>The judge’s order said the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission had sufficiently shown that “event contracts” fall within the Commodity Exchange Act’s definition of “swaps,” and that it had demonstrated a reasonable chance of success in showing that the act preempts Arizona law.
Leave it to the Trump DOJ to have a reasonable level of competency when there's money to be made.
3479
Mobile-Bar77321 day ago
+1495
[Kalshi names Donald Trump Jr. as strategic advisor](https://news.kalshi.com/p/donald-trump-jr-strategic-advisor)
1495
12stringPlayer1 day ago
+653
They don't even try to hide the grift anymore.
653
Track_Boss_3021 day ago
+150
I actually bet that this would happen
150
Swordf1sh_1 day ago
+72
On Kalshi?
72
cire11841 day ago
+33
On polymarket
33
TheWolfbytez1 day ago
+24
Oh. You mean the other thing Junior is involved in, because why stop at one?
24
The_Grungeican1 day ago
+12
The people who made steady money during the gold rush, were the ones selling the shovels.
12
zatalak1 day ago
+3
'I'm playing both sides.'
3
Vashsinn1 day ago
+35
That's part of the filter. If you're smart enough to see I / catch it, they don't want you, you're more trouble.
They want those who can't see 2+2 =4.
35
ichigo28621 day ago
+15
The scammer modus operandi is on full display yet people still refuse to see it
15
Vashsinn1 day ago
+7
Again is part of the filter. There's a reason scam emails still have misspelled words. You think they can't transkate? Nah, if you notice the misspelled words you won't waste their time. If you don't notice it, you are the target.
Ofc people who do fall for it will probably always exist.
7
TheWolfbytez1 day ago
+2
No. We see it. Those in power to do anything about it simply refuse.
2
NDSU1 day ago
+31
They really don't.
There's going to be so many books written about how open, blatant corruption became the norm under the Trump regime
31
hydrochloriic1 day ago
+3
Why would they? Hasn’t been a problem so far and it’s way less work this way.
3
saintandrewsfall20 hr ago
+2
They never hid it. I always say, “there’s no secret societies, they do the evil shit right in front of our faces. No one pays attention and/or cares.”
2
GargamelTakesAll1 day ago
+135
Jesus that is the most corrupt thing I've seen in the past month out of this administration.
135
Mobile-Bar77321 day ago
+144
He's also an adviser for Polymarket and his company has a major investment in them.
[Polymarket adds Donald Trump Jr. as adviser ahead of US return](https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025/08/polymarket-adds-donald-trump-jr-as-adviser-ahead-of-us-return-00525444)
> Venture capital firm 1789 Capital, where the president's eldest son is a partner, also made a strategic investment in the betting giant.
144
willun1 day ago
+62
Wasn't this what they were up in arms about with Hunter.
Hunter, Hunter, Hunter, Hunter.
But when it is junior? Crickets.
Also, Hunter had qualifications. Does junior?
62
Unfair_Web_82751 day ago
+15
The investigations into Hunter were a road map of what they want to do.
15
blotsfan1 day ago
+16
It’s funny because if there was any pretense he got the gig for any reason besides corruption, a company would never allow a board member to work for their direct competitor.
16
King_Chochacho1 day ago
+3
Sounds great on paper but the 'strategy' of just knowing what the president is going to say and do in advance only works for a handful of people.
3
Aazadan1 day ago
+4
The position is a bribe so they're not shut down, not for insider information.
4
WretchedBlowhard1 day ago
+3
Sometimes, a potato can also be a d****.
3
The_Grungeican1 day ago
+3
The potato of consequences rarely arrives washed
3
Hugh_Jass_Clouds1 day ago
+14
It wasn't the threat to "end a civilization" that was the most corrupt thing in the last month?
14
Time_News_845222 hr ago
+3
It was the most deranged thing an US president ever said.
3
tots4scott1 day ago
+7
Nah that's Jared Kushner being anywhere close to negotiations while having a lifetime of conflicts of interests. Same corruption ball park though.
7
sr71Girthbird1 day ago
+6
Lol wait until you hear about the two Trump sons merging their golf course maintenance company with a military drone manufacturer so they can pocket 10 or 100 million dollar contracts from the DoD.
The justification is that "We're going to use the golf courses as a place to test the drones."
6
SpliTTMark1 day ago
+6
Kalshi: advise us
Don jr: zzzzzzzzzz
6
CreativeFraud1 day ago
+2
"This important addition to our team marks a major milestone for the future of Kalshi—and for how Americans uncover the truth in today’s fractured, often biased media landscape." I need to throw up...🤢
2
TheRabidDeer1 day ago
+276
I don't understand this difference of wordplay from Kalshi and others.
Like couldn't c*****'s now just open literally everywhere? "I'm not betting on my p**** hand, I am *predicting* that my p**** hand will win."
The end result is the exact same, the "process" to get there is just slightly different.
276
Actual__Wizard1 day ago
+76
Yes, it's a bunch of word games to try to get away with operating an illegal c*****.
76
The_Grungeican1 day ago
+5
It’s only illegal until it’s not, and most law is a various set of word games.
5
progrethth13 hr ago
+2
No, that is not how common law is intended to work.
2
lacegem1 day ago
+43
I'm about to go predict that a brown paper bag won't have drugs in it. I always lose the bet, but I get to keep the bag.
43
Aazadan1 day ago
+42
Ok, so basically in a c***** there's published odds of everything and the games are regulated. There is a specific mathematical chance, that is known in advance, of every single outcome where that's a group of players at a p**** table, to a pull on a s*** machine, to a game of r*******.
Sports betting gets a bit different, but at the end of the day it's still individuals betting against odds that are created by bookmakers of certain things happening for the starting point of a bet, and then the payouts get adjusted over time as the model relies on the wages being as close to 50/50 in dollars paid out as possible. And remember, athletes can't bet on their own games, it's illegal (and against their contracts)
Prediction markets are taking this a step further, and the market isn't doing anything to alter betting odds. It's just people making their own bets on things happening, and then someone agreeing to take the bet. So I can go out there and put up $100 saying I'm paying 10:1 that on April 11th and 8:59 est Trump will go on a specific fox news show, wearing a red tie, and give a speech where he says he just bombed an iranian oil well. And someone can put $10 on their side to take the bet. If I win I get their $10 and if they win they get my $100. The platform doesn't know or care what the bets are.
tl;dr:
Casinos - Specific testable mathematical odds in a game of chance, that are outside the influence of any individual.
Sports betting - Market based 50/50 approach of actions taken by outside third parties.
Prediction - Anonymous bets of actions taken with many of the outcomes being decided by those making the bets.
42
MovieGuyMike1 day ago
+24
>Prediction markets are taking this a step further, and the market isn't doing anything to alter betting odds.
There are definitely people in privileged positions manipulating the system.
24
King_Chochacho1 day ago
+11
Which is exactly what makes them so dangerous. Rigging sporting events is a tale as old as time, and here you have all the incentives but nobody's missing a title or potentially sabotaging their own career. As long as these remain anonymous they won't just be prediction markets, they'll be causality markets.
11
alphazero9251 day ago
+32
So it's a big c***** with a bunch of little casinos in it. By their logic, you can open up a c***** that just lets people run their own p**** games and give the c***** a cut of the profits.
32
thatwhileifound1 day ago
+15
The distinction is that most c***** games are more fair and honest than this shit. Think of the games in a c***** and they can all be broken down into clear odds in a strictly mathematical sense.
The bets here don't really have the same kind of straightforward ability to calculate the odds because the shit being bet on exists outside similar systems of control like game rules or set play pieces or whatever.
This shit creates the opportunity to make the worst stereotypes of casinos look f****** wholesome, upright, and honest. It's honestly nefarious as f***.
15
Aazadan1 day ago
+4
Sort of. Their logic is that you can take a game being played in an actual c*****, and then make bets on how the person playing the game will do. But really, that would be a step better than what prediction markets are doing right now, because that would still be fundamentally rooted on a game of chance and all else being equal should still even out (player action should be irrelevant in a game of chance on a macro level).
Instead they're betting on people taking certain actions, but the people taking those actions are in on the bet. So it's actually worse than what you described.
4
TheRabidDeer1 day ago
+11
OK, but what's stopping someone from opening a "b******** prediction market"? And in this market you have a group of people that own the establishment that has these events taking place. Everyone in this "market" is just playing b******** hands.
The person playing b******** hands says, "I predict I will win the next hand, I will put up a contract for $100 paying out 51:49" and the owners of the establishment say "sure, I'll take that contract". The platform is just the "market" floor with all of the tables, everyone else involved is just taking prediction contracts.
Or, to take that another route, you can have an open establishment where the owners just take a cut of exchanged contracts between other people.
Like I live in TX, where sports betting is still illegal, but I can go on Robinhood and there is a prediction market for every sporting event going on.
11
Aazadan1 day ago
+8
Nothing is stopping them, there's people doing that already on these platforms, and you can go a step up and see that people have been doing this on sports betting apps for a while too.
It's another reason why this prediction stuff needs to get looked at a bit closer by legislators and courts, but given how long its taken for payday loans to actually get something done about them (hint: never, because the owners of the large ones are legislators in many states) I'm not too optimistic.
8
smalls_18041 day ago
+5
A big difference is that for betting markets it's only users placing the bets. If I want to product the sun will rise tomorrow, another person has to buy into the contract predicting it won't. For betting, technically everyone can bet the sun will rise, and if no one bets that it doesn't, the "house" still has to pay it if/when it does
5
bigmacjames1 day ago
+451
Oh so nooowww they want Chevron deference
451
keytiri1 day ago
+78
It’s pretty clear this administration is employing the Chewbacca defense 🤦♀️, using AI to write nonsensical briefs in the hopes of something sticking.
78
Swordf1sh_1 day ago
+4
Aka the let them win defense
4
ptWolv0221 day ago
+6
Chevron deference was the idea that Courts are *obligated* to follow the Executive's interpretation if it was reasonable. In the post-*Loper Bright* world, Courts are not obligated to follow the Executive's interpretation just because it is reasonable... but that doesn't mean Court's can't agree with the interpretation, or something similar to it.
That's how questions of law work. Both sides make arguments and Courts then decide which side is right (if either at all; or to what degree each are right if they agree with some points one each side).
6
yoitsthatoneguy1 day ago
+4
That’s not what Chevron is…
4
michiganalt1 day ago
+15
That is not Chevron deference. The court is not deferring to the agency’s interpretation of the statute. It is interpreting the statute to see if it applies to Kalshi.
If it does, it preempts any state law attempting to regulate the same thing.
15
bufordt1 day ago
+33
I'm guessing he placed a huge bet (Sorry, invested in the prediction market) right before his ruling that Arizona would be barred from regulating prediction market operators.
33
ShortStoryIntros1 day ago
+20
Keep in mind... This freeze or pause is only temporary... It sounds like an official stance, but in legal terms, it’s actually more of a stopgap measure than a permanent ban on Arizona from regulating prediction markets
1. "Judge Michael Liburdi noted that it is still too early to issue a final, permanent ruling on whether federal law "trumps" state gambling laws in this specific instance."
2. "The judge’s order specifically pauses an immediate criminal arraignment for Kalshi so that the court can take more time to review the arguments from both the Trump administration and the state of Arizona before making a final decision."
3. "Other courts across the country have issued contradictory rulings on this same issue—some siding with states like Nevada and Massachusetts, and others siding with Kalshi. A temporary pause allows this specific court to weigh these conflicting precedents."
20
14Three81 day ago
+74
>that it had demonstrated a reasonable chance of success
~~Tell me if I’m interpreting this wrong, but aren’t they taking bets on the return of Jesus Christ?~~
e: I’m interpreting this wrong. See u/okwelcome6293 ‘s reply
74
PaidUSA1 day ago
+30
Yes, but as that would affect several markets there is a reason someone may wish to buy swaps on it to hedge against future risk. Not that that’s required but that’s the bullshit reason and as long as the Feds play along than it’s swaps. Because the Feds get to define those.
30
Easy_Kill1 day ago
+26
...this sounds like an easy way to make money off gullible idiots.
Step 1: pay the hindustan times or similar garbage rag to publish a series of articles intimating the return of Jesus.
Step 2: place bets
Step 3: ???
Step 4: profit!
I dont even think this is morally objectionable, really.
Edit: and hell, if you lose the bet, you probably have much bigger issues to concern yourself with. Like the Rapture or something.
26
kaisadilla_1 day ago
+10
I mean, that's the problem with polymarket. Most of the bets there will be influenced by specific people taking specific actions, and nothing stops these people from simply betting on yes / no then taking the action that raises their decision's value.
10
berael1 day ago
+12
> this sounds like an easy way to make money off gullible idiots.
All "prediction markets" are populated by insider traders blatantly manipulating events for profit, and suckers that they're stealing money from.
If you are using one of those websites, and you are not an insider capable of manipulating world events, then *you're the sucker*.
12
ChillFratBro1 day ago
+5
Yes and no. The return on a bet that Jesus Christ will not return in the next year is lower than leaving your money in an FDIC insured bank, and with slightly higher external risk.
It is free money, it's not the best return available for free money so no one's going to use it as an investment vehicle.
5
Easy_Kill1 day ago
+7
Thats why the media manipulation is critical! Use sock puppets and bots to spread the articles throughout Evangelical/MAGA socmed groups while using other fake accounts to promote the bet listings.
Shepherd the Flock, then fleece em!
If these muppets can be convinced to empty their pockets for freakin' Iraqi Dinars, anything is possible.
Edit: Oooh! Even better, embellish the hell out of the story and make it dramatic as all get out, then write a book about it with a horrid, attention-grabbing title like "Pumping and Dumping Jesus" *based on a true story*
7
OkWelcome62931 day ago
+13
You are interpreting it wrong. The judge says the legal case has a reasonable chance of success, not the bets on the platform.
13
KarmaticArmageddon1 day ago
+8
You'll never guess who appointed the judge:
[Trump, of course](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_T._Liburdi)
Oh and he's also a member of the Federalist Society, of course
8
dryheat1221 day ago
+15
Well yeah...if states are allowed to regulate this kind of betting, how are WH insiders expected to make millions by placing bets just before they take some action?
15
PatReady1 day ago
+5
Trump Jr is aboard Kalshi. Its all about this.
5
-OptimisticNihilism-1 day ago
+2
The trick to getting by state gambling laws is to just call it something else. How has no one figured this out before now?
2
psichodrome1 day ago
+2
This activity that is horrendously harmful can't be regulated because it kinda fits the definition of a "swap" (and probably 20 other definitions too, like gambling, or susceptible to criminal influence).
Money talks, there's too many humans for a life to matter much anymore. Wish it wasn't so.
2
Squirll1 day ago
+2
Feels like they just admitted the stock market is gambling.
2
matunos1 day ago
+1
Oh is Kalshi considered an open exchange now?
1
userhwon1 day ago
+1
Leave it to judges in the bag for Trump not to.
The definition of a swap isn't this broad.
Prediction markets are just gambling.
1
clouds_in_pockets1 day ago
+1169
Wild that we’re now litigating who gets to regulate betting on everything. At this point, states and feds should at least require radical transparency: publish odds, fees, and who’s making bank in real time.
1169
chaser6761 day ago
+215
>publish odds, fees, and who’s making bank in real time.
It's already 2/3 of these, right? Just need the *who* at this point, which from a privacy perspective is unlikely to happen.
215
Empty_Ad36161 day ago
+74
Isn't the loophole these sites use is that they're not bets, but "investments"?
I think we should be able to legally see who's "investing" in these things. I'm not saying this is the law today, but there are a lot of public disclosers around investments
74
keithps1 day ago
+23
They're arguing that people are essentially buying "futures contracts" for events that will happen. It gets messy because futures contracts are kinda like betting. I buy a barrel of oil from you for $50 delivered in a month, you're effectively betting the price will be lower and I'm betting it'll be higher in a month.
These companies are basically saying they just take a fee to be the middle-man for everyone and you're not betting against them or "the house" so its not really gambling.
23
BTTammer1 day ago
+137
State regulations already allow this. The CFTC does not. Kalshi and polymarket will be anything but transparent. America has been sold to a den of thieves.
137
71-HourAhmed1 day ago
+29
Trump’s son is directly involved with both of those betting rackets, isn’t he?
29
Deranged_Kitsune1 day ago
+8
Probably on their boards in a job-title-only capacity. He's there to be a conduit to the old man and is likely paid handsomely for it.
8
DeathMonkey69691 day ago
+47
But it's not betting, it just looks, acts, preforms and reacts like gambling. You got to squint your eyes and tilt you head to the side a bit, plug you ears and go LALALALALA then it's totally not betting.
47
wildwalrusaur1 day ago
+4
In the same way that Klarna isn't a credit card
And EarnIn isn't a payday loan
4
Aazadan1 day ago
+2
There's legal definitions for gambling, which vary by country. It's going to be much worse for them long term not being gambling.
2
aretoodeto1 day ago
+22
Trump appointee because obviously it would be
22
eragonawesome21 day ago
+10
No, they should start raiding the headquarters and RICO all their asses. F*** that baby shit, these are grown adults CHOOSING to make the world a worse place for *everyone*. They have forsaken the social contract, therefore they are no longer protected by it. Get mad and stay mad and F****** DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. Contact your representatives, paint signs and go stand on their f****** lawns. Get a dozen people to go with you and call the local news to cover it before the cops can show up and arrest you for "illegal protest" (the dumbest f****** combination of words, if you're getting a permit to protest you're an idiot and will accomplish nothing. Become a *problem* for the people you are protesting against)
10
Navydevildoc1 day ago
+5
Sooner or later the Tribes are going to get involved and upend the whole system.
5
troglodyte1 day ago
+9
Just f****** ban it again. It's been horrible for society.
9
WSBiden1 day ago
+3
How exactly do you calculate odds on the color of d**** that will get thrown on the court at a WNBA game?
3
Aazadan1 day ago
+14
First you figure out how often that happens at games, mostly WNBA but sports in general, and then you look at the frequency distribution for d**** colors and determine a reasonable baseline for the odds. After that you calculate what the house cut should be.
Then you throw all of that out because the person that's putting out the bet is 100% going to do it, and they're setting the bet up as a way to profit.
14
King_Chochacho1 day ago
+2
Yeah if ever there was a case for identity verification online, this should be it.
2
Aazadan1 day ago
+3
The odds are 100% when the people making the wagers are those who are dictating the policies being bet on.
3
fxkatt1 day ago
+413
>*The commission had sued Arizona in response to cease-and-desist letters sent to Kalshi from state gambling regulators and the criminal charges filed against the prediction market operator. The commission argued Arizona is intruding on its exclusive federal power to regulate national swaps markets.*
So much for local control or state power when up against powerful federal protection for the gambling rackets.
413
MultiGeometry1 day ago
+171
Arizona should sue the feds because Congress never gave them the authority to regulate futures based on events. Let’s watch the SCOTUS twist itself into knots to ignore its ruling on the EPA and someone restore the Chevron doctrine for everything else.
171
magistrate1011 day ago
+25
Don't worry, they'll release a decision that isn't allowed to be used as precedent for future cases where they carve out an explicit exemption for only that one regulator.
25
Coffee-FlavoredSweat1 day ago
+36
Fine then, Arizona should tax the shit out of any transaction within its borders. Wanna bet on whether or not Mr Beast says “subscribe” in his next video? 200% tax on whatever you bet, and if you win, Arizona gets half.
36
Baladucci1 day ago
+5
Something something states rights
5
albatrossSKY1 day ago
+442
The federal government is only ever 'overreaching' when it benefits the wrong people.
442
hedoeswhathewants1 day ago
+16
It's great how many blatantly bad things are allowed to stay around because the right people are making money off of them. Sign of a healthy society /s
16
CamRoth1 day ago
+203
Wow, one of the few times Arizona tries to do something good... and of course now it is a federal matter.
203
BTTammer1 day ago
+143
That's because it was a (D) Attorney General. When the (R)s are in charge, suddenly it's all about states rights and the federal government needs to stay out of our business.
Hypocrisy on full display.
143
wizzywurtzy1 day ago
+9
When it’s a Trump appointed judge ruling on trumps sons company then they can do whatever the grift they wanna do. F*** this country
9
goomyman1 day ago
+128
The us economy literally runs on gambling now.
Sports betting, stock market (Robin Hood), crypto - with literal just Ponzi scheme gambling coins (including the acting president) and now fing anything markets.
All of these are insanely unregulated and easily manipulated with insider trading.
It’s literally free money for insiders.
And the American public has realized the American dream is dead (working hard to gain enough for a house and family). The new dream is gamble and maybe get lucky to experience.
This is all relatively new in the past 10 years. But I’m afraid it can’t be undone because of the hundreds of billions of dollars it’s now worth.
All of it should be illegal.
128
JcbAzPx1 day ago
+30
Gambling and the money black hole that is AI.
30
royfripple1 day ago
+19
I completely agree. I'm astounded by how quickly gambling has taken over. It's so insidious and awful. I truly don't understand how anyone thinks it's okay.
19
75Highon_Vida1 day ago
+14
We've really opened Pandora's box with legalizing gambling around the country. It should have just stayed as a racket for the mob.
14
haoxinly1 day ago
+6
China had the opium epidemic, now it's USA with gambling
6
bbbbbbbbbblah1 day ago
+3
The US's embrace of relentless gambling has been quite a sight to see, and I say this as someone who lives in the UK where gambling was liberalised ages ago and it has caused its own problems. But at least those are issues like "online and machine betting makes it too easy for people to gamble all of their money away" rather than essentially putting out a contract on someone
3
DrowningKrown1 day ago
+18
lol it's so funny to me that in this world, you can go "well that's OBVIOUSLY a car. We can all see that it's a car. We're not dumb"
and then some judge can just be like "hmmm well, no, they've demonstrated that it isn't a car, it's a small moving object with 4 wheels, duh. Get fucked" and then stop you calling it a car.
Like, these bullshit apps are OBVIOUSLY gambling. But they're bribing their way past our legal system to the point that nobody in the legal system actually wants to SAY it's gambling, therefore do anything about it.
It's so fucked
18
DeterminedThrowaway22 hr ago
+3
"I have this other small moving object with four wheels, but it's obviously not a car right?"
"No, that one's a car even if you can't ride in it because Small Object Inc. lobbied for it. It gives them tax perks when it comes to trade and they're more important than you."
Boils my blood.
3
PrefersEarlGrey1 day ago
+56
Place your bets now if there was a Kalshi bet on if this ban would stand or be overturned.
56
McKlown1 day ago
+21
Place your bets on if Kalshi changes the wording of the bet so they don't have to pay out.
21
Empty_Ad36161 day ago
+8
This is why I don't trust these sites. Not only do they offer ridiculous bets (will Jesus return), they also refuse to pay out when something normal hits.
8
Meric_1 day ago
+1
Thats not how this works. They are simply the exchange and do not care if it resolves one way or another.
Kalshi does not "pay you out" if an event happens.
1
Rogue_AI_Construct1 day ago
+12
Of course. That judge is helping Trump Admin insiders get rich off of knowing what’s going to happen.
12
amateur_mistake17 hr ago
+1
The judge probably bet money on his own ruling.
1
graveybrains1 day ago
+40
>U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi’s ruling means a Monday arraignment hearing for Kalshi has been called off.
Anybody want to place a bet on who appointed the judge?
40
TheoryOld40171 day ago
+44
To answer the question (as if there were doubt), Trump appointed him in 2019.
44
Infini-Bus1 day ago
+26
So states are free to criminalize abortion and declare anyone they want a terrorist but they can't regulate gambling.
26
Aware_Rough_91701 day ago
+10
There was a Kalshi ad on the post…. The irony is unreal
10
thepianoman4561 day ago
+10
Dude… F*** Kalshi, F*** Polymarket, and F*** anything that resembles those vile things.
Not only is it a grift, and *horrible* for society, but it’s resulting in journalists being pressured to change their stories reporting on important events… because some idiots are butthurt they lost thousands betting on outcomes of the Iran war.
These prediction markets are also a vehicle for corruption. I guarantee you there are politicians making BANK on these platforms rn cause they make life altering decisions. The reasons these things shouldn’t exist are blatantly obvious.
10
OlderThanMyParents1 day ago
+9
State’s rights- except when there’s money to be made.
9
DuntadaMan1 day ago
+9
So that judge had bets on the case. Got it
9
jgoose1321131 day ago
+7
The judge is making too much money off prediction markets.
7
NY2GA231 day ago
+26
Sounds like the judge received a nice sum of money to agree with Kalshi’s lawyers.
26
wwhsd1 day ago
+14
The judge and his family probably made a fortune betting on the outcome of the case.
14
Pete-PDX1 day ago
+43
The swap market is a financial market where organizations exchange loan agreements or financial instruments, such as interest rates or currencies, to better suit their needs. It primarily involves over-the-counter contracts and is a significant part of the global derivatives market.
The main types of financial instruments traded in the swap market include interest rate swaps, currency swaps, commodity swaps, and credit default swaps. Each type serves different purposes, such as managing interest rate risk or hedging against currency fluctuations.
Kalshi is none of these things.
43
seridos1 day ago
+9
That's...half truth. Everything you said is true, but derivatives do much more than that and are used as often or more often for speculation than what you actually listed.
Prediction markets are mechanically swaps. That's just fact. The argument is around what they are mechanically vs economic purpose, which is more nebulous. Honestly could go either way and both aren't unreasonable.
9
wildemam18 hr ago
+1
Except that there is no actual 'insurance' use for a sports team winning, or a certain person dying before a certain death ( if that person is not the insured or financially intertwined with him).
1
HighTreason251 day ago
+5
And how much money has this b****** judge made on insider war death trading?
5
ohmyblahblah1 day ago
+6
Judge: let's just say it moved me....to a bigger house!
6
TauCabalander1 day ago
+6
So much for states rights.
The Trump regime grift must continue.
6
Pleasant-Ad8871 day ago
+10
Looks like Klashi purchased a judge
10
N3CR0T1C_V3N0M1 day ago
+4
You just know that judge placed a massive bet on “Is Kalshi going to win its case in Arizona today?”
4
Big_Bookkeeper16781 day ago
+9
So much for states rights.
Remember when gambling was illegal in 48 states?
Now we gamble on politics so that the politicians have ANOTHER revenue stream.
9
Extra-Bite23241 day ago
+12
Trump-appointed judge ruling in favour of company where the Trump family is linked to it. No surprise there whatsoever.
12
Sour_baboo1 day ago
+4
Call you Congress critter and ask him if betting on a football game is a "swap"? If he answers no, ask him to make that clear in legislation. They're trying to outlaw parents allowing their children to obtain medical services that MAGAs don't like, they can fix this thing that does actual harm and encourages the Whitehouse gang to gamble on their war "games".
4
OurSponsor1 day ago
+4
Let me guess. A ~~pedophile~~ republican owns Kalshi?
4
Space-Turtle881 day ago
+7
Donors and trump family members.
7
OurSponsor1 day ago
+2
What. A. Surprise. 😐
2
c4upinhisbhole1 day ago
+4
Can we bet on this Judge having received a payoff?
4
Ecstatic_Wasabi_516619 hr ago
+4
Judge just stopped arizona from regulating... that's gonna be a mess
4
napoleonborn2partai1 day ago
+12
The fact that corporations have so much say on how a government governs says a lot about this country
12
androidfig1 day ago
+3
The mafia is running the show now.
3
AggressiveSkywriting1 day ago
+3
Oh good. They stopped a state from doing something positive.
3
ludongbin11 day ago
+3
Sick of the kalshi ads… and I thought Kalshi was like a granola bar or something
3
SangersSequence16 hr ago
+3
So if I put a dollar in a s*** machine and pull a lever and lose the dollar it's gambling.
But if I "buy a 1 dollar contract" that "pulling this lever will result in the machine saying win" and it doesn't and I lose the dollar contract. It's not gambling.
This judge is a joke.
3
tb031021 day ago
+5
I think I'll start something called a speculation bazaar. It'll look and feel exactly like betting on stuff but it's not. It's speculating so it's legal.
5
Neamek1 day ago
+5
Bought and paid for, by the "transparency" administration.
So blatent, so corrupt.
5
eru_dite1 day ago
+3
That judge needs to be tarred and feathered
3
cotton-candy-dreams1 day ago
+2
My company already sent out a notice about this and how it impacts insider trading
2
yesright0n1 day ago
+2
Can you bet on a presidential elimination
2
drethnudrib1 day ago
+2
Because the stock market wasn't enough betting for some people, here come Kalshi and Polymarket to enable vice beyond our wildest imagination!
2
Somepotato1 day ago
+2
So should p*** websites make themselves commodity betting websites
2
Slighted_Inevitable1 day ago
+2
If they don’t like it, those three states could pledge all of their house and Senate representatives to join with the Democrats and impeach him. If this government is going to function after this disaster of an administration, we’re going to have to make smaller groups like they have in Parliament.
Where are groups banned together and use their joined voice to swing votes one Direction or the other.
2
PurpleSailor1 day ago
+2
Next we're going to be betting on whether or not fly farts in the Amazon jungle. I'm usually for letting people do what they want but it seems like this betting is getting out of hand.
2
pcb4u219 hr ago
+2
If it looks like gambling, smells like gambling, then it's gambling. Tell me what sports book isn't in a predictive market, and yes it's gambling. Kind of like futures trading.
2
suspicious_hyperlink14 hr ago
+2
We need an article on how there was no bribery in this decision
2
tms1000013 hr ago
+2
"Once something is approved by the state it's no longer immoral" --Reverent Lovejoy
2
Throwaway0216141 day ago
+3
These fuckers are ushering the downfall of society
3
PigFarmer11 day ago
+2
Imagine betting on military actions. How messed up would one have to be to do that???
2
Artistic_Humor18051 day ago
+5
Imagination not required. My understanding is that people already made money when the US first attacked Iran
5
rinasentri1 day ago
+2
So now Kalshi's free to predict the next judge's ruling on this
2
Titizen_Kane1 day ago
+1
Repealing PAPSA was a massive mistake
1
andyroouu1 day ago
+1
Judge got some bets pending…
1
RugerRedhawk1 day ago
+1
Can states pass laws that would specifically ban these types of "swaps" since they are clearly a form of gambling, that just operate in a different manner behind the scenes than traditional gambling?
162 Comments