ListNook

wired1984 Apr 20, 2026 +171

I first saw the idea for a market like this 20+ years ago under the GWB administration. It was pointed out by many that these markets would be subject to easy manipulation. We are somehow less wise in the current era

171

usethe4th Apr 20, 2026 +47

They talk about this in the episode. I didn’t remember that and thought it was very interesting context.

47

rjcarr Apr 21, 2026 +8

Yeah, although they described it as how it was run by the pentagon, and almost exclusively for war related stuff. Now you can bet on, like, how many times Trump will say "nasty".

8

MyGoodOldFriend Apr 21, 2026 +13

Or whether people will throw dildos at a specific female team’s match. Like John Oliver points out, it gives a monetary incentive to really gross behavior. Just bet it happens and throw it yourself.

13

Simon_Jester88 Apr 20, 2026 +16

Less wise or just morale standards have dropped?

16

MrLivefromthe215 Apr 20, 2026 +10

Why not both gif.

10

Big-Revolution3842 Apr 21, 2026 +6

I think gambling has been incredibly normalised especially to Gen-Z As a millennial I still remember how much arguments were being had about loot boxes and rewards packs in games with random odds. At that time publishers acted like it was fun mechanics but now you're going to have entire generations normalised to gambling mechanics through gatcha games.

6

justherefor23andme Apr 20, 2026 +24

I just finished reading The Shock Doctrine and it touches up on how the markets win no matter what happens. If they keep winning based on tragedy, there is no incentive for peace. The book is 19 years old already but still as relevant and illuminating as ever.

24

noplay12 Apr 20, 2026 +4

Naomi is prescient.

4

Pale-Measurement-532 Apr 21, 2026 +5

It’s a modern form of gambling. I guess that’s implied by Oliver’s quote. I watched this episode of Jon Stewart’s podcast on YouTube. It was great. I would highly recommend it if you’re interested in learning about the dark side of crypto and bitcoin: [https://www.listnook.com/r/DailyShow/s/c4AFtmi4kO](https://www.listnook.com/r/DailyShow/s/c4AFtmi4kO)

5

nhink Apr 21, 2026 +5

Actual gambling is at least somewhat fair

5

Pale-Measurement-532 Apr 21, 2026 +1

That is true! We know that this system is rigged for the house to win.

1

Holy-Fuck4269 Apr 21, 2026 -3

It is actual gambling and exactly as fair as other forms

-3

Mighty__Monarch Apr 21, 2026 +3

Decades of defunding education leading into the GWB admin which have been paying dividends before and since increasingly, and the defunding never really stopped either.

3

GILDID Apr 20, 2026 +1

Too many brawndo drinking idiots out there.

1

Neracca Apr 21, 2026 +1

Bush was amazing compared to this.

1

TheMireAngel Apr 20, 2026 +58

"betting on war" its worse than that It is clearly without a doubt insider trading We know for a fact that the Trump admin is NOT informing Congress or the Senate on anything military related Wich means the betting is entirely either the Trump Admin or Active Military Higher Ups

58

ChaoticSenior Apr 20, 2026 +12

Don Jr enters the chat.

12

iambarrelrider Apr 21, 2026 +6

*snifffffffffff…*

6

southpaw_balboa Apr 20, 2026 +12

they’re *predictions* michael. bets are things a junkie does for rent

12

alwayssunnyinskyrim Apr 21, 2026 +1

I mean candy

1

ChaoticSenior Apr 20, 2026 +21

This is the dark timeline John. If shitty shit is possible, it will happen. “Prediction Markets” are just nothing shitty shit thing.

21

ldssggrdssgds Apr 20, 2026 +6

Has a squid games feel to it

6

Fubar236 Apr 20, 2026 +3

Making money and morals do not generally go hand in hand. Such is life.

3

Logical--- Apr 21, 2026 +1

Very defeatist outlook. Its our job to build a society that magnifies our best traits and stifles our worst. For a start we should NOT be financially rewarding charlatans, grifters and liars.

1

Fubar236 Apr 21, 2026 +1

“WE” don’t reward them. They built a system that rewards themselves and we are just meat in the grinder of that system. Defeatist? Idk… more realism than anything. But your take is not invalid. Our best traits preclude us from fully eliminating the worst and those who personify those traits … which is why the cycle will never end

1

Roberta_Riggs Apr 20, 2026 +16

The dildos being thrown onto the women’s pro basketball court were prediction market betters making sure that outcome was guaranteed. It’s easy to game. There were even prediction market bets on words that John Oliver would say in his show even though they filmed 24 hours in advance in front of a live studio audience …all of them would be able to bet with certainty and make bank.

16

FrostyFeature989 Apr 21, 2026 -4

Are you a bot transcribing the episode poorly?

-4

Roberta_Riggs Apr 21, 2026 +3

Says the 3 month old account who didn’t bother to watch the show.

3

FrostyFeature989 Apr 21, 2026

I watched it, everything you said is in the episode.

0

Roberta_Riggs Apr 21, 2026 +3

The title of this post focuses on the part of the show concerning the morality of betting on human suffering which is secondary to managing the open corruption and manipulation we see with the d**** example, the trump-and-dump example. Highlighting those relevant facts in the discussion was my goal…. What was yours?

3

rjptrink Apr 20, 2026 +3

Bet on war starting all you want, but required by law to serve in the front lines of that war. Problem solved.

3

Eiglo Apr 21, 2026 +3

Palliative care stage of capitalism is right

3

grameno Apr 20, 2026 +3

What happens if say a group of Dentists, Doctors and Lawyers hire some Mercs and send them to a country for coup to push the odds of a prediction market? Like what’s to stop some really gnarly pieces of shit betting on violence and destabilization and then causing it to pick up a pay day?

3

Furgaly Apr 21, 2026 +2

Dentists, doctors and lawyers are not the people betting on prediction markets and hiring mercenaries. Maybe the top 0.1% of these groups. You're confusing the 'somewhat wealthy' for the 'stupidly rich'. Source: I'm a dentist and prediction markets and mercenaries are way the hell out of my budget.

2

grameno Apr 21, 2026 +2

I tried to pick a selection of reasonably wealthy professions and make a thought experiment of if a group of them or someone in their category pooled resources together. I definitely agree it’s probably people much wealthier that would do this. But what’s stop a group of reasonably wealthy jerks from doing a coup? People can hire mercs from Soldier of Fortune Magazine. Or even dark web. Like I am sure in countries where the dollar is strongest even a group somewhat wealthy Americans could do insane damage.

2

rjcarr Apr 21, 2026 +1

It's way easier than that. There were bets on, "will a d**** be thrown onto a wnba court?". That's something you can just manifest. Or even dumber, like "how many times will John Oliver say Trump?", when the show is filmed like 24-48 hours in advance.

1

ramencents Apr 20, 2026 +1

Wait until they start betting on casualty numbers….

1

dan420 Apr 21, 2026 +1

I mean I knew long ago that investing in companies that make tools of war, like say Raytheon, or that plunder the earth, like say Exxon is a safe and easy way to make money, but I’d rather stay where I am financially than contribute to those activities. This feels like that, but on crack.

1

Dull-Efficiency9985 Apr 21, 2026 +1

It's not new. Basically the entire stock market can revolve around betting on war. Gold, Oil, Defense, Auto, even food and travel.

1

hoguensteintoo Apr 21, 2026 +1

America is watching their country and reality from their couch. The way people see the world is just a disaster waiting to happen.

1

No-Lion-4734 Apr 21, 2026 +1

Right? We are in sad times. 😔

1

iritchie001 Apr 21, 2026 +1

This is such a national security problem. The insiders have top secret info. We know this. Troops can die.

1

JiovanniTheGREAT Apr 21, 2026 +1

And now Forbes has a betting platform that is letting you bet on if Congress will take gun control action after a dude murders 8 children. Totally normal civilization and economy.

1

Sallymander Apr 21, 2026 +1

Best part of this episode is he was making such random jokes throughout the episode and then points out prediction markets go to what he says on the show then John points out that it’s stupid to do that because his audience sees what’s gonna happen in 24 hours before airs TV.

1

Rambo-Santa Apr 21, 2026 +1

WTF else can we do with this circus

1

PeppermintEvilButler Apr 21, 2026 +1

Makes it easier to embezzle money

1

The_Frostweaver Apr 21, 2026 +1

At this point the whole stock market rides on the peace talks between Iran and the USA and Trump's team is inside trading a billion dollars at a time. Meanwhile the price of transportation, food, heating your home, and everything else keeps going up because of the war. The military industrial complex profiting off of bloated defense budgets was already bad. Dark doesn't even begin to describ the shit hole we are in now. But don't worry, Trump is already bored of Iran, we can all look forward to the upcoming Cuban war which will definitely be easy to win and have no consequences right?

1

knowledgeable_diablo Apr 21, 2026 +1

The world is literally paying Trump and his families weekly profits. The most ethical thing any person could do is knock him and anyone associated with his LLC or family trusts and redistribute the money he’s stolen back into regular circulation.

1

suff0cat Apr 21, 2026 +1

Haven’t had a chance to watch Last Week Tonight yet, so not sure if Zazu touched on it, but the thing that always boggled my mind is how these gambling apps are sponsoring professional wrestling now. Like, people rig ACTUAL athletic competitions to try and tip the odds in their favor. How do you keep the career carnies in the pro wrestling industry from just betting on the shit they are writing and creating a kind of infinite money glitch? Even if you ban the writers themselves, nothing stopping them from passing the results down the line to someone who can make the wager for them. For a nominal fee, of course.

1

digital Apr 21, 2026 +1

Everybody is gambling on everything, our future, environment, sporting events, entertainment, and the economy. There’s always somebody rigging the system and cheating the public. Can we get back to common sense and businesses that don’t destroy peoples livelihoods?

1

Round-Medicine2507 Apr 20, 2026 +1

The stock market is the lite version of this still.

1

JC1949 Apr 21, 2026 +1

There is no bottom for the US

1

Rick-burp-Sanchez Apr 21, 2026

You mean being a nation that relies almost solely on perpetual war to survive and feel important doesn't make us the good guys?

0

DuncanYoudaho Apr 21, 2026 -1

And betting on CTE/brain damage-causing fights and football games isn’t? It’s all f****** rotten.

-1

txtumbleweed45 Apr 21, 2026 +1

At least the football players and fighters consented to competing

1

DuncanYoudaho Apr 21, 2026

The number of kids that get into football and boxing from rich vs poor families belies the notion of consent.

0

Seerad76 Apr 21, 2026 +1

Lol. Where did you find these numbers? Who in this scenario is not giving consent?

1

txtumbleweed45 Apr 21, 2026 +1

I don’t think you understand what consent means. Almost every kid loves football and I personally love martial arts. I don’t do it because I’m forced to, I do it because it’s fun and challenging

1

DistrictDry2852 Apr 20, 2026 -11

I won some money when Maduro got arrested. Criticize me all you want, he was a monster and I’m glad he went down. I don’t feel ashamed about celebrating his downfall.

-11

txtumbleweed45 Apr 21, 2026 +1

And what exactly did that accomplish? Same exact regime in charge now

1

DistrictDry2852 Apr 21, 2026 +1

Many political prisoners have been freed. It’s not ideal but compare to how the Iran war is going. It’s not the same because back in 2024, maduro promised to respect election results then killed thousands of people and stayed in power despite losing by 70% and nobody cared. When maduro got kidnapped most Americans didn’t even know he was a dictator they kept calling him democratically elected. Nowadays the moment the regime touches a hair on someone’s head it’ll be international news because the U.S. will be considered responsible for it. As a Mexican whose country got hit hard by the Venezuelan migrant crisis, I was always sympathetic to their plight. It’s frankly quite horrifying it was this easy to end the regime yet nobody did anything for 10 years. Trump is awful, but it says a lot it was him of all people who finally said no. It should be shameful he had a more positive impact on Venezuela than Obama or Biden.

1

txtumbleweed45 Apr 21, 2026 +1

I’m glad that some prisoners got freed, but again , the same regime is in charge. Comparing it to the complete disaster that Trump cause in Iran is a pretty low standard

1

DistrictDry2852 Apr 21, 2026 +1

It’s not ideal, but we can expect something of a transition like that of post communist countries. The regime will liberalize and be phased out. Next time there are elections they WILL be democratic and I don’t expect them to win.

1

[deleted] Apr 20, 2026 -8

[removed]

-8

PacmanIncarnate Apr 21, 2026 +1

Great. So now we need to create a whole new area of law enforcement, spend got knows how much money trying to investigate bets, all so that we can have a highly addictive form of gambling that likes to break into highly unethical territory almost designed to encourage insider trading. Awesome.

1

4_teh_lulz Apr 21, 2026 -2

There is one prediction market company doing this, making the rest of the industry look horrid.

-2

TangoPRomeo Apr 20, 2026 -3

Betting on war is tasteless, but it's also one of the most human things I can imagine. My preference would be to let it go, but tax winnings from violence-related contracts at 95%.

-3

John Oliver on prediction markets: ‘Betting on war is really dark’

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