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News & Current Events Apr 8, 2026 at 11:55 PM

Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement

Posted by lurkity_mclurkington

Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
AP News
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for those users.
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dtoddh Apr 9, 2026 +1220
Don Jr is a board member.
1220
plefe Apr 9, 2026 +308
He is also a board member for Kalshi.
308
JuneButIHateSummer Apr 9, 2026 +312
I just had to look this up and yes, the President's son is a board member of Polymarket. He is also a "strategic advisor" to Kalshi. Jesus. F******. Christ. Our lives are a game to them. edit: typo
312
ruat_caelum Apr 9, 2026 +29
Can we say "french solution?" or is that not allowed?
29
JuneButIHateSummer Apr 9, 2026 +12
Yeah, it's insane that our only remaining solution is heavily monitored and outlawed. I've been voting, I will continue to vote (if possible), but it's not realistic.
12
Pitamo Apr 9, 2026 +10
The French (dis)Connection.
10
silverado6314 Apr 10, 2026 +1
[ Removed by Listnook ]
1
saulsa_ Apr 9, 2026 +37
They like to have some diversity when it comes to grifting.
37
Schuben Apr 9, 2026 +9
"Oh, we got *both* kinds of ~~music~~ bet scamming! ~~Country~~ Kalshi *and* ~~Western~~ Polymarket!"
9
Beard_o_Bees Apr 9, 2026 +5
> Our lives are a game to them. I like to think that one day their lives will be our entertainment - so I guess we're sort of on the same page. Of course, i'm imagining something that feels more like *The Running Man*.
5
Key-Incident6020 Apr 10, 2026 +2
So then if it’s a game to them, can’t we defend ourselves and take the fight to them? Rise up and mob out. They do have security…but they can’t stop all of us.
2
Acceptable-Bus-2017 Apr 9, 2026 -2
Where's Hunter?
-2
JuneButIHateSummer Apr 9, 2026 +1
at ya mama house
1
LikeAPwny Apr 9, 2026 +17
These people have no soul.
17
theuncleiroh Apr 9, 2026 +2
Which means certain things are not to be prohibited. We don't farm humans, for example, but we do it to animals, and it's widely believed to be justified so long as it's not cruel. Take that as you will
2
RespectTheTree Apr 9, 2026 +10
Don Jr has a debilitating cocaine addiction and needs the money. Maybe Hunter can toss him an 8 ball so we don't have to deal with his grifting as often.
10
JerryGetAJob Apr 9, 2026 +1
He’s not only the president. He’s also a client.
1
Competitive-Ad-9404 Apr 9, 2026 +236
Donald Trump Jrs company 1789 Capital made a large investment in Polymarkets.  He is also on the board.  And the Trump Administration is suing states for attempting to regulate these prediction markets, even though many other countries ban them altogether. 
236
Ulysses1978ii Apr 9, 2026 +15
They really are some of the worst.
15
KindofCrazyScientist Apr 9, 2026 +1216
We should probably just ban prediction markets completely, but failing that, there should at least be a strict law against any war-related predictions on them.
1216
Kaffe-Mumriken Apr 9, 2026 +316
Yeah it’s f****** stupid. It’s like allowing people who can pic up and place the goddamn r******* ball wherever they want to make hidden bets at the table.
316
v2Occy Apr 9, 2026 +13
Wouldn’t work if other people weren’t also betting.
13
TurelSun Apr 10, 2026 +10
Which is why it should be banned or made illegal. If the solution is to expect people to just "stop" then you've already lost.
10
MaybeTheDoctor Apr 9, 2026 +101
And maybe accounts and bets should be subject to ID verification.
101
yamirzmmdx Apr 9, 2026 +138
Nah. We only need IDs for that p***. And groceries apparently.
138
WoolooOfWallStreet Apr 9, 2026 +42
And for watching YouTube, and for discord, and other stuff that it wasn’t an issue until very recently but what basically amounts to insider trading? Fair game! >!/s!<
42
JustGottaKeepTrying Apr 9, 2026 +4
And, for some reason, shoveling snow in New York...of all their ID claims, that one is baffling.
4
Krillin113 Apr 10, 2026 +2
Wait they don’t have KYC? Lmao, that sounds like fraud central 101
2
blankarage Apr 9, 2026 +46
guess who’s an investor in polymarket / kalshi
46
Rakastaakissa Apr 9, 2026 +37
I guess Don Jr! Or is it Kushner?
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blankarage Apr 9, 2026 +28
don Fing jr is investor in both, that motherfcuker
28
Almainyny Apr 9, 2026 +7
Bet you the big guy gets a percentage.
7
hagela Apr 9, 2026 +24
People who are betting on those sites are just giving their money to the insiders. I'd like to think the reasonable folks will just bet on other topics and everyone else will go broke.
24
MisterProfGuy Apr 9, 2026 +12
It's absolutely a stupidity tax, but we need to at least crack down on their marketing. I'm so sick of the news reporting the odds market like it has any ability to predict the future. It's not a prediction market, it's gambling. People aren't making rational decisions and it's rigged all kinds of ways.
12
nicoco3890 Apr 10, 2026 +2
It has ability to predict the future *because* it’s all insider trading. A lot of people do gamble, that’s how the liquidity is produced, but for any smart people or third party observer, you should be looking out for any big money movement made by insider and then act on it outside of the platform. The insider trading is the point. Either it’s all gambling or a way to gain knowledge based on insider trading. It can’t be both at the same time.
2
AlexHoneyBee Apr 9, 2026 +10
I think it’s time we start betting whether or not prediction markets become regulated.
10
ImpressiveAmount4684 Apr 9, 2026 +2
The polymarket agency is actively suing states that attempt regulation lol CFTC Sues Trio of States to Reaffirm its Exclusive Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9206-26
2
Novelty-Accnt Apr 9, 2026 +7
We should also stop using the mealy-mouthed marketing term "prediction market" and go back to calling it gambling. Give it back that slightly unsavory connotations.
7
TheKingInTheNorth Apr 9, 2026 +8
Options on tickers like $BNO or $USO are basically the same for market-moving geopolitical events.
8
overcatastrophe Apr 9, 2026 +4
And public policy.
4
Chiron17 Apr 9, 2026 +3
I mean, your Congressional representatives seem to get to trade with insider information
3
Anthraxious Apr 9, 2026 +2
And how do you define "war related" when the entire market moves exactly because of it? All these f****** "markets" are made to make rich people richer to begin with. Nothing else.
2
olivebars Apr 9, 2026 +2
That doesn’t really make sense, it’s like saying make p*** sites adult only, you’re not regulating some gambling site hosted in malta
2
FuzzyEmployment5397 Apr 9, 2026 +2
I actually have to disagree here Idiots who participate deserve to lose money
2
crazyrich Apr 9, 2026 +1
Ok, but hear me out, do we want the people fleecing them to be GETTING that money?
1
RedditsBadForMentalH Apr 9, 2026 +1
I agree, let’s do it. (Wait, how do we ban it?)
1
Ok-Energy6846 Apr 9, 2026 +1
An outright ban is the answer
1
Squire_II Apr 9, 2026 +1
Not only are we not banning them, but courts are ruling in their favor that states can't regulate them as the gambling platforms they are.
1
lII1lIIl1IIll1Il11l Apr 9, 2026 -11
it's already banned in the us
-11
Successful-Medicine9 Apr 9, 2026 +10
Clearly it isn't.
10
lII1lIIl1IIll1Il11l Apr 9, 2026 -12
yes it is, you litterally are not wllowed to place bets on lit lmao
-12
Thief_of_Sanity Apr 9, 2026 +1
What? Yeah you can.
1
lII1lIIl1IIll1Il11l Apr 10, 2026 +1
no you can't
1
EmergencyGrocery3238 Apr 9, 2026 -17
Oh my sweet summer child
-17
GetsBetterAfterAFew Apr 9, 2026 -12
As far as I know these Polymarket isnt technically operating in the USA they do have a NYC based office, so assuming youre in the USA, how exactly do we ban them and at this point theyre operating at a net benefit for USA govt, ie this fuckin article?
-12
KindofCrazyScientist Apr 9, 2026 +18
The same way it was before. The [Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket) on Polymarket says: "Polymarket blocked access to United States customers from 2022 to December 2, 2025, following a settlement with the [Commodity Futures Trading Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity_Futures_Trading_Commission), which accused the company of running an unregistered derivatives-trading platform." So we could go back to that again.
18
ImperfectDrug Apr 9, 2026 +11
Kalshi is the same thing and Polymarket is surely trying to get legalized in the US as soon as possible. 
11
LardLad00 Apr 9, 2026 +3
If you ban them you can make getting payouts very difficult.
3
ZZ9ZA Apr 9, 2026 +3
And much like they killed the p**** sites, make getting money IN a pain.
3
AudibleNod Apr 9, 2026 +282
It is the Administration's position this is NOT gambling.
282
Awkwardischarge Apr 9, 2026 +73
It's a futures contract with a 1 hour lifetime.
73
CoughRock Apr 9, 2026 +10
perhaps this how they plan to reduce the national deficit. Just keep insider trade until the budget hole is fill.
10
Spire_Citron Apr 9, 2026 +15
Nah, it's all going straight into their own pockets.
15
byerss Apr 9, 2026 +36
Correct. Gambling has to do with chance.  This is insider trading. 
36
awfulconcoction Apr 9, 2026 +34
Well I suppose it's not gambling when you have inside information.
34
aradraugfea Apr 9, 2026 +18
It's only gambling if there's a chance you lose.
18
Moneyshot_ITF Apr 9, 2026 +8
Trump Jr is on the Kalshi board
8
ShareGlittering1502 Apr 9, 2026 +55
30k bets when people are doing $100m bets on oil
55
ksgt69 Apr 9, 2026 +72
It's not just this, there was a bet that trump would praise Allah on Easter that paid big, there was a bet that a press briefing would be longer than 90 minutes and it was abruptly ended at 89 minutes. They are manipulating the polumarkets and more.
72
nowahhh Apr 9, 2026 +15
That first one [isn't true.](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/fact-check-claim-polymarket-user-221200523.html)
15
Not_Legal_Advice_Pod Apr 9, 2026 +65
It wasn't terribly controversial that Trump would announce a cease fire.   The party that was unlikely is that both sides would genuinely be in agreement as to terms.
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chainer3000 Apr 9, 2026 +10
You think it’s a coincidence Iran is asking for the toll payment in crypto?
10
Direct_Witness1248 Apr 9, 2026 +12
Using cryptocurrency to get around sanctions is nothing new
12
zoned_off Apr 9, 2026 +1
Yeah this is a dumb one. There are way sketchier trades before out of the blue Trump tweets. This one had a telegraphed date and time where 1 of 2 things was going to happen at a specific time, of course people are going to bet on it.  Edit: to be clear, the article points out the same thing I'm saying here. The dumb part is the reaction here acting like this is the big story when the prior ones were way sketchier. 
1
dpezpoopsies Apr 9, 2026
Yeah I tend to agree. I'm not at all disbelieving of there being market manipulation going on, but this particular data point might not be such a smoking gun. Trump was going to TACO and we pretty much all knew it. If I was a betting man, I'd easily have put money down predicting some kind of walk back by the US.
0
crapbag29 Apr 9, 2026 +17
This should be illegal. How gross are we as a civilization? Not that that is civilized behavior.
17
herrcollin Apr 9, 2026 +9
Not civilization. Country. America is doing this, mostly to Americans that they have addicted to gambling.
9
H0vis Apr 9, 2026 +3
Yeah the gambling industry now powered by phone apps is an absolute behemoth. Exponential growth.
3
Kewkky Apr 9, 2026 +31
Besides the obvious insider trading and all the idiots wasting their money on Polymarket bets by giving it all to millionaire government officials in hiding, betting on a peace deal was pretty obvious. Trump was posturing a little too much, and JD Vance didn't know about what was happening. No way would the VP actually not know when Trump and Hegseth will be "destroying an entire civilization, never to be brought back".
31
blackcatpandora Apr 9, 2026 +10
Ah, well, in that case- I trust you are enjoying your newly found millions!
10
Drostan_S Apr 9, 2026 +16
I am convinced that Donald Trump himself is betting on these things and then immediately issuing orders based on his bets.  It's almost the only way to explain the sheer buttfucking insanity of the last few months. Trump sees a high payout bet that he's the decision maker for,  bets huge,  and wins huge. He's so demented that he lacks literally any self-control
16
teddykaygeebee Apr 9, 2026 +9
This is insane and basically real-life squid games.
9
DirtDevil1337 Apr 9, 2026 +6
Not suspicious at all...
6
BacktotheUniverse Apr 9, 2026 +6
It's free money if you know the right people.
6
CardinalM1 Apr 9, 2026 +6
Who takes the opposite side of that bet? Why would anyone bet on this prop unless they were an insider?
6
fsactual Apr 9, 2026 +7
If you wanted to launder payments to the insider I can’t think of a better way.
7
Professional_Bat9174 Apr 9, 2026 +2
A good portion of people are acting on knowledge, some probabky on partial knowledge(i.e. "Suckers"), and then a wide range of gambling addicts(or those on their way to it)
2
colonelsmoothie Apr 9, 2026 +1
Just as in regular securities markets, suckers. To quote one [hedge fund manager](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/oct/18/banking-useconomy): >"All of this behaviour supporting the aristocracy only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America." But to be fair, the people who won during the GFC got lucky with their timing. They could have lost it all if the bubble held on for a bit longer.
1
virtual_adam Apr 9, 2026 +4
>there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent Not true at all. By 3:30ish the nasdaq went from -2% early in the day to positive. This article as far as I can tell is talking about bets that happened later. During CNBCs 5 o clock show Fast Money which has a recording on all podcast platforms , 1.5 hours before the announcement, all of the show members mentioned he that the stocks going way up meant there was 100% going to be a deal before 8 Unlike the beginning of the war that was obviously insiders, this taco was expected by everyone
4
AquiliferX Apr 9, 2026 +4
We NEED to shut this down the moment we get the chance
4
winter32842 Apr 9, 2026 +4
I don’t know why anyone would bet on polymarket when insiders know the outcome and can bet perfectly screwing little people.
4
Rattus_NorvegicUwUs Apr 9, 2026 +5
F****** just seize all their assets. I’m so tired of these elites acting like they are better than us. Set their net worth to $0 and watch them struggle to survive in the world they ruined.
5
NotGreatNot_Terrible Apr 9, 2026 +6
The second Donald Trump is out of office I really hope this rigged bullshit is prosecuted to the full extent of the law. This is leaps and bounds worse than anything Hunter Biden did and they wouldn’t shut the f*** up about him.
6
FluFlammin9000 Apr 9, 2026 +3
I saw a post a week or two ago talking about how a fuckload of money in bets was thrown down on polymarket in favor of a ceasefire being announced by early April, was pretty obvious there was insider trading going on. Tried to throw some money down myself after seeing that as the odds were f****** crazy at the time but found out people in the US can't bet on polymarket and I didn't feel like jumping through whatever hoops were necessary to do so.
3
jsta19 Apr 9, 2026 +3
I’m confused on where the payouts come from. Is polymarket itself like the c*****/house that has to pay?
3
eposseeker Apr 9, 2026 +3
I believe it's self-balancing bets. You bet whether option A  B or C happens. If you voted A and A happened, you and the other people who voted A split the money lost by the B and C voters.  If I'm very very wrong, please correct me.
3
daHaus Apr 9, 2026 +3
I don't believe for a second that the US treasury doesn't know who is benefiting from all this, the secret service knows The question is, what are they going to do about it?
3
danieldeceuster Apr 9, 2026 +2
Every sucker betting on an outcome other bettors control deserves to lose every last penny.
2
PerAsperaAdAstra1701 Apr 9, 2026 +2
This is basically a scam site ...
2
Ripraz Apr 9, 2026 +2
I hope the site will blow making lot of people straight out poor 
2
v2Occy Apr 9, 2026 +2
What’s nice about this is only the gamblers are getting fucked over.
2
Worldly_Anybody_9219 Apr 9, 2026 +2
Every time something scummy comes up in the news, Polymarket is involved.
2
mcpat21 Apr 9, 2026 +2
This just feels like a new form of money laundering
2
Chili-Lime-Chihuahua Apr 9, 2026 +2
Trump is very old. It will be interesting to see if they try to monetize his death. I mean besides all the tacky memorabilia they will sell. 
2
Ancient_Sun_2061 Apr 9, 2026 +1
Chump change , not the admin but just some regards
1
Oplopanax_horridus Apr 9, 2026 +1
The writing was on the wall, though. If I had a truckload of money I would have placed a sizable bet on the same thing since the big orange turd made his ridiculous threat. Don’t get me wrong, everyone involved with this admin is absolutely corrupt, and I fervently hope they face justice for their crimes and complicity.
1
toaster661 Apr 9, 2026 +1
You were worried about insider trading. They just realized they can create the bet and make money on it at the same time.
1
Syring Apr 9, 2026 +1
Why are they not being investigated by the SEC or other entities?
1
Zapdroid Apr 9, 2026 +1
Yes this is bad, but it’s only affecting degenerate gamblers so I can’t really bring myself to care.
1
TwoLegitShiznit Apr 9, 2026 +1
That sucks, but it's like the guys putting all their money into the seedy card game in Lock Stock and Two Smoking Barrels. When you play degenerate games with other degenerates in a degenerate venue, don't be surprised when it's not on the level.
1
doomeddeath Apr 10, 2026 +1
They just do it openly and don't care about anything. It's truly disgusting but here we are, USA 2026
1
funtimes-forall Apr 9, 2026 +1
Presidential insider trading is the new normal. Everyone understands that.
1
mass_mike47 Apr 9, 2026 -1
Not gonna lie, if I had an account I would’ve bet big too. Taco Tuesday?
-1
androidfig Apr 9, 2026 -7
I don't care about this because it's not my tax $ directly funding it. I do care about all the tax $ being funnelled into bullshit private accounts.
-7
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