India plans more seats for women in parliament, links it to ‘delimitation’

Here's my current understanding of the situation and a brief historical lesson for foreigners. Back in the 1970s to combat overpopulation fears, the Government of India started incentivising States to decrease their birth rates. As part of this, they froze delimitation for 25 years in order to not punish states which could best control their populations. This ended in the early 2000s, but the Government extended this by yet another 25 years, and this free expires this year(2026). Some noteworthy points: 1. The freeze was brought by the then ruling party, the Congress, during a period known as the Emergency(Government declared a National Emergency for no apparent reason, started democratic backsliding etc.) 2. However, the next Government, formed as a Unity Government of various Opposition groups who opposed the Emergency removed several Emergency era laws, but NOT the freeze on delimitation. 3. In the Early 2000s, the BJP led Government(Today, the BJP is the current ruling party as well) chose to continue this freeze on delimitation. 4. However, this new freeze allowed Constituency Boundaries to be changed within a State as per the 2001 census so long as the Total Seats within a State remain consistent with the 1971 Census. The Current Situation: 1. The Individual States have their seats distributed as per the 1971 Census. 2. Within a State the Constituency Boundaries are based on the 2001 Census. 3. The Delimitation Freeze will expire in 2026 and new Constituencies may be drawn on the basis of the First Census after 2026 unless a Constitutional Amendment pushes it further back. The Politics: 1. Census Delay: The 2021 Census was not conducted due to Covid-19...but then inexplicably delayed to this year. The likely reason is that this census will end by 2027, and will count as the first census after 2026, rather than the 2031 Census. Thus, new Constituency Boundaries can be used for the 2029 General Elections rather than the 2034 General Elections. 2. The Women's Reservation Provision is structured in such a way so as to only apply after the first Census and Delimitation after the Commencement of the Amendment. 2a. There are talks going about the Amendment having commenced recently(16th April). What it means is that the Date of Commencement in the Constitutional Amendment was upto the Government of India by Offical Notification. This is what has actually happened. The reservation of seats will ONLY happen AFTER a new Delimitation occries. (Explanation: If delimitation had occurred without the Government notifying this Act had commenced; Seats wouldn't have been reserved for women in that Delimitation) 3. What this has done is that Women's Reservation has been linked to Delimitation: so if the Opposition votes against or otherwise opposes the Delimitation then Women's Reservation doesn't occur. This gives PR material to the Government to portray the Opposition as 'Anti-Women'. 4. The Government also wishes to increase the number of MPs in Parliament, something that has remained constant since the last Delimitation in the 1970s. This is not an unreasonable move in my personal opinion, however this requires a Delimitation and we get to the benifits for the Government with the Delimitation. 5. The Benefits of Delimitation for the Government: The ruling BJP is very weak in South India, and South India is culturally and linguistically quite distinct from North India. The South having lower birth rates than the North since the 1970s, means that they will lose a significant percentage of control over Parliament should the latest census be used. This will be to the benefit of the ruling BJP who are weak in the South. Furthermore, BJP is strong in Urban Areas, and the population of Urban Centre has grown since 2001, when the last Delimitation occured(within States). What this means is that even if the Number of Seats for States is kept constant. The Ruling BJP benifits from Delimitation due to increase in Urban Seats! What actually happened? 1. The BJP introduced the 131st Amendment Bill(which would rather confusingly become he 107th Amendment Act of passed, confused the f*** out of me as well), which does 3 things: Increase the number of seats in Parliament, allow for delimitation before the 2026 expiry and on the basis of the 2011 Census, and enact Women's Reservation in Legislatures on the basis of this. 2. The Home Minister(in this Government basically the #2 after Modi), orally said in Parliament that they intend to keep the 1971 Census as basis for Delimitation of Seats to the States, but use 2011 for seats within a State. This will still be to the benefit of the BJP, however this is more defensible. 3. The Amendment doesn't actually specify the 2011 Census or that the 1971 Census will be used as the Basis of either Delimitation(to states and within each State), so this may well be a lie by the HM. 4. The Bill failed to pass in the Lower House by the requisite 2/3rds Majority, and even if it did, it would have been difficult to pass by a similar margin in the Upper House, and if it did that, it would require Ratification by half of the State Legislatures(this would be easy because the BJP controls half the State Legislatures). 5. However, this doesn't actually stop the 2026 Expire on the Freeze, and so the BJP can still start Delimitation after the census is complete in 2027, and this would enact the Women's Reservation Provision, but it will not increase the number of seats in Parliament. Is this Democracy Backsliding? (Personal Opinion) 1. All of this will be fully Constitutional and would only increase Democractic Representation. 2. The two States which will gain the most are: UP and Bihar. Neither of these are guaranteed BJP Strongholds. Case in point: these were the 2 of the states that cost BJP a majority in the 2024 General Elections. 3. To an extent the opposition to this is driven by Bigotry towards 'Backwards' UP and Bihar. 4. That being said, the Southern States do have a point. They DO contribute more to the economy and to Taxes, and they did do a better job of controlling their populations. This does feel as a betrayal to them. (Though it should be noted that ALL States except Bihar have a fertility rate close to or below 2 at this point.) 5. So, this is really a question of the Federal Structure vs Individual Democracy. 6. The best solution in my opinion, is to carry out the delimitation as per the latest census for the lower House, while creating greater representation for the Southern States in the Upper House and giving State Legislatures more power over their policy and revenue. (The Indian Upper House is ALSO based on Population (& thus the 1971 census); deviating from that might be a possible compromise.)

Such a shit deal for us man, if this delimitation goes through we south literally lose our representation in the union government, already we're severely under represented now they can just win all the Hindi belt State and form a government. Now we're getting punished for controlling the population, this can lead to severe repercussions in the future. Already our state is under funded for which. Man sometimes this government does some real good stuff and other times does obscure political tactics like with holding our funds. Even worse thing is pushing for a vegetarian diet in Karnataka schools.

This could stir up separatist moments in India