Iran's central bank warns of 180% inflation and collapse

The rules of economics are often put on hold during wartime, since markets don't function as expected and governments often take extreme measures that they wouldn't in normal peacetime circumstances. But the wheels can eventually come off, regardless. If you look at WW1, parts of the Austro-Hungarian empire essentially devolved to a quasi-barter economic system for food by 1918, with rolling famines. Same for Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria.

> wait for it to actually happen The difference is that it already happened in Iran: > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025–2026_Iranian_protests#Background > Economic crisis in Iran It's happening right now, the country is in an economic crisis with the current inflation (>50%, with risk of 180%), Russia never reached these levels afaik. I'm not sure what people expect in an economic crisis, Iran won't self-implode physically. But people aren't happy, which is why they protested before the war.

Russia isn't immune to the laws of supply and demand. They have killed off so many of their poor workers that the cost of labour has risen. They are trying to import millions of workers from India and poor countries, but the attempts have suffered massive problems.

Except inflation in Iran is a legitimate problem. When I was there 10 years ago visiting family, one dollar was around 3500 (or 35,000) rials — can’t remember which. Last month talking to family there they said it’s now around 350,000 for a dollar.

Russia was far better connected than Iran, they're also self sufficient to a much larger degree. The biggest folly of this war is that I think just a few more years of strict sanctions probably would have led to an economic collapse for Iran and we might have gotten a real regime change as a consequence.

Russia's inflation is nowhere as serious, something between 20 to 40%, and they have a lot of assets to work with. A 180% inflation is close to the hyper realm, so any money you earn will only have a third of its value next year.

Yep once again they will be able to cheat the system for short term stability.  As it turns out short isn't even that short if you have oil and can sell it via a third party and can scoop up wealth from those who become politically dangerous. Russia will have a price to pay one day.

Which "experts" are you quoting? It seems like you're making things up.

Russia was never supposed to collapse. Europe was dependent on Russian energy and everyone was already struggling with the post pandemic inflation, so the pressure applied to Russia was intended to be somewhat painful but nowhere near fatal. Europe carried on buying billions of dollars of Russian gas this whole time. And of course India, China, and other countries are perfectly happy to buy from them and keep the Russian ecconomy going.

You are comparing "experts" to actual Iranian central bank issuing a warning. But I guess you know more than them?

If you compare Russia economy today to its economy before the war they are still on that downwards trend. Will they collapse in the next year? Who knows, but the pressure is always mounting and the downward line will cause a break at some point if it isn't rectified. And the government is doing everything it can to make the line go up or at least flat.

Literally no expert said this about Russia. They all said that Russia can sustain the war for years.

The Russian economy is much, much different to the Iranian…. For one, the Russian economy is food independent, entirely secure from others. Also, you cannot blockade Russia. Entirely different geography and situation.

It wasn't experts claiming Russia would collapse. It was political pundits Just like in this case, it's not experts making this claim. It's the central bank making a statement for political purposes

Iranian here: bakeries (نانوایی) are running out of flour for bread and thus have no bread to sell. This is real. Stop minimizing what's happening in Iran just because you can't see it, because the islamic republic has shut down the internet to 90+ million Iranians inside the country for 45 days now. 

Russia is close to it. They are massively fucked.

Experts or political commentators? It's easy to confuse them but experts tend to avoid saying any certainties that rely on information not available to them.

This isn’t some “Russia is collapsing any day now” thing. This is currently happening in Iran. The Iran central bank just started printing 10 million dollar bank notes (worth $7 USD). https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/21/iran-issues-10m-rial-banknote-as-inflation-fears-spiral/

Can you show me one example?

I'm not an economist but that seems to be an issue for people with money. If you had nothing before the collapse, having nothing afterwards isn't exactly that much of a downgrade.

Read things that happening inside Iran but not from listnook. No internet, inflation, payments are delayed, salaries are delayed in some areas even before the war, supply chain a little bit disrupted. Also check Aids that are coming from left and right. Yes, Iran is receiving aids as we speak

Russia's about 5x "double or nothing" on the economy. Cracks in the economy are widening. For instance in the BBC report, below, from 13 April , on Russia's news print coverage of the Hungry election results, at 3 minutes in, it also covers the economy. When you have Russian papers writing about industrial layoffs, production cuts, manufacturing declines, moving to 4 day weeks, its take with a grain of salt and multiply the bad news by 10. Russia is not suffering from a fuel shortage, as the western world, with countries having similar problems. Well, it is suffering fuel shortages because it is selling as much as it can to get currency. [https://youtu.be/Aujgg0jJ2kk?t=180](https://youtu.be/Aujgg0jJ2kk?t=180) BBC Report.

There's a lot of propaganda, yes, but unlike Russia, which in theory would fall for no reason, Iran's economy has been destroyed. 90% of its metallurgical capacity destroyed. The pharmaceutical industry is completely crippled. Hydrocarbons are heavily under attack. Military spending is destroyed in bunkers, etc.

> but according to the "experts" Only if you got your experts from listnook. No actual expert thought the Russian economy economy was going to collapse.

Russia never had 180% inflation and a solid export of oil AND a they had a "welfare fund" of like 300 billion USD. - also Russia is the attacker, Ukraine as the victim would almost certainly have had a collapse of their economy if they weren't able to rely on help from other countries. I don't know what other countries Iran could go to, both China and Russia are pretty broke right now.

Russia doesn't have 180% inflation tho

Russia is the world's gas station though.

And look at cuba, still chugging along with no oil deliveries and limited food

Yea but the Russian news was mostly propaganda. I think long term the Ukraine war will be very bad for Russia. Key word is long term. Short term Russia is doing fine, infact the middle class is prospering . Jobs are plentiful, inflation while an issue is being offset with higher wages. The real issue is demographics. Losing young men while your demographics look bleak isn't helping, but the bigger issue is many young men, basically migrated out of Russia if they had the means .

You’re describing humanity as a civilisation. This narrative is both historical & global

a tale as old as time except in a few revolutionary instances.

Not this time. The people at the top in Iran are the regime's leaders who have been getting annihilated.

I thought Iran people were happy to be liberated by USA

Actually economics colapse threatens the regime so no, the pople at the top are not inherently fine.

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This is basically a syndication of "Iran International" an Iranian opposition publication. 

Just because it has "Israel" in the name doesn't mean it's biased. Assuming everything related to Israel is biased is bigotry. You offered no evidence of their bias yet you falsely accuse them anyway. All they're doing is quoting the Iranian central bank. The central bank is the source.

Those and axiom are really working overtime

Absolutely no nation is winning on this war besides a very limited number of individuals that are doing a lot of inside trading. For everyone else this is one of the most wasteful and pointless conflicts in modern history. The US is not accomplishing any objectives, or getting any real political change in the region. They are biding away resources, equipment and lives to side step into the sane or worse outcomes than they started this conflict at. Iran is having its economy shattered in a moment that they should be all in investing on solving their drinking water problems. The regime pretty much solidified its position and showed its people that at least partially they are willing to let everything burn just to keep themselves in power. A lot of the hey infrastructure of the country was destroyed to get at the end no real change in sanctions or regional goals. At the same time they didn’t manage to break away Israel Iron Dome or inflict any meaningful strike to US targets. Israel didn’t manage to inflict the strategic strike that they really wanted to make Iran bend. Instead they are burning away their Iron Dome strategic reserves like they will go out of fashion. Literally firing away millions of dollars of equipment every day into an unsustainable attrition war with Iran. At the same time they are going all in on Lebanon to get extremely limited results. Pretty much the country is at war with all major neighbours besides Egypt at this point, and good will towards them is on an historic low. Every other country in the world is pretty much sitting with their hands holding its d*** waiting for this to calm down so they can plan ahead on how to deal with the massive rise in oil prices and the stoppage of about 20% of global shipping. So yeah no one is winning besides those that are playing with the economy for their own gain

People are just desperate to get at the US in any way. While it's a stupid war, it's equally stupid to think Iran is "winning". Their country is being bombed to hell.

Says a moron using an Israel-controlled Iranian opposition outlet's claim to be critical of those they disagree with. Seems like there's morons on all sides.

I've never heard anyone say that Iran is winning. They are obviously getting bombed to shit but still successfully holding the US and the world economy hostage by exerting control over the strait.

The only thing that’s clear is that we’re all loosing because of an unnecessary war that none of us asked for.

They're not winning but they are very successfully dragging us all down with them. Net outcome so far isn't a win for anyone except Russia and maybe China ~~/ India~~, in a way also Israel. Certainly not for the US. Edit: removed India from the list

Genuine question for you, do you think Iranians are doing well then?  Let's look at the facts:  - the islamic republic shut down the internet completely on February 28, following a month long shut down in January, mind you. Do you have the slightest idea what's gonna happen to an economy in 2026 if there is no internet? I, as an Iranian, know at least 20 people who have lost their only source of income from gamers, to people who ran their business using Instagram (post pictures of products and accept orders through DMs) and websites and telegram, people who worked in companies that worked internationally such as a friend who worked at a company that sold pistachios...and the company went bankrupt, to many many others.  - The banks are mostly closed, with the central bank being hit the hardest so badly even the ATMs are down.  - Many people haven't been able to work because of the war.  - Many companies cannot pay their employees, either because they don't have the money or because the banks are closed and not working.  - Supermarkets are putting caps on how much people can buy of certain things out of fears of running out.  - So many of my friends and family who haven't lost their jobs yet are basically waiting to lose their jobs. They say it's only a matter of time.  - The destruction...so many of the places hit during the war were economic services, because the IRGC controls about 50% of the Iranian economy.  - The rial to dollar exchange rate went from 1,500,000 rials per 1 dollar in January to now 3,000,000 rials per 1 dollar in April...this is the black market, even by the official market, the change from January to April is 993,585.00 to 1,316,125.00. it's gone up 50% in the past 6 months and over 80% in the last year.  I mean, this really looks like a thriving economy, doesn't it???

But I’m sure you will read things produced by Iran.

In what way is Iran dominating the US?

I suspect you attempting a clever insult about a misunderstanding in math. If not ignore this. If so, please know that you are the one with a misunderstanding. 180% inflation is entirely possible. With 180% inflation something that used to cost $1 now costs $2.80. In other words, add on 180% of the initial amount (x + (x * 1.8)).

The Iranian central bank is claiming this. They're just quoting the bank.