Later in the week, Trump will announce they're close to a deal so the market can rip again.
153
oldschoolczar1 day ago
+35
That happens on Tuesdays.
35
BendicantMias1 day ago
+12
Nah, Axios will. The Barak Ravid special!
12
BOPSurfcasting1 day ago
+79
Just a reminder:
\*This war was suppose to last 5-6 weeks, we are now 10 weeks in with no end in sight.
\* Epstein files
\* A couple of old Trump statements from earlier in the war...
the war was “very complete, pretty much"
the U.S. had “already won"
79
Suspicious_Bicycle1 day ago
+23
After 60 days congress was supposed to do something. :(
23
BOPSurfcasting1 day ago
+3
The Republican dominated Senate would most likely support the war.
3
NoEmu59691 day ago
+3
It ended and then started again, so he’s good. /s
3
CryptoThroway82051 day ago
+2
It was supposed to be faster than that IIRC. NYT said the plan Bibi presented was to have the Iranians overthrow the IRGC with guns. It was obvious Pallavi was supposed to be the new leader within a week or 2 and they'd be on their way out with uranium a bit after that.
2
Loot3rd1 day ago
+12
So…should we all just expect the straight to permanently stay closed? At what point does the world stop hoping the straight opens and deal with the reality that it is closed for the foreseeable future?
12
morganisnotmyname1 day ago
+10
Wohoo, it’s market manipulation Monday!
10
NoSwordfish69492 days ago
+74
So this his how it ends then? Iran refuses to cave to demands, retains control of the straight for fees, and we all get to live with high gas prices for the foreseeable future?
74
Gimme_The_Loot2 days ago
+58
Its the true Green New Deal. No one will be able to afford gas
58
NoSwordfish69492 days ago
+19
Or anything transported with diesel fuel (everything)
19
AppealSame43671 day ago
+4
Can't wait for battery powered planes
4
Maaronhoffman1 day ago
+25
High gas prices are just the first thing. Oil is tied to everything lol
25
Indifferent_Response1 day ago
+5
After the great war we can try globalization again some time 😀
5
Diurnalnugget1 day ago
+10
Definitely not how it ends due to Irans economic strains under the blockade, from what I’ve looked up the estimates are about 4 or so months on the long end under a strict blockade until the issues start to cause a severe real impact in Irans ability to pay for itself. Until then probably yeah. Though Who knows what the situation will look like in 4 months since the estimates are based on nothing getting better for them.
10
MrTriangular1 day ago
+13
By then the planting season will long be over and we will be getting hit with the start of a global famine.
13
The_Starfighter1 day ago
+5
Why would they care about an economic collapse? In order for an economic collapse to bring down the government the people would have to be able to overthrow the government, and judging by the effectiveness of their protest massacres the people are not winning that fight no matter how starving and desperate they become.
5
Diurnalnugget1 day ago
+7
There are many problems beyond protesting that come with economic collapse. They won’t have the money to import things they need, they won’t have the credit to borrow money, people will stop showing up to work since they won’t get paid enough and are better off finding food elsewhere, officials will see a severely weakened government and may start getting in a mood to start a coup.
For example a lot of their food supply is imported. In an economic collapse they literally won’t have enough food to feed everyone and while ignoring them is an option if they start neglecting work to search for or steal food then the nations industries could collapse leading to more problems. A lot of machinery and parts for the machines are also imported which will be a problem for any sort of production if they can’t get those parts anymore.
Imagine everything that requires money. Now imaging it not running very well anymore because you can’t pay for it. Now imagine the loop of it running poorly meaning less production, less production means things run even worse, which results in less production. This continues until you drop far enough it becomes c**** enough you can pay to stabilize it.
Nations run on money. Money is blood for them. No matter how greedy or corrupt or uncaring a government is, they cannot ignore the need for money.
7
beginner751 day ago
+3
At some point the economy goes into a death spiral with hyperinflation. Not 50% inflation a year type of inflation but 50% a week where money is so worthless people will spend it immediately on goods and food the moment they get their wage, Zimbabwe style. Just look at another oil producing country, oil prices near historic high but the downward spiral continues.
3
SirDale1 day ago
+2
Zimbabwe ended up with $100 Trillion notes.
2
Donnicton1 day ago
+1
Also reminder that Tehran was estimated - by their own scientists - to be merely a couple weeks away from running out of water *before* all of this started happening, and the regime had no plans to remedy the situation. Tehran is probably completely screwed at this point even if things opened up today.
1
I_T_Gamer2 days ago
+8
Winning!! - Charlie Sheen
8
BOPSurfcasting1 day ago
+2
Yep, this is the new normal now. Just one little tweak - higher food prices will also follow.
2
totallyRebb1 day ago
+1
* Putin likes this
1
scotto19731 day ago
-6
The Iranaian regime is delusional. They are holding a pair of twos here.
Sorry for those of you affected by high oil & gas prices - but those same economic forces are a tonne worse for a regime that is financed by the oil sales that have been cut off.
-6
BendicantMias1 day ago
+7
>They are holding a pair of twos here.
Bruh, these dumb card metaphors are getting tiresome. Your dear leader doesn't even understand the game he's playing, as perhaps best exemplified by him embarrassing himself by showing he doesn't even understand UNO, while the Iranians clearly do - [https://tmv.in/article/iran-replies-to-trumps-ai-generated-uno-image-with-a-skip-card](https://tmv.in/article/iran-replies-to-trumps-ai-generated-uno-image-with-a-skip-card)
Why people feel the need to keep up with the dumb card metaphors popularized by a guy who literally bankrupted his own casinos I'll never know, but I suppose that's MAGA for you...
Suffice to say it isn't the Iranians who come across as the most delusional here. Not even close.
7
HelloYesItsMeYourMom1 day ago
+2
Ooo someone’s heated
2
HackPhilosopher1 day ago
+2
Lmao
If you think Iran’s economy isn’t absolutely fucked because of this military action you are more delusional the people who think their supreme leader isn’t in coma.
The rial is at a record low and is probably in competition for the most worthless currency in the world.
Iranian officials estimate the war has caused the loss of one million jobs, with an additional two million people indirectly affected. Major industrial heartlands are operating at minimal capacity due to severed supply chains.
The government-imposed internet shutdown has basically paralyzed the digital economy. Estimates suggest the shutdown alone costs the country $80 million per day.
They are estimated to be losing 500 million dollars per day because of oil being blocked by the us navy.
Their GDP is down 57%. That will take decades to recover from.
Not to mention direct damage to Iranian strategic and economic assets range from $144 billion to $270 billion.
2
Tesl1 day ago
+1
Okay? Well done?
1
whatsgoingon3502 days ago
+21
Tuesday Tomorrow wonder what bullshit he will say this time.
21
Ok-Doubt-63241 day ago
+3
Just enough bullshit to take out a bunch of stop-losses and put some more cash in Barron's trading account.
3
megapillowcase1 day ago
+3
What stock should I buy on Friday chat?
3
OptiPath2 days ago
+21
Ego war continues… both egos are too big to fail…
Full scale military war seems unlikely. Both seem pretty restrained over the past few weeks.
21
AmamiHarukIsMaiWaifu1 day ago
+9
Saudi is not on board with escalating. This is why the e***** mission stopped so suddenly last week. Full scale military invasion is impossible without Saudi on board.
While ego play a part, there are also real issues with getting a deal done. Trump certainly wants a deal better than the Obama's deal after the US have spent billions of dollars and depleted stockpile of ammunition. But not only that, Trump is going for maximalist demand to include proxy network and missile programs because the Arab nations are pushing for them. Arabs aren't threatened by Iran's nuclear weapons. They are threatened by Iran's missile and proxy network. If only nuclear weapons is in the deal, then the Arab nations got totally screwed by this war and only Israel come out on top.
Iran on the other hand have gotten their economy destroyed. The current regime will not survive without a lot of cash. They need to stabilize the economy. And if the people still protest, they need the money to pay for security force and foreign mercenary to murder the protesters. Iran also want guarantee that US won't come back again and try regime change. And with Trump assassinated their general back in his first term and then bombed Iran during talks twice, Trump needs to give up a lot to provide this guarantee. This also means missile weapon restriction is a non starter for Iran. Missile is Iran's deterrent. It is impossible for Iran to give it up.
9
Gamebird82 days ago
+33
I don't think this is purely ego on Irans side.
The longer this goes, the deeper the economy sinks and the deeper it sinks the more and more the GOP is stuck with the problem of "It's the Economy Stupid" facing them in November
33
MrDerpGently1 day ago
+12
Yup. The US/Israel started this round by killing their senior civilian leadership, destroying their infrastructure to an extent that's effectively unfixable under current sanctions, and killed Iran's negotiating team mid-negotiation. Iran's government has basically one card to play, and nothing left to lose. No matter how bad it is, the government is not likely to accept terms that amount to economic ruin and personal suicide, and regional defenses will catch up fairly quickly (probably months or less, though no one will want to be the first to test it) - Iran's government either cement a long term solution while they have leverage, or they (probably literally) die.
12
BendicantMias1 day ago
+8
They have more than just this card to play. They haven't actually gone as far as they can. They can block the Suez by closing the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait too. They can blow up Saudi Arabia's pipeline that's still carrying some of its oil to the world markets. They can blow up UAE's Indian Ocean facing ports and refineries. Etc. If worst comes to worst, they can blow up the regions' desalination plants and take the whole region down with them. They can absolutely tighten the screws further, if the US chooses to escalate.
8
MrDerpGently1 day ago
+4
I don't disagree. What I mean is: they have an asymmetric advantage based on their established drone program, distributed military organization, a mountain fortress (and you really need to stand at the Iranian border and look up to appreciate those mountains), and the realities of moving large volumes economically at scale.
There's a bunch of ways it can play out, but none where Iran concedes to US demands without major concessions, and the US has no better options (invasion and nuclear are much worse for everyone, but especially the US.
4
RobaDubDub1 day ago
Not just personal suicide, but because all the leaders of their military, together with the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, are very rich and their children attend the best universities in the world.And half of those leaders don't live in the countries that they're asking the people to die for so yeah , they're very scared , they're gonna lose their Wealth. Iran will just have to be made to surrender.That's all after that who cares
0
MrDerpGently1 day ago
+2
So, whatever the circumstances that led to this point, when the terms are: surrender unconditionally. You (current leadership of Iran), and your family, will be killed. However we phrase it, assume the response makes sense in those conditions. Unless you give them better options or you think there's a better domestic alternative, that's what they are responding to, and it makes a lot more sense.
2
RobaDubDub1 day ago
+3
I just think history repeats itself. And the people that opposed the US going to war against Hitler and opposed the US sending a man to the moon are the same people who complain about the price of gas to stop a country like Iran from becoming another North Korea, whose only source of income is stealing. And who is untouchable, because they have a nuclear weapon. Iran has been responsible for the murder of u. S servicemen and women around the world. You have to break them.That's just the bottom line
3
OptiPath2 days ago
-13
That’s what I said both egos, Trump and Iran. Trump clearly isn’t running in 2028 otherwise he wouldn’t have launched the attack on Iran in 2026. Dems will be on the fence. What can they do? Apologies for Iran and send $2b cash? That will lose massive votes. They would hope Trump close this mess in 2-3 years even if Trump has to use nuclear weapons.
-13
number39utopia2 days ago
+3
A full scale war wasn't going to happen anyway, trump is using this as an opportunity to line up his pockets, and Iran is making the most of the leverage it has with the occupied strait
3
[deleted]2 days ago
-2
[deleted]
-2
OptiPath2 days ago
That will never happen under Trump. I think Trump will use at least 1x nuclear weapon under his presidency. Its probably on Iran by the look of it
0
Old_Boah1 day ago
+16
It's a war that can't be won by air and sea power, and Iran has called our bluff on sending in the 82nd and 101st and 10th Mtn and a few other heavier armored divisions. So if you won't send in the Army on the ground, and naval and air campaigns aren't working, what happens next? Either someone blinks, or we play a game of "who can outlast the economic turmoil the longest?"
Probably Iran, since the Republicans have an election or two to worry about over the next couple years.
16
MeatImmediate65491 day ago
+6
The Republicans are working to undo that whole troublesome "election" thing so don't count them out. They are Neoconfederates & looking to ensconce their aristocracy permanently.
6
The_Frozen_Inferno2 days ago
+16
How I envision these talks going down:
Trump: Give us everything we want and you get nothing in return
Iran: Ok we’ll give you most of that but how about you give us these these couple of things
Trump: Unacceptable! We will bomb Iran into the ground! They’re so nasty to deal with! They expect to get something out of this deal! I know how to identify a squirrel! Thank you for your attention to this matter!!
16
I_Roll_Chicago1 day ago
+11
Iran isnt to be trusted either, so i wouldnt be surprised if they aren’t trying to also take advantage of the idiot administration.
I mean the longer they hold out the longer the disruption after july 4th will last. (Expected strategic reserve drop off)
They know that if they hold out another month full disruption will probably last through the midterms
(This disruption will last years we still dont accurate assessments on the total damage to gulf oil infrastructure)
11
Gerf931 day ago
+6
Irans trustworthiness isn't the issue, it's the US'. Trump arbitrarily tore up the last nuclear deal with Iran, which they were compliant with, because he wanted to look strong. You can't trust anyone like that to negotiate in good faith or to uphold any deal. Furthermore, the US have been committing all kinds of diplomatic faux pas lately - bombing delegations and attacking while negotiating. You can't trust them longer than you can throw them.
6
Conan-Da-Barbarian2 days ago
+3
What if we just fill the straits with flex seal so no one can use it? /s
3
DDoubleDDog2 days ago
+3
The Black Knight was also defiant after King Arthur cut off all his limbs. He wouldn't "bow" either. Nor could he.
3
rulz_ro1 day ago
+3
I really like your comparison, but sadly they're more like the Hydra...
3
Benstrieff1 day ago
+2
Trump finally will be held accountable by a foreign power
2
HanlonsRazor_2 days ago
+2
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!
2
420_69_Fake_Account2 days ago
+1
Barron’s still trading oil futures though
1
FremenCoolAid1 day ago
+1
Great another forever war. Good job maga
1
[deleted]2 days ago
-7
[deleted]
-7
Diurnalnugget1 day ago
+5
I mean in all fairness Iran has been a much bigger international pain than ukraine ever could be. I don’t think anyone sane believes Iran is some innocent flower boy getting bullied by higher powers. Ukraine leans a lot closer to being a genuinely innocent party.
5
BendicantMias1 day ago
-6
>don’t think anyone sane believes Iran is some innocent flower boy getting bullied by higher powers.
Really? How short peoples' memories are when it suits them - [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953\_Iranian\_coup\_d%27%C3%A9tat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) Iran has plenty of reason to hate the west.
-6
Diurnalnugget1 day ago
+6
Irans treatment of its citizens as well as connections to terrorism and the impact that’s had on innocent people has played that reasoning out. It’s a bully nation against another bully nation no better no worse.
6
Ojntoast2 days ago
+1
His buddies informed him that they want to upgrade the Yacht they just ordered, and order a 2nd and 3rd variation to be certain they get one they really like - and who knows, different weather - a different yacht.
1
NoGoat39301 day ago
+1
Don't worry, if he lives out his presidency, we will hand him over to you.
1
jcapi11422 days ago
-4
Mango Mussolini won't stop until he fully and completely destroys the USA.
He is a BRICS puppet meant to degrade and disrupt what was the greatest nation on Earth.
And his success in his mission is quite prevalent.
-4
Esamers991 day ago
-1
Its like Trump has histrionic personality disorder. Half the time hes claiming he fixed the mess he made here. Its quite sad to watch.
-1
fuckingshitttttttt1 day ago
Don't bow to garbage, unless there's a bee in your garage.
0
GateDeep32822 days ago
-18
Next move, blanket Tehran with pamphlets telling the citizens to flee with 72 hours. Have it say something about everywhere a pamphlet falls is a potential target.
Then, if no movement, bomb every government building one half of the city and give them a other 72 or the other half is gone.
-18
Hikarilo2 days ago
+12
And what will this achieve besides killing more innocent people? US already bombed the shit out of Iran during the beginning stages of the war. Bombing buildings and cities isn't going to get Iran to capitulate.
12
GateDeep32822 days ago
-17
It worked with Japan.
-17
Hikarilo2 days ago
+12
Wow, you are right! We should just go nuke every city in Iran and turn the ME into a radioactive wasteland. Why didn't our leaders thought of this brilliant idea? You should be the head of Pentagon with your genius.
12
GateDeep32822 days ago
-14
I never said nuke. More like a Dresden type of operation.
They can always give us access too the buried uranium. That's pretty simple.
-14
IOnlyFearOFGod2 days ago
+9
At this rate humanity will never go past "give us what we want or you and everyone around you will die"
9
GateDeep32821 day ago
+1
Iran simply cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. Everyone of the last few presidents has said that.
I agree with your overall sentiment though.
1
IOnlyFearOFGod1 day ago
+4
My sentiment is just ideal. An ideal for the future of humanity, but ideal is just an ideal.
But you seem to mistake me for being of similar geo/political alignment, i will tell, no, i am not. In many parts of the world, people hate the american government the way you hate Iranian, the american world order destroyed, toppled, and stole many nations. Thats how i see America.
I too hate America, and i am of global south, so, many of us hate the american government. In latin America, in Africa, and in Asia. For some like me Iran having nukes is something great! something to be celebrated!
Also, China and Russia to us is better than American government. The world is so much bigger than the west, which you seem to have known, for most of the time.
So, why do i speak english? why do i partake in western created social media? just so i know what you guys, the other side of the world thinks. and also for knowledge, your scientists deserve better funding.
4
GateDeep32821 day ago
+4
Wow. Iran having a nuke would be something great to you? Should everyone one now have a nuke?
The west is not alone in committing violence. Are you even aware of what's going on in Sudan? Do you support Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Making the west out to be the only aggressive country is rather narrow sighted.
It's more of a human problem that we shouldn't allow to grow.
4
IOnlyFearOFGod1 day ago
Iran having nukes means choking american power influence over middle east! And thus weakening American world order. So yes Iran having nukes is good. But i also think that Iran is not braindead enough to use a f****** nuke knowing that it could send off a chain reaction. I mean look at North korea again, they aren't doing much with nukes anyway.
Also yes i do know that west isn't alone in committing violence, There is UAE, i hate them more than America really, f*** UAE for killing my african brothers and sisters in Sudan. They also meddle in my country, they are snakes!
i don't support Russia's expansion either, they are absolutely brutal, like iran and America.
Lastly, i still hold the ideal that we should all either abandon weapons of war or EVERYONE has them so that NOBODY is safe. That way, nobody dares to use weapons of mass destruction.
0
Diurnalnugget1 day ago
I mean eh, a Chinese or Russian world order i would argue would be worse than an American one. China and Russia have much greater central control and there is much less moral outrage when the population learns what their country is doing. The people also have no real power to change anything. Russia we can see by what they have done to citizens in Ukraine and their rather flimsy reasons for starting the war, they would likely cause much worse problems than the US if they had the power of a world order and take a much more direct hand in it which a direct move by a world order would be more problematic than just influencing things.
China is a little more relaxed but the treatment of the Uyghurs and willingness to massacre protesters does not make me believe that they would be any better if they had world order influence. They also have records of bullying other nations for example their militarized fishing fleet that is being used to bully other nation and take their fish.
The US on the other hand has to at least put up a pretense of being nice since voters do matter, they care somewhat more about international opinion, and their leadership shifts gears about every 4-8 years. The US f*** with other nations plenty but it’s typically less directly, even with Venezuela the power structure is still mostly intact. The kidnapping was more just a bullies gut punch than anything that caused real change.
Speaking of the recent trump shenanigans there is a lot of discontent about the Iran war and nato threats, and unlike Russia or China those that are upset can voice that and vote for democrat politicians who can be relied on enough to fight republicans on basically anything if they have the power to do so. Not very good for cooperation and progress but good enough for switching priorities around. The people haven’t had the opportunity to vote yet as midterm elections for congress is still months away.
In total I would argue the US by needing to play nice for its voters is a better devil than Russia or China would be if they were given the same power. “the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t know” and all. Europe probably would be the nicest world order, but they also don’t have the power to do that much wrong in the first place since it’s a bunch of small and (compared to the US or China) weak nations so who knows.
0
Hikarilo1 day ago
+3
I would argue the opposite. The last time there was an European world order it led to global colonization, subjugation of many nations and their people, and the extraction of wealth from their populace. Also remember that World War 1 and 2 started under a Europoean led word order.
The US has went on a killing spree in Korea, Vietnam, the gulf, and Iraq in order to fight against "communism" or "weapon of mass destruction." They are still killing many people in the ME now for whatever reason they have for the month. Also, remember how the US reduce a neutral country, such as Cambodia to rubble during the Vietnam war because Ho Chi Min was using part of the Eestern Cambodia - Vietnam border as as supply route.
A world order under China will probably be the most stable one. China is not a interventionist country, and they focused inwards instead of outwards. At least, we wont see China bombing countries around the world if they were in charge.
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