Ukraine is going to have to cede Luhansk and Donetsk if they want any chance at a lasting peace. It is unfortunate. The US is not going to help them, Europe is not going to get any more involved. Their best chance is to cede this territory and gain defence guarantees from Europe in the future.
1
4baobaoApr 1, 2026
+1
like it happened after they ceded Crimea?
1
TheAstburyApr 1, 2026
+1
And then they tried to join NATO. The US had no intention of letting Ukraine into NATO, even Zelensky admitted this. Europe is far more open and likely to guarantee Ukrainian independence after this war is over.
1
Successful_Soft_6139Apr 1, 2026
+1
Trying to join NATO to avoid being invaded again seems like a logical choice
1
TheAstburyApr 1, 2026
+1
And yet Ukraine knew that the US would never let them join.
1
springmedsApr 1, 2026
+1
That was a very logical step. What did Russia expect when it took Crimea? It created an enemy for itself with its own hands.
1
Franc000Apr 1, 2026
+1
Well, with the US wanting to leave NATO, I guess that will make it possible then.
1
TheAstburyApr 1, 2026
+1
Yes it would, but that would essentially just make it an alliance with Europe(plus a few extras). Realistically, Ukraine is not going to be able to take these territories back off Russia and they are better off trying to negotiate now before the situation for the civilians of Ukraine gets even more dire.
1
springmedsApr 1, 2026
+1
Ukraine has just crossed the threshold of destroying more infantry than was deployed over the course of a month. It’s time to increase the pace until the aggressor runs out of strength.
1
TheAstburyApr 1, 2026
+1
Russia's strategy has always been throwing infantry at a wall until they stick, they have little care for the lives of their soldiers. This is unlikely to cause them to collapse, Ukraine is unfortunately also running out of soldiers.
1
springmedsApr 1, 2026
+1
But not drones. Let them throw in even more infantry, then the recovery will be even more painful, if it’s possible at all.
1
DemosthenesOrNahApr 1, 2026
+1
Russia started this war \*because\* there is a a NATO membership qualifications that requires prospective member countries to \*not\* be actively at war.
Putin knows that procedurally Ukraine will be barred from NATO so long as the 'military operation proceeds'.
1
springmedsApr 1, 2026
+1
The cost is 50,000 people per month. Losses are already staggering, and they will grow even larger. The country is big but not infinite, somewhere, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.
1
HalfADozenOfAnotherApr 1, 2026
+1
Europe is ready to sellout Ukraine for Russian energy.
1
DemosthenesOrNahApr 1, 2026
+1
Ukraine, the defender, doesnt need to cede anything to the invaders.
Lasting peace comes with regime change in Russia. Thats the only solution
1
TheAstburyApr 1, 2026
+1
Whether you like it or not, Ukraine is not winning this war. It is doubtful that regime change will come anytime soon in Russia.
1
NeilDeCrashApr 1, 2026
+1
Putin is 73 years old. Average life expectancy for males in Russia is 65.1 years.
1
TheAstburyApr 1, 2026
+1
I think you will find that someone with a copious amount of oligarch friends has a much better quality of life and medical care than the average Russian.
1
NeilDeCrashApr 1, 2026
+1
Yes, but he has not been in those circles his whole life.
The life lived is what ends you, not how you live your last years.
1
TheAstburyApr 1, 2026
+1
Even if he died tomorrow, some short term political jostling is unlikely to destabilize Russia enough to give Ukraine the upper hand.
1
NeedsMoreSpaceshipsApr 1, 2026
+1
- I'm not sure that's even true.
- Putin has been President of Russia since his middle age anyway.
- AFAIK he hasn't ever lived some sort of debauched unhealthy life, he's a paranoid health freak.
- Evil people seem to live forever these days apparently.
1
springmedsApr 1, 2026
+1
The same applies to Russia. Spending fifty thousand people per month and gaining microscopic territory, or even losing it, as in March, can’t be called a victory.
1
TheAstburyApr 1, 2026
+1
It is far from defeat though. Unfortunately Russia can keep throwing people at the front lines, Ukraine won't be able to hold out forever.
1
springmedsApr 1, 2026
+1
This is a drone war, the amount of manpower no longer matters as much.
1
urgencynowApr 1, 2026
+1
I wish France sends troops
1
TheAstburyApr 1, 2026
+1
I do too, but it will not happen.
1
springmedsApr 1, 2026
+1
This won’t happen, no one in Europe will want to enter a war when Russia breaks agreements. The only safer scenario for everyone is to inflict an economic and political defeat on Russia. It’s difficult, long, and painful. But it’s working, the oil is already burning.
1
TheAstburyApr 1, 2026
+1
Russia has made 6 billion euros from fossil fuel sales since the start of the war in Iran. It is unlikely that Ukraine will ever be able to inflict significant enough economic damage to Russia to force a peace.
1
springmedsApr 1, 2026
+1
The war costs Russia about a billion a day. So six billion is peanuts that change nothing. Moreover, Ukraine has disabled 40% of oil exports in just one month. It doesn’t matter how much oil costs if Russia can’t export it.
29 Comments