> But of course the situation could change and, given the long incubation period of the virus, it's possible we might see more cases in the coming weeks
What a meaningless news story. We won't know for weeks if this was contained or not.
103
cubsgirl1011 day ago
+31
To be fair, it’s almost a 100% guarantee there will be more cases during the rest of the incubation period. The key is to isolate potential cases long before anyone becomes symptomatic and is able to spread the illness, all evidence so far based on all the Andes outbreaks indicates that someone is most likely to pass on the virus from prolonged contact when they begin showing symptoms (as opposed to COVID spreading asymptomatically through lingering virus particles in the air.)
31
Thurak01 day ago
+20
At this point the key should be that all new cases happen with people in quarantine. Everything else means the outbreak is not contained and with the long incubation period tracing contacts of new cases over several weeks is just not feasible/reliable doable.
20
cubsgirl1011 day ago
+6
The big “what if” is going to be ensuring that health authorities have consistent contact with the passengers who left the ship early during the incubation period. One of those people getting sick and getting someone else ill would be how this spreads, but even then this is a fairly uncontagious virus despite this being a strain that allows for human to human transmission. The virus genome sequence is stable, it’s not mutating to become easier to spread, and unlike covid, passive contact with someone sick isn’t going to get you sick.
6
Thurak01 day ago
+2
> but even then this is a fairly uncontagious virus
Aren't there 8 confirmed cases by now? I know, cruise ships are virus transmission hubs, but at the moment I *hope* it's still very uncontagious, but I have serious doubts.
2
cubsgirl1011 day ago
+7
8 confirmed cases is very pretty low when you’re on a ship of 200 or so people. Comparatively, the cruise ship with norovirus infected nearly 200 people in a much shorter time span. Nearly every health expert is saying this is a virus that doesn’t spread easily and it’s behaving exactly like they expect. With the overwhelming majority of ship passengers currently in quarantine, the likelihood this continues to slowly spread doesn’t seem particularly high.
7
candyappleorchard1 day ago
+6
A small cruise ship at that. The Hondius is built to navigate unique water environments and is many times smaller than your average Carnival or Disney cruise ship, which are petri dishes even with all that extra space.
6
bledviolet1 day ago
-2
18 according to recent tracker. With an R0 of up to 2.12 if epuyén variant.
-2
Thurak01 day ago
+3
Do you have a source for the 18 confirmed cases?
3
ahBoof10 hr ago
+1
Rt of .98 when protocols are known
1
bledviolet1 day ago
+4
The problem is that it's infectious just in the prodromal phase. I.e having just a fever is when virus shedding has been shown to be most prevalent.
No one gives a rats ass about each other and just goes to work even if they have a mild fever which is often apparently how this virus first presents itself.
4
nicuramar1 day ago
-6
> To be fair, it’s almost a 100% guarantee there will be more cases during the rest of the incubation period
No it’s not. We can’t make that assertion.
-6
cubsgirl1011 day ago
+5
You can though nearly guarantee someone in isolation will end up testing positive for the virus during the incubation period. We already saw someone begin presenting symptoms during the evacuation flight from the ship to the quarantine zone. But this is to be expected.
5
Friendly_Soil66171 day ago
+4
it’s always like that
4
robipresotto1 day ago
-6
Yep, so they can spread it properly
-6
Volderon901 day ago
+37
Well it’s good we don’t have tons of people travelling in a month for a World Cup or anything.
37
droom21 day ago
+7
With people from the same country where the outbreak begin with, at least they are not favorites to stay til the finals, right?
7
TactitcalPterodactyl20 hr ago
+7
"We're all safe for now, until that changes. Then we're fucked."
7
Dan191 day ago
+15
Man, I can't believe Tedros still holds that position. Proved to be unfit for his job back in the covid days, and has already proven to be unfit again. Jesus christ.
15
Jarltruc1 day ago
+1
The World Health Organization is a f****** joke
1
Xsiah22 hr ago
+6
Yeah let's just take RFK Jr's word on everything instead 🙄
6
[deleted]1 day ago
+2
[deleted]
2
nicuramar1 day ago
+5
A note: it’s not a strain. Hantavirus is a group of viruses. This is the Andes virus.
5
JonWilso1 day ago
+1
Try again without ChatGPT.
1
coolboy8561 day ago
-1
>It is a terrifying reminder of how fast a ship incident can become a global health priority.
That's hilarious, let me know the amount of cases in 3 weeks
-1
hippodribble1 day ago
+1
Relax. It's only contagious if you, er, catch it.
1
yamanagashi1 day ago
-7
They really should stop making this hantavirus a thing. It’s never going to be a thing. Call the next economic collapse what it is - a lack of oversight with AI investments, imploding Yen with no other country willing to buck the loans, and an inevitable global fuel and hydrocarbon crisis.
-7
spunkfish2421 hr ago
+1
But wait…there’s more!
1
hpxb1 day ago
-7
Absolutely everything I am reading from legitimate, Ivy League trained experts in relevant fields (e.g., virology) is that this has the potential to be pandemic and that they quite literally know very little about how this strain functions because it is so rare and under-researched. This isn't good, people. The language and messaging from public health mimics early COVID. Don't forget that the language of medical professionals and public health officials shifted dramatically during the early stages of COVID, transitioning from this is nothing, to maybe it's kind of something, to let's all quarantine for 2 weeks to flatten the curve, to we have a global pandemic on our ends. I genuinely believe that's the direction we are heading with this strain of the hantavirus. I welcome any rational reassurance.
-7
HurlinVermin19 hr ago
+3
I think you are beyond reassuring.
3
Xsiah22 hr ago
+3
If your fear is irrational there is no rational argument that can be made to reassure you.
3
hpxb22 hr ago
-3
That genuinely isn't true, and is a very lazy and dismissive way to respond. I am open to hearing what aspects of my concern you feel are irrational.
-3
Xsiah22 hr ago
+3
_Eight_ people in the world have it. The chance of them spreading it was already low, but now they're quarantined on top of that.
Meanwhile 3000 kids in the US have had measles this year, and nobody seems to particularly care.
3
hpxb20 hr ago
-4
Because we have a vaccine for measles. Are you kidding?
11 people have it right now, and it has a 2 to 8 week incubation period, meaning that cases will inevitably grow. From previous research done on the 2018 Andes hantavirus outbreak, the estimated transmission rate is approx. 2.08, meaning that every person who tested positive gave it to approximately 2 other people. Doctors and public health officials have indicated that the transmission rate on the boat fits that based on contact tracing. That's akin to the flu in terms of viral contagion. They stopped the outbreak in Argentina because it happened in 3 remote towns that they could effectively quarantine. This has spread it across the world, so we are likely going to see cases grow at that rate on a much, much larger scale. Then add in the fact that the hantavirus has a 30% to 60% fatality rate, and this could be horrific.
If you read the research done on the 2018 outbreak, scientists are extremely clear that 1) it spreads via human contact, 2) it does not require extended or intimate contact, and 3) it has a 2 to 8 week incubation period where it is variably contagious. Those with known illness are not the only ones who can spread this disease, and I believe approximately 30 people left the boat without tracing. Additionally, the second person to die (the female partner of the first patient who died) boarded a four-hour flight to South Africa, exposing over 80 people on the plane alone, let alone everyone she interacted with on the way there. You are being naive if you think it's as simple as "8 people got it and they're quarantined."
-4
HurlinVermin19 hr ago
+6
It is spread through close contact, not through the air, so it is nothing like the flu.
6
Xsiah18 hr ago
+2
Like I said, I can't give you any reasonable argument, because you are already attached to the idea that the facts that you listed are catastrophic, rather than mundane.
Every time something like this happens, the "do your own research" crowd crawls out to find the scariest possible thing that they can online, despite not having any kind of education that would let them understand the problem correctly, and start pretending that they know something that scientists don't.
We've seen it with MMR vaccines, we've seen it with global warming, and here we go again.
2
ComfortableAncient461 day ago
-1
Yet
-1
w9898721 day ago
-6
Now please remind me of the four stage response to a crisis
-6
Pantsickle1 day ago
-9
Ahh man, I was really looking forward to staying inside and fearing for my life for a year, too.
-9
Floreat_democratia1 day ago
+3
42 day quarantine window for hanta so far. Makes the last pandemic look like a picnic.
3
fightfire_withfire1 day ago
-24
Obviously. The real question should be what is this being used as a distraction from.
-24
ResidentNo111 day ago
+11
People getting a virus that's been present for a while in Argentina is not happening to distract you. Get off the internet.
11
ThunderChaser23 hr ago
+4
Yes you’re so smart, people getting sick on a cruise ship and the WHO doing their job and monitoring it is all part of the grand conspiracy to keep you distracted from the Epstein Files. Where would we be without your insight.
4
Xsiah22 hr ago
+1
It's to keep you glued to the news cycle to generate revenue for everyone who is providing "updates" every time someone in quarantine sneezes.
1
Interesting-Type-9081 day ago
-15
Bullshit. Next I'll hear how school shootings have suddenly stopped in the States.
-15
happy-cig19 hr ago
-10
The left says there is a pandemic the right says there isn't a pandemic. And we go around again!
-10
[deleted]16 hr ago
+8
Absolutely no left media has declared a pandemic. You are 100% making that up.
I see plenty of FOX News clips covering this hysterically, however.
47 Comments