With China dominating commercial production of drones they will overwhelm any countries air defense system.
27
PhysicallyTenderMar 28, 2026
+6
Those drone shows are quite a show of force.
6
monotvtvMar 28, 2026
+71
People are focusing on the cost angle, but the real point is volume. More drones, more pressure, harder to defend against.
71
TWVerMar 28, 2026
+24
Indeed.
This is to overwhelm air defenses in the initial attacks, acting either as lightning rods to divert fire from the manned attackers and/or to be a cruise missile with a strike target (i.e. predetermined static air defense radar and missile sites, air base taxi- or runways, etc.) if not shot down in a secondary role.
To me, moving these drone jets near the Strait doesn’t seem like a standard exercise measure, but one intended for military build-up.
Xi might believe the time to strike is now, given the US being tied up in Iran and that war also impacting China’s strategic oil reserves (needed for war).
24
HowaboutnopersMar 28, 2026
+39
As someone who has lived in both China and Taiwan, the real point here is Xi.
He wants his legacy to be 'uniting' China. He already steamrolled Hong Kong while that bozo was in office, and anyone claiming he's not going to attack for economic reasons doesn't understand his motives at all.
39
FMKitMar 28, 2026
+37
As someone from HK.... The HK police and the HK government gladly do it then self...
Half the city is anti CCP. But it never reach critical mass.
The pro business half don't want any disruptions. That's what happen during occupy central.
37
hesawavemasterrrMar 28, 2026
+15
The trick is to take over without affecting the citizen’s lives as much as possible. If they can’t feel it in their day to day lives, then they will begrudgingly accept it. My friend from Hong Kong is anti-CCP. But his overall reaction to the aftermath was more nonchalant that I would have guessed. His exact words were “(eye roll) As long as I’m not affected, then so be it.”
15
Moral-RelativityMar 28, 2026
+7
It’s controversial to say this but as you may know quite a few ppl in Taiwan recall the “model colony” era under Japan with nostalgia, despite all the typical colonial shit including forced assimilation. Not a fair comparison exactly but I kinda wonder if they feel being occupied by China is gonna be worse.
7
Duckbilling2Mar 28, 2026
+1
X intelligence
Xi
1
Belegor87Mar 28, 2026
+39
Drones made out of obsolete J-6 fighters (Chinese copy of Soviet MiG-19) for overwhelming AA defense.
39
BluehibiscusEmpireMar 28, 2026
+15
That makes them fast right? Supersonic drones with a large payload seems quite a handful
15
Belegor87Mar 28, 2026
+19
They don't even have to have a payload to be useful.
>The key purpose of these drones is “to exhaust Taiwan’s air defense systems in the first wave of an attack,” a senior Taiwanese security official said.
>These drones don’t rank among China’s most threatening, advanced UAVs, but they would be costly to combat. The small, high-speed interceptor drones that Ukraine has been fielding in its war with Russia would be ineffective in shooting them down, said Layton. “Those J-6s would need a proper expensive missile.”
>Dahm estimated more than 500 of these aircraft have been converted to drones. The drone version of the J-6 is designated the J-6W.
>The fighter’s cannons and other equipment were removed and it was fitted with an automatic flight control system and terrain matching navigation technology, according to the board. The UAV made its first successful flight in 1995 and could be used as attack aircraft or a training target for fighter pilots, anti-aircraft guns, surface-to-air missiles or radar operators, the board said.
>The Chinese airfields closest to the Taiwan Strait where J-6 drones are based would be vulnerable to counter-attack from Taiwan and its allies in a conflict, Dahm said. “The idea is to launch all the drones in the first hours of a PLA operation,” he said.
19
XytakMar 28, 2026
+5
Our fancy expensive missiles are ineffective against c**** drones. Our c**** interceptors are ineffective against fancy drones. I’m tired, boss.
5
Another_Slut_DragonMar 28, 2026
+11
Getting rid of the pilot and cockpit armour is huge. Now you can get rid of dozens of systems to keep the meat comfortable. It increases your payload considerably.
11
BluehibiscusEmpireMar 28, 2026
+5
Yup. Modern war is getting out hand fast. We just have too many weapons that saturate a battlefield and civilian areas.
And Iran and Ukraine are live test areas for all sides of the conflict to gain exponential growth in killing more efficiently. So much so that attacking forces today can overwhelm the most sophisticated of defenses.
It’s going to be a silent arms race
5
Another_Slut_DragonMar 29, 2026
+2
Tanks are now basically useless. As are most large military machinery that moves on the ground. The drone wars are bringing budget military dominance to the middle nations.
Ukraine has proven that the big bulky army is a liability not an asset.
2
Guyfawkes1994Mar 28, 2026
+12
Interesting, these are former J-6’s (or F-6’s for exported models), which are license built MiG-19’s [reporting name “Farmer”], the first supersonic jet fighters in the Soviet Union. In Soviet aviation, this was quickly superseded by the MiG-21 “Fishbed”, but their production continued for a longer time in China, with as many as 4,500 models made. It looks like these drones (designation J-6W) were originally target drones, but if China’s converted them into OWA drones, that’s a ready supply of supersonic drones to supplement their missiles.
12
Puzzleheaded_Run21Mar 28, 2026
+79
I think the Chinese might be very near to starting an operation against Taiwan now that Trump is in power. Give him a few millions as gift or a housing project and he is in their pocket. Bad times for Taiwan
79
Denim_briefs_offMar 28, 2026
+62
A war over Taiwan is estimated to cause a 10% reduction to global GDP. Bad times for everyone!
62
IntelArtiGenMar 28, 2026
+66
> 10% reduction to global GDP
I even think this number is highly optimistic. I think most people underestimate just how much the world depends on China and Taiwan.
66
chubbysumoMar 28, 2026
+8
I think the world underestimates how this will absolutely blow up the AI bubble. Currently, over 80% of Nvidia and amd's Manufacturing capacity is in taiwan.
8
IntelArtiGenMar 28, 2026
+6
Yep, but the AI bubble is really a bubble so nobody would be surprised. When we can't manufacture cars, take planes, maintain phone / internet networks etc., then people will perhaps see how dependent we are. I'm not even sure Listnook could survive a crisis like that, surely more important things will be prioritized.
6
nailbunny2000Mar 28, 2026
+4
You think RAM prices are high now....
4
vdekMar 28, 2026
+36
A 10% reduction in gdp is a very abstract concept. You’ll have plenty of folks on Listnook cheering it on, since it’s anticapitalism. What it really means is a ton of people are going to starve and be out of jobs and livelihoods for a long time.
36
SHUT_DOWN_EVERYTHINGMar 28, 2026
+21
To put things in perspective, during the Great Depression (1929-1932), global GDP fell by an estimated 15%.
Great Recession of 2008-2009 was only a 1% drop.
21
True_Window_9389Mar 28, 2026
+8
It’s like how some people are hoping for a real estate crash/bubble pop, thinking it only means prices of houses drop so they can buy them, and there will be no other consequences for the country or themselves.
8
PariahbMar 28, 2026
+8
Even without that, the US is busy in a stupid war started by them with no end on sight, and wasting their resources there, resources that can't be used to defend Taiwan.
8
ArkassEXMar 28, 2026
+19
I think they'll at least wait until they build their own chip industry to rival Taiwan's.
Not only will this cushion the supply shock on their own economy from losing TMSC, the rest of the world's economy will face a tough choice on either accepting the new reality or losing TMSC AND not having access to Chinese chips.
19
noir_lordMar 28, 2026
+19
Realpolitik in that case makes it not a tough choice.
Access to silicon fabrication is the 21st century equivalent to what access to oil was in the 1930's (and why Japan hit America) and it's not just silicon, it's China, they make 51% of *everything manufactured by humanity*.
As tough as that is to accept for people, most countries will value their own economic security over Taiwan if it comes to it.
19
Nipun137Mar 29, 2026
+1
Obviously. Going to war with China for any country would mean destruction of their own economy. Taiwan is not that important in comparison.
1
TWVerMar 28, 2026
-5
From China’s perspective there are 2 compelling arguments to strike now, rather than waiting longer.
____
1. The US is tied up in Iran. That means less forces available to defend Taiwan, plus a significant depletion of missiles needed for that defense.
2. Due to that conflict, China’s access to oil is being threatened, causing them to dip in their strategic oil reserves, which are needed to sustain an annexation attempt of Taiwan.
____
Waiting longer will weaken China’s ability to sustain a prolonged blockade if oil reserves are getting depleted prematurely (prior to starting war).
-5
ArkassEXMar 28, 2026
+3
Sorry, but if world events are already depleting your oil reserves, then starting a war that will depleted them even faster seems completely insane, especially since taking Taiwan will not address this issue.
If the current war is teaching us anything, it's the importance of having clear goals as well as a tangible exit strategy. For China, things do not end with them taking Taiwan, they need to ensure their international position remains intact and the hit to their economy is recoverable.
The last thing they would want is if the war drags on for years with the Malacca Straits coming under blockade, prolonging the fuel crisis to critical levels. There is also the possibility of escalating into a world war with China becoming a pariah state, to never again enjoy their dominant position in international trade.
But more importantly, there is simply no reason they can't just wait. Trump has another two and a half years in office, and if the first one and a half years is any indication, he will use it to further wreck the US relations with it's allies. The PLAN is rapidly building new ships while the USN just can't seem to get their new designs right.
If China actual gets cutting-edge chips down and manages to push them out in scale, then I think it will be checkmate.
3
Nipun137Mar 29, 2026
+2
People talking about blockading Malacca strait as if it is a small thing. That is an act of war and you would have a direct war between 2 nuclear superpowers for the first time. After that point, it is very difficult to predict what happens next but one thing is for sure, US economy will get wrecked.
And which nations are stupid enough to sanction China? Again asking for their own economic destruction.
2
Ok_Kitchen_8811Mar 28, 2026
+10
Unlike Trump, China doesnt behave like a toddler in a supermarket who doesnt get his chocolate bar. I am pretty sure they play the long game. Why go to war and risk properity if you can just wait.
10
Hot_Cheesecake_905Mar 28, 2026
+4
China will not launch a war that will alienate many of its trade partners. It’ll be the status quo.
4
ThePlannerMar 28, 2026
+1
I think they have realized that there’s never going to be a better time than the next few months to make a decision about whether to attack. I don’t think they will attack, but the US is actively engaged in a war on the other side of the world and stripping assets from the Indo-Pacific, so militarily, this is the time.
1
007meowMar 28, 2026
+1
That or watch as we’re bogged down in Iran, depleting our arsenal, unable to appropriately defend Taiwan.
1
RODjijMar 28, 2026
-3
It won't be pretty as Japan will have to come to the aid of Taiwan as they would be potentially next anyways
-3
curorororoMar 28, 2026
-10
That's the problem.
The Chinese dont do bribes and tributes like the other countries.
If they did, they would've resolved their beef with trump 9 years ago.
To easy they could've presented a a gold statue for Trump but they even refuse to buy soybeans as a point of middle finger tactics.
If they invade Taiwan it will be after they told Trump about Su-Gong-Dee-Si
-10
p33k4yMar 28, 2026
+14
>The Chinese dont do bribes and tributes like the other countries.
Uh, ummm..., **what???**
14
allahakbauMar 28, 2026
-4
Used to, but anticorruption is working, less and less by the day. You can still do stuff if you know the right stuff but it’s getting harder.
-4
The_Boner_TempleMar 28, 2026
-1
I think there’s a very high chance they try to do it before he dies and gets replaced with someone mildly more competent. They’re probably looking for the sweet spot where he keeps f****** over the US and all allies and making the worst decisions possible and doing it before he’s actually dead, which is hopefully VERY soon.
-1
turb0_encapsulatorMar 28, 2026
+4
if Trump and Hegseth completely eviscerate American military readiness on this boondoggle in Iran, China may really do it.
4
WollastoniteMar 29, 2026
+2
old news, at least 10 years ago
2
SingleIndependence68Mar 28, 2026
+5
Does Taiwan need the nuclear bomb to warn china from attacking?
5
phiiotaMar 28, 2026
+21
Actually Taiwan was in the process of building a nuclear weapons program in the 70/80’s but the US CIA found out and forced them to dismantle it.
21
FeynmansWittMar 28, 2026
+8
They would get invaded if china had a whiff of it. Which they would because of the copious amounts of Chinese espionage assets in Taiwan.
Some people have mentioned attacking the 3 Gorges Dam which is also a bit of a meme. It’s in the center of China and defended, and you’d need a massive bomb to damage it which basically means needing a nuke anyway
8
1BeholderandripMar 29, 2026
+1
Any country without a nuke isn't a real country. They're a territory of the country they have a nuclear defense treaty with that provides a hollow promise of somebody else's nuke to protect them.
1
IntelArtiGenMar 28, 2026
-19
It would help but there are other ways to deter China. The Three Gorges Dam could be destroyed for example, but it's a price they may be ready to pay. Obviously nobody wants this to happen but when you talk about nuclear bombs it's the same thing
-19
moiwantkwasonMar 28, 2026
+11
Destroying the three Georges dam would kill millions of civilians instantly. It’s a war crime that Taiwan doesn’t want to commit, it’s a near nuclear bomb detonation scenario.
11
grilledcheeseburgerMar 28, 2026
+7
Millions? Tens to hundreds of millions of people would be affected downstream. A total collapse could kill over a hundred million people. It would be the most devastating attack in human history. A nuclear strike would actually be less impactful. I live in Taiwan, and destroying the dam would be a legitimate reason to glass the entire island. Nobody should f*** with that dam.
7
IntelArtiGenMar 28, 2026
Yes, I was replying to someone talking about nuclear bombs. Nobody wants to commit war crimes obviously, yet in wars war crimes happen and if China starts a war against Taiwan they could also kill millions of civilians.
All nuclear countries work the same ways, if I receive a nuclear bomb (you kill millions of my civilians), I'll attack you with nuclear bombs (I'll kill millions of your civilians). It's a war crime, yet it's how nuclear deterrence works and is accepted by everyone, at least for the 5 countries which legally own nuclear weapons. The hundreds / thousands of nuclear bombs are almost all made to commit war crimes / target cities. China is using this decade to build 100 more nuclear bombs per year, which would still let them with less bombs than in the US/Russia nuclear arsenal. When we talk about nuclear deterrence, we talk about commiting war crimes.
nb: technically idk if it would kill "millions of civilians instantly", it would kill a lot but hopefully they could have the time to evacuate most people (it could take hours / days for the water level to rise), something more difficult with nukes because in this case it's really instantaneous
0
moiwantkwasonMar 28, 2026
+4
Yeah and it would guarantee China retaliating with a nuclear bomb on Taiwan and Japan, especially Japan if Japan intervenes.
4
IntelArtiGenMar 28, 2026
-3
And Japan could make nuke and retaliate (it's a well known nuclear-threshold state): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapons_program
> It is unique among non-nuclear weapons states in that it possesses a full nuclear fuel cycle and plutonium stockpile, as part of its civilian nuclear energy industry, and advanced developments in the industries necessary to make nuclear weapons.
Nukes don't solve all military problems, it's been a fact since WW2. The US wanted to use it against NK and understood it was a bad idea. Russia probably understands it's a bad idea in Ukraine. Hopefully the US understands it's a bad idea in Iran. And this scenario where China would nuke Japan, again, is also the same bad idea.
It's a Pandora's box: you open it, you better be prepared to receive nukes. If you start a war and can't accept defeat by conventional means, you're the biggest loser humanity has ever known. Even the US, which started a lot of wars, never used it when they lost these wars.
If they can't handle losing without ending up using nukes, they better not start the war, or accept how far it could go for them and everyone.
Using nukes against countries which don't have the nuke because you're losing against them in a war you started is probably the worst thing a country could do, for them and for humankind.
-3
Nipun137Mar 29, 2026
+2
Nonsense. First of all Taiwan doesn't have the ability to destroy Three Gorges dam. You cannot destroy such a structure with a conventional bomb and Taiwan doesn't have nukes. And secondly, if somehow Taiwan manages to destroy it, China is not going to be like 'Oh it was not nuclear so I cannot use nukes eben though millions have died'. They will nuke Taiwan out of existence.
Imagine if Taiwan has nukes and China is invading them conventionally and winning. Would Taiwan not use nukes because China hasn't used yet in this scenario? Of course, they will use it even if they are losing conventionally. So your point makes no sense.
2
curorororoMar 28, 2026
+6
I question the ability of Taiwan to strike at a dam in the heart of China
6
AlexexyMar 28, 2026
+1
There's also multiple dams all along the river to mitigate the damage of the three gorges failing.
It would take multiple attacks on multiple sites.
1
IntelArtiGenMar 28, 2026
-3
I also question it, but I wouldn't bet the biggest dam on Earth on this, even if they had 0.1% chance to do it.
I'm sure you could question my ability to run faster than Usain Bolt but would you bet the homes and jobs of millions of people on it? It's the question China must ask itself before starting a war.
I mean hopefully, when countries don't start war, it's not just because they think it could be bad for them. In a perfect world we're obviously not living in, they would also care about their ability to achieve their goals without killing people and cause suffering even when its their enemies who suffer. So far China managed to do that well compared to many other countries, which is also probably how they're able to develop so fast economically. Not spending billions in wars helps a lot.
-3
stickfigureMar 28, 2026
-2
The gov. in Taiwan wants to be the official gov. for the entirety of China - this would be political suicide :/
-2
teachersecretMar 28, 2026
-7
It's 700 miles and Taiwan has a decent sized airforce with modern fighters. The F-16 does 1500mph, so, at any point China is about half an hour from that thing going boom.
It would be apocalyptic for Taiwan to do that, of course, but from a 'can they' perspective, I think the answer is probably yes.
-7
moiwantkwasonMar 28, 2026
+6
China has really good air defense system, flying 700 miles into China is hard not to intercept.
6
teachersecretMar 28, 2026
-6
That's why I said it would be apocalyptic. I have no doubt that Taiwan could punch enough aircraft into Chinese airspace to pull this off, but it would likely take most of their air force and the result would be absolutely devastation at home.
Maybe China could stop it, but there really isn't much time to scramble fighters, man more AA, deal with low-flying threats that are blasting across the straight on a suicide run. It's a hard problem no matter how you look at it, and you know that Taiwan has spent time designing that mission for success.
I doubt it'll ever happen, but there you go.
-6
Altruistic_Neat7996Mar 28, 2026
+1
China is winning, idk if USA can catch up. Your leaders are happy enough to be despots over their own people than to project dominion or even something simple like trade relations. Big F for america.
1
Political_breedsMar 28, 2026
-8
Congratulations everybody! Chinese bullying their neighbors, Canada downplaying because we have to turn our backs to America at all costs! 🤔
-8
WaPeoeraltuMar 28, 2026
+8
If China parking jets in their own country is bullying then your country doing special military operations 50 miles from China's border must be an aggression for an invasion.
8
Political_breedsMar 28, 2026
-12
We are not trying to fight over Whataboutism in here. The point is Chinese jets turning drones near Taiwan is a pretty malicious act.
-12
ScarletViolinMar 28, 2026
+4
The prevailing hope is that China is a cooler head than the US and so far they have been. But the US is definitely informing China that a superpower can pretty much do whatever it wants with any country’s sovereignty so you never know…
4
1BeholderandripMar 29, 2026
+1
> and so far they have been.
They've been raising hell in the surrounding water for years now. One dude even lost a finger.
The reason they haven't launched an invasion into other countries like America isn't because they're less violent. It's because they currently lack the power to do so. It's only a matter of time until that changes.
1
d1andonlyMar 28, 2026
-2
Jets-turned-drones?
Like remotely controlled jets?
-2
MaerosMar 28, 2026
+2
You didn’t even have to read the whole article, just the first sentence of the article would have confirmed this for you
2
XytakMar 28, 2026
+3
Is it normal for Listnookors to click into an article and away from the app?
71 Comments