They are insider trading machines designed to extract wealth from non-insiders.
770
Asclepius-RodMar 18, 2026
+98
Bingo
98
generalvostokMar 18, 2026
+42
Wait until you hear about stock markets
42
Im_with_stooopidMar 18, 2026
+35
It's an elite club and you ain't in it.
35
wheatgivesmeshitsMar 19, 2026
+4
But you can let them pay with your money. For a small fee.
4
tidhoMar 19, 2026
anyone can be in it
0
cdxxmikeMar 20, 2026
+2
You can buy fractional shares and start an account with basically nothing.
When I got into trading stocks you had to have a brokerage account and the minimum was usually something like 1000$ in an account.
Making a trade, of any size, was 75$ back then. Adjust that for inflation and think about it.
2
iamamuttonheadMar 20, 2026
+1
None of what you have specified is a real problem IMO. Public markets should be available to the public IMO. All that said, the vast majority of the public should never be trading individual stocks. Unfortunately, most of the public actujally does what they should - they buy index funds/ETFs and that creates an entirely different set of problems.
1
cdxxmikeMar 20, 2026
+2
I am specifying why it isn't a problem. The markets have never been more accessible for small investors.
I do not think this is a bad thing.
2
iamamuttonheadMar 20, 2026
+1
sorry. misunderstood.
1
soximentMar 19, 2026
+17
You can always buy index funds and not worry about it. If rich people want it to go up, then you go up with it.
Prediction markets are completely f****** stupid
17
SgtHulkasBigToeJamMar 18, 2026
+5
… extract wealth from morons
5
rhunter99Mar 18, 2026
+3
I’m naive to this world - please explain. How are they extracting wealth?
Edit: fixed typo.
3
sniper91Mar 18, 2026
+50
It’s insider trading, but with a gambling site instead of the stock market. People with inside info on politics, film/tv industry, etc. make money on gambling addicts
For one example, one time the White House Press Secretary abruptly ended a press conference about a minute shy of the ‘over’ that the prediction market set
50
Toby_O_NotobyMar 19, 2026
+33
It's also arguably worse than insider trading because if you're betting on reality, that gives you the ability and motive to change reality.
For example, there were a large number of bets that the US would strike Iran right before they did it. Now, let's say you were part of that decision-making process and stood to make millions off the strike. But then you get information that would delay or even stop the strike altogether. Like, you know, like one of the targets is a girl's school and not a nuclear facility.
You'd be a lot less likely to pass that information along if you're financially incentivised not to.
(And for the record I'm NOT saying that happened on the Iranian strike, just using it as a recent example.)
33
Brock_Hard_CanuckMar 19, 2026
+21
One of my favourite examples of "insider trading" (on the commodities futures markets) is at the end of *Trading Places*. The wealthy Duke brothers (Ralph Bellamy and Don Ameche) pay one of their associates to covertly obtain a Florida orange crop report from the Department of Agriculture. They will then use this crop report to try to corner the market on the trading of orange juice contracts - if the crop is smaller than usual, the Dukes know the price of orange juice will rise (less supply = higher demand); if the crop is bigger than usual, the Dukes know the price of orange juice will fall (more supply = less demand).
The end of the movie features Billy Ray (Eddie Murphy) and Louis (Dan Aykroyd) intercepting the orange crop report, before it can reach the Dukes. The real crop report shows that everything is fine, and there is going to be a surplus of orange juice. Billy Ray and Louis then create a fake crop report, to say the opposite (that unexpectedly cold weather has created a shortage of oranges), and pass the fake report along to the Dukes.
The Dukes then see the fake crop report, and tell their trader to buy as much orange juice contracts as possible, the moment trading opens, because they expect to be able to sell all these orange juice contracts they have in their possession, for highly inflated prices, once the crop report is revealed (because they believe the orange crop is going to be lower than usual, so they can take advantage of the shortage of orange juice). So, the Dukes' plan is pretty much... buy low at first, then sell high later.
The trading day begins, and the Dukes' trader immediately starts buying as much orange juice contracts as he can. Once the other traders realize what the Dukes are doing, they all join in and try to buy a bunch of orange juice contracts too (figuring the Dukes have inside information). This pushes the price of orange juice contracts to sky-high levels.
As this going on, Billy Ray and Louis are standing on the trading floor, being silent, and making no trades. Eventually, the price gets to a high enough point where Billy Ray and Louis announce that they will be **selling** orange juice contracts. Crucially, Billy Ray and Louis **do not have** any orange juice contracts in their possession at that moment. They are short selling (selling contracts that they don't have yet - they will need to buy enough orange juice contracts later to make sure they have enough to actually fulfill the sales they have committed to). This works fine for Billy Ray and Louis, because they know the real crop report says there will be a surplus of orange juice, so they know prices will drastically fall once the crop report is revealed, so they can purchase a bunch of c**** orange juice contracts then (so, Billy Ray and Louis are pretty much doing the opposite of the Dukes - they are selling high first, and then buying low later).
Billy Ray and Lewis sell a bunch of orange juice contracts (which they do not own, yet), at very high prices.
The real crop report is revealed, and all the traders on the floor are in a panic, because they all realize that all the orange juice contracts they have purchased are VASTLY inflated in price as compared to what they should be, and they need to dump them. The big price board above the floor shows the price for orange juice contracts begins dropping drastically. Which works fine for Billy Ray and Louis, because they need to purchase as much (soon to be cheaply priced) OJ contracts as possible, to fulill their short selling (as noted above).
The price for orange juice bottoms out, and Billy Ray and Louis start buying c**** orange juice contracts from all the traders on the floor, with one notable exception: They refuse to buy from the Dukes' trader (because they purposefully want to stick the Dukes with as much orange juice contracts as possible by the time the end of the day arrives). Also of note, Billy Ray and Louis are the **only people buying** after the crop report comes out (because everyone else is trying to sell).
The trading day ends. Billy Ray and Lewis have bought enough orange juice contracts to fulfill their short selling, and have made a profit of about $400 million from doing so. Meanwhile, the trading floor commissioners head over to the Dukes, and initiate a margin call on them for $400 million. The $400 million owing to Billy Ray and Lewis needs to come from somewhere, after all, and the Dukes are the only one still holding any orange juice contracts at the end of the day (since Billy Ray and Valentine refused to buy from the Dukes' trader).
The Duke brothers plainly point out they don't have $400 million in cash just sitting in their bank account, so the commissioners order all the Duke's assets (houses, vehicles, etc...) be seized and sold to settle everything, since the orange juice contracts that the Dukes have in their possession at the end of the day are obviously worth nowhere near $400 million. The Duke brothers go broke, and Billy Ray and Louis are seen happily vacationing on a tropical island.
Of note, what Billy Ray and Lewis did was **perfectly legal** at the time, because using insider information on the commodities future trading market was not illegal until 2010 (considering Trading Places came out in 1983, and was one of the most popular movies of the 1980s, it seems kind of silly that it took the government 27 years to ban this kind of behaviour). The rule banning insider information use on the futures trading market is often informally called the Eddie Murphy Rule (as a reference to the movie).
https://np.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/9mrire/til_the_law_making_it_illegal_to_profit_from/?sort=top
21
BobzyouruncleMar 19, 2026
+1
Nice summary!
1
ClockworkEngineseerMar 19, 2026
+1
> They are short selling (selling contracts that they don't have yet.
Wouldn’t this be naked shorting?
1
Early-Ad277Mar 18, 2026
+31
Simple, a survivor producer/CBS insider/Jeff Probst or really any of the contestants that knows the exact boot order can just bet a ton of money on this app and essentially take huge sums of money away from members of the public under the pretense of 'fair betting'.
It's like if you knew the results of the l****** numbers in advance and still competed like everyone else. It's not a fair competition if one competitor already has all the answers.
31
reddkiddMar 18, 2026
+1
Think of it like a carnival game, you get the illusion if being able to win big, but the actual game is heavily manipulated. So you grab low hanging fruit from people who believe they can out smart the operator or just niave people who believe the game is fair.
1
sunburned_albinoMar 19, 2026
+1
Wish I was inside something.
1
ntwild97Mar 18, 2026
+39
Even grosser is how people are treating them as accurate predictions of political events
39
bautinMar 19, 2026
+1
They *can* serve as a vague proxy of how people will vote.
1
Constant_Bit4676Mar 19, 2026
-21
There is no shortage of evidence and studies that show predication markets are one of if not the most accurate prediction of an events likelihood, if it is a very liquid market.
There are plenty of good and valid reasons to shit on and ban prediction markets, accuracy isn’t one of them.
-21
[deleted]Mar 19, 2026
+1
[deleted]
1
zpattack12Mar 19, 2026
+2
Thats basically a feature not a bug for people who are using it for trying to figure out what the odds of an event happening is. By incentivizing those with insider information to participate in the market, it makes the accuracy higher. Obviously there are lots of concerns with that, but as someone who doesnt participate in them, it is admittedly helpful to get an idea of how likely things are to happen.
2
-Gurgi-Mar 19, 2026
+14
Betting on pre-taped Survivor is the least of our worries.
They had people making 500k bets that the US would strike Iran the day before the US struck Iran.
14
popeter45Mar 20, 2026
+5
And making death threats too journalists who don’t edit reports to say what wins them the wager
5
United_Bus3467Mar 18, 2026
+8
It's basically insider trading. Of all shows, Rupaul's drag race has some early leaks on the competition that are mostly 75% true from who was cast on the show before the season airs, or elimination orders as well. Production or queens themselves often leak the info.
8
WildMajesticUnicornMar 18, 2026
+2
There are too many people on set for those shows to keep it a complete secret, especially now that there’s a financial incentive for telling.
2
TwoPercentTokesMar 19, 2026
+1
I reported an ad on insta for one as inappropriate lol
1
jevversonMar 19, 2026
+1
I remember "Predict It" 10+ years ago. I lost every bet, even though i won. It was a scam then. And i thought, never again.
1
Silly-Ad-6341Mar 18, 2026
+593
If you bet in this market you're essentially lighting your money on fire.
593
2002BlackBMWMar 18, 2026
+89
Wait a minute, Mr. T? Are you telling me that you bet on the fight in Rocky III, and that you bet against Rocky?
89
crazyguyunderthedeskMar 18, 2026
+35
Hindsight is 20/20 my friend.
(In fairness though. When it was coming out Rocky was .500 in final movie fights.)
35
DumblesaurMar 18, 2026
+32
You know what’s funny? When you owe a bookie say $50,000 and they come and break your leg, you STILL owe them the $50,000!
32
thinsafetypinMar 18, 2026
+5
Take a look at this locket.
5
KhausTOMar 18, 2026
+3
Is that you... With my mom?!
3
browntown_saltMar 19, 2026
+2
Ok I guess it's a short story.
2
Turbulent_Tale6497Mar 18, 2026
+1
Every time I do it makes me laugh
1
Kalse1229Mar 19, 2026
+1
“I thought the Generals were due!”
1
vino23Mar 18, 2026
+126
Yup, unless you're in the "insider" category where they are making easy (illegal) money
126
LateralEntryMar 18, 2026
+68
I don’t think it’s illegal to inside trade in non-regulated markets like this.
68
Trainer_RobMar 18, 2026
+43
It’s illegal. If you are a Joe Schmoe doing this it will catch up with you. NPR has a good segment on this. It’s considered fraud. They have a different governing body than sec though and it’s going to take time. But don’t you worry if any pleb makes real money doing this they will be prosecuted
43
MoreGaghPleaseMar 19, 2026
+17
Insider trading gets caught because there is sophisticated enforcement from specialized agencies, monitoring, mandatory reporting from all kinds of professionals like brokers and lawyers, and a legal regime that has secondary restrictions on things like insider tipping. And they still probably miss most of it.
It seems impossible to police that in a world where you can bet on anything. And maybe not even worth the effort. I don’t know, maybe if you go buy bitcoin in order to place a polymarket bet on the outcome of a Survivor episode then caveat empor and you just have to be deprived of your money.
17
MyReddittNameMar 18, 2026
+1
Everything is legal now
1
somecasperMar 18, 2026
+13
It is illegal, and there's a distinct agency that deals with it, but good luck getting our current government to prosecute greed unless the perpetrator turns out to have voted Democrat at some point.
https://www.npr.org/2026/02/25/nx-s1-5726050/kalshi-insider-trading-enforcement-actions
13
LateralEntryMar 18, 2026
+7
Which agency?
Oh, CFTC. They’re pretty toothless
7
MartinezForeverMar 18, 2026
+23
It should be a regulated market, it only isn't because *gestures wildly at everything*.
23
Kalse1229Mar 19, 2026
+2
One thing at a time.
2
LateralEntryMar 18, 2026
-34
I don’t think we should waste taxpayer resources regulated this obvious scam. Buyer beware.
-34
jockfist5000Mar 18, 2026
+9
Every other form of gambling has some form of regulation, weirdo.
9
Optimal-Designer-489Mar 18, 2026
-14
‘Weirdo’
-14
fumarMar 18, 2026
+2
Technically they use options to do this so I would think it is in fact a regulated market. However there are a ton of insiders doing this.
2
BeneficialChemist874Mar 18, 2026
-2
It’s not illegal
-2
kh2rikuMar 19, 2026
+7
There is a betting market where you can bet if the price of Bitcoin will be up or down a set price in the next 5 minutes. If you stay and just watch for a few closings, you’ll see a sudden spike or dip just seconds (or the literal second) before the cut off. Nearly every single time. The betting market is bonkers.
7
studhandMar 19, 2026
+3
Or making literally shit tons with inside information
3
surnik22Mar 18, 2026
+212
Betting on predetermined things where hundreds or thousands of other people already know the outcome is one of the dumbest things I could imagine doing
212
splitcroof92Mar 19, 2026
+19
Well apparently it's just free money. If you're one of the ones that does know
19
theeMrPeanutbutterMar 18, 2026
+217
Before they changed up editing quite a bit, a certain website predicted the w***** of a season from episode 2. Wouldn't wanna bet against whatever they suggest.
217
MasemJMar 18, 2026
+150
There has generally, at least prior to covid years, a way to narrow down the last three or four based on confessional count (the more of those you got the likelier you were staying to the long term). The production realized this was feeding predictions and spoilers and niw do a better job to spread confessions around.
150
theeMrPeanutbutterMar 18, 2026
+60
Iirc they had also quantified like positive and negative confessional right? I remember the island of idols season was the one that they called the w***** very early on
60
MrsNoodleMcDoodleMar 18, 2026
+33
That season’s w***** was easy to predict from episode one, lol.
33
theeMrPeanutbutterMar 18, 2026
+15
I was so salty cause I couldnt stand Tommy. God that season sucks.
15
JustBigChillinMar 19, 2026
+10
That season is the worst of the entire show imo. Incredibly unlikable cast, boring w*****, boring gameplay, stupid twist, and of course all the SA stuff. Idk that there is any possible way to have a worse season.
10
theeMrPeanutbutterMar 19, 2026
+4
The episode where Kelly gets voted off was f****** hard to watch. Me and my friends just sat there in silence at the end.
4
samspopguyMar 19, 2026
+1
I thought maryannes season was pretty bad also
1
thehoodsMar 18, 2026
+22
/r/edgic for those interested
22
MatthewHechtMar 19, 2026
+4
It was a lot more than confession count. It was focus on who has relationships with many people and complex edits.
They often over edit big characters voted out early.
4
MrsNoodleMcDoodleMar 18, 2026
+5
Less confessional count and more when in the premiere episode they first appear. Like, all the non-returnee seasons from 33 to 44 had Jeff talk to the w***** at the marooning “Mat Chat” before the first challenge. The winners of 47 and 48 had the latest first confessionals of the New Era.
5
weebabyarcherMar 18, 2026
+2
Now you get two stories, the final three with some overall narrative with light confessionals and the boots with heavier confessionals at the begining
2
kevinyeauxMar 19, 2026
+9
This is actually one of the reasons I have trouble getting into Survivor, Amazing Race. I’m a huge Big Brother fan and I really like that it’s happening live/in real time.
9
res30stupidMar 19, 2026
+5
Perez Hilton spoiled the first three seasons of RuPaul's Drag Race, leading to a change in the production. They pre-record the shows finale with each queen winning in a different version then air the true finale, meaning the contestants only learn who won live.
In fact, this is the model for quite a few shows in the UK. The British version of The Apprentice records both versions of the finalists winning the show and only shows who really won on TV.
5
StellarellaaMar 19, 2026
+3
Do you remember the website? I think it’ll be interesting to read it’s passed accuracy
3
Philosophile42Mar 19, 2026
+4
Survivor sucks was THE spoiler site for the show. But it doesn’t exist anymore
4
Agitated-AcctantMar 19, 2026
+3
Maybe backed up on internet archive?
3
ThatOneClodMar 19, 2026
+3
The site still exists to this day
3
jjgm21Mar 20, 2026
+1
It’s still really predictable based on the edit! A whole sub exists called r/edgic that reads reality television editing tea leaves to predict the w*****, with shocking accuracy sometimes (they are unspoiled).
1
Absurdity_EverywhereMar 18, 2026
+43
The Generals were due!
43
Philhughes_85Mar 18, 2026
+13
He’s spinnin the ball on his finger, just take it!!
13
occonoMar 19, 2026
+10
As a non American it was a long time before I properly understood this joke.
10
res30stupidMar 19, 2026
+2
...I still don't get it.
2
TheFeedMachineMar 19, 2026
+4
The Harlem Globetrotters are an exhibition basketball team. They do scripted games where they do antics and silly things. They always play and beat the Washington Generals. Betting on the Generals is betting on a scripted loser.
4
IAMAdepressentMar 19, 2026
+2
It is supposed to go that way, but very rarely the generals accidentally win. Its hard to make a scripted show in a close basketball game, you need everyone to hit their shots every time.
2
ishtar_the_moveMar 18, 2026
+121
> You can also now make money by predicting the past: Who will win the 50th season of “Survivor,” which is currently airing but was filmed last year?
>Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest prediction markets, are offering bets on reality television shows, including “Survivor,” “The Bachelorette” and “Top Chef,” which are usually taped months before they are broadcast. That means the people who know the outcomes — like contestants and production staff — could make surefire bets before the episodes air and win thousands of dollars.
>Those bets can also essentially reveal the outcome to the rest of the world (but we won’t spoil any upcoming episodes here).
>There’s no proof that anyone associated with “Survivor” is placing trades. But enough bets are being placed to move the markets in very clear directions. Ahead of last week’s episode of “Survivor,” a Kalshi market gave one contestant, “Q” Burdette, 98 percent odds of being voted off the island in that episode. There were 21 players left, any of whom could have gone home, but Burdette was indeed the one eliminated.
>The Kalshi market for tonight’s episode of “Survivor” also has one contestant with a 98 percent chance of elimination.
121
Presently_AbsentMar 18, 2026
+40
Do you earn more for getting in early? What's to stop anyone from just following the trend?
40
FatalFirecrotchMar 18, 2026
+50
Usually you get worse odds the more people bet on an outcome.
50
frenchtoasterMar 18, 2026
+22
Yes, you buy at a certain price and that shifts the price for everyone else.
98 I think means the same as "yes it's already happened", since there's a rake even if you know 100% that it's resolved you don't make any money at some number less than 100.
Though it would be interesting if one of these turns out to be false herding one of these times; the odds tip in one direction and everyone else starts to assumes that was based on insider knowledge, buy in at 60/70/80, until it tips all the way to 98 with a wrong result
22
Presently_AbsentMar 18, 2026
+3
That's what's bound to happen as it gets more popular
3
-KFBR392Mar 18, 2026
+13
Odds are based on number and percentage of bets.
If 90% of the market is betting on choice A, then the payout for choice A will be super small
Also these types of “entertainment” bets usually have very low max limits. Like we’re talking $500 max bet on something dumb like this.
13
drale2Mar 18, 2026
+13
Back when Game of Thrones was airing, just before season 8, I remember seeing an "odds of who will sit on the Iron Throne" thing from Vegas and Bran had the highest odds. I remember thinking "there's no way that's right, it narratively makes no sense," but little did I know.
13
BusinessPurgeMar 19, 2026
+6
Well you see he had the best story, the storyteller said so, and people didn’t want to accept their kings have no creativity to solve problems it’s up to the underlings but sure sure terrible however in that SW prequel way where they’re getting some credit
6
hedoeswhathewantsMar 19, 2026
+7
I mean, Bran would probably make for an excellent king since, you know, he knows everything and isn't on a quest for destruction.
The reasoning given was just f****** dumb.
7
ZeroV2Mar 19, 2026
+5
He also can’t have kids and when he dies the entire country will once again be in a major succession crisis
5
fizzurpMar 18, 2026
+36
I was a Production assistant on the final shoot for Amazing race when it ended in Detroit. Got to meet Rubert btw.
I saw the w*****, obviously would’ve gotten caught but I was trying to find a way to bet on it back then.
36
WhatEvenIsLifeThisMar 18, 2026
+8
Wish this existed when I was in the small group of people who knew Jon Snows fate
8
BramptonBatallionMar 18, 2026
+14
This season is spoiled already
14
MatthewHechtMar 19, 2026
+4
Returnees seasons are always spoiled. It would be crazier on HvHvH where the spoilers were hilariously wrong.
4
RedditFan3510Mar 19, 2026
+2
I dont think the rumored w***** is correct
2
samspopguyMar 19, 2026
+3
why do you think that, at least on kalshi the first 4 boots have been right so far
3
lump77777Mar 18, 2026
+14
At least as far back as 2006, you could bet on American Idol results. Almost certainly illegal at the time, but not hard to find or use.
One particularly smart person set up a “phone bank” that would constantly dial each contestant’s number, noting the rate of successful calls. The highest rate of success indicated the lowest call volume, hence the one to be voted off. I don’t recall them ever being wrong.
14
facebook57Mar 19, 2026
+13
Idol is pretty different, it wasn’t taped months before it aired. The finales were always live.
13
BananaslammmaMar 19, 2026
+3
Even back then, betting on Survivor has been open. Season 7’s w***** (and an early boot) once put a large bet on herself knowing she was going to win prior which tipped some people following it into thinking she was taking it all
3
FuelForYourFireMar 18, 2026
+21
Doesn't that also mean that
People Are LOSING Money Betting on Pretaped 'Survivor' Episodes?
21
elmatador12Mar 18, 2026
+17
It’s mostly talking about the people who worked on the shows and know the outcome. They can now bet and make money on the outcome since they literally filmed it months prior.
17
FuelForYourFireMar 18, 2026
+4
Well yeah, THEY'LL make money.
(I did read the article, which I know is kind of un-reddit of me, sorry)
4
CoolBeansMan9Mar 19, 2026
+11
I accidentally stumbled upon the Vegas odds to win survivor and I hope they’re not accurate (there was a heavy favourite) because it’ll ruin the season for me to some degree
11
Popularpressure29Mar 19, 2026
+4
Me too but I think it's unlikely to be wrong. The craziest part is if I wasn't spoiled I would say this person has no shot.
4
samspopguyMar 19, 2026
+2
honestly though if true might be the first time in a while ill actually be happy about who wins.
2
StarkhouseStarkMar 19, 2026
+3
Aw man I feel like I could have written this! Exactly how I’m feeling too. I really hope it’s wrong but not feeling confident about it
3
ioncloud9Mar 19, 2026
+5
It’s insider trading.. without the trading. It’s so gross.
5
pinkynarftrozMar 18, 2026
+9
This seems so simple. Prohibit betting on events that have already occurred.
9
Vanilla_DanishMar 18, 2026
+7
People are dumb enough to bet on pro wrestlmg, so this isnt shocking
7
Barbarossa7070Mar 18, 2026
+5
“Double or nothin’ on the replay!”
5
ddllbbMar 19, 2026
+2
This belongs in the timeline we are in.
2
BlokeyBlokeBlokeMar 19, 2026
+2
This is hardly new. People were betting on who shot JR.
2
KnotSoSaltyMar 18, 2026
+3
Who is betting on this? These sites don’t make a market themselves (or their supposedly not doing so) so for every bet there must be a sucker who is willing to bet the other way.
I refuse to believe there are substantial numbers of people pre-betting all sides of an episode that hasn’t aired. That’s idiotic. That a handful of interns or players in the know would slip some money onto the right answer is understandable if there’s a substantial market in betting the wrong way.
No, in fact I’m pretty sure these prediction markets are secretly making their own markets after all. They select a broad basket of bets on popular tv properties that have wide demographic penetration. Then they place enough house money into those markets to make them look attractive. Not with the intention of winning, but with the intention of building interest in the platform.
This is akin to Uber having secretly been subsidizing its own rides for the first years of service to try to build interest.
Kalshi’s taking WS money and pumping into their platform to create artificial engagement. Tale as old as time. In that case I can’t really blame those who are in the know from pocketing a bit of the house money.
3
Sa7aSa7aMar 19, 2026
+1
Wait, I always misunderstood, apparently, how these sites worked. I thought the companies themselves were losing money but you're betting against other people?
1
KnotSoSaltyMar 19, 2026
+1
Supposedly they’re only taking a fee and all the bets are against other humans. Unlike a typical online s********* like say DraftKings or FanDuels. Where the house sets a line and takes bets that they will have to cover with the line moving only when the s********* feels like it.
Not saying one is better than the other but I suspect these supposedly open predictions markets aren’t so open at all.
1
QueezyFMar 19, 2026
+4
We can’t f****** talk about anything anymore without betting being brought up anymore.
4
nowhereman136Mar 18, 2026
+2
If you can make a bet on anything then of course people are going to exploit that by betting on things they have advanced knowledge on. It's not only an socially harmful business, it's a f****** dumb business.
2
buttcabbgeMar 19, 2026
+2
During 2020 lockdown times I ran a small-money Top Chef pool with my friends just to give us something to watch and cheer about when sports were all shutdown, but we all had to do an honor code agreement that no one would go online to look up who had won. It was fun, and we had some laughs talking trash about our picks or whatever, but I can't imagine betting real money on a pretaped show into a pot that literally anyone can bet.
2
johnboyjr29Mar 18, 2026
+1
I was thinking any one in the jury knows who wins and they could just make bets on that
1
CaterpillarHungry607Mar 19, 2026
+1
Hey guys guess what it’s the future and everything is f****** dumb.
1
blackmobiusMar 19, 2026
+1
You allow prediction markets to bet on literally anything and this is what happens.
Do something about it, or get used to it.
Btw those same markets make bets on bombings and ww3 as well. Just sayin
1
Kalse1229Mar 19, 2026
+1
There was a whole South Park about it, where people were making bets on if Kyle’s mom would bomb Gaza.
1
judydurnMar 19, 2026
+1
This is honestly disgusting and it completely ruins the integrity of the game for actual fans. I spend weeks trying to figure out the edit and looking for clues in the background of camp scenes just for some degenerate gambler to spoil it because they found a leak. If people can just bet on a result that happened months ago in Fiji, the sportsbooks are going to start pressuring production to change how they film. It turns a creative show into a rigged math problem and kills the community aspect of theorizing together.
1
samspopguyMar 19, 2026
+1
yeah i already ruined the season for myself since i accidently saw the betting favorite for the w*****
1
MrsNoodleMcDoodleMar 18, 2026
+1
People have bet on Survivor since season 1, but it is rare that a season isn’t spoiled these days. I think season 43 last completely unspoiled season. I WISH I had placed a bet on that one, because I guessed it right when so many had it dead ass wrong.
1
Popularpressure29Mar 19, 2026
+1
I'm really disappointed because I accidentally got spoiled on who Kalshi picked as the w***** and its ruined watching the whole season for me. This really should not be allowed.
1
HersheyStainsMar 19, 2026
+1
Join us over at Big Brother. One of the things I’ve truly loved about the show is it’s truly live, which you can watch them 24/7. And then they get voted out, you are seeing it on your TV about 20 seconds later of real time.
1
Melodic-Bet9134Mar 18, 2026
And here I am winning against my friends and family by watching the Eastern feed and then when it is on in the west coast I lay down my bet on who wins what and rake in like 20$ a week. lol
0
jdbolickMar 18, 2026
One of my friends has appeared on multiple seasons and on one of them gave us a heads up that if we wanted to see him we better watch by a specific episode.
0
SomebodysGotToSayItMar 19, 2026
This like those quarter machines, where feed a quarter into a table and a sweeper moves side to side and you collect most of the quarters that get pushed off the ledge.
Hear me out.
Those machines are, surprise, profitable. The more quarters people put in, the more money the owners get.
These prediction markets, there are insiders who know who got voted off the island, and they are betting.
If you bet, what, you think you’ll be on the winning side? Because chances are, you won’t. The odds balance the sides. Even if you “win” you’re losing some of your winnings. Maybe a lot of your winnings, as insiders can take a hefty cut.
135 Comments