After an unusually freezing winter with erratic weather.
Sure sounds like this is getting more extreme and unpredictable.
Almost like the planet is changing in an Inconvenient way.
117
Gimme_The_LootMar 31, 2026
+21
Seems like we might all have to come to terms with [An Inconvenient Truth](https://youtu.be/Bu6SE5TYrCM?si=6Ne7oU7SN2tZxJQK)
21
Propeller3Mar 31, 2026
+4
The El Nino-Southern Oscilation is actually highly predictable:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/how-good-have-models-been-predicting-enso-21st-century
"dynamical models are excellent at predicting the start of El Niño events up to a three-month lead (they are accurate more than ~60% of the time)"
4
TemporaryUser10Mar 31, 2026
+26
The article literally says it predicts them at 40% with a six month lead time. That's less than a random guess
26
SnlxddMar 31, 2026
+7
It’s not less than a random guess. They’re predicting the timing of when it starts, not a yes/no of if it will occur.
7
BlacqanSilverSunMar 31, 2026
+1
Bing Bing! W*****!
1
_your_land_lord_Mar 31, 2026
+4
Sex Panther levels of success.
4
Propeller3Mar 31, 2026
+1
But also: "dynamical models are excellent at predicting the start of El Niño events up to a three-month lead (they are accurate more than ~60% of the time)"
This accuracy improves greatly at 2 and 1 month lead times. My local area forecast is not nearly that accurate.
1
ImremanMar 31, 2026
+3
Nice to see the ENSO-blog linked!
It's always very interesting posts and I can recommend everyone to read it.
3
GunsensualApr 1, 2026
+1
>The El Nino-Southern Oscilation is actually highly predictable
Except it wasn't. They just replaced the index this year because accelerating global warming broke the old model's ability to adjust baseline.
1
TheTrollerOfTrollsApr 1, 2026
I think the point was that the weather during the event is unpredictable, not that the start of the event is.
0
ThroatWMangroveMar 31, 2026
+10
Has everyone been studying their Roland Emmerich films?
10
InsatiablePrismMar 31, 2026
+6
I wouldn’t want to be swimming near those sharks
6
SpiritualB0x3Mar 31, 2026
+7
Especially after they have been drinking coffee and doing cocaine
7
wrxninjaMar 31, 2026
+1
Wait which shark are doing Coke? Mediterranean? The Aussie sharks?
1
DavidsolsberyMar 31, 2026
+3
Just what we need in the midst of a global fuel crisis
3
Chemengineer_DBMar 31, 2026
+3
All other tropical storms must bow before El Nino!!
3
catsbeforebrosMar 31, 2026
+2
At what point does "unusual heat & erratic weather" simply become "*heat & weather*"?
2
flazisismussMar 31, 2026
+3
In the West it seems like El Nino always brings record breaking heat and drought. La Niña also always brings record breaking heat and drought. Normal years also always bring record breaking heat and drought.
3
GraeWraithMar 31, 2026
-2
As opposed to??
-2
sandm4n_RSMar 31, 2026
+8
el Nina, the chill sibling of el Nino.
8
ChanceryTheRapperMar 31, 2026
+11
La Niña
11
SpiritualB0x3Mar 31, 2026
+5
Where did she go?
5
beardbeakApr 1, 2026
+1
Better watch out for La nina, and tio fayo, dont forget tio gordo and tia prima. Can I roll my eyes further? Lets find out… oh no it’s cruda grande in all her walk of shame glory.
1
[deleted]Mar 31, 2026
-1
[deleted]
-1
Long-Draft-7128Mar 31, 2026
+6
More heat means more power for hurricanes https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/link-between-heat-and-hurricanes
6
VmaxxerMar 31, 2026
-32
Can it start already? It's frikkin freezing here!!1!
28 Comments