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Announcements Mar 26, 2026 at 1:56 PM

New Senate bill would ban prediction markets on sports, politics and military

Posted by joe4942


https://www.axios.com/2026/03/26/prediction-market-ban-bill-jeff-merkley

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ChocoboAndroid Mar 26, 2026 +1447
This needs to happen. It's a tool for blatant corruption at this point.
1447
Ohuigin Mar 26, 2026 +552
Couldn’t agree more. Which is exactly why it won’t happen.
552
quacainia Mar 26, 2026 +81
It'll happen right after we ban prediction markets for business, which is the stock market, so yeah never
81
ComradeJohnS Mar 26, 2026 +21
at least if someone tried market manipulating the stock market, it doesn’t involve literal nuclear war as a gambling option
21
quacainia Mar 26, 2026 +11
No but mass famine and an energy crisis could easily be on the menu
11
Blackpaw8825 Mar 26, 2026 +11
It literally just did. Bunch of rich assholes got advanced notice invest in specific oil futures, all of them made their investments within a couple minutes less than 10 minutes before we blew up one of the largest refineries in the middle east. They made a billion dollars off a single bomb. The guy doing the manipulation isn't the guy investing, he's the guy getting bribed.
11
ComradeJohnS Mar 26, 2026 +3
starting with literally gambling about a nuke or war is a good start. yeah people in politics or nearby shouldn’t be insider trading, or trading stocks at all. that’s another matter entirely.
3
Amatuer_Genius54301 Mar 26, 2026 +5
Something something party before country something wealth before party.
5
Rawrsomesausage Mar 26, 2026 +87
Trump's spawn are involved in kalshi and polymarket so it's going to be uphill to pass anything like this. It's so fucked.
87
frosty_lizard Mar 26, 2026 +64
Notice how there's zero pushback about Trump's family making vast amounts of wealth yet it Biden did anything like this they'd move in lockstep and screech from the rooftops about corruption. There is no saving the Republican party and the fact they're so open with overwhelming corruption should be investigated heavily once non cult members are in control again
64
StJeanMark Mar 26, 2026 +36
They never cared about Hunter, they never cared about pedophilia, they never cared about any of it. Every single thing they screamed about for the last thirty years was just what they thought was a convenient path to slander their opponents. Did not give a shit about emails, any of it. Time to accept that as fact. Their one and only belief is that they are always right.
36
NotJimmy97 Mar 26, 2026 +18
I think banning prediction markets rather than just prosecuting federal employees trading on state secrets kinda misses the point of the social issue we're trying to solve.
18
Lucky-Earther Mar 26, 2026 +7
> I think banning prediction markets rather than just prosecuting federal employees trading on state secrets kinda misses the point of the social issue we're trying to solve. The social issue we're trying to solve is the prevalence of gambling in this country
7
rocksoffjagger Mar 26, 2026 +30
Spoken like someone who hasn't stuck their head outside since 2018. The casinification of the entire US economy is an absolute cancer on the country and another weapon of violent class warfare against the working class who are the ones most devastated by it.
30
NotJimmy97 Mar 26, 2026 -1
Okay, but how are you going to enforce a ban that is evaded with a $10 VPN and a crypto wallet? Going after insider trading is legitimately the easier problem to solve and it's the one folks actually care about.
-1
FriendlyDespot Mar 26, 2026 +9
Easily. The people who would go through the trouble of getting a VPN, trading in crypto, *and* sideloading apps are a tiny subset of the people who download the Kalshi and Polymarket apps from the app stores and put in bets with little to no friction.
9
NotJimmy97 Mar 26, 2026 +2
That's not a problem related to corruption though. This sounds more like an argument against gambling on moral grounds due to the harm it can cause addicts, and you want the state to intervene and prevent people from making their own poor choices. Why not apply the same to alcohol, marijuana, and nicotine?
2
FriendlyDespot Mar 26, 2026 +6
Why try to change the subject and move the goalposts in such an obvious manner? You asked about enforcing a generalised ban on prediction markets, and I gave you an answer.
6
NotJimmy97 Mar 26, 2026 -2
The top-level comment is about corruption, i.e. government officials trading on confidential, top secret, or otherwise privileged knowledge obtained from their job as a public servant. I'm not interested in arguing about whether we should add friction to casual gamblers. Some people want the state to puritanically enforce their specific morals on others - other people believe that adults should be able to make their own choices, even if it harms them. We'll let the popular consensus see what wins in the next few years, but I think you could make essentially the same argument against weed or booze or Gacha or lootboxes in the same Reddit audience as this thread and get wildly different reactions.
-2
FriendlyDespot Mar 26, 2026 +3
If you don't want an answer to your question then you shouldn't be asking that question.
3
NotJimmy97 Mar 26, 2026 +1
I mean I'm sorry you think gambling is cringe, but the role of the state is not to enforce your values on other consenting adults. If you took your view to its full ideological extent on other issues, you would probably run into a lot of positions that you don't actually support.
1
thatoneabdlguy Mar 26, 2026 +8
>Going after insider trading is legitimately the easier problem to solve and it's the one folks actually care about. No, it's not. Prediction markets allow nearly anything to have an insider advantage. Get rid of the means that these people can use to leverage their inside information. I think gambling is stupid, but I'm fine if people wanna do it. I'm so damn tired of nearly half of all the ads you see being gambling in nature. Whether the markets themselves go away (here's to hoping), gambling ads (and I'm looking at you too, shitty AI created mobile gaming/gambling commercials) need to go the way of tobacco ads. Great if you want to do that- but no need to be inundated with that garbage.
8
Sleepingguitarman Mar 26, 2026 +1
While people could still in theory sccess polymarket style betting sites through the means you mentioned, those sites would have significantly less traction if there was a blanket ban on those types of sites. Alot of money flows in through the common everyday person who isn't willing to jump through those hoops in order to access them, not to some of those with the means would be swayed by the legal risk as well. Less money flowing in would mean that those with insider trading knowledge would be able to profit less, and those without the insider knowledge being less at risk of being taken advantage of. Now i hear you about going after the insider trading, but unfortunately like with all insider trading, many don't get caught and those with alot of resources at there disposal often can skirt the law easier or are given special treatment when it comes to the consequences. One major issue with going after the insider trading in these polymarket betting sites is that the span of different things that can be bet on is so vast, that there's just so many different places/people who could theoretically commit insider trading or do things purposefully with the intent of changing the outcome of the bet, or sway public perception. The amount of resources needed to investigate these things would be huge, and cases would just keep stacking up. With something like sports betting, atleast there's a much more narrow area to investigate when there's instances of suspected rigging/throwing/etc games with intent to affect betting outcomes and profit.
1
blacksheep998 Mar 26, 2026 +2
Why not both options?
2
NotJimmy97 Mar 26, 2026
The largest liquidity prediction market in the world was "illegal" in the US until late 2025. Take a wild guess whether trading patterns indicative of insider trading only started before or after that.
0
blacksheep998 Mar 26, 2026 +5
I'm not sure what I said that would make you think I believe insider trading only started with the prediction market.
5
NotJimmy97 Mar 26, 2026 +1
If folks can and did trade on govt insider knowledge on platforms that were illegal in the US, what do you expect a ban to accomplish?
1
blacksheep998 Mar 26, 2026 +4
So because there are other ways to accomplish insider trading, you think that a market which allows it to happen openly and at levels never before seen in history should be allowed to continue operation?
4
NotJimmy97 Mar 26, 2026
"Banning" the website and putting it behind VPNs and sketchy crypto exchanges creates enormous friction for casual gamblers and very little friction for a DoD staffer with $500,000 to bet, who knows for certain they will win because they heard Hegseth drunkenly slurring out US military plans in the Pentagon hallway. The point of a potential ban is to reduce legal gambling because it's morally repulsive to some people and has negative effects on society by exacerbating people's gambling addictions (not unlike alcohol and cigarettes - should those be banned too?). Reframing it as a corruption issue is irrelevant because a ban is not actually powered to address that problem.
0
blacksheep998 Mar 26, 2026 +5
> "Banning" the website and putting it behind VPNs and sketchy crypto exchanges creates enormous friction for casual gamblers and very little friction for a DoD staffer with $500,000 to bet It would make it harder for them to legally claim that money. Not impossible of course, but they'd have to commit more crimes by laundering it.
5
NotJimmy97 Mar 26, 2026 +1
> It would make it harder for them to legally claim that money. Not in the slightest. You cash out via a US-legal cryptocurrency exchange, claim the money on your taxes as cryptocurrency winnings, pay taxes on the profit, and it is yours. There is no law against this except perhaps UIGEA, which is famously toothless and essentially never applied to independent gamblers.
1
hyperactivator Mar 26, 2026 +2
Both need to be done.
2
somekindofdruiddude Mar 26, 2026 +1
How would the US government enforce a ban? We're all in on crypto just so people can ignore laws when it comes to money.
1
scarr3g Mar 26, 2026 +1
Thing is, that would just make the US markets not able to work on those bets. It won't stop foreign markets. Trump and his brethren will just bet there.
1
Cockyidiot1977 Mar 26, 2026 +1
Stocks next
1
TheCelestialDawn Mar 26, 2026 +1
More than just corruption.. Self fulfilling prophecies is dangerous too.
1
Zahgi Mar 27, 2026 +1
Does this bill contain any actual meaningful prison penalties for breaking this law? Or is it just a token fine that the rich (and/or the gambling company) will happily pay? And does this bill exempt congressmen and senators, etc. -- as all of these bills have done in the fine print for decades?
1
artbystorms Mar 26, 2026
If the Dems get power back this needs to be like in the top 5 of their agenda of bills to pass. I really don't think people understand how bad this will be for society if we let this continue and proliferate.
0
OwnCupcake6550 Mar 26, 2026 -15
Why ban sports though? Or even election results?
-15
Ceorl_Lounge Mar 26, 2026 +18
Because we have regulated sports betting markets already.
18
twitchtvbevildre Mar 26, 2026 +11
because gambling is terrible for sports??? do you enjoy betting on NBA games that players and coaches are scamming bettors on??? because the chauncy billups thing will continue to become way more common LOL
11
Sad_Locksmith_2904 Mar 26, 2026 +281
Good. It’s f****** absurd that Donald Trump Jr. can sit on the board of Polymarket and make millions off insider knowledge as his child rapist father murders people in the Middle East.
281
ClasslessHero Mar 26, 2026 +54
The psycho CEO of Polymarket is on the record saying that it's not insider trading. It's information. I was in the audience at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference where this little shit denied it was insider trading because "it's blockchain therefore it's transparent." F*** you Shayne. You spell your name like a bozo.
54
that_star_wars_guy Mar 26, 2026 +7
> is on the record saying that it's not insider trading. It's information. It would be awesome if you could post a link to that. It is evidence of insider trading. The "insider" part of "insider trading," IS insider *information*.
7
FrogsOnALog Mar 26, 2026 +11
Not sure that’s what this does but it would be a good amendment.
11
-The_Guy_ Mar 26, 2026 +14
People are insider trading on the war making billion dollar bets minutes before major war announcements. This bill addresses this obvious and sickening form of open government corruption.
14
KonyoBuMama Mar 26, 2026 +1
Imagine hearing this 20 years ago
1
Kneph Mar 27, 2026 +1
This is why it will not happen.  Donald will veto it.
1
Colonel-Mooseknuckle Mar 26, 2026 +179
It's a good idea, therefore our great leaders will vote against it.
179
clydefrog811 Mar 26, 2026 +43
The trumps own part of Kalahi. Won’t happen.
43
M4rshmall0wMan Mar 26, 2026 +6
I find it funny how I’ve never seen a Redditor correctly spell Kalashi
6
Sonichu- Mar 26, 2026 +5
*Kohlrabi
5
thegoodnamesrgone123 Mar 26, 2026 +3
I'm pretty sure it's Kobayashi
3
Lucky-Earther Mar 26, 2026 +1
Wait can we reprogram it so we always win?
1
amandapanda1980 Mar 26, 2026 +1
You want crab juice or Mountain Dew?
1
XVUltima Mar 26, 2026 +3
Its just a threat. "See? We almost shut your whole thing down. Pay us money and it wont happen again"
3
SuperJay Mar 26, 2026 +21
There's a reason gambling used to be legal every where and then was outlawed almost everywhere. Why do we have to relearn lessons ourselves?
21
Nac_Lac Mar 26, 2026 +2
Yes, this is America
2
gergek Mar 26, 2026 +72
FINALLY. How the f*** have they remained legal for this long‽
72
NeoMegaRyuMKII Mar 26, 2026 +38
Lobbying.
38
mechabeast Mar 26, 2026 +17
The rich made their money
17
Violet-Journey Mar 26, 2026 +8
The people who make policy are making bank predicting policy.
8
Ritz527 Mar 26, 2026 +5
Corruption. There's a guy whose last name is Trump that helps run Kalshi.
5
SilentRunning Mar 26, 2026 +3
Just about EVERY NBA team owner has shares in one or more betting app.
3
insertUserNamehereno Mar 26, 2026 +27
Gambling is the only addictive AND life ruining thing I see people fight tooth and nail to defend its legality. When people are willing to heavily tax any drink with high fructose syrup cause they think it will deter a bad habit but then have no issue with betMGM commercials running four times every ad break you have to wonder what’s going on with people’s priorities.
27
WTWIV Mar 26, 2026 +9
Alcohol and nicotine
9
PoniesRBitchin Mar 27, 2026 +1
The issue is nobody wants to admit they could fall prey to this. And I get it, because society is very cruel towards addicts of any kind. But the c***** or the app owners argue "responsible adults should be able to spend their money however they want!" and the person on the verge of ruining their life goes "that's right, I'm being responsible about it!" They hear arguments against gambling as arguments they're not in control.
1
Travelerdude Mar 26, 2026 +13
Won’t pass. Senate loves a good deal.
13
lyKENthropy Mar 26, 2026 +1
This is the optimist take on what Republicans will do. The pessimistic take is they will bet that it won't pass before voting on it to not pass. 
1
Closet-PowPow Mar 26, 2026 +22
And oil of course. Right? Right???
22
Specialist-Clock-914 Mar 26, 2026 +7
You can bet on that in the markets already and it has way more bearing on prices than any other betting racket.
7
Surturiel Mar 26, 2026 +67
Why not abolish the whole thing?  Gambling is a cancer to society, doesn't create any value, and preys on people's addictive behaviour.
67
B-Kong Mar 26, 2026 +1
Because if the population is too busy gambling on football, they won’t pay attention to the things that matter.
1
normVectorsNotHate Mar 26, 2026 +1
The line between gambling and hedging can get blurry. These domains are the most blatantly on the gambling side
1
PoniesRBitchin Mar 27, 2026 +1
I for one still want something to be done about the plague of gambling machines popping up in restaurants, gas stations, and strip malls. Gambling is becoming unavoidable. I can only imagine what a nightmare this is for recovering addicts.
1
PepeSylvia11 Mar 27, 2026 +1
It creates **tremendous** value for capitalism. And that’s all that matters
1
kinkgirlwriter Mar 26, 2026 -14
> Why not abolish the whole thing?  This, I agree with. Gambling, however, is something I enjoy from time to time and is probably less harmful to society than the smartphone.
-14
MittenCollyBulbasaur Mar 26, 2026 +28
Gambling needs to be a physically in person thing.
28
CardiologistPrize712 Mar 26, 2026 +19
Yeah, complete and total gambling ban of any kind accessible through smartphones. Prediction markets, sports books, f****** Robinhood. All of it.
19
Icy-Design6494 Mar 26, 2026
You can't ban stock trading. How would you organize that. You can only make stock purchases through a licensed financial advisor? I'm down to ban the entire stock market though.
0
CalamityClambake Mar 26, 2026 +3
>You can only make stock purchases through a licensed financial advisor? That, actually, is an excellent idea.
3
Icy-Design6494 Mar 26, 2026 +3
Lol. It's a tax on investing. I don't need a financial advisor to put 5k worth of etfs in my retirement accounts. That would just further privilege the 1% Personally I think if we are gonna have a stock market you should have to earn shares by working. You can them trade them or bundle them. Priviliging capital over labor is what's wrong with this country.
3
BeatxDemxGutz Mar 26, 2026 +4
But people gamble on their phones now. You can literally throw away money while taking a shit. Wash your money and poopoo down the toilet
4
thesmellafteritrains Mar 26, 2026 +3
Was at a friends house, watching some football game, and she was screaming at the QB to throw it to a certain receiver, because she had money on how many catches he had. Really distracting and embarrassing. Can't go over to that house anymore because she had to sell it to pay off her gambling debts. Her car and her boat to.
3
BeatxDemxGutz Mar 26, 2026 +1
The problem with gambling is that poor people with zero options use it as a way to get ahead. There used to be physical barriers requiring people to go to a c***** or a bookie etc, now they can do it from their phone.
1
brokenmessiah Mar 26, 2026 -6
It’s a free country.
-6
MrWaffler Mar 26, 2026 +11
Then why can't I smoke weed? Why does this fReE cOuNtRy never apply for helping people and only apply to keep harmful industries afloat? Were we not free before these recent floodgates opened? We made it a long time with gambling requiring a physical place and regulations. Why is it the freedom to ruin lives gambling and not our opportunity to have freedom from gambling addiction? I swear people have soundbyte worldviews, a phrase with 3.8 billion Google result entries is the best we can do? Freedom doesn't mean anarchy - it definitionally can't! You cannot have full freedom because that necessarily infringes on my freedom. If your industry is psychological tricks to vulnerable people that siphons their money how is that freedom? The Sackler family intentionally hooked people on meds they knew people didn't need but they knew were highly addictive. They made billions off of this and that opioid crisis STILL ravages us to this day. Why do corporations get to be so free but we the actual people are forced to have our freedom to not be addicted to drugs stripped from us? Gambling companies can have the freedom to use the same extremely addictive tools to hack brains for money but we the people can't freely decide that this shit ruins families, ruins people, and all it does it take people's money? We decided you can't just kill people or steal other people's belongings because those freedoms are a net negative and actively harmful to society. We know gambling, ESPECIALLY UNFETTERED ACCESS 24/7 ON THE MAGIC RECTANGLE GAMBLING, is extremely harmful and is sucking BILLIONS from people now. If we truly have any freedom it should be the freedom to stand up to this harm to our community and say #***F*** this, we're going down a different path***
11
CalamityClambake Mar 26, 2026 +5
Yeah? Then why can't I get an abortion?
5
Straight-Ad6926 Mar 26, 2026 -18
Agreed. Let’s also ban insurance. It’s literally just a bet between you and a corporation on whether your house will burn down.
-18
Semantix Mar 26, 2026 +25
Insurance isn't gambling, it's the opposite. It's hedging. And it's not addictive -- there's not a help line for insurance addicts. 
25
razamatazzz Mar 26, 2026 +6
You’re welcome to take yourself out of the insurance pool
6
smashinjin10 Mar 26, 2026 +7
Dumb f****** take.
7
Morgolol Mar 26, 2026 +5
No, that's risk.
5
Isredel Mar 26, 2026 +2
Considering how most insurances are widely despised, I’m not sure the comparison is really helpful to your point. We should live in a society where you don’t _need_ insurance (who will fight tooth and nail to not give you anything) because our safety nets are so robust.
2
xvx_k1r1t0_xvxkillme Mar 26, 2026 +1
I'm okay with that as long as there is an acceptable level of government assistance available. It would make a lot of sense to have all the money that currently goes to home insurance instead go to a government fund to assist with everything home insurance currently covers. We could cover all the same expenses at a lower cost if we cut out the people making a profit off of it.
1
Gjyn Mar 26, 2026
We could have a whole amendment to prohibit gambling, make it a fundamental law of the land.
0
JustARandomDrunkGuy Mar 26, 2026
We saw how that worked for alcohol
0
Gjyn Mar 26, 2026 +1
My point exactly
1
OwnCupcake6550 Mar 26, 2026 -8
Freedom. If people want to gamble let them
-8
Surturiel Mar 26, 2026 +6
So why not also decriminalize hard drugs, then?
6
DemadaTrim Mar 26, 2026 +4
Yes I believe we absolutely should. Do you think criminalizing them has made drug addiction easier to handle?
4
blacksheep998 Mar 26, 2026 +2
Decriminalization would actually be a good step since it would make it easier for addicts who want help to get it. A lot of people equate decriminalization with legalization, but that's an entirely different thing.
2
OwnCupcake6550 Mar 26, 2026 +4
Do you believe things should be banned just because they are harmful? Why not ban alcohol, p*** and many other things.  I would legalize hard drugs. If people want to fail. Let them. Freedom
4
AINonsense Mar 26, 2026 +2
Should that apply to ketamine, opioids, bathtub gin, and moonshine, too?
2
DemadaTrim Mar 26, 2026 +1
Yes.
1
OwnCupcake6550 Mar 26, 2026 +1
I mean alcohol is pretty bad and thats legal. As well as p***
1
AINonsense Mar 26, 2026 +2
You didn't answer my question.
2
OwnCupcake6550 Mar 26, 2026 +1
Yes. I dont care about legalizing ketamine anf other substances. We are all adults and we can make adult decisions.  But i also belive people should have the freedom to fail
1
AINonsense Mar 26, 2026 +3
With opioids, like social media, like gambling, it's not a level playing field. The table is stacked so steep against the user that they're truly only making an informed choice the first few times. Some people can deal with that, though not usually for long, but it means you're legislating for the tiny minority at the cost of the majority.
3
OwnCupcake6550 Mar 26, 2026 +1
From my exp the more you tell so.eone they cant do something, the more they are gonna want to try it. But everyone is also an individual and can make their own choices. I will agree its not a level playing field and most people gambling will lose in the long run. But thats why most people just do it for fun. Like i dont expect to make money, but it makes the games themselves more exciting. 
1
Potential-Fan-6148 Mar 26, 2026 +37
We should ban all forms online gambling period. It’s too easy to get addicted to and lose all your savings over. At least with casinos we can add monitoring and controls.
37
CalamityClambake Mar 26, 2026 +3
This.  Online gambling has become terrifying in the past two years. I'm middle aged, so we didn't have it when I was coming up. It is absolutely wrecking families, especially the men in families. There are three divorces happening in my cohort right now because the husband secretly gambled away their life savings, and one college kid who gambled away his college fund and had to drop out. It's ruining lives. And I'm sure I'm not even aware of all the single men who are addicted to it and "solve the problem" by taking their own lives. Gambling is attractive to middle class people who are desperate to make it to the top before they are forced to retire. Men are especially susceptible, it seems. Meanwhile, the wealthy that own the gambling companies control the policy that governs the outcomes of the bets, so the whole system is rigged. It's just one more way to suck money out of the middle class and make everyone poor so they have to work until they die.
3
HowardBunnyColvin Mar 26, 2026 +7
Kalshi, Polymarket et al have gone out of control. We need regulating up in here like Nate Dogg
7
Malaix Mar 26, 2026 +5
Modern society has completely burned away my "its your choice" stance on gambling as a whole. Sorry. Its society corroding. It should be illegal. Use your money to buy things. Use it to fix your house. Use it to start a business. Use it to support the arts. Anything that's f****** real. Not chance. Not chasing highs for an addictive behavior. Not on a get rich scheme that ends up costing your house or your kid's university savings or your family business. Gambling is a degenerate behavior and it has immense societal costs. Its never simply your choice. If you blow all your savings gambling guess what? Now you are a burden on society. Why should society put up with that? Ban it.
5
Basilrex Mar 26, 2026 +1
Ban the stock market as well all it is gambling and chasing highs its worse than any drug and has ruined far more lives than prediction markets
1
cbelt3 Mar 26, 2026 +6
Now ban insider trading for politicians.
6
Disastrous-Special30 Mar 26, 2026 +5
It’s gambling. Stop calling it “prediction markets”. It’s illegal gambling.
5
obeytheturtles Mar 26, 2026 +4
Just ban then entirely.
4
Protolictor Mar 26, 2026 +8
So....still no ban on using high positions of government to blatantly manipulate markets.
8
Glad-Assist-6230 Mar 26, 2026 -1
This is a step that way.
-1
Protolictor Mar 26, 2026 +3
Hahahahahaha....I'll believe it when I see it. Congress can't even contain themselves enough to stop insider trading amongst themselves. I believe it was last banned after the 2008 financial fiasco, and covered widely in the news. Then they quietly gave it back to themselves in 2010.
3
Dairy_Ashford Mar 26, 2026 +3
Trump is launching a prediction market, Truth Predict, through his media company.
3
jjb0ne Mar 26, 2026 +3
prediction market = c*****
3
ankercrank Mar 26, 2026 +3
Watch this law pass with overwhelming support, only to have SCOTUS strike it down since god wants kids to be gambling at school, or some bullshit.
3
Bluekoalapickle Mar 26, 2026 +3
Ban politicians from owning stocks.
3
penjaminglutton Mar 26, 2026 +3
Keep a close eye on any politician that votes no on this
3
Only-Friend-8483 Mar 26, 2026 +5
Interesting that they choose to regulate that instead of passing a law preventing insiders from trading altogether. 
5
2dazeTaco Mar 26, 2026 +5
They'll vote to ban this, but won't vote to ban congressional stock trading. They don't want the poors to have the same ability to make money as they do. *Rules for thee, not for me.*
5
Glad-Assist-6230 Mar 26, 2026 +3
Your comment makes no sense. These betting markets do not allow you to insider trade as a regular Joe. There is no equivalence. The prediction market is a grey area legally, and is being used by insiders to do exactly what you are complaining about Congress doing with the stock market. That alone is worth banning it.
3
2dazeTaco Mar 26, 2026 +3
Maybe I worded my response poorly, but that's what I'm trying to say. Congress banning this, but refusing to ban stock trading for themselves is giving a conflicting message.
3
Glad-Assist-6230 Mar 26, 2026 +1
Got it. My issue was ‘they don’t want the poor to have the same ability to make money as they do’. That’s not a thing here. They aren’t stopping ‘the poors’ from insider trading with this.
1
Beksense Mar 26, 2026 +5
Excuse my ignorance but isn't the Stock Market basically one big prediction market at this point? 
5
obeytheturtles Mar 26, 2026 +8
No, and this is the kind of cynicism which is driving acceptance of actual gambling. The stock market is heavily regulated and publicly traded companies have extensive reporting and accounting guidelines. Some forms of stock trading might look like gambling, but the underlying markets are bonafide investment vehicles. Gambling is chasing flips of a coin, even though many people fool themselves into thinking they can statistically predict stochastic outcomes. And prediction markets are even worse because of how easily they can be manipulated.
8
Toxitoxi Mar 26, 2026 +1
The “everything is equally bad, so it’s not worth caring about anything” mentality has been incredibly toxic for American politics. 
1
IRSunny Mar 26, 2026 +8
The difference between the stock market and prediction "markets" are that with stocks, you own a [tiny unless very rich] portion of the company. This gambling? You don't own shit. Also with stocks, their existence in the first place are companies selling off a percentage of ownership of said company in order to get cash. The gambling happens with people buying and selling based on guessing if the value of the company will rise or fall.
8
Nac_Lac Mar 26, 2026 +2
Stocks are less of a gamble via traditional ownership. It is a old relationship where you invest money into a company that will give you returns. Also, if I buy Apple stock for $1,000, there are very, very few events where that goes to $0. If it does, there are often huge warning signs. It's a pretty safe choice that you will keep the majority of your money in a crash. However, shorts, puts, calls, etc are closer to gambling for retail investors. Much higher odds of losing everything on a whim. And you will lose 100% of what you put in if things go slightly bad. Potentially more if you short and are squeezed. (Sell at 100 to bet it goes lower. But price jumps to 1,000. Now you are forced to cover your position by buying at a loss of 900 a share.)
2
AdPlayful8158 Mar 26, 2026 +5
It’s kind of interesting-why couldn’t they address this earlier? It seems pretty obvious this should’ve been done a long time ago
5
AngriestManinWestTX Mar 26, 2026 +2
Legislation and regulation are typically years behind current events and technology. I'm honestly surprised that it didn't take longer for someone to even propose a ban on something like this and it still has to pass.
2
halfsweethalfstreet Mar 26, 2026 +2
There is no way our lawmakers will outlaw one of their own revenue streams.
2
snoopingforpooping Mar 26, 2026 +2
You can’t have a prediction market where a small circle of influential people know or control the outcome.
2
recentgrooves Mar 26, 2026 +2
no more gambling on how many civilian deaths in Iran!?! PRUDES!
2
YoureProbablyAB0t Mar 26, 2026 +2
This one hundred percent needs to happen. Losing all of your money because of dopamine producing flashing lights sound like every young person will be broke in ten years. We need to find a way to incentivize productive behavior.
2
Nukesnipe Mar 26, 2026 +2
The only people trying to argue that this shit isn't gambling are the people making money off it. These have already been ruled as gambling in a bunch of countries.
2
Rough_Buddy6903 Mar 26, 2026 +2
But how will Baron make his money?
2
Devilofchaos108070 Mar 26, 2026 +2
Do it!
2
tavirabon Mar 26, 2026 +2
If they don't ban betting on published news stories period, reporters will still be targeted during some high profile bets.
2
Hot-Raisin-2364 Mar 26, 2026 +2
Yeah sure, blanket ban it for the rest of us while Trump and his cronies continue doing so in secret the old fashioned way, rather than tracking down and persecuting the ones doing this
2
midgaze Mar 26, 2026 +2
Honestly the entire economy needs to be nationalized to stop the rich from manipulating it at this point.
2
DonPepe181 Mar 26, 2026 +2
Didn't we just legalize gambling almost everywhere? Is sports betting and sports predicting different?
2
Rusty_Dustin Mar 26, 2026 +1
Sports betting is one thing. Prediction betting is different and a gray area. Where sports is legal but prediction isn't - so things like the super bowl betting, I could bet on the winning team and anything stat related, But I could not bet on the color of gatoraid dumped on the coach, length of the national anthem, etc. That's the difference. There's been a HUGE push in prediction betting apps. Down to the stupidest things like will it rain tomorrow, will trump launch a missile strike, etc. to where there's a crazy shit ton of money going through this and an absolute shit ton of users are signing up and using it. (just looked at one, there's a bet if there will be a shooting of 5+ people at a single location in the US tomorrow) There's so much money going through these with no regulation, it needs clamped down on. I don't know how you really regulate this either really
1
DonPepe181 Mar 27, 2026 +1
Wow. Thanks for the explanation. I generally avoid gambling outside of a friendly bet or two and didn't really know the depths to which it went. I can see how it could influence people to try to manipulate the events they are betting on. 
1
MegatechMike Mar 26, 2026 +2
America is one big c***** now
2
redheadedandbold Mar 27, 2026 +2
Overdue!!!
2
Shonkazilla Mar 27, 2026 +2
How can they insider trade then?
2
SayVandalay Mar 27, 2026 +1
Sounds like a positive
1
mogas1969 Mar 26, 2026 +7
No serious country would allow online betting markets in any capacity. The US is currently treated as giant c*****/economic zone and not a country of people.
7
OwnCupcake6550 Mar 26, 2026 +4
I mean its legal in europe
4
Jaded_Hyena_3522 Mar 26, 2026 +1
They're going to shut it down right after everybody at the top of the pyramid is done making money off it
1
Cobra-Lalalalalalala Mar 26, 2026 +1
I wouldn’t bet on it passing.
1
AINonsense Mar 26, 2026 +1
No chance of that passing, then.
1
boney_king_o_nowhere Mar 26, 2026 +1
Why lump sports in with politics and military? Typical midwit politician move.
1
Lincolns_Revenge Mar 26, 2026 +2
That's a little carve out for their donors at Draft Kings et. al. But I imagine it's also a situation where Americans in states where gambling is illegal are betting on sports on the prediction markets, whereas, in America, if we're going to overlook crime it has to be obfuscated by an additional step like buying crypto and gambling on offshore sites.
2
DylanFTW Mar 26, 2026 +1
Sports betting will be banned?
1
theanointedduck Mar 26, 2026 +1
How do you define politics done nowadays everything is “political”. I see longing for loopholes coming
1
brokenmessiah Mar 26, 2026 +1
There’s no way this get passed
1
generic_007 Mar 26, 2026 +1
Need to go after the users and not the markets. All this will do is drive people to VPN's and offshore ways of going about things. Won't stop the corruption itself.
1
_Asshole_Fuck_ Mar 26, 2026 +1
Genuine question- why sports? I get the other two but I’m ignorant about why sports betting would be lumped into this.
1
begon44 Mar 26, 2026 +1
Yeah this feels like targeting the symptom, not the actual problem. If the concern is insider info, then go after that directly instead of banning the whole thing. Otherwise it just feels like shutting it down because it’s easier than regulating it properly.
1
Tyfereth Mar 26, 2026 +1
Good
1
parkinthepark Mar 26, 2026 +1
"Senators solicit bribes from Kalshi & Polymarket"
1
Just_One_Victory Mar 26, 2026 +1
Can I place a bet that it won't pass and get signed into law?
1
Thesegsyalt Mar 26, 2026 +1
Republicans would never vote this into law. And shit you'll probably get 3/4 of dems voting it down too.
1
juniorone Mar 26, 2026 +1
What is the circumference of the planet earth? Because that’s how far I could see this going bad the moment they decided to implement it. The corruption was the goal.
1
Intel-Source Mar 26, 2026 +1
Then how are insiders supposed to make a living??
1
Senior-Ad8656 Mar 26, 2026 +1
Can somebody ELI5 the difference between that and the stock market?
1
LtLlamaSauce Mar 26, 2026 +1
Senators are heavily invested in the stock market.
1
Greener-dayz Mar 26, 2026 +1
Sports I doubt it passes even though in my opinion has ruined them to a degree. Everything else must be done asap. I also fear this bill is being pushed unfortunately with the wrong administration in power, who clearly does not have any morals.
1
jimohagan Mar 26, 2026 +1
Just all of it.
1
To-Far-Away-Times Mar 26, 2026 +1
Good
1
nohxpolitan Mar 26, 2026 +1
I got a small business deduction for my PredictIt winnings one year. Wouldn't let me record it as gambling.
1
bing-bong-forever Mar 26, 2026 +1
It’s not predictions it’s f****** bets as in gambling.
1
SanDiegoDude Mar 26, 2026 +1
> Banning sports on regulated prediction markets would just push this behavior offshore, where no regulation exists," Elisabeth Diana, a spokesperson for prediction market Kalshi, said in a statement this week. No, it'd put it back into the casinos and sports betting apps, where it's at least somewhat regulated. The nerve of these people, Jesus.
1
thumbtaxx Mar 26, 2026 +1
Cool, now do politicians and stocks
1
poppin-n-sailin Mar 26, 2026 +1
Seriously doubt this would pass lmao. as if. 
1
Carrotsncoco Mar 26, 2026 +1
Anyone know if this impacts MGM?
1
captialj Mar 26, 2026 +1
Someone in the Senate probably has money on this not passing
1
Wet_Side_Down Mar 27, 2026 +1
I wager it won’t happen…
1
PepeSylvia11 Mar 27, 2026 +1
Rules for thee, not for me.
1
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