If the US economy actually goes into recession this year which industry do you think gets hit hardest and why?

I’m in manufacturing. Costs are almost double between tariffs for raw material, mostly steel, al, and the 80% increase last week for various resins. That and fewer people in the US can afford our stuff at the moment, and our export market collapsed due to anti American sentiment. I was told I’m being laid off in two months, and I think we are closing our us factory.

Yeah, my buddy works with steel in Huntington, WV and he said a lot of the labor guys are getting laid off.

Biden's economy was in ICU but slowly getting better, but Americans fired the Doctor and hired a quack. And here we are.

They were fooled into believing immigrants were the problem when they weren’t, that “liberals” were the enemy when they were not. The enemy of America has always been the top income earners who blame everything on everyone and everything else and fool those to vote for them.

Ai will never take my job, who else can cut and measure the same board 3 times and it still be wrong other than me!

At some point, all of these podcasters are going to see their revenue dry up, unless they truly are funded by Russia, etc.

If you qualified for 0.9 you probably still can at some dealerships. Carmax is NOT where you go if you can help it.

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Ain’t this the truth. I bought a Subaru last summer and went to two dealerships. Lots literally FULL of outbacks. The first one didn’t have a base model to show me and the second one had ONE base trim on the lot, if I wanted a different color they would have had to order it.

Bingo. 1. Republicans shit the bed. 2. Democrats clean it up. 3. People complain that the Democrats should have cleaned it up faster, or stopped Republicans from shitting the bed in the first place. 4. People vote Republican because of Democrats' perceived failure. 5. Rinse and repeat.

Yep, the flippers and airbnb'ers will get no tears shed from me.

Yes it was great in the early days now it’s a shit show

Watch the costs exceed the income for 6 months solid and I bet they change their tune...

Actually I think this year we're tripling our potash sales to places like mercosur, Indonesia and China. I might mixing that up with our nickel or bauxite or ore or natural gas or uranium or diamonds or... I forget, it all gets hard to track. Anyway, our defence spending is up to 2% already and headed for four, in addition to new infrastructure spending like the TGV Toronto Montréal and ports and stuff.

JD Vance being involved with the AcreTrader app ([source](https://civileats.com/2024/09/18/jd-vance-invested-in-acretrader-heres-why-that-matters/)) makes me believe you 100%. When the Vice President was involved in a way of making it easier for investors to obtain farmland, you can guarantee that moves like tariffs on Canadian fertilizer, ICE raids on migrant labourers, and screwing up international fertilizer supply chains are devious and intentional.

A lot of farmers were in favour of immigration clampdown. Also there is apparently loans available from the federal government. I read about the launch of new site to help farmers find about the supports called ‘Only Farms’. Trump launched it this week beside a gold tractor at the White House. Edit: I find the whole so weird that you can’t satire it anymore.

I personally have seen tons of my Canadian friends stop going to the states.

As someone who visited Vegas in 2003 and again in 2022, they can get fucked. In those 19 years they invented "Resort fees" that equal room fees, fees for everything. With the "competition" (I know it's just a few super-hotel-groups) they can do better.

He’s gone beyond vibe torpedoing tourism. Calling Canada “the 51st State” has been a big f*** you to Canadians, so we’re giving a f*** you back to the UsA. This is why you shouldn’t elect loud mouth idiots, it’s bad for your businesses.

Orlando is 100% chained to entertainment and theme parks, so I imagine most people who live there have some connection with that industry. Vegas' economy has to be even more locked into the fate of their casinos because the hotels/restaurants/entertainment are the loss leaders for the casinos. Are all the locals connected with the industry or do you have a lot of people who move there for the 100 degree heat and the possibility of gambling 24/7? I can't see a town of gambling addicts and low-paid hospitality workers doing well when that industry has bad times.

I have cancelled two planned holidays and one business trip to the US. World is a big place, will go elsewhere for a bit until ya’ll sort yourselves out.

and the fact that Vegas now has a reputation of an expensive tourist trap.

Good. Vegas lost itself and became something it wasn’t meant to be. The whole model needs to be razed and rebuilt

I think Vegas is moving from a volume focus to a margin focus. It looks like the focus on higher spending customers and scare the lower spending customers away with pricing increases. It’s cheaper to satisfy ten customers that will spend twenty five thousand dollars in a weekend then it is to satisfy a thousand spending two hundred and fifty.

As per an NYT write up this morning, they are indeed. The very wealthy are still coming but visitors on a budget not so much. Canadian tourism declined after the 51st state rhetoric. It’s too expensive now for what you get.

I’ve been thinking the same thing recently. It’s not only the decrease in discretionary income but Vegas has gotten so damn expensive. I hate to be the old guy bitching about how much better it was “back in my day” but DAMN! I don’t go as often as a lot of people and got married young and never set foot in a strip club while there so don’t know how those prices have changed but everything else is through the roof and comps have gone to shit. Used to be able to play $25 b******** (even $5 back in the mid ‘80’s) for three or four hours and get a voucher for the buffet and not much more playing time needed for the on-site steakhouse. Last time I went it was almost impossible to get comped shit playing between $25 and $100 a hand. Gradually meant less and less because I started playing p****, anyway. They add on fees to almost everything and you need to go to a local Walgreens or CVS for drinks and snacks unless you want to be victimized for a warm Coke and a Snickers bar at the mini-bar. I did see an AMA by a girl who works at one of legal brothels and she said business is way, way down and I bet other areas are seeing declines as well. I know they have to make money but, as the saying goes, you can shear a sheep many times but skin it only once. The last time I went (maybe three years ago) I felt violated at checkout. I might go back for a residency show like the Eagles and my daughter wants me to take her to play p**** this year but that’ll be about it.

That’s honestly heartbreaking people see “just tourism,” but for small towns that’s literally their lifeline. A drop like that hits way deeper than most realize.

Bingo! I am one of these people. We used to treat ourselves every weekend to matcha lattes on our way to the dog park, and a light lunch with sausage for the dog on the way home. Lately we've just been going to the dog park and making c**** green tea/cooking at home

I recently read a great book about the Great Depression.  Hard Times, by Studs Terkel.  He interviewed hundreds of people about their experiences in the US in the 1930s, from hobos to government officials.  Every anecdote is told in the language of the interviewee. One of the many eye opening revelations was that the Depression was just more 'hard times' for Black Americans.  It wasn't a crisis for most of them because that was already their reality.  Most that were interviewed were surprisingly gracious and empathetic with the white folks who were suddenly joining them in poverty. It's probably the best history/nonfiction book I've read.

The post 2008 years were actually some great years for people that didn’t lose their shirts in the recession. And despite the circlejerk, a lot of reforms were implemented, so regular people shouldn’t be losing their shirts this time.

He’s Nero. Reincarnated as an orange turd.

Genuinely, it may be the slap in the teeth that wakens nations to their dependency on an expensive and finite resource. One day, we will run out of petroleum products. Well before that, it will become financially inconceivable to use on the scale that we currently do. I suspect that as we continue to see tangible harm done by obstruction of the status quo, nuclear and renewable will see a Renaissance of interest.

Yeah in his mind, we are not america, he is america. Now that he doesn't need the votes to get into office, he doesn't need to pretend anymore.

This is some conspiracy theory shit, but I think the inner circle of the Republican party knows full well that Trump has dementia and it's getting worse. What's more, he's starting to say and do things that are unpopular among people that Republicans actually care about. Because he's built a cult of personality they're hoping to hold onto that through the midterms, and they're also hoping to keep him in office until it's been two years so that Vance would be able to serve two full terms of his own. I think there's a chance that we see the 25th amendment used to remove Trump in late January or February of next year.