>Under the IMF's worst-case outlook, the global economy teeters on the brink of recession, with oil prices averaging $110 a barrel in 2026 and $125 in 2027.
>The IMF chose the most benign scenario for its World Economic Outlook "reference forecast," which assumes a short-lived conflict and oil prices normalizing in the second half of 2026, with an $82 per-barrel average for the year - well below Tuesday's benchmark Brent crude futures price of around $96.00.
>Just minutes after releasing the outlook, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said it may be already outdated. He told reporters that with continued energy disruptions and no clear path to end the conflict, the IMF's "adverse scenario" looks increasingly likely.
Oof, what are the odds this conflict ends by the end of this month ? I'd say not likely, even if it doesn't escalate.
Looks like we're headed for the "adverse" scenario.
25
Snakekekek4 days ago
+5
I’d say very likely. At the end of the day China wants their Iranian Oil, Iran wants to stop getting bombed, Trump wants out.
A resolution will be found one way or another.
5
AdamEgrate4 days ago
+12
I think the only wildcard here is Trumps ego.
12
CirnoWhiterock4 days ago
+12
I would argue that the wild card is Israel. This is the closest they've ever come to killing the regime in Iran, they are not gonna want to stop now.
12
-spicychilli-4 days ago
Markets can be irrational so it’s not the best indicator, but they’ve also been pricing in a peace deal no matter any negative sentiment that comes out. Makes me think that something will eventually be hammered out relatively soon.
0
jeffersonianMI4 days ago
+2
How is $110 their worst case scenario when spot prices are currently +$140?
8 Comments