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News & Current Events Apr 11, 2026 at 8:57 PM

Judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators and pauses prosecution of Kalshi

Posted by AudibleNod

Judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators and pauses prosecution of Kalshi
AP News
Judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators and pauses prosecution of Kalshi
A judge has temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against predictive market operators like Kalshi.
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AudibleNod Apr 11, 2026 +3479
>The judge’s order said the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission had sufficiently shown that “event contracts” fall within the Commodity Exchange Act’s definition of “swaps,” and that it had demonstrated a reasonable chance of success in showing that the act preempts Arizona law. Leave it to the Trump DOJ to have a reasonable level of competency when there's money to be made.
3479
Mobile-Bar7732 Apr 11, 2026 +1495
[Kalshi names Donald Trump Jr. as strategic advisor](https://news.kalshi.com/p/donald-trump-jr-strategic-advisor)
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12stringPlayer Apr 11, 2026 +653
They don't even try to hide the grift anymore.
653
Track_Boss_302 Apr 11, 2026 +150
I actually bet that this would happen
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Swordf1sh_ Apr 11, 2026 +72
On Kalshi?
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cire1184 Apr 12, 2026 +33
On polymarket
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TheWolfbytez Apr 12, 2026 +24
Oh. You mean the other thing Junior is involved in, because why stop at one?
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The_Grungeican Apr 12, 2026 +12
The people who made steady money during the gold rush, were the ones selling the shovels.
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zatalak Apr 12, 2026 +3
'I'm playing both sides.'
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Vashsinn Apr 11, 2026 +35
That's part of the filter. If you're smart enough to see I / catch it, they don't want you, you're more trouble. They want those who can't see 2+2 =4.
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ichigo2862 Apr 12, 2026 +15
The scammer modus operandi is on full display yet people still refuse to see it
15
Vashsinn Apr 12, 2026 +7
Again is part of the filter. There's a reason scam emails still have misspelled words. You think they can't transkate? Nah, if you notice the misspelled words you won't waste their time. If you don't notice it, you are the target. Ofc people who do fall for it will probably always exist.
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TheWolfbytez Apr 12, 2026 +2
No. We see it. Those in power to do anything about it simply refuse.
2
NDSU Apr 11, 2026 +31
They really don't. There's going to be so many books written about how open, blatant corruption became the norm under the Trump regime
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hydrochloriic Apr 12, 2026 +3
Why would they? Hasn’t been a problem so far and it’s way less work this way.
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saintandrewsfall Apr 12, 2026 +2
They never hid it. I always say, “there’s no secret societies, they do the evil shit right in front of our faces. No one pays attention and/or cares.”
2
GargamelTakesAll Apr 11, 2026 +135
Jesus that is the most corrupt thing I've seen in the past month out of this administration.
135
Mobile-Bar7732 Apr 11, 2026 +144
He's also an adviser for Polymarket and his company has a major investment in them. [Polymarket adds Donald Trump Jr. as adviser ahead of US return](https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025/08/polymarket-adds-donald-trump-jr-as-adviser-ahead-of-us-return-00525444) > Venture capital firm 1789 Capital, where the president's eldest son is a partner, also made a strategic investment in the betting giant.
144
willun Apr 11, 2026 +62
Wasn't this what they were up in arms about with Hunter. Hunter, Hunter, Hunter, Hunter. But when it is junior? Crickets. Also, Hunter had qualifications. Does junior?
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Unfair_Web_8275 Apr 12, 2026 +15
The investigations into Hunter were a road map of what they want to do.
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blotsfan Apr 12, 2026 +16
It’s funny because if there was any pretense he got the gig for any reason besides corruption, a company would never allow a board member to work for their direct competitor.
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King_Chochacho Apr 12, 2026 +3
Sounds great on paper but the 'strategy' of just knowing what the president is going to say and do in advance only works for a handful of people.
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Aazadan Apr 12, 2026 +4
The position is a bribe so they're not shut down, not for insider information.
4
WretchedBlowhard Apr 12, 2026 +3
Sometimes, a potato can also be a d****.
3
The_Grungeican Apr 12, 2026 +3
The potato of consequences rarely arrives washed
3
Hugh_Jass_Clouds Apr 11, 2026 +14
It wasn't the threat to "end a civilization" that was the most corrupt thing in the last month?
14
Time_News_8452 Apr 12, 2026 +3
It was the most deranged thing an US president ever said.
3
tots4scott Apr 12, 2026 +7
Nah that's Jared Kushner being anywhere close to negotiations while having a lifetime of conflicts of interests. Same corruption ball park though.
7
sr71Girthbird Apr 12, 2026 +6
Lol wait until you hear about the two Trump sons merging their golf course maintenance company with a military drone manufacturer so they can pocket 10 or 100 million dollar contracts from the DoD. The justification is that "We're going to use the golf courses as a place to test the drones."
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SpliTTMark Apr 11, 2026 +6
Kalshi: advise us Don jr: zzzzzzzzzz
6
CreativeFraud Apr 12, 2026 +2
"This important addition to our team marks a major milestone for the future of Kalshi—and for how Americans uncover the truth in today’s fractured, often biased media landscape." I need to throw up...🤢
2
TheRabidDeer Apr 11, 2026 +276
I don't understand this difference of wordplay from Kalshi and others. Like couldn't c*****'s now just open literally everywhere? "I'm not betting on my p**** hand, I am *predicting* that my p**** hand will win." The end result is the exact same, the "process" to get there is just slightly different.
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Actual__Wizard Apr 11, 2026 +76
Yes, it's a bunch of word games to try to get away with operating an illegal c*****.
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The_Grungeican Apr 12, 2026 +5
It’s only illegal until it’s not, and most law is a various set of word games.
5
progrethth Apr 12, 2026 +2
No, that is not how common law is intended to work.
2
lacegem Apr 11, 2026 +43
I'm about to go predict that a brown paper bag won't have drugs in it. I always lose the bet, but I get to keep the bag.
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Aazadan Apr 11, 2026 +42
Ok, so basically in a c***** there's published odds of everything and the games are regulated. There is a specific mathematical chance, that is known in advance, of every single outcome where that's a group of players at a p**** table, to a pull on a s*** machine, to a game of r*******. Sports betting gets a bit different, but at the end of the day it's still individuals betting against odds that are created by bookmakers of certain things happening for the starting point of a bet, and then the payouts get adjusted over time as the model relies on the wages being as close to 50/50 in dollars paid out as possible. And remember, athletes can't bet on their own games, it's illegal (and against their contracts) Prediction markets are taking this a step further, and the market isn't doing anything to alter betting odds. It's just people making their own bets on things happening, and then someone agreeing to take the bet. So I can go out there and put up $100 saying I'm paying 10:1 that on April 11th and 8:59 est Trump will go on a specific fox news show, wearing a red tie, and give a speech where he says he just bombed an iranian oil well. And someone can put $10 on their side to take the bet. If I win I get their $10 and if they win they get my $100. The platform doesn't know or care what the bets are. tl;dr: Casinos - Specific testable mathematical odds in a game of chance, that are outside the influence of any individual. Sports betting - Market based 50/50 approach of actions taken by outside third parties. Prediction - Anonymous bets of actions taken with many of the outcomes being decided by those making the bets.
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MovieGuyMike Apr 12, 2026 +24
>Prediction markets are taking this a step further, and the market isn't doing anything to alter betting odds. There are definitely people in privileged positions manipulating the system.
24
King_Chochacho Apr 12, 2026 +11
Which is exactly what makes them so dangerous. Rigging sporting events is a tale as old as time, and here you have all the incentives but nobody's missing a title or potentially sabotaging their own career. As long as these remain anonymous they won't just be prediction markets, they'll be causality markets.
11
alphazero925 Apr 12, 2026 +32
So it's a big c***** with a bunch of little casinos in it. By their logic, you can open up a c***** that just lets people run their own p**** games and give the c***** a cut of the profits.
32
thatwhileifound Apr 12, 2026 +15
The distinction is that most c***** games are more fair and honest than this shit. Think of the games in a c***** and they can all be broken down into clear odds in a strictly mathematical sense. The bets here don't really have the same kind of straightforward ability to calculate the odds because the shit being bet on exists outside similar systems of control like game rules or set play pieces or whatever. This shit creates the opportunity to make the worst stereotypes of casinos look f****** wholesome, upright, and honest. It's honestly nefarious as f***.
15
Aazadan Apr 12, 2026 +4
Sort of. Their logic is that you can take a game being played in an actual c*****, and then make bets on how the person playing the game will do. But really, that would be a step better than what prediction markets are doing right now, because that would still be fundamentally rooted on a game of chance and all else being equal should still even out (player action should be irrelevant in a game of chance on a macro level). Instead they're betting on people taking certain actions, but the people taking those actions are in on the bet. So it's actually worse than what you described.
4
TheRabidDeer Apr 12, 2026 +11
OK, but what's stopping someone from opening a "b******** prediction market"? And in this market you have a group of people that own the establishment that has these events taking place. Everyone in this "market" is just playing b******** hands. The person playing b******** hands says, "I predict I will win the next hand, I will put up a contract for $100 paying out 51:49" and the owners of the establishment say "sure, I'll take that contract". The platform is just the "market" floor with all of the tables, everyone else involved is just taking prediction contracts. Or, to take that another route, you can have an open establishment where the owners just take a cut of exchanged contracts between other people. Like I live in TX, where sports betting is still illegal, but I can go on Robinhood and there is a prediction market for every sporting event going on.
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Aazadan Apr 12, 2026 +8
Nothing is stopping them, there's people doing that already on these platforms, and you can go a step up and see that people have been doing this on sports betting apps for a while too. It's another reason why this prediction stuff needs to get looked at a bit closer by legislators and courts, but given how long its taken for payday loans to actually get something done about them (hint: never, because the owners of the large ones are legislators in many states) I'm not too optimistic.
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smalls_1804 Apr 11, 2026 +5
A big difference is that for betting markets it's only users placing the bets. If I want to product the sun will rise tomorrow, another person has to buy into the contract predicting it won't. For betting, technically everyone can bet the sun will rise, and if no one bets that it doesn't, the "house" still has to pay it if/when it does
5
bigmacjames Apr 11, 2026 +451
Oh so nooowww they want Chevron deference
451
keytiri Apr 11, 2026 +78
It’s pretty clear this administration is employing the Chewbacca defense 🤦‍♀️, using AI to write nonsensical briefs in the hopes of something sticking.
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Swordf1sh_ Apr 11, 2026 +4
Aka the let them win defense
4
ptWolv022 Apr 12, 2026 +6
Chevron deference was the idea that Courts are *obligated* to follow the Executive's interpretation if it was reasonable. In the post-*Loper Bright* world, Courts are not obligated to follow the Executive's interpretation just because it is reasonable... but that doesn't mean Court's can't agree with the interpretation, or something similar to it. That's how questions of law work. Both sides make arguments and Courts then decide which side is right (if either at all; or to what degree each are right if they agree with some points one each side).
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yoitsthatoneguy Apr 12, 2026 +4
That’s not what Chevron is…
4
michiganalt Apr 11, 2026 +15
That is not Chevron deference. The court is not deferring to the agency’s interpretation of the statute. It is interpreting the statute to see if it applies to Kalshi. If it does, it preempts any state law attempting to regulate the same thing.
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bufordt Apr 11, 2026 +33
I'm guessing he placed a huge bet (Sorry, invested in the prediction market) right before his ruling that Arizona would be barred from regulating prediction market operators.
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ShortStoryIntros Apr 11, 2026 +20
Keep in mind... This freeze or pause is only temporary... It sounds like an official stance, but in legal terms, it’s actually more of a stopgap measure than a permanent ban on Arizona from regulating prediction markets 1. "Judge Michael Liburdi noted that it is still too early to issue a final, permanent ruling on whether federal law "trumps" state gambling laws in this specific instance." 2. "The judge’s order specifically pauses an immediate criminal arraignment for Kalshi so that the court can take more time to review the arguments from both the Trump administration and the state of Arizona before making a final decision." 3. "Other courts across the country have issued contradictory rulings on this same issue—some siding with states like Nevada and Massachusetts, and others siding with Kalshi. A temporary pause allows this specific court to weigh these conflicting precedents."
20
14Three8 Apr 11, 2026 +74
>that it had demonstrated a reasonable chance of success ~~Tell me if I’m interpreting this wrong, but aren’t they taking bets on the return of Jesus Christ?~~ e: I’m interpreting this wrong. See u/okwelcome6293 ‘s reply
74
PaidUSA Apr 11, 2026 +30
Yes, but as that would affect several markets there is a reason someone may wish to buy swaps on it to hedge against future risk. Not that that’s required but that’s the bullshit reason and as long as the Feds play along than it’s swaps. Because the Feds get to define those.
30
Easy_Kill Apr 11, 2026 +26
...this sounds like an easy way to make money off gullible idiots. Step 1: pay the hindustan times or similar garbage rag to publish a series of articles intimating the return of Jesus. Step 2: place bets Step 3: ??? Step 4: profit! I dont even think this is morally objectionable, really. Edit: and hell, if you lose the bet, you probably have much bigger issues to concern yourself with. Like the Rapture or something.
26
kaisadilla_ Apr 11, 2026 +10
I mean, that's the problem with polymarket. Most of the bets there will be influenced by specific people taking specific actions, and nothing stops these people from simply betting on yes / no then taking the action that raises their decision's value.
10
berael Apr 11, 2026 +12
> this sounds like an easy way to make money off gullible idiots. All "prediction markets" are populated by insider traders blatantly manipulating events for profit, and suckers that they're stealing money from.  If you are using one of those websites, and you are not an insider capable of manipulating world events, then *you're the sucker*. 
12
ChillFratBro Apr 11, 2026 +5
Yes and no.  The return on a bet that Jesus Christ will not return in the next year is lower than leaving your money in an FDIC insured bank, and with slightly higher external risk. It is free money, it's not the best return available for free money so no one's going to use it as an investment vehicle.
5
Easy_Kill Apr 11, 2026 +7
Thats why the media manipulation is critical! Use sock puppets and bots to spread the articles throughout Evangelical/MAGA socmed groups while using other fake accounts to promote the bet listings. Shepherd the Flock, then fleece em! If these muppets can be convinced to empty their pockets for freakin' Iraqi Dinars, anything is possible. Edit: Oooh! Even better, embellish the hell out of the story and make it dramatic as all get out, then write a book about it with a horrid, attention-grabbing title like "Pumping and Dumping Jesus" *based on a true story*
7
OkWelcome6293 Apr 11, 2026 +13
You are interpreting it wrong. The judge says the legal case has a reasonable chance of success, not the bets on the platform.
13
KarmaticArmageddon Apr 12, 2026 +8
You'll never guess who appointed the judge: [Trump, of course](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_T._Liburdi) Oh and he's also a member of the Federalist Society, of course
8
dryheat122 Apr 11, 2026 +15
Well yeah...if states are allowed to regulate this kind of betting, how are WH insiders expected to make millions by placing bets just before they take some action?
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PatReady Apr 11, 2026 +5
Trump Jr is aboard Kalshi. Its all about this.
5
-OptimisticNihilism- Apr 11, 2026 +2
The trick to getting by state gambling laws is to just call it something else. How has no one figured this out before now?
2
psichodrome Apr 12, 2026 +2
This activity that is horrendously harmful can't be regulated because it kinda fits the definition of a "swap" (and probably 20 other definitions too, like gambling, or susceptible to criminal influence). Money talks, there's too many humans for a life to matter much anymore. Wish it wasn't so.
2
Squirll Apr 12, 2026 +2
Feels like they just admitted the stock market is gambling.
2
matunos Apr 12, 2026 +1
Oh is Kalshi considered an open exchange now?
1
userhwon Apr 12, 2026 +1
Leave it to judges in the bag for Trump not to. The definition of a swap isn't this broad. Prediction markets are just gambling.
1
clouds_in_pockets Apr 11, 2026 +1169
Wild that we’re now litigating who gets to regulate betting on everything. At this point, states and feds should at least require radical transparency: publish odds, fees, and who’s making bank in real time.
1169
chaser676 Apr 11, 2026 +215
>publish odds, fees, and who’s making bank in real time. It's already 2/3 of these, right? Just need the *who* at this point, which from a privacy perspective is unlikely to happen.
215
Empty_Ad3616 Apr 12, 2026 +74
Isn't the loophole these sites use is that they're not bets, but "investments"? I think we should be able to legally see who's "investing" in these things. I'm not saying this is the law today, but there are a lot of public disclosers around investments
74
keithps Apr 12, 2026 +23
They're arguing that people are essentially buying "futures contracts" for events that will happen. It gets messy because futures contracts are kinda like betting. I buy a barrel of oil from you for $50 delivered in a month, you're effectively betting the price will be lower and I'm betting it'll be higher in a month. These companies are basically saying they just take a fee to be the middle-man for everyone and you're not betting against them or "the house" so its not really gambling.
23
BTTammer Apr 11, 2026 +137
State regulations already allow this. The CFTC does not. Kalshi and polymarket will be anything but transparent.  America has been sold to a den of thieves.
137
71-HourAhmed Apr 12, 2026 +29
Trump’s son is directly involved with both of those betting rackets, isn’t he?
29
Deranged_Kitsune Apr 12, 2026 +8
Probably on their boards in a job-title-only capacity. He's there to be a conduit to the old man and is likely paid handsomely for it.
8
DeathMonkey6969 Apr 11, 2026 +47
But it's not betting, it just looks, acts, preforms and reacts like gambling. You got to squint your eyes and tilt you head to the side a bit, plug you ears and go LALALALALA then it's totally not betting.
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wildwalrusaur Apr 12, 2026 +4
In the same way that Klarna isn't a credit card And EarnIn isn't a payday loan
4
Aazadan Apr 12, 2026 +2
There's legal definitions for gambling, which vary by country. It's going to be much worse for them long term not being gambling.
2
aretoodeto Apr 11, 2026 +22
Trump appointee because obviously it would be
22
eragonawesome2 Apr 11, 2026 +10
No, they should start raiding the headquarters and RICO all their asses. F*** that baby shit, these are grown adults CHOOSING to make the world a worse place for *everyone*. They have forsaken the social contract, therefore they are no longer protected by it. Get mad and stay mad and F****** DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. Contact your representatives, paint signs and go stand on their f****** lawns. Get a dozen people to go with you and call the local news to cover it before the cops can show up and arrest you for "illegal protest" (the dumbest f****** combination of words, if you're getting a permit to protest you're an idiot and will accomplish nothing. Become a *problem* for the people you are protesting against)
10
Navydevildoc Apr 11, 2026 +5
Sooner or later the Tribes are going to get involved and upend the whole system.
5
troglodyte Apr 11, 2026 +9
Just f****** ban it again. It's been horrible for society.
9
WSBiden Apr 11, 2026 +3
How exactly do you calculate odds on the color of d**** that will get thrown on the court at a WNBA game?
3
Aazadan Apr 11, 2026 +14
First you figure out how often that happens at games, mostly WNBA but sports in general, and then you look at the frequency distribution for d**** colors and determine a reasonable baseline for the odds. After that you calculate what the house cut should be. Then you throw all of that out because the person that's putting out the bet is 100% going to do it, and they're setting the bet up as a way to profit.
14
King_Chochacho Apr 12, 2026 +2
Yeah if ever there was a case for identity verification online, this should be it.
2
Aazadan Apr 11, 2026 +3
The odds are 100% when the people making the wagers are those who are dictating the policies being bet on.
3
fxkatt Apr 11, 2026 +413
>*The commission had sued Arizona in response to cease-and-desist letters sent to Kalshi from state gambling regulators and the criminal charges filed against the prediction market operator. The commission argued Arizona is intruding on its exclusive federal power to regulate national swaps markets.* So much for local control or state power when up against powerful federal protection for the gambling rackets.
413
MultiGeometry Apr 11, 2026 +171
Arizona should sue the feds because Congress never gave them the authority to regulate futures based on events. Let’s watch the SCOTUS twist itself into knots to ignore its ruling on the EPA and someone restore the Chevron doctrine for everything else.
171
magistrate101 Apr 12, 2026 +25
Don't worry, they'll release a decision that isn't allowed to be used as precedent for future cases where they carve out an explicit exemption for only that one regulator.
25
Coffee-FlavoredSweat Apr 11, 2026 +36
Fine then, Arizona should tax the shit out of any transaction within its borders. Wanna bet on whether or not Mr Beast says “subscribe” in his next video? 200% tax on whatever you bet, and if you win, Arizona gets half.
36
Baladucci Apr 11, 2026 +5
Something something states rights
5
albatrossSKY Apr 11, 2026 +442
The federal government is only ever 'overreaching' when it benefits the wrong people.
442
hedoeswhathewants Apr 12, 2026 +16
It's great how many blatantly bad things are allowed to stay around because the right people are making money off of them. Sign of a healthy society /s
16
CamRoth Apr 11, 2026 +203
Wow, one of the few times Arizona tries to do something good... and of course now it is a federal matter.
203
BTTammer Apr 11, 2026 +143
That's because it was a (D) Attorney General. When the (R)s are in charge, suddenly it's all about states rights and the federal government needs to stay out of our business.  Hypocrisy on full display.
143
wizzywurtzy Apr 12, 2026 +9
When it’s a Trump appointed judge ruling on trumps sons company then they can do whatever the grift they wanna do. F*** this country
9
goomyman Apr 11, 2026 +128
The us economy literally runs on gambling now. Sports betting, stock market (Robin Hood), crypto - with literal just Ponzi scheme gambling coins (including the acting president) and now fing anything markets. All of these are insanely unregulated and easily manipulated with insider trading. It’s literally free money for insiders. And the American public has realized the American dream is dead (working hard to gain enough for a house and family). The new dream is gamble and maybe get lucky to experience. This is all relatively new in the past 10 years. But I’m afraid it can’t be undone because of the hundreds of billions of dollars it’s now worth. All of it should be illegal.
128
JcbAzPx Apr 11, 2026 +30
Gambling and the money black hole that is AI.
30
royfripple Apr 11, 2026 +19
I completely agree. I'm astounded by how quickly gambling has taken over. It's so insidious and awful. I truly don't understand how anyone thinks it's okay.
19
75Highon_Vida Apr 12, 2026 +14
We've really opened Pandora's box with legalizing gambling around the country. It should have just stayed as a racket for the mob.
14
haoxinly Apr 11, 2026 +6
China had the opium epidemic, now it's USA with gambling
6
bbbbbbbbbblah Apr 12, 2026 +3
The US's embrace of relentless gambling has been quite a sight to see, and I say this as someone who lives in the UK where gambling was liberalised ages ago and it has caused its own problems. But at least those are issues like "online and machine betting makes it too easy for people to gamble all of their money away" rather than essentially putting out a contract on someone
3
DrowningKrown Apr 12, 2026 +18
lol it's so funny to me that in this world, you can go "well that's OBVIOUSLY a car. We can all see that it's a car. We're not dumb" and then some judge can just be like "hmmm well, no, they've demonstrated that it isn't a car, it's a small moving object with 4 wheels, duh. Get fucked" and then stop you calling it a car. Like, these bullshit apps are OBVIOUSLY gambling. But they're bribing their way past our legal system to the point that nobody in the legal system actually wants to SAY it's gambling, therefore do anything about it. It's so fucked
18
DeterminedThrowaway Apr 12, 2026 +3
"I have this other small moving object with four wheels, but it's obviously not a car right?"   "No, that one's a car even if you can't ride in it because Small Object Inc. lobbied for it. It gives them tax perks when it comes to trade and they're more important than you." Boils my blood. 
3
PrefersEarlGrey Apr 11, 2026 +56
Place your bets now if there was a Kalshi bet on if this ban would stand or be overturned.
56
McKlown Apr 11, 2026 +21
Place your bets on if Kalshi changes the wording of the bet so they don't have to pay out.
21
Empty_Ad3616 Apr 12, 2026 +8
This is why I don't trust these sites. Not only do they offer ridiculous bets (will Jesus return), they also refuse to pay out when something normal hits.
8
Meric_ Apr 12, 2026 +1
Thats not how this works. They are simply the exchange and do not care if it resolves one way or another. Kalshi does not "pay you out" if an event happens.
1
Rogue_AI_Construct Apr 11, 2026 +12
Of course. That judge is helping Trump Admin insiders get rich off of knowing what’s going to happen.
12
amateur_mistake Apr 12, 2026 +1
The judge probably bet money on his own ruling.
1
graveybrains Apr 11, 2026 +40
>U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi’s ruling means a Monday arraignment hearing for Kalshi has been called off. Anybody want to place a bet on who appointed the judge?
40
TheoryOld4017 Apr 11, 2026 +44
To answer the question (as if there were doubt), Trump appointed him in 2019.
44
Infini-Bus Apr 11, 2026 +26
So states are free to criminalize abortion and declare anyone they want a terrorist but they can't regulate gambling.
26
Aware_Rough_9170 Apr 11, 2026 +10
There was a Kalshi ad on the post…. The irony is unreal
10
thepianoman456 Apr 12, 2026 +10
Dude… F*** Kalshi, F*** Polymarket, and F*** anything that resembles those vile things. Not only is it a grift, and *horrible* for society, but it’s resulting in journalists being pressured to change their stories reporting on important events… because some idiots are butthurt they lost thousands betting on outcomes of the Iran war. These prediction markets are also a vehicle for corruption. I guarantee you there are politicians making BANK on these platforms rn cause they make life altering decisions. The reasons these things shouldn’t exist are blatantly obvious.
10
OlderThanMyParents Apr 12, 2026 +9
State’s rights- except when there’s money to be made.
9
DuntadaMan Apr 12, 2026 +9
So that judge had bets on the case. Got it
9
jgoose132113 Apr 12, 2026 +7
The judge is making too much money off prediction markets.
7
NY2GA23 Apr 11, 2026 +26
Sounds like the judge received a nice sum of money to agree with Kalshi’s lawyers.
26
wwhsd Apr 11, 2026 +14
The judge and his family probably made a fortune betting on the outcome of the case.
14
Pete-PDX Apr 11, 2026 +43
The swap market is a financial market where organizations exchange loan agreements or financial instruments, such as interest rates or currencies, to better suit their needs. It primarily involves over-the-counter contracts and is a significant part of the global derivatives market. The main types of financial instruments traded in the swap market include interest rate swaps, currency swaps, commodity swaps, and credit default swaps. Each type serves different purposes, such as managing interest rate risk or hedging against currency fluctuations. Kalshi is none of these things.
43
seridos Apr 11, 2026 +9
That's...half truth. Everything you said is true, but derivatives do much more than that and are used as often or more often for speculation than what you actually listed. Prediction markets are mechanically swaps. That's just fact. The argument is around what they are mechanically vs economic purpose, which is more nebulous. Honestly could go either way and both aren't unreasonable.
9
wildemam Apr 12, 2026 +1
Except that there is no actual 'insurance' use for a sports team winning, or a certain person dying before a certain death ( if that person is not the insured or financially intertwined with him).
1
HighTreason25 Apr 12, 2026 +5
And how much money has this b****** judge made on insider war death trading?
5
ohmyblahblah Apr 12, 2026 +6
Judge: let's just say it moved me....to a bigger house!
6
TauCabalander Apr 12, 2026 +6
So much for states rights. The Trump regime grift must continue.
6
Pleasant-Ad887 Apr 11, 2026 +10
Looks like Klashi purchased a judge
10
N3CR0T1C_V3N0M Apr 12, 2026 +4
You just know that judge placed a massive bet on “Is Kalshi going to win its case in Arizona today?”
4
Big_Bookkeeper1678 Apr 11, 2026 +9
So much for states rights. Remember when gambling was illegal in 48 states? Now we gamble on politics so that the politicians have ANOTHER revenue stream.
9
Extra-Bite2324 Apr 11, 2026 +12
Trump-appointed judge ruling in favour of company where the Trump family is linked to it. No surprise there whatsoever.
12
Sour_baboo Apr 11, 2026 +4
Call you Congress critter and ask him if betting on a football game is a "swap"? If he answers no, ask him to make that clear in legislation. They're trying to outlaw parents allowing their children to obtain medical services that MAGAs don't like, they can fix this thing that does actual harm and encourages the Whitehouse gang to gamble on their war "games".
4
OurSponsor Apr 11, 2026 +4
Let me guess. A ~~pedophile~~ republican owns Kalshi?
4
Space-Turtle88 Apr 12, 2026 +7
Donors and trump family members. 
7
OurSponsor Apr 12, 2026 +2
What. A. Surprise. 😐
2
c4upinhisbhole Apr 12, 2026 +4
Can we bet on this Judge having received a payoff?
4
Ecstatic_Wasabi_5166 Apr 12, 2026 +4
Judge just stopped arizona from regulating... that's gonna be a mess
4
napoleonborn2partai Apr 11, 2026 +12
The fact that corporations have so much say on how a government governs says a lot about this country
12
androidfig Apr 12, 2026 +3
The mafia is running the show now.
3
AggressiveSkywriting Apr 12, 2026 +3
Oh good. They stopped a state from doing something positive.
3
ludongbin1 Apr 12, 2026 +3
Sick of the kalshi ads… and I thought Kalshi was like a granola bar or something
3
SangersSequence Apr 12, 2026 +3
So if I put a dollar in a s*** machine and pull a lever and lose the dollar it's gambling. But if I "buy a 1 dollar contract" that "pulling this lever will result in the machine saying win" and it doesn't and I lose the dollar contract. It's not gambling. This judge is a joke.
3
tb03102 Apr 11, 2026 +5
I think I'll start something called a speculation bazaar. It'll look and feel exactly like betting on stuff but it's not. It's speculating so it's legal.
5
Neamek Apr 11, 2026 +5
Bought and paid for, by the "transparency" administration. So blatent, so corrupt.
5
eru_dite Apr 11, 2026 +3
That judge needs to be tarred and feathered
3
cotton-candy-dreams Apr 11, 2026 +2
My company already sent out a notice about this and how it impacts insider trading
2
yesright0n Apr 11, 2026 +2
Can you bet on a presidential elimination
2
drethnudrib Apr 12, 2026 +2
Because the stock market wasn't enough betting for some people, here come Kalshi and Polymarket to enable vice beyond our wildest imagination!
2
Somepotato Apr 12, 2026 +2
So should p*** websites make themselves commodity betting websites
2
Slighted_Inevitable Apr 12, 2026 +2
If they don’t like it, those three states could pledge all of their house and Senate representatives to join with the Democrats and impeach him. If this government is going to function after this disaster of an administration, we’re going to have to make smaller groups like they have in Parliament. Where are groups banned together and use their joined voice to swing votes one Direction or the other.
2
PurpleSailor Apr 12, 2026 +2
Next we're going to be betting on whether or not fly farts in the Amazon jungle. I'm usually for letting people do what they want but it seems like this betting is getting out of hand.
2
pcb4u2 Apr 12, 2026 +2
If it looks like gambling, smells like gambling, then it's gambling. Tell me what sports book isn't in a predictive market, and yes it's gambling. Kind of like futures trading.
2
suspicious_hyperlink Apr 12, 2026 +2
We need an article on how there was no bribery in this decision
2
tms10000 Apr 12, 2026 +2
"Once something is approved by the state it's no longer immoral" --Reverent Lovejoy
2
Throwaway021614 Apr 11, 2026 +3
These fuckers are ushering the downfall of society
3
PigFarmer1 Apr 11, 2026 +2
Imagine betting on military actions. How messed up would one have to be to do that???
2
Artistic_Humor1805 Apr 11, 2026 +5
Imagination not required. My understanding is that people already made money when the US first attacked Iran
5
rinasentri Apr 11, 2026 +2
So now Kalshi's free to predict the next judge's ruling on this
2
Titizen_Kane Apr 11, 2026 +1
Repealing PAPSA was a massive mistake
1
andyroouu Apr 11, 2026 +1
Judge got some bets pending…
1
RugerRedhawk Apr 12, 2026 +1
Can states pass laws that would specifically ban these types of "swaps" since they are clearly a form of gambling, that just operate in a different manner behind the scenes than traditional gambling?
1
[deleted] Apr 12, 2026 +1
[removed]
1
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