Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement

Don Jr is a board member.

Donald Trump Jrs company 1789 Capital made a large investment in Polymarkets.  He is also on the board.  And the Trump Administration is suing states for attempting to regulate these prediction markets, even though many other countries ban them altogether. 

We should probably just ban prediction markets completely, but failing that, there should at least be a strict law against any war-related predictions on them.

It is the Administration's position this is NOT gambling.

30k bets when people are doing $100m bets on oil

It's not just this, there was a bet that trump would praise Allah on Easter that paid big, there was a bet that a press briefing would be longer than 90 minutes and it was abruptly ended at 89 minutes. They are manipulating the polumarkets and more.

It wasn't terribly controversial that Trump would announce a cease fire.   The party that was unlikely is that both sides would genuinely be in agreement as to terms.

This should be illegal. How gross are we as a civilization? Not that that is civilized behavior.

Besides the obvious insider trading and all the idiots wasting their money on Polymarket bets by giving it all to millionaire government officials in hiding, betting on a peace deal was pretty obvious. Trump was posturing a little too much, and JD Vance didn't know about what was happening. No way would the VP actually not know when Trump and Hegseth will be "destroying an entire civilization, never to be brought back".

I am convinced that Donald Trump himself is betting on these things and then immediately issuing orders based on his bets.  It's almost the only way to explain the sheer buttfucking insanity of the last few months. Trump sees a high payout bet that he's the decision maker for,  bets huge,  and wins huge. He's so demented that he lacks literally any self-control

This is insane and basically real-life squid games.

Not suspicious at all...

It's free money if you know the right people.

Who takes the opposite side of that bet? Why would anyone bet on this prop unless they were an insider?

>there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent Not true at all. By 3:30ish the nasdaq went from -2% early in the day to positive. This article as far as I can tell is talking about bets that happened later. During CNBCs 5 o clock show Fast Money which has a recording on all podcast platforms , 1.5 hours before the announcement, all of the show members mentioned he that the stocks going way up meant there was 100% going to be a deal before 8 Unlike the beginning of the war that was obviously insiders, this taco was expected by everyone

We NEED to shut this down the moment we get the chance

I don’t know why anyone would bet on polymarket when insiders know the outcome and can bet perfectly screwing little people.

F****** just seize all their assets. I’m so tired of these elites acting like they are better than us. Set their net worth to $0 and watch them struggle to survive in the world they ruined.

The second Donald Trump is out of office I really hope this rigged bullshit is prosecuted to the full extent of the law. This is leaps and bounds worse than anything Hunter Biden did and they wouldn’t shut the f*** up about him.

I saw a post a week or two ago talking about how a fuckload of money in bets was thrown down on polymarket in favor of a ceasefire being announced by early April, was pretty obvious there was insider trading going on. Tried to throw some money down myself after seeing that as the odds were f****** crazy at the time but found out people in the US can't bet on polymarket and I didn't feel like jumping through whatever hoops were necessary to do so.

I’m confused on where the payouts come from. Is polymarket itself like the c*****/house that has to pay?

I don't believe for a second that the US treasury doesn't know who is benefiting from all this, the secret service knows The question is, what are they going to do about it?

Every sucker betting on an outcome other bettors control deserves to lose every last penny.

This is basically a scam site ...

I hope the site will blow making lot of people straight out poor 

What’s nice about this is only the gamblers are getting fucked over.

Every time something scummy comes up in the news, Polymarket is involved.

This just feels like a new form of money laundering

Trump is very old. It will be interesting to see if they try to monetize his death. I mean besides all the tacky memorabilia they will sell. 

Chump change , not the admin but just some regards

The writing was on the wall, though. If I had a truckload of money I would have placed a sizable bet on the same thing since the big orange turd made his ridiculous threat. Don’t get me wrong, everyone involved with this admin is absolutely corrupt, and I fervently hope they face justice for their crimes and complicity.

You were worried about insider trading. They just realized they can create the bet and make money on it at the same time.

Why are they not being investigated by the SEC or other entities?

Yes this is bad, but it’s only affecting degenerate gamblers so I can’t really bring myself to care.

That sucks, but it's like the guys putting all their money into the seedy card game in Lock Stock and Two Smoking Barrels. When you play degenerate games with other degenerates in a degenerate venue, don't be surprised when it's not on the level.

They just do it openly and don't care about anything. It's truly disgusting but here we are, USA 2026

Presidential insider trading is the new normal. Everyone understands that.

Not gonna lie, if I had an account I would’ve bet big too. Taco Tuesday?

I don't care about this because it's not my tax $ directly funding it. I do care about all the tax $ being funnelled into bullshit private accounts.