Middle East ceasefire shattered as Iran strikes UAE and warns ‘we’re just getting started’

The enemy must always be the most dangerous thing but also woefully weak and incompetent.

“Thus, by a continuous shifting of focus, the enemy is at one moment a totalitarian super-state of unimagined power, and at the next a ridiculous rabble incapable of common sense.” The power of doublethink

MAGA is like the Olympic champions of mental gymnastics. More contradiction & dissonance in Trump’s statements than Anton Webern’s 12-tone concerto. How they manage it all without total collapse is astounding.

I think about this one a lot https://i.imgur.com/uaDDgYn.jpeg

It’s *never* nuclear war. But the *threat*, ah yes the threat… that creams the market’s drawers for sure. Keeps the economy going it does. Money in pockets of the wealthy, fear in the hearts of everyone else. Breads and circuses. Only the bread is stale and moldy, the circus all played out and tired and drunk besides.

During wars billions get pumped into industries, so it isn't bad for business. Economies after will take the hit.

Market is likely pricing in inflation due to oil shocks. It's going higher because it knows that money will be worth less than normal in the future, which in turn means companies are valued higher, because inflation. It was the same thing during the COVID recovery

market wont go down until profits go down, gas prices were kept low from reserve releases through Q1. Q2/Q3 reporting is where we might see retractions in the market if the straight remains closed and reserves run dry. If the war ends this month, the long term effects will be minimal. If it keeps going though, eventually we will start seeing the main street economic pain impact wall street profits. service sector losses first, think grub hub, uber, disney parks, etc. then it will move into banking, which will cause a disruption in loan availability, and any bubbles being propped up with unprofitable companies would be the last to go. this could happen fast, or it could take years to propagate through the market.

Wars are never bad for the stock market. Learn some investing history

You see the economy is doing really good, best it's ever done. Better than it did under sleepy Joe. Oil campanies are making record profits, never made more and we have more oil than any other nation. Our wonderful military industrial complex is about to get a massive infusion of cash from dear old Uncle Sam. In fact my dear buddy Zaslav just got a 300% raise. Now if the economy was bad, would he have gotten a 300% raise? What's that? People can't afford groceries or to fill up their tank? Oh don't pay attention to that, those are the idiots too stupid to ask for a small multimillion dollar interest free loan from their dad. What losers! - Trump (probably)

to the moon

We’re all fucked.

Don’t worry. A big correction is on the way. Volatility is the new norm. 

Think of all the jobs and spending. And that doesn’t even get into when prices are raised and then peace is made. Leave the prices the same and reap the profits.

Putting all your trust on the US seems to been a bad move for them. 

Option 2 sounds way better

You forgot the part where Iran just lashes out to several Arab nations in MENA. UAE has had enough of Iran's Islamic Republic bullshit.

The Hormuz Strait is not the world's most important shipping lane lol. Sure it's important, but there are others more crucial.

“we’re just getting started” , youre comparing a war thats lasted years, some say more that a decade, with one that started a few months ago.  and sadly if both sides decide not to end it it will end up being millions

The strait of Hormuz is not the worlds most important shipping lane It is the world’s most important \*contested\* shipping lane. It’s one of the four most important waterways but if the strait of malacca or Panama Canal were ever closed, I think China would stop playing the diplomat.

We're past it. Hegseth says it's irrelevant, and that we've started a "new" 60 day window since this blockade is a "new" operation.

Well, technically. The War Powers resolution of 1973 says that the President can perform limited "unauthorized" military action, but then the President has to: 1. send a report to Congress within 48 hours of the military action starting to justify it 2. stop hostilities within 60 days of initiating military operations *if* Congress does not approve further action "Unauthorized" military operations means "military conflict not approved by Congress", because in the USA Congress is supposed to have the power to declare war (note: the USA has not formally declared war since WW2). The *idea* behind the War Powers Resolution is that the President can quickly react to military threats and not have to wait around for Congress to vote on action. Of course, like everything, Trump and his cabinet are abusing this power. Trump bombed Iran on Feb 28, was in open conflict for several weeks, then on April 13 started a full naval blockade. Then there was a ceasefire, and it broke today. Hegseth is arguing to Congress that the ceasefire "reset" the clock on the 60 day deadline. Which is bullshit, of course. We started blockading Iran before the ceasefire started, and a blockade is an act of war. The question, of course, is what happens now? The Supreme Court has already declared that the only entity with the power to hold the President accountable is Congress. So... it's up to Congress to decide what happens next. And as of so far, Congress has not stopped Trump. Since whether or not Trump broke the law is up to Congress to punish, if they don't do anything, then Trump can continue doing whatever the f*** he wants with Iran. My theory: the Republican-controlled Congress will agree with Hegseth's argument that "we had a ceasefire which resets the timer", refuse to say Trump is doing anything wrong, and continue allowing Trump to do this weird back-and-forth war with Iran. At least for now. They (the GOP and Trump and his cabinet) need time to figure out their next steps and what exactly they want to happen. My crackpot, conspiracy theory: Trump and the Republicans are hoping to keep the war going on and off again to the midterms, so they can pull some legal bullshit out of nowhere to absolutely f*** with our elections somehow. I don't think they'll try anything as dumb as canceling the elections outright (too complicated to get into now), but they'll use the "We're at war with Iran!" angle as an excuse to pull some extra-fascist shit. tl;dr: it's up to Congress to decide what happens when Trump ignores the 60 day deadline. They might decide to do nothing and let Trump continue his on-again-off-again war with Iran for as long as it is useful.

The 60 day deadline is ultimately meaningless. Every president has ignored the War Powers Resolution because they consider it unconstitutional.

The ceasefire was agreed and Iran announced that they were opening the strait, then Trump said “we’re still going to blockade ships from Iranian ports”, then Iran said “well then *we’re* still going to shoot at any other ships”. Trump tried the whole military e***** idea, Iran shot at the ships but destroyers are really good at intercepting drones and missiles, so they shot at UAE instead. So it’s not that they necessarily *want* to break the ceasefire. But they definitely don’t want to let Trump dictate the terms.

Someone mentioned it was because the pipeline in the UAE is one of 2 pipelines that can be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Iran figures if they're going to suffer everyone else is too since that's the best way to get leverage. They haven't hit the Saudi one delivering some 6.5 million barrels a day, which I think is the other pipeline used to bypass Hormuz.

Adding ‘Iran bets on Polymarket’ to my bingo card.

Cause they know Taco Trump doesn’t want oil prices too high or US stuck in an extended conflict. They have all of the leverage and Trump is stuck. They’re basically saying, come to the negotiating table with more of our demands met or this conflict that you started continues until it tanks your economy and presidency.

It's pretty clear there isn't much the US is willing to do to stop them. The blockade isn't going to force Iran to do anything for months. The US isn't going to send in ground troops or leave their ships in the barrel to get shot at. Continued bombing isn't going to accomplish anything but wasting more munitions and endangering pilots.

I’m pretty sure terms of the ceasefire was that Israel would stop attacking Lebanon and the never did so there never really was a ceasefire thanks to them.

Because they correctly gauged that the US is unwilling to resume further hot war, since it will tank markets and markets are the only thing Trump pays attention to. Even Hegseth is handwaving the attack on Fujairah away. The US has escalated on their side with the double blockade and trying to send warships through the strait, so Iran is reminding them that they will not be getting civilian oil tankers through without coming to a deal first. Targeting Fujiarah is simultaneously punishment for the UAE leaving OPEC, creates even more pressure for the US to get the Strait open via a quick deal, and is a brutal counter argument to Trump trying to pump markets instead of actually resolving the situation.

The Dow still hasn't gotten back above 50k yet, though, so we're still allowed to be upset about child sex trafficking for the moment.

Sell now, 'cause it's going to be a massacre.

Ceasefire ends when Trump says it ends! (Ignore all the bullets, bombs, and combat activity)

I've kinda just tuned out anything the administration says about ceasefires or the state of the war since every statement is literally meaningless

Iran is disrupting Trumps rythm. Everyone knows Tuesday is TACO day. Iran ruined TACO day for Trump.

You're correct. The US has stated the ceasefire for the war that isn't a war that was won but wasn't a war that's over but never started because it's not a war is still in place.

Well i wouldn’t call them truthers

Oof

WAIT, HE SAID HE HAD CONCEPTS OF WINNING A PLAN DID HE EVNE SAY TAHNK YOU??? 😂🤣😂

Iran is not doing well at all. 90% of their top leaders were killed within the first week. War related damages are over 270 billion 3 to 4 million people pushed into poverty Inflation is an all time high, food prices have increase 100%+ 60% of missile production sites have been damaged 90% of large naval vessels have been destroyed Running out of oil storage, will be forced to halt production soon

> So is it still a ceasefire if we just don't shoot back? It can be. It's called a unilateral ceasefire.

Honestly, that's kind of how both sides are doing this. Iran is trying to scare energy flows through the strait, but trying to not trigger a massive wage of attacks. The US is trying to open the lane, but not with a direct massive confrontation. It could go sideways easily, but for now, both can say it hasnt really been a ceasefire violation.

They haven’t killed any soldiers, if they did I’m sure Trump would respond

if an iranian funded militia is attacking israel during a ceasefire than they were never agreeing to the terms