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General Mar 23, 2026 at 8:14 AM

Polymarket gamblers threaten Israeli journalist over missile strike story

Posted by projecto15

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/polymarket-gamblers-threaten-israeli-journalist-missile-strike-wager
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Alive_kiwi_7001 Mar 23, 2026 +326
> A Polymarket representative said: “Polymarket condemns the harassment and threats directed at Emanuel Fabian, or anyone else for that matter. This behavior violates our terms of service and has no place on our platform or anywhere else. Prediction markets depend on the integrity of independent reporting. Attempts to pressure journalists to alter their reporting undermine that integrity and undermine the markets themselves.” Translation: “We will wring our hands but not do anything sensible like cancelling bets or banning players involved with threats and attempts to influence outcome.”
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GearboxTherapy Mar 23, 2026 +72
Have you thought of the CEO and the suits for a second when you wrote that? Heartless!
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AccomplishedBrain309 Mar 23, 2026 +41
Didnt Donald _Trump just ban reporters from producing negative articles about his administration. Isnt Donald Trump Jr on the board at Polymarket. Not sorry; I dont trust any of them.
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cozmckitty Mar 23, 2026 +24
translation: lol only the rich can manipulate the markets stop trying to do it yourselves you’re not very good at it and it’s making us look bad. we don’t want to lose the dozen people who make up the majority of the gains on our platform
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BleachedUnicornBHole Mar 23, 2026 +8
[Polymarket did ban](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/polymarket-says-it-has-banned-the-accounts-of-those-involved-in-making-threats-against-toi-reporter-will-pass-their-info-to-authorities/) the accounts threatening the reporter, though.
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0b0011 Mar 23, 2026 +4
Doesn't canceling the bets just reward them? Like they dont want to lose money. They'd prefer to win money but would probably be happier getting their money back if that isnt an option. Canceling the bets would teach them that if you dont win a bet you can keep your money by making threats.
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randomtask Mar 24, 2026 +2
The threats wouldn’t even have been made if Polymarket hadn’t created the predictions market out of whole cloth. It’s like a cancer cell being on trial and blaming the host for existing. We are living in the golden age of stupid.
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recallingmemories Mar 23, 2026 +255
Day 274 of me in disbelief that this shit exists and is legal
255
Upset-Government-856 Mar 23, 2026 +36
Just wait until Claw Bots get creative when told to do whatever they can to make a profit on polymarket betting.
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PasswordABC123XYZ Mar 23, 2026 +3
Ultra high volume betting!
3
Mad_OW Mar 23, 2026 +3
Is it?
3
Grow_away_420 Mar 23, 2026 +72
It's legal in a sense it's a novel way to gamble that government haven't moved to regulate. They probably wont get around to it until someone very rich loses a lot of money, but for now it's just a way for insiders to take money from gamblers.
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sephtater Mar 23, 2026 +25
It’s a very nice tool for money laundering. Let’s not forget it’s real intended purpose.
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no_one_likes_u Mar 23, 2026 +13
It's insider trading for people not important enough to have insider information, but important enough to know about world events before the rest of us.
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thatoneguy889 Mar 23, 2026 +6
It's going to be put to the test. A week or two ago, the Arizona AG filed criminal charges against Kalshi for operating a gambling platform without being licensed as one. It will definitely be interesting to see how that goes.
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[deleted] Mar 23, 2026 +1
[deleted]
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thatoneguy889 Mar 23, 2026 +2
Generally speaking, it's extremely different because there isn't a business with measurable performance metrics being attached to a lot of the things being bet on using these platforms. They're basically doing nothing more than facilitating prop bets.
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Sea-Present-8543 Mar 23, 2026 +127
An Israeli journalist received threatening messages from users of the online prediction platform Polymarket after one of his reports, on a minor missile strike near Jerusalem, suddenly became the focus of an unresolved bet about the Israel-Iran conflict. “After you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you,” said one message to the journalist, Emanuel Fabian. …I had no idea people were betting on wars. Jfc.
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projecto15 Mar 23, 2026 +34
Imagine if he corrected the report. Then the other party to the bet would come and finish him off... Scary shit!
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Alive_kiwi_7001 Mar 23, 2026 +47
I wouldn't be surprised if everyone involved was a teenager. The threats read like something off a game server and I'm surprised no-one said "you can't catch me, I'm behind seven proxies". But a deeper issue is how Polymarket is allowing bets on criteria so fuzzy that a single news story determines the outcome, as opposed to something that is going to be confirmed by multiple outlets. The condition for 'No' is so poorly written, I find it hard to see how the market would make a reliable decision on the payout.
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ToumaKazusa1 Mar 23, 2026 +19
Polymarket gambling seems very risky because the real world isn't a sports game and can't be easily broken down into binary results. For example, did America invade Venezuela? Or was it just a special military operation?
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GoldCoinDonation Mar 23, 2026 +8
There was massive drama awhile back over what constitutes a suit and whether or not Zelenskyy wore one.
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Hvarfa-Bragi Mar 23, 2026 +3
Doesn't matter, Leavitt ended her presser at exactly 65 minutes so she and friends could make 50x bets.
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Be_quiet_Im_thinking Mar 23, 2026 +3
It’s buried in the fine print. Probably said more than x number of soldiers on the ground or something.
3
PasswordABC123XYZ Mar 23, 2026 +2
Special Military Excursion…
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FirstEvolutionist Mar 23, 2026 +17
>people were betting on wars. People were always betting on wars, in one way or another. What is new is the convenience of doing it online, at a global scale, without any repercussions, oversight or government interference.
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throw28999 Mar 24, 2026 +3
Let's be real. They were betting in an abstract sense. On how the war would effect the economy. The same way people would "bet" on how any other major world event effects the economy. Becuase yes, in purely economic terms everything is a gamble. So pointing this out this seems like a semantic-based tautology. Literally placing cash wagers on the outcome of a bomb drop is a new low for humanity, and one I'd like to think we have the space and language to criticize without wallowing in unprodcuctive nihilism. This is a moral stain, regardless of your perspective on economics or government, and I'd like to think most of us can agree on that.
3
UncleChevitz Mar 23, 2026 +3
And betting when people will die. They had bets for podcasters saying specific words on stream, so the same podcasters were just reading off lists of random words they put money on. Totally not rigged.
3
asvalken Mar 23, 2026 +3
Hey! Do me a favor and look at how Trump Jr. is associated with this and ANOTHER betting company that does the same thing!
3
AccomplishedBrain309 Mar 23, 2026 +3
Dont Israelis have the worst record for killing journalists. The journalists covering gaza even stopped reporting their locations after so many were killed.
3
0zymandeus Mar 23, 2026 +12
Iirc the Israeli government is responsible for 2/3rds of all journalist fatalities globally last year.
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ITAdministratorHB Mar 23, 2026 +5
Why is this downvoted? The Israeli government was responsible for 2/3rds of all journalist fatalities globally last year
5
rhalf Mar 23, 2026 -1
Yes, they do. Also you can see it in reactions online from zionists harassing everyone, who calls him a journalist.
-1
Direct_Witness1248 Mar 23, 2026 -3
Lol both comments must have gotten brigaded by downvote bots.
-3
Unlucky-Albatross-12 Mar 23, 2026 +2
Do you believe a free and independent media exists in Hamas-controlled Gaza?
2
gizmozed Mar 23, 2026 +26
Degenerate gamblers, they're the worst.
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projecto15 Mar 23, 2026 +47
Never mind all the deaths -- there's money to be made! /s
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SecondChances002 Mar 23, 2026 +10
War, what is it good for? **Jobs son!** Do you have *any* idea how many people are employed because of war? You want all those people out of work? Stay woke fools. /s
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OptimisticSkeleton Mar 23, 2026 +19
Polymarket and the like should be shuttered. Unregulated gambling like this is obviously being used to profit further off market manipulation and adds financial incentives to geopolitical actions. This shit is more dangerous than skynet when in the hands of unhinged leaders like the Trump regime.
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fullmoon63 Mar 23, 2026 +32
This is exactly why betting on real-world conflicts feels wrong.
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Truand2labiffle Mar 23, 2026 +23
This is exactly why betting feels wrong
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Vic_Hedges Mar 23, 2026 +9
It's not about how it "Feels" It's about how stupid it is. Gambling on things that can be manipulated by people richer than you makes you an absolute sucker. This guy didn't change his story, but who knows how many people would? Everybody who loses money on this site deserves to be bankrupt.
9
norrinzelkarr Mar 23, 2026 +14
This gambling proliferation never should have gotten off the ground.
14
augustbandit Mar 23, 2026 +11
We need to ban all of this gambling. Sports betting, "prediction markets", the Dow. All of it.
11
LeicaM6guy Mar 23, 2026 +19
Man, I can’t wait until this stuff is legislated out of existence.
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Vic_Hedges Mar 23, 2026 +1
You're gonna have to learn to
1
mistertickertape Mar 23, 2026 +5
Shouldn’t they be called prognosticators? After all, Polymarket swears they aren’t a gambling marketplace.
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Michael_Gibb Mar 23, 2026 +6
Betting on current events is just wrong. Is there nothing that is off-limits to money-making?
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TinyRedMushroom Mar 23, 2026 +5
Who could have possibly seen that gambling on real world events would lead to terrible things? But this administration already knows that.
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clovisx Mar 24, 2026 +3
I heard this story on a NPR podcast the other day and it blew my mind. I hate where we are and that this is reality.
3
mikeage Mar 24, 2026 +5
The original story in Fabian's own words, rather than the Guardian's writeup: [https://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-on-polymarket-are-vowing-to-kill-me-if-i-dont-rewrite-an-iran-missile-story/](https://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-on-polymarket-are-vowing-to-kill-me-if-i-dont-rewrite-an-iran-missile-story/)
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projecto15 Mar 24, 2026 +1
Wow, thanks! that's super interesting. The actual messages and other details make it even more terrifying
1
Commercial-Ad-2863 Mar 24, 2026 +2
That article sounded like a Black Mirror episode.
2
_swaggyk Mar 23, 2026 +4
Kalshi and polymarket gonna influence a nuke drop, once Trump’s family has their bets sorted out.
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theb0tman Mar 23, 2026 +2
The Trump family is working on starting their own competing betting company. They want in on that action.
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dqtx21 Mar 25, 2026 +1
Betting on political events should not be allowed.
1
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