· 109 comments · Save ·
Announcements Mar 30, 2026 at 8:11 AM

Oil volatility is high, Could this actually cause a global recession, and how would it affect regular people?

Posted by Lopsided_Bar3451

🚩 Report this post

109 Comments

Sign in to comment — or just click the box below.
🔒 Your email is never shown publicly.
HoneyRebellee Mar 30, 2026 +362
gas prices become a horror story and suddenly youre doing math at the grocery store. everything costs more but your paycheck stays the same. thats the whole trick.
362
eugeneugene Mar 30, 2026 +130
I'm already doing math at the grocery store. Am I gonna have to start doing physics
130
Ragazzano Mar 30, 2026 +121
Yes, "how much shit can I carry while running at full speed"
121
raunchypellets Mar 30, 2026 +22
Whilst avoiding small metal objects describing a parabolic arc at high speeds.
22
senatorb Mar 30, 2026 +7
With potentially catastrophic results. Then you’re into game theory.
7
JamesTheJerk Mar 30, 2026 +6
And can I carry more items if I'm juggling them, but than again, is that *truly* carrying them?
6
Hobowookiee Mar 30, 2026 +1
This guy game theories
1
Kitchen-Jackfruit680 Mar 30, 2026 +1
Supermarkets hate this one trick.
1
OneTwoThreePooAndPee Mar 30, 2026 +18
Then when oil prices come back down, the prices at the grocery store may not.
18
nom_of_your_business Mar 30, 2026 +1
May?
1
1word2word Mar 30, 2026 +1
*will not
1
Intel_Oil Mar 30, 2026 +1
Idk, this might be a thing in america. But Milk & Butter were cheaper in January 2026 than they were pre-Covid hikes here. But we have official price regulators.
1
Open-Butterfly-5288 Mar 30, 2026 +19
Also the government announcing emergency measures that amount to "You can't work, you understand right?"
19
EnthusiasticDirtMark Mar 30, 2026 +7
what does this mean?
7
stevey_frac Mar 30, 2026 +1
I'm going to take Japan as an example.  They have enough fuel stored for three weeks.  Because tankers are slow, they've actually still been getting deliveries from the middle East.  The last of those will arrive in about a week.  Once that ship arrives, they're are no more deliveries of oil, and they're isn't enough oil being produced and sold in the world to meet the amount that everyone burns.  So Japan will struggle to buy more oil, and they'll do it by buying oil deliveries destined for mother countries.  Ultimately though, unless things change, Japan will run out of gasoline and have to start rationing in about a month.  Emergency services will obviously get priority.  Work from home might get mandated.  You might start seeing congestion schemes being applied, things like,  even numbered cars can only drive on even numbered days.  But any industry that consumes a lot of gas might just get told they aren't allowed to operate.  Pakistan is already rationing. South Korea is already rationing, and has congestion schemes. Australia already has fuel shortages.  These will get worse until enough demand destruction occurs to match supply and demand.  Keep in mind, this $110/barrel oil we're seeing coincides with the release of hundreds of millions of barrels of oil from strategic reserves.  Those flows end in a few weeks. Then we'll see if we can't hit $6/gallon gas. Canada already has diesel at $10/gallon.  This will make everything more expensive.
1
snoogins355 Mar 30, 2026 +1
In a f*** up way, Trump is helping countries go green
1
stevey_frac Mar 30, 2026 +1
In a 'don't have any other choice' kinda way.
1
pinewind108 Mar 30, 2026 +1
South Korea is already buying Russian oil. I'd expect Japan to follow soon.
1
stevey_frac Mar 30, 2026 +1
There isn't enough to make up the difference.
1
pinewind108 Mar 30, 2026 +1
Ohh! You are correct. I just googled it, and Vladivostok has a daily maximum capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. (That's when everything is working properly.) South Korea uses over 2 million barrels per day. Well, used.
1
stevey_frac Mar 30, 2026 +1
And that oil was mostly previously going to China.  So now China will turn around and buy someone else's oil.
1
pinewind108 Mar 30, 2026 +1
Apparently, Australia gets 25-30% of their refined fuel from South Korea. Those ships aren't going to be sailing any time soon.
1
stevey_frac Mar 30, 2026 +1
And I believe they used to get jet fuel from China  China has banned the export of jet fuel.  So those ships aren't sailing either.
1
wageslave2022 Mar 30, 2026 +18
Your paycheck stays the same until the layoffs become more of a thing.
18
travistravis Mar 30, 2026 +7
You missed that this time there's 'AI', so now you might also lose that paycheck and finding a new one will be more difficult than ever.
7
Lysandren Mar 30, 2026 +1
Not just gasoline: 20% of the nitrates for the world's fertilizer cannot get out. Prople in lower income countries will starve if they cannot use fertilizer during planting season. Additionally a large percentage of the global helium supply goes through the strait. Helium is used to make microchips, chips that are already in high demand due to ai investment. There's also all the lng that will be unavailable for nations. India and Pakistan are already feeling the cooking gas shortage. The Phillipines has moved to a 4 day workweek to cut down on power usage. These are just a few examples of how much the strait has the world by the balls.
1
Ceci0 Mar 30, 2026 +1
You know the best part? When oil prices go down, prices will remain the same. Great trick ngl
1
Lebowski_420 Mar 30, 2026 +92
I think a lot of countries are already experiencing recession and most regular people in those countries are suffering financially, emotionally, mentally… Maybe even physically because of the stress.
92
Jaew96 Mar 30, 2026 +35
And because the upper classes are pretty well insulated from it all, the powers that be are in no hurry whatsoever to fix or even stabilize things.
35
Lebowski_420 Mar 30, 2026 +18
Yeah the difference between the rich and poor is getting bigger every day… In my country for sure at least (Belgium)
18
BasedKaleb Mar 30, 2026 +9
…fix? Why would they fix what is working perfectly for them?
9
Lebowski_420 Mar 30, 2026 +6
Yeah that’s part of the problem indeed. The “elites” can get away with anything they want while spending our tax money too.
6
smokeoilsalt Mar 30, 2026 +39
Yes, it could absolutely cause a global recession if these high prices persist. Economists (such as those from the IMF or J.P. Morgan) warn that if oil reaches $150 per barrel, a widespread recession is unavoidable. Now we just have to wait for Trump to stop causing trouble, because he's been causing too much trouble since he came to power.
39
corizano Mar 30, 2026 +13
Good chance it’s at that amount next week after an Easter ground invasion begins..
13
NoodlesAreAwesome Mar 30, 2026 -5
Didn’t Trump just say they agreed to most items on his list so either way that signals possibly not. Either he’s full of it and looking for a way out or it’s happening and Iran is looking for a way out (a mix of both I suspect).
-5
ConglomerateCousin Mar 30, 2026 +19
In what world is Trump ever not full of it??
19
froz3nt Mar 30, 2026 +9
Trump says a lot of things. Hd also lies a lot.
9
corizano Mar 30, 2026 +5
Yeah trump is absolutely the authority on truth. Truth is markets will be opening Monday morning and his mates need to dump after pumping
5
yuckmouthteeth Mar 30, 2026 +1
Maybe it'll convince people trains are cool
1
Intel_Oil Mar 30, 2026 +1
You're such narrow-minded and brainwashed, that you think the only thing Oil is used for, is for Cars.
1
seKer82 Mar 30, 2026 +179
Not by itself but the current resource and political climate 100% could lead to a global recession. The leading cause would be instability in leadership within the peak global economic powerhouse. You literally have a proven economic failure leading the most powerful country on the planet.
179
GardeniaFrangipani Mar 30, 2026 +48
A proven economic failure who says he doesn’t need advisors….
48
seKer82 Mar 30, 2026 +39
He was born a failure, the only people who didn't or have not learned this are idiots. His own father knew not to trust him.
39
snoogins355 Mar 30, 2026 +1
And they're cooking the books https://itep.org/trumps-firing-of-bls-commissioner-is-part-of-larger-erosion-of-federal-data-infrastructure/
1
Slum-Bum Mar 30, 2026 +12
The price of oil could certainly cause a recession by itself. It’s one of the biggest inputs to consider when manufacturing/transporting literally anything.
12
Honey-Princess-34 Mar 30, 2026 +7
I think the bigger issue is overall instability. When you combine energy markets, politics, and supply chains all being shaky at the same time, that’s when things start getting risky
7
seKer82 Mar 30, 2026 +7
So exactly what I just said.
7
Secret_Answer9855 Mar 30, 2026 +2
Are we all disassociating?? Not brave enough to face our real time problem?
2
Secret_Answer9855 Mar 30, 2026 +11
But i thought after covid we already been on a global recession hence the flactuating inflation? What.
11
seKer82 Mar 30, 2026 +17
Yes, COVID did cause a global recession which is why inflation peaked around 9%. Its been dropping since 2022 but could easily start to spike again. It's not a place you travel too and return when things are better, think of it as a hole you dig, you can climb out, you can fall back in or you can even dig deeper.
17
Omegatherion Mar 30, 2026 +2
We have been in a global recession and we can go there again
2
the_colonelclink Mar 30, 2026 +10
Lol. You still think the USA is the most powerful country in the world? Even if it is, China is so close behind it’s not funny. And when they fully wake up, the USA won’t be able to comprehend how it was overtaken.
10
seKer82 Mar 30, 2026 -2
The irony of you posting this is pretty on brand for your type.
-2
GrowFreeFood Mar 30, 2026 +2
How to you measure? I measure the success of a country by its infant mortality rate. It's the one stat that tells the most about a country.
2
the_colonelclink Mar 30, 2026 +1
And what’s ’my type’ according to you?
1
Vegetable-Visit-8451 Mar 30, 2026 +1
Exactly one unstable leader can ripple across the entire global economy it’s scary how fragile things really are.
1
ColtMaverick13 Mar 30, 2026 +1
oil doesnt crash economies alone but it’s definitely great at pushing dominoes
1
TheReverendCard Mar 30, 2026 +25
"Could?" We're well beyond that.
25
Sans-valeur Mar 30, 2026 +17
We about to recession our recession for a super recession!! I didn’t even get a vote, my country is so far away from everywhere else and we’re still getting fucked by the decisions of old men in far away countries.
17
hbarSquared Mar 30, 2026 +16
From Chinese container ships to diesel-powered construction equipment to natural gas power plants to petroleum-based fertilizer; every input to the economy depends on some way on the price of fossil fuel. When that price goes up, everything costs more. If you look at history, the oil shocks of '73 and '79 fundamentally altered the global economy, and the disruptions we are seeing so far are bigger than both of those put together. In addition to a major recession, we're likely to see a big shift away from American SUVs and towards Chinese electric cars and solar panels.
16
missbehavin21 Mar 30, 2026 +10
Medication or food Electricity or food Companies downsizing Companies filing bankruptcy
10
BringTheFingerBack Mar 30, 2026 +8
Companies not hiring new staff followed by layoffs is what usually kicks it off. You could see that start due to high fuel prices.
8
Direct_Word6407 Mar 30, 2026 +25
The thing that many people don’t seem to understand is oil isn’t the only resource that goes through the straight of Hormuz. Inflation is going to happen, worse than Biden.
25
GardeniaFrangipani Mar 30, 2026 +13
Yes! There’s not much mention of urea for fertilising crops also being trapped. That’s going to hurt millions of people.
13
gkibbe Mar 30, 2026 +1
LNG facilities have been destroyed, gonna be 5 years till normal even if a cease fire starts today. Hydrogen and necessary compounds. Theres so much that is gonna get messed up but all these analysts cant see past the oil and their hopium.
1
Spright91 Mar 30, 2026 +1
way worse than Biden. It won't be inflation, it will be stagflation. Growth will stagnate while prices go up. There's no way to fix this by printing money. Because you can't fix supply by creating demand. You can't print oil.
1
Distinct_Flow5468 Mar 30, 2026 +5
Actually, a depression is being predicted by 2030. If we make it that far
5
ca1ibos Mar 30, 2026 +7
This tracks. War, Pandemics and Great Depressions. Early 20th Century Boogaloo.
7
GrowFreeFood Mar 30, 2026 +5
When all the poor people stop worshipping the oligarchs, thats when you know there's an effect. But i can't imagine that happening. They freaking love the oligarchy.
5
AshtonBlack Mar 30, 2026 +4
It *could*, fairly obviously. Each country/state will be affected differently, depending on its reliance on fossil fuels, but given the interconnectedness of global trade, shipping, fossil fuel-derived chemicals, especially in agriculture, plastics and air travel are all at risk. This has an inflationary pressure and most places will raise national interest rates, to combat it, which will suppress "growth". For ordinary persons, this will mean that everything will be more expensive, at the same time as wages will be held back by those wishing to retain profits. Jobs and businesses will close, if it continues, exacerbating the problems.
4
HannahRay1_1 Mar 30, 2026 +3
yeah, because higher oil prices affect literally everything… transport, food, bills. regular people would feel it the most
3
MoesMama1121 Mar 30, 2026 +3
Yeah so much more fun to look forward to! They are slowly killing us. How much more can we take? I’ve never been more hopeless. Maybe the apocalypse is the best bet. Nothing else will stop the greed.
3
MoesMama1121 Mar 30, 2026 +1
You do realize our government hates us right?
1
whiteb8917 Mar 30, 2026 +8
Could it cause ? No. The recession is coming like a freight train with no brakes working.
8
RevolutionaryEgg1312 Mar 30, 2026 +3
It's happening already No could about it. People are going to lose their jobs due to being unable to travel. Medicines and urgently needed medical equipment will be delayed in delivery causing avoidable death. Hopefully leaders of all sensible nations will ask people to work from home if they can in order to avoid getting into financial trouble.
3
KrimzonK Mar 30, 2026 +5
Asking the wrong question - the blockage actually has way worse effect than oil - a fifth of LNG go through the strait, same with fertilizer and other shit. That will cause the recession not oil.
5
Hamza_stan Mar 30, 2026 +10
Thanks America!
10
[deleted] Mar 30, 2026 +2
[deleted]
2
MarcusSurealius Mar 30, 2026 +2
Nitrogen is for fertilizer. 30% travels through the straight.
2
ExcellentWinner7542 Mar 30, 2026 +2
We are overdue for a deep global recession. What are you doing to prepare?
2
Nature23571113 Mar 30, 2026 +1
What can one do?
1
Yeox0960 Mar 30, 2026 +2
Wait, we aren't in a global recession yet?
2
stainorstreak Mar 30, 2026 +1
This isn't going to be like the recession of the late 2000's. There'll be stagflation too, with high inflation and high interest rates too. We get the double whammy!
1
Spright91 Mar 30, 2026 +1
Oh its much worse than you're probably thinking. Not only could it. **It is** causing a recession, and it will get worse. High fuel prices are locked in now because of the damage that has been done to the supply. This is not just a supply chain issue it's a supply issue. And that's locked in because the infrastructure is destroyed, which could take 3-5 years to repair, and the Strait of Hormuz is mined, which would likely take a year to clear. So a recession is guaranteed now. Central banks are trapped in a stagflation deadlock, forced to keep interest rates high to fight rising prices even as industrial output collapses, mathematically guaranteeing a global GDP contraction by the end of the year. If oil hits 150-$200, which many reputable analysts say will happen if Trump invades Iranian territory. It won't be a recession, it will be a depression. [Oil Prices May Skyrocket to $200 Amid Iran Conflict: Macquarie's Grave Warning, ETEnergyworld](https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/oil-prices-may-skyrocket-to-200-amid-iran-conflict-macquaries-grave-warning/129846214#:~:text=At%20pre%2Dcrisis%20levels%20of,as%20critical%20as%20the%20level.). If all Americans truly understood what's happening, there would be riots on the streets.
1
Photon6626 Mar 30, 2026 +3
Oil prices are the beginning. A significant portion of the world's fertilizer is sourced through the Strait of Hormuz. We're about to start the planting season in the northern hemisphere. Many farmers will find it too expensive to start their crop or will decide to plant less. This will lead to a reduction in food supply worldwide in the next year, which will harm the poorest the most. The oil and food problems will result in inflation in many countries as governments try to dampen the problems with high prices and shortages by printing currency. This will solve some problems short term at the expense of VERY serious problems long term. If attacks on important production infrastructure in the region continue to escalate it could have a runaway effect where the source of the problem can't be resolved for many years and the government solutions that rely on short to mid term solutions fail. The result is that the short term effects are blunted by government actions and long term effects decimate economies and destroy the lives of millions. Currencies will be devalued dramatically and the savings held in those currencies will be worth far less. The price of food, rent, and everything else will skyrocket. Businesses will collapse and people will be out of work.
3
Inaiax Mar 30, 2026 +2
I don’t fully get the economics… but I always feel it in everyday stuff first gas, groceries, rent… it slowly creeps into normal life before people even realize what’s happening
2
Papa-Cinq Mar 30, 2026
Are you confusing inflation with recession???
0
Inaiax Mar 30, 2026 +1
yeah, you’re right actually, I mixed the terms 😅 I just meant how people feel it in everyday life before really understanding what’s going on
1
gringer Mar 30, 2026 +2
Hyperinflation *then* depression
2
AggravatingWonder768 Mar 30, 2026 +2
A Trump le conviene, él ahora tiene petrolio de sobras en Venezuela y esta haciendo que el resto del mundo lo pague a precio de oro. Por esto, podría ser que está situación se alargue y pueda crear una recesión temporal.
2
Lopsided_Bar3451 Mar 30, 2026 +3
Translation?
3
LessThanLuek Mar 30, 2026 +7
Orange man wins from this. He recently got a new source of fuel. Other countries don't and will have to pay more. This could last a while. Things costing more and people spending less on things that aren't important leads to a thing called "recession".
7
AggravatingWonder768 Mar 30, 2026 +5
This suits Trump; he now has surplus oil in Venezuela and is making the rest of the world pay exorbitant prices for it. Because of this, the situation could drag on and potentially create a temporary recession.
5
therealsatansweasel Mar 30, 2026 +6
I think it gets resolved in a certain fashion that is uncomfortable but effective. Probably around the midterms. He's screwing up the Republicans so badly that by December they aren't too worried about keeping him in office.
6
AggravatingWonder768 Mar 30, 2026 +3
Yes but until november we may face bad months in economy... and 8 months can be much long...
3
therealsatansweasel Mar 30, 2026 +2
It will take a lot to push them to abandon him.Its got to get real bad,and a hit to their income is really about the only thing that actually moves them,all this other fake outrage is just for brand recognition
2
TDiffRob6876 Mar 30, 2026 +1
If it hits $150, yes.
1
Kaylee-Swift Mar 30, 2026 +1
The killer isn’t just *high* prices, it’s the *volatility*. Businesses can’t plan for 'maybe.' If an airline or a shipping fleet doesn't know if fuel will cost $80 or $120 next month, they hedge by raising prices to the worst-case scenario. For regular people, this means 'Temporary Surcharges' that somehow become permanent even after oil prices drop. We end up paying for the uncertainty while the corporations protect their margins.
1
mbullaris Mar 30, 2026 +1
I think the developed world is failing to appreciate how devastating this will be for poorer countries that are dependent on imported fertiliser as well as fuel. It could lead to massive crop failures and possibly famines. The resulting humanitarian crisis could be devastating and will put immense pressure on neighbouring countries.
1
dionysus-2000 Mar 30, 2026 +1
Apart from just energy, Oil is a raw material for more things then most people realise, this will create immense inflationary pressure on most nations. Everything will get more expensive, which will destroy demand, which will decrease production in general, which will decrease growth, decrease incomes, increase layoffs and bankrupcies. On top of that, this can also become a catalyst for other economic crises' in vulnerable sectors. Such as AI industry, which is reliant on c**** and high amount of energy, along with other cyclical contracts that have propped up their values. This collapse will be epic. Could trigger a private equity collaapse as well, which is basically an alternative for banks for loans that banks will not take on due to risk. Then there are things we cant even predict. All in all, shit show.
1
YxxzzY Mar 30, 2026 +1
over the last half century people warned about 21st century resource wars. this is them. this very well might spiral out if control into a full blown world war very quickly, especially with idiots like Trump in power. doomer prediction: Iran attacks water infrastructure in the gulf states, US ground forces attack Iran and immediately suffer unsustainable losses, USA pulls out within half a year due to pressure at home, Israel cannot keep defending against now nearly unrestricted Iranian missle attacks and uses nukes offensively. whatever shit storm happens after,who knows...
1
bluehairdave Mar 30, 2026 +1
Anyone not around to experience 70s stagflation will get their chance.
1
Spiritual_Review_754 Mar 30, 2026 +1
Price of literally everything will go up because of the price of oil. The volatility is simply being caused by the Trump administration lying about negotiations, desperately trying to prop up the stock market. Masses of oil infrastructure is being and has been destroyed, which will knock out the ability to use them potentially for years. However, that is only the start of the bad news. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, exacerbating the problems for oil but things like helium, aluminium etc. Have no synthetic alternatives and are relied upon completely for the bill out of all this AI infrastructure. So it won’t just cause inflation, but it will also slow growth massively. Liquid natural gas is also used massively in industry and to heat homes across the developed world, adding further pressure to every economy. Another consideration is fertiliser, which is vital to make crop yields as high as possible, which will inevitably lead to massive food shortages. And the truth is that while highly developed western economies will be able to subsidise these things to add a layer of protection to their citizens, poor and developing economies will not be able to do that, which will most likely lead to horrible effects, including famine. Iran has proven that hurting the “most powerful military the world has ever seen“ is actually as simple as punching the S&P 500 right in the balls.
1
reuben_iv Mar 30, 2026
Yup, read into what followed the Iranian revolution if you want to see what that could look like, 1979 oil crisis, major global event, led to economic stagnation of the 80s, indirectly led to the USSR collapsing as it became reliant on oil prices staying high
0
Enough_Vehicle_8149 Mar 30, 2026 -7
I don't think it will go that far
-7
Z3B0 Mar 30, 2026 +9
Oh no, cutting down oil, natural gaz, and fertilizer all at the same time won't affect the already bad economy. Nothing could possibly happen when quite a lot of farmers all around the world won't be able to use their tractors, nor help yields with fertilizer. Food prices won't explode, and nothing bad will happen. Costs of transportation is already going way up because of oil prices, making everything more expensive, people can't afford gas to go to work... Really, can't see anything capable of making a recession at a global scale. Nope. Absolutely nothing, the economy is booming.
9
CruelStrangers Mar 30, 2026 -2
Not likely as the US just pulled venezuela
-2
PhaseComfortable5801 Mar 30, 2026 -5
I don’t think so
-5
LittleKitty235 Mar 30, 2026 +7
....no please do go on "don't worry, nothing bad can happen, it can only good happen" Donald Trump
7
← Back to Board