominate this market. You can bet prop bets on draft kings and fan duel that are literally the same thing the color of Gatorade, how long will the Star-Spangled Banner be, who will catch the first pass etc. All human controlled!
1
theHip Mar 19, 2026 +1
Those are regulated though, prediction markets aren’t.
1
0694U Mar 19, 2026 +1
Again, it’s all about money so if they tax them, everything will be fine
1
alternatingflan Mar 19, 2026 +1
Then what is crypto? Or the stock market? Or the currency exchange? or….
1
Tasty_Gingersnap42 Mar 19, 2026
Not that im defending polymarket or anything here, but why are people all up in arms.over and not Draft kings or the million other sport betting apps?
0
chimatt767 Mar 19, 2026 +3
Unless you think sports are all rigged there is a huge difference. People know who wins the Oscars ahead of time. People know the set lists of halftime shows (I’m assuming that’s what the gambling is on?). So that is not gambling if you know the final outcome. Same thing for other things that they allow “gambling” on.
3
nicspace101 Mar 19, 2026 -2
You're not letting Darwinism do its job. Like the guy who invented the seat belt.
-2
formerNPC Mar 19, 2026 -3
Let people throw their money away if they want. I’m sick of these politicians telling people what is good for them. The proceeds are taxed so what’s the problem!
-3
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