On the bright side, if Iran is conceding the Strait, their primary source of leverage in negotiations, then it is a sign that the conflict is hopefully approaching a diplomatic resolution.
327
Traditional_Drama_912 days ago
+343
Problem is, they’re not conceding the strait. Ships still need to pass through the Iranian channel, check in with the IRGC navy, and ships linked to Israel may still be turned back.
This whole exercise appears to be Iran learning how to manipulate trump. Flashily announce the same shit you’ve already agreed to and he goes on a tear announcing that he’s reigning in Israel in Lebanon.
Edit: And they closed it again. Fell for it again awards are down the hall, to the right
343
Foreign_Cable_95302 days ago
+46
You’re right, looks like it’s open but once you’re in they could totally hit you with the options of “pay $2 million, turn around, or explode” while following their “coordinated route.”
But their leverage was pressuring the world economy so someone would come help them, or pressure the US off of them. Even if Israeli shipments are turned away, this marks a major concession of leverage at the negotiation table. But you’re right, things are still tense and Tehran has to agree to a deal, so maybe things wont end diplomatically as soon as I’d hoped.
46
Joddodd2 days ago
+33
The leverage was not pressuring the economy so someone would come help them, it was to pressure the economy so the US and Israel would back off. Similar but different.
And it is not a major concession of leverage, the leverage is still there. They may have removed the finger from the trigger, but the guns are still aimed at the strait.
What they have done is shown that they are willing to de-escalate, and abide by the negotiations. In other words, they are showing themselves to be rational.
Iran has also already shown that they are willing to close the strait, and that they actually can do it, it is not an empty threat. I would say they have more leverage now than before.
33
Traditional_Drama_912 days ago
+29
I think it’s much less of a concession than it appears, with all these ships passing so close to Iran they can essentially shut it back down at the drop of a hat.
Iran is now in the position where they can garner some international sympathy by letting shipping through, under the terms that they had already agreed to for a limited amount of time, while the US is now doubling down on its blockade.
29
Unlucky_Clover2 days ago
+9
I think you’re spot on
9
Vehlin2 days ago
+7
They only get to play that card once tho. They’ve said that the straight is open as long as Israel stops attacking Lebanon. Which clearly puts the onus on others
7
TheKeenMind1 day ago
+7
Yeah I mean
Getting Israel to stop invading other countries is easier said than done
7
Traditional_Drama_911 day ago
+2
They already appear to have close it again lol
2
miseconor2 days ago
+3
Iran were ready for a cease fire until Israel continued to bomb Lebanon. Trump putting an end to that presumably got us back here. That’s what they were using the leverage for
3
Justwaspassingby1 day ago
+1
We need an app or website with a sign showing when the Strait is open or closed again. I’m losing track at this point.
1
Mr_Pricklepants2 days ago
-3
It's much easier to end a war if you started it first!
-3
Traditional_Drama_912 days ago
+7
And he’s desperate to end it. $20 billion in exchange for Iranian enriched uranium is being floated and trump will call it a bigly win
7
No-One21232 days ago
+7
Trump literally tore up his own trade deal with Canada. No diplomatic resolution is possible with Trump
7
NeonGKayak2 days ago
+7
They’re probably calling US bluff. If they allow ships through then it’s the US that is the problem blocking everything
7
foghillgal2 days ago
+2
They\`re puttng the blame on the mess on the US, like it should be.
2
[deleted]2 days ago
+3
[deleted]
3
MobileArtist13712 days ago
+1
> As for Iran, if you’re going to regularly threaten to destroy another nation
So don't be the boy who cried wolf when a clown is in office cause the clown might listen? Laughs in North Korean.
1
ignatious__reilly2 days ago
-14
Iran will control the Strait forever. They stated that. And will charge a toll. This is a massive win for Iran
And reports say US will unfreeze $20 Billion in assets to Iran
-14
Taxing2 days ago
-1
Iran is trying to survive, there is no winning, it’s about trying to manage how severe their losses are. If you think Iran is winning, you’re delusional.
-1
JesterMarcus2 days ago
+10
Surviving is winning to them. They just have to wait us out. The Taliban wasn't winning the Afghan war until they suddenly did.
10
Taxing2 days ago
+2
Hopefully they don’t survive, they are a horribly repressive regime.
2
JesterMarcus2 days ago
+3
Yes they are, but the steps necessary for us to cause them to collapse aren't being taken and are too costly anyway. They are going to survive this war, and have effectively embarrassed the US by doing so. We hit them with some of our best non-nuclear shots and they are still standing. That's them winning in their eyes.
To say they are losing badly is like saying Vietnam lost against the US. Sure, we hit them harder than they hit us, we killed and injured more of them than they killed and injured of us, but we weren't willing to finish that war because it wasn't worth the cost. Same applies here.
3
ignatious__reilly2 days ago
+3
If Iran takes controls the Strait and has full sovereignty over it from now until forever, and charge tolls, they came out on top.
That’s a fact. And no twisting of words is going to change that.
3
MobileArtist13712 days ago
+2
> Iran will control the Strait forever. They stated that. And will charge a toll. This is a massive win for Iran
> If Iran takes controls the Strait and has full sovereignty over it from now until forever, and charge tolls, they came out on top.
No need to twist your words. You already conceded with the leading "if" on your very next comment.
2
fury4201 day ago
+2
The normal shipping channels through the narrowest choke point of the strait are literally in Omani waters.
2
Taxing2 days ago
+1
If my grandmother had wheels she’d be a bicycle. This is nonsense. Iran has been bent over and clobbered. If it survives then it should consider that a win. Any notion that somehow Iran is stronger now or will come out of this stranger than before is pure cope with a heavy side of delusion.
1
Catch_0222 days ago
+1
It's the threat of mines/drones/missiles that closed the strait.
Iran can easily declare it closed again by threatening ships.
1
trashpolice2 days ago
+1
Come on they are not conceding their main bargaining chip
1
Aliensinmypants2 days ago
+1
This is exactly what happened last week though, and Israel immediately broke the ceasefire. If (when) they break the ceasefire again, Iran will likely close it again. Bibi needs this conflict to drag on to have any hope of avoiding trial, and the US seems to be completely beholden to Israel
1
Odd_Equipment28672 days ago
+1
At this point it’s just a fart sound in the void.
1
Pure_Growth45282 days ago
-4
If I was American I would be mad about Israel dragging you to a war, but since half of government is from there it won’t happen
-4
wswordsmen2 days ago
+15
Israel didn't drag Trump anywhere they made the same pitch they made to the last 3 presidents and Trump was the only one dumb enough to believe them.
15
No_Palpitation1332 days ago
-10
Looks like they folded 😏
-10
Major_Ad1382 days ago
+6
Trump is desperate to end it. Oh you meant Iran? LOL oh boy
6
S1gorJabjong2 days ago
+360
Something smells fishy here. Someone's about to backstab someone.
360
nosayso2 days ago
+82
It's just Friday, rallying the market a bit for the appearance of stability over the weekend before things fall apart again.
82
big-papito2 days ago
+99
Yeah, I am not buying this. **Already** Iran is threatening to close the strait.
The wildcard here is Bibi. He has all the reasons in the world to sabotage this.
99
P0Rt1ng4Duty2 days ago
+38
You're not wrong, but trump will never *not* be a wildcard.
38
sirhackenslash2 days ago
+19
After screaming at them to open the strait he'll close it back down just because he's mad Iran got credit for opening it back up.
19
P0Rt1ng4Duty2 days ago
+5
I'm convinced his main goal of negotiations at this point is to stop them from posting any more Lego videos.
5
NameIsNotBrad2 days ago
+2
I cut the brakes! Wildcard, bitches! Whoooo!
2
Ultra_Metal2 days ago
+1
The Islamic Republic is also a wildcard.
1
P0Rt1ng4Duty2 days ago
+1
Yes and poking a wildcard for no apparent reason is what got us here.
Not a backstab if you have a history of doing it. That is a playstyle at this point.
17
Flower_Murderer2 days ago
+8
They're going for the Perfidious Beast achievement.
8
moomshiki1 day ago
+3
> Strait of Hormuz is open to all commercial ships during the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
That's the 10 days ceasefire started from Thursday, 16 April, meaning it will end in April 26.
3
Drongo172 days ago
+8
I refuse to believe that the fine upstanding countries of USA, Iran, or Israel would ever sink to that level.
8
Dry_Ass_P-word2 days ago
+1
Right after markets close though.
1
RightC2 days ago
+1
Gotta wait for markets to close
1
heart_of_osiris2 days ago
+1
Not to say there are any good actors here, but America hasn't taken the knife out since the start.
1
[deleted]2 days ago
-5
[deleted]
-5
Routine-Judge30202 days ago
+2
Do you mean Iran has the oil market in a choke hold?
Don't act like the usa had any plan going into this.
2
[deleted]2 days ago
-3
[deleted]
-3
No-Cryptographer74942 days ago
+310
So now that iran has opened the straoght, the us is blocking it?? What the f is going on there
310
IntellectuallyDriven2 days ago
+118
The US is only blocking vessels moving from and to(?) Iranian ports.
118
VagueSomething2 days ago
+22
Because they've NEVER targeted boats and then claimed they're something else before...
22
ohst8buxcp72 days ago
+96
The US isn't blockading the Strait. Just Iranian ports. Ships going elsewhere aren't subject to it.
96
Axin_Saxon2 days ago
-16
Thus in theory, buying Iran international sympathy.
To be clear, they shouldn’t get any, but it t is a well calculated move to shift blame for the continuation of the strait being “closed” onto the US.
-16
Templar-Order2 days ago
+26
The us is only blockading ships from Iranian ports or going to Iran, neutral ships can pass freely now
26
woodyus2 days ago
Isn't that blocking ships going to ch-eye-na though? Not sure they will appreciate that.
0
SolidusDave2 days ago
+3
well the US said a few days ago that Chinese ships are allowed to pass... in exchange for a big hug or something.
3
mriguy2 days ago
+7
By “big hug” I assume you mean licenses for some Trump family business to operate in China.
7
a_case_of_everything1 day ago
+1
Barf
1
Anxiety_Mining_INC2 days ago
+20
You fell for a headline crafted to cause controversy.
20
Gold-Researcher-54712 days ago
+2
but iran ships are still blocked
2
[deleted]2 days ago
+5
[deleted]
5
[deleted]1 day ago
+1
[deleted]
1
No-Cryptographer74941 day ago
+3
1 ship went through and it's one that goes to china.
It's just market manipulation.
3
m1kelowry2 days ago
+4
Reading comprehension is key
4
No-Cryptographer74942 days ago
+4
How can that be key when you hear a different version every day.
I have heard the turd say he will block all ships, heard him say he wants to block and toll it himself etc...
Electing a person isn't a toddler is key.
4
m1kelowry1 day ago
+1
That’s my point, instead of hearing random conflicting things, read unbiased sources such as Reuters carefully to understand what’s going on.
1
Lurkin6052 days ago
+4
Learn how to read?
4
LonelySwinger2 days ago
+1
Trump gave the US ships doing the blockade his personal bank routing number because he is still salty Iran was making those millions for each ship to pass and not him.
1
No-Improvement94552 days ago
+1
[ Removed by Listnook ]
1
Jabjab3451 day ago
+1
We're just going to go back and forth, and take turns who blocks it. In 100 years there will be traditional ceremonies handing off the duty of blocking off the straight, by then people will have long forgotten why it was originally blocked, but they block it nonetheless.
1
hanato_061 day ago
+1
straight up market manipulation Johnny
1
Sad-Excitement92952 days ago
+50
So who's gonna sail through first and see if it's open or closed?
50
itsFelbourne2 days ago
+31
The ‘Roya’, from the looks of it
Started underway basically right after the announcement and is leading the pack heading east to the strait
31
kraftdinnerwithsalsa2 days ago
+23
Godspeed Roya and safe travels
23
ichishibe2 days ago
+6
Sweaty palms
6
Gold-Researcher-54712 days ago
+6
Roya boat through the strait of Iran as the insurance company is sweeting bullets.
6
windingsand2 days ago
+7
Might as well go full throttle for as many ships as possible while it’s open
7
NameIsNotBrad2 days ago
+6
Yeah, there’s no way they’d sink a ship just for fun after saying it’s open. Just like there’s no way trump would call a ceasefire just to bomb them.
6
GrimHoly1 day ago
+2
4 hrs later looks to be good for those that were trapped in there including a cruise ship apparently
2
NameIsNotBrad1 day ago
+2
They very well may be operating in good faith, but with the number of times we’ve fucked them over, I’m not risking my life on that assumption.
2
GrimHoly1 day ago
+3
My biggest question is who tf took a cruise through the straight of Hormuz
3
Sad-Excitement92951 day ago
+2
Take a vacation and see the Iran War! So close you can feel the explosions! (We are not responsible for personal injury).
USN recruiter line.. I mean cruise line
2
Ixziga2 days ago
+71
> U.S. blockade still active
LMAO don't tell me that trump looked at Iran charging fees to let people through the strait and decided that was a wonderful idea to steal
71
Nerevarine912 days ago
+12
It’s a solid possibility
12
BRUTAL_ANAL_SMASHING1 day ago
+8
It’s a blockade only to and from Iranian ports.
Look at something more than just the headline, it makes you look incredibly lazy and in return very dumb.
No a clopen is when you close the bar down and then open like 6 hours later in the morning.
2
overandoverandagain1 day ago
+1
Yeah, even reading that word gave me a shiver
1
upandin91 day ago
+3
Great now Trump can stall to further manipulate the oil markets
3
Smokey_tha_bear90002 days ago
+19
I’m no expert, but I think this current state of the Strait may have been possible without blowing up a bunch of children in a school.
19
count_chocul42 days ago
+5
You sir *are* an expert!
5
xythrowawayy1 day ago
+6
Reading comprehension.
Trump and Iran have both said the strait is open.
The US blockade of Iranian ports, however, is still in effect. Those are two independent things.
6
1321986491 day ago
+1
You must not comprehend that one will not happen without the other.
1
Fantastic_Wash562 days ago
+5
It says they opened it to “All commercial ships” - however they’ve said in the past “it’s open to everyone except the the US”
I wonder if that’s true yet again today and why the US blockage continues, because they themselves are still denied access.
Just thoughts…
5
Idkmanitcouldwork2 days ago
+2
Still cleaning up the mines?
2
Zulmoka5312 days ago
+2
Hey, said in an earlier post this morning. There’s your Friday market manipulation right there in the open.
2
After-Snow58741 day ago
+2
It seems like there’s contradicting information at least as of 4:00pm ET today. And as usual it seems that Trump was overstating things significantly.
I’m stunned by how many people in here hang onto his word as gospel truth.
2
whooo_me2 days ago
+3
This whole thing has some major [Duck Season / Rabbit Season](https://youtu.be/17ocaZb-bGg?t=6) energy.
3
Nerupe2 days ago
+4
What a time to be alive.
4
Ted_Striker12 days ago
+4
\- Iran makes AI memes about Trump
\- Iran declares The Strait is open
\- U.S. says no it's not
\- Yes it is
\- No it's not
\- Yes it is
\- No it's not
What a WEIRD timeline we are in.
4
BRUTAL_ANAL_SMASHING1 day ago
+3
Only Iranian ports are apart of the American blockade.
It’s only weird because you just aren’t reading anything at listening to headlines and buzz words 👍
3
Ted_Striker11 day ago
Trump posting himself as Jesus, Iran making memes about Trump, and you think its only weird because I'm not reading anything?
0
Buzzinggg2 days ago
+2
1 month ago:
Iran: the straight is closed
US: open the straight!
Today:
Iran: the straight is open
US: close the straight!
2
BRUTAL_ANAL_SMASHING1 day ago
+6
Iran is the only country in the blockade right now..?
It’s a blockade of any ship going to or from an Iranian port.
Please god do not act dumb online for points on a site, read the articles and know what’s going on.
Trying to be act dumb to be funny online for internet points at the expense of your own knowledge and brain heath is not heathy for yourself.
6
Fantastic-Ear-21302 days ago
+4
Ummm … from what I’ve heard it is “clopen”. Also described as Schrodinger’s Strait. You don’t know if it is open or closed until you take a looksee. Someone is playing on the level of advanced physics here.
4
CoolAfternoon23402 days ago
+2
So the US blockade worked.
2
FunLife642 days ago
+7
Not really. Prob more so has to do with Israel’s ceasefire. Remember, the strait was supposed to be open when the us/iran ceasefire was agreed upon and Iran balked when Israel didn’t stop with Lebanon.
So now we are just at the point we were supposed to be a week and a half ago
7
boostsensei2 days ago
+2
Is it a trap? Insert "it's a trap" meme from Star Wars.
2
PutAutomatic25811 day ago
+2
Can we just blockade Trump instead? Keeping him away from any phones or devices just forever?
2
LeafTheTreesAlone2 days ago
-3
Iran is putting on the good guy image to put US on the spot
-3
ohst8buxcp72 days ago
+26
Iran is [weeks away](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-war-shattered-economy-means-it-has-an-urgent-reason-to-negotiate-43937f36) from economic collapse and is trying to deescalate to avoid it. They just gave up their blockade of the Strait while the US's blockade of their ports is still in place. That should tell you what the negotiating dynamic is right now.
26
AffectionateRub18572 days ago
+12
I also think US cut a deal with China on the side. They pressured Iran also
12
p33k4y2 days ago
+14
no no no, according to listnook Iran holds all the cards. so they have no need to deescalate. /s
14
SilveryDeath2 days ago
+6
> They just gave up their blockade of the Strait
[Iran re-closed the strait the day of the ceasefire on the 8th because they claimed the US and Israel violated it because Israel continued to attack Lebanon.](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/ceasefire-is-threatened-as-israel-expands-lebanon-strikes-and-iran-closes-strait-again) Iran and Pakistan both [said Lebanon was part of the ceasefire](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-04-09/ty-article/.premium/source-iran-and-pakistan-both-understood-lebanon-was-part-of-truce-with-u-s/0000019d-6ec7-da9b-a1dd-ffdf7ab00000), but the US and Israel said it wasn't.
So this is them getting in good PR by showing everyone else that they are good to their word, since they said they would open the strait if Israel stopped attacking Lebanon.
6
IntellectuallyDriven2 days ago
+1
The thing with these is its just ~~analysis~~ opinion. And for every opinion, is an opposing one - like this 👉 [Iran is prepared for a war lasting six months - Straitstimes](https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-prepared-for-a-war-lasting-six-months-but-constraints-will-come-from-its-population-china)
1
ohst8buxcp72 days ago
+3
Nothing screams opinion worth taking serious like the noted journal *checks notes* “Straits Times”!
3
Tarmacked2 days ago
-11
They’re not weeks away from economic collapse. They’re also not actually opening up the strait.
They’re making a move to portray the US as being the problem. Iran saying the strait is open and Trump saying it’s closed portrays the US as being the cause of the oil crisis. It’s probably not even reopened on the Iranian side and tanker movement itself was heavily constricted still leading into today.
This is geopolitics 101. Iran is playing Vietnam ball, they’re just playing out time.
China is also probably using them as a proxy war against the US as well, so there’s some bigger bargaining power behind Iran’s staunch position
-11
ohst8buxcp72 days ago
+11
>They’re making a move to portray the US as being the problem. Iran saying the strait is open and Trump saying it’s closed portrays the US as being the cause of the oil crisis
The US is not blockading the Strait. Just Iranian ports. That blockade is still in place.
>They’re not weeks away from economic collapse
No one can know for sure but experts on the situation agree. At the very least the are running out of storage capacity for the oil they can no longer export. Should they run out they'll have to shut down the wells which can permanently damage them. They do not have time on their side.
11
ApprehensivePay17352 days ago
They don't have time on their side if the escalation ladder isn't upped and the goal is to get to the other side in better shape. If iran is on the verge of collapse taking out the desalination plants and gulf oil facilities goes from irrational to rational.
0
ApprehensivePay17352 days ago
Tehran benefits from an operational pause way more then the US. Restock on c**** drones and missiles while the us can churn out 2 more interceptors while having to manage a navy that's so overworked they set fire to their own ship to get some shore leave.
0
Ultra_Metal2 days ago
-2
No, Iran is showing the world that it caved due to the US blockade destroying its main source of income: oil and gas sales.
-2
baltetc12 days ago
+1
Progress
1
physicsking1 day ago
+1
Get 6 months of oil through the strait in one weekend?
1
QFGTrialByFire1 day ago
+1
Its not open and confirmed by Iran that its closed just a few hours ago:
[https://x.com/mb\_ghalibaf/status/2045264713593114970](https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2045264713593114970)
"The U.S. President made seven claims in one hour, and all seven are false.
They did not win the war with these lies, and they certainly will not get anywhere in negotiations either
With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open"
1
____DEADPOOL_______1 day ago
+1
I think we've past the point of madness and we are now in Sparta.
1
jazza24001 day ago
+1
Maybe they are the market manipulators now
1
Nice_Warm_Vegetable1 day ago
+1
I DON’T GIVE A F*** WHAT “TRUMP SAYS”.
1
Axin_Saxon2 days ago
+1
So Iran single handedly just played their cards so that now the US is more in the wrong as seen by the rest of the world.
F*** Iran but I gotta say, well played.
1
nono37222 days ago
+2
Well this should last 10 minutes. Making someone open a strait while still blockading them for blocking the strait is a sure fire way to screw it up. What good does it do for them if they allow ships through? I wouldn't want to be the first ship.....
2
mxguy7621 day ago
+1
They need a stoplight on this MF strait
1
Borner7912 days ago
Now US will open it and Iran close.. musical straight
0
Nwah21121 day ago
1. Strait is open.
2. US bombs Iran.
3. Iran closes strait.
4. Trump praises Allah and threatens to nuke Iran if they don’t open strait.
5. Iran doesn’t open strait, Trump doesn’t nuke them.
6. Trump blockades strait.
7. Iran opens strait.
8. Trump continues to blockade strait.
wtf is going on
0
xythrowawayy1 day ago
+2
A lack of reading comprehension is what is going on. The strait is open. The US blockade is of Iranian ports, not of the strait.
2
GeshtiannaSG1 day ago
+1
The US is also blockading any ship that pays Iran. The only ships that dare to go through still have to pay Iran and go through their territorial waters even if they didn’t come from their ports.
1
xythrowawayy1 day ago
+1
Not true. The ships passing through today are paying no tolls.
1
No_Palpitation1332 days ago
-2
Listnook: PLEASE KEEP FIGHTING
-2
KazeNilrem1 day ago
Listnook was pretty clearly against trumps illegal war. So the "keep fighting " makes no sense. If anything, Israeli government is the one wanting to keep fighting.
0
ARazorbacks2 days ago
-1
So…
1) Strait is open and free
2) US/Israel attack, Strait is closed
3) US decides to blockade the Strait
4) Iran opens the Strait…and now it’s the US blocking oil shipping
5) Iran can close the Strait at any time still
Iran and Israel are literally shining a laser pointer at the ground and the US keeps jumping on the red dot.
-1
TarnishedAccount2 days ago
So we are back to where we were on 2/27 before Israel and USA did the sneak attack on 2/28?
0
ankerous2 days ago
+2
No, because the US is still blockading to intentionally hurt Iran.
2
Additional-Can91842 days ago
+2
And the Iran will close it. It’s a cool game.
2
Future_Mousse_3552 days ago
-2
I'm lost. Who is opening and who is closing? Maybe we need a third party to tell us.
Correct. That’s what the blockade would do and him being so unhinged I really think it would happen.
1
Powerful_Company_6821 day ago
And I'm sure his current advisors would love for that to happen and further isolate the US from its previous allies
0
insider2122 days ago
100% open yet still blockaded. Schroedingers straight !!!
0
Skinnieguy2 days ago
Trump made his ppl didn’t get the heads up to bet on the market.
Trump going to wait for the dip, buy, and then make another announcement saying the blockade is over.
0
MindOk86181 day ago
Hey world, time to boycutt US. Stop buying any US services and product.
161 Comments