Iran’s central bank warns economy may take 12 years to rebuild after war

or reason

It is sillier to think Trump is the one individually making all the tactical decisions

If he knows there's no saving the midterms, he might be choosing to go down in a blaze of sour grapes.

The war isn't polling particularly well, but last I saw it was still polling better than Trump over all was.

One of the complaints of Iranian youth is the billions wasted on foreign spending for wars that do nothing to help Iran. It’s a dictatorship. The money will flow to the proxies of those proxies provide support for the regime and its goals. The people can and will suffer but the spigot will flow

Of?

Every regime collapse ever?

The IRGC’s grip on not just political power but its control over basics like [agriculture](https://mei.edu/publication/irgcs-involvement-agricultural-industry-signals-growing-militarization-irans-economy/) and [water](https://mei.edu/publication/irgc-and-irans-water-mafia/), paired with a decentralised model that gives regional commanders a form of absolute authority, if not instructed otherwise (by Vahidi or Khamenei). And with the majority of those commanders being openly vocal about their anti-diplomacy stances. Iranian Historian Abbas Milani wrote an [interesting analysis](https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2026/01/iran-is-on-the-edge-of-revolution) during the January protests where he concluded that, if the regime did fall, the IRGC would almost certainly fill the power vacuum immediately. But, the instability that comes from a lack of clear leadership, paired with the organisations autonomous nature, would probably lead to a mass fracturing. What that looks like is a civil war between heavily armed IRGC factions, each fighting for absolute power. Initially the Iranian army would be either absorbed into these conflicts - or the Iranian parliament, headed most likely by Ghalibaf, as he appears to be the leader the U.S. has reluctantly anointed, would end up in an Assad-like position. But, as the IRGC are both military superior and better funded than the army, this would most likely lead to the collapse of any government or state army. On top of this, IRGC factions could speed destabilisation up by weaponising the distribution of basic essentials (like food and water) and devastate the country. Furthermore, if the reports of the CIA and Mossad heavily arming Kurdish separatists are true, these fighters would absolutely capitalise on such chaos in the North. If the rumours of the arming of protestors are true, the emergence of new militant groups, and the revival of older ones, could also add to the upheaval. I’d also note that there is also a not insignificant proportion of the population that supports the regime and I imagine they wouldn’t be too delighted by the news of regime collapse. In fact, I’d assume you would begin to see the Fadayan-e Islam make a return. I imagine what remains of the fundamentalist faction of the group is still armed. With no clear figure able to both unify the populace as well as no clear plan to disarm and remove the political and economic control of the IRGC, regime collapse will almost certainly result in civil war. I don’t think that can be disputed at this point.

Iran’s political history of the last 80ish years is filled with different factions vying for power. Its pretty interesting stuff

You know the Ottoman Empire collapsed and its constituent states are STILL fighting right? It’s gonna be a whole new round of balkanization

Power Vacuums create internal conflicts for dominance.

No, he does not. For some reason Pahlavi was propped up by western media as opposition leader. He has no real support in the country itsself, no organization backing him.

The people are armed now. They have been getting prepared for an armed revolution which will begin after the war ends. The regime is so crippled that it won't be able to crush the protests this time.

Way too early to make that kind of a call.

No, the enrichment is not why they got bombed, because there is no evidence that they were anywhere near having a nuke. The notion that this war was out of some kind of security necessity is pure Trumpist propaganda

I thought their nuclear program was obliterated last summer?

Are you sure its a listnook thing? Iran had all the international community as watchdogs to prevent this from happening. That deal was sabotaged not because Iran ever wanted to build or was building a nuke, but because breaking the deal and removing the watchdogs gave them the excuse to attack them because no one could know how close they were or not from building nukes. Iraq didn't have nor was close to having nukes either, and they attacked them too, for the same reason. Look at the country now. Iran is doing what they think will prevent them from having the same fate.

Literally every country that has nukes wants them in order to avoid being invaded. I don't now why you think it's weird that Iran would have the same logic

You think they are scared to make us (USA population) pay 2-5x for gas and other goods? Lmao

If you are the US, you have to worry about what a nuclear Iran does. They might try to control the Strait thought force and use their nukes as defensive threat.

The US lost its allies? That’s hilarious

Alright they’re being dumb but let’s see what happens with the next admin before jumping to crazy conclusions.

Lmao, these allies are all talk.  They’ll be back because they have no choice 

There’s a reason you’re getting downvoted. Seek information outside of your echo chamber - Iran has been absolutely squashed in all aspects, they have essentially nothing apart from their lies and empty threats. The straight was their last play, and it failed. Why people are even pretending like Iran is achieving any victory from this in any capacity is beyond comprehension.

Iran may bluster, but their leader is gone. their next leaders is playing weekend at Bernie's. and they got bombed for month while shooting, what. like ONE plane.

Not saying Iran was a saint, but check the history in the region and you will see that it was underdeveloped, like many other areas of the world, because of US interventionism. Yes it was decades ago but the current regime was in place because of a revolution that happened due to US intervention. The bottom line is that diplomacy should always be the way, and economic incentives in a global world the means to achieve it. The us is undermining international law, their allies, and the entire world economy just to make Israel happy.

Everybody is losing and Iran seems to be content with that. They don't need to win to make us all suffer.

Literally the person under this comment

The definition for the radicals of “winning” is surviving. They have massive leverage over the world economy right now and can inflict real pain.

They are preventing the US from achieving any of its strategic objectives, while succeeding in their objective of keeping the regime in control, so in that sense, they are winning

But the way people talk about it, especially on listnook, is so weird. Same when it comes to Hamas and Hezbollah. Its all about calling for a ceasefire instead of actually ending the war and working towards a lasting peace.

And you really think the Islamic Republic is comparable to Afghanistan because? If anything, Afghanistan is an exception not the rule because of its lack of national identity and culture of constant conflict that doesnt exist in other countries including Iran.