Russia Has Lost More Than 350,000 Soldiers, New Estimate Finds

\> in the sense that their future looks worse and worse. So... just par for the course in Russia?

Yeah, people think this is unsustainable. But it's actually totally nominal for them. It's the standard state that they will maintain essentially forever. If they win a square kilometre of territory a month, then in a hundred years Russian children will inherit a Russia that's 1200km2 bigger. Then they'll march off to die in a ditch and complain that if only mechaputin knew he'd make it better. 

Also the part listnook seems to always happily ignore is that ukraine is bleeding essentially just as badly in terms of demographics. Ukraine had a demographic and brain drain issue similar to russia prior to the war, the war caused loads of people to leave the country, and ukraine has a much smaller pool of potential recruits than Russia. So Ukraine *needs* a 4 or 5 to one casualty advantage just to break even. Their nation has also suffered much more material damage than Russia.

I have a hard time understanding how this many people could die and enough Russians still support the regime at least superficially enough to keep the country functioning. Wouldn’t losing this many people cause massive unrest and the deteriorating of every day life because there just aren’t enough people? Russias population isn’t that big.

> Russia has (perhaps had) a large male surplus because it's easier for young women to leave. The surplus is not that large, and only exists at relatively young ages. The human gender division at birth is roughly 52 boys for every 48 girls. But for several reasons men tend to die earlier than woman. E.g. more risky activities like work in dangerous jobs such as construction, more alcoholism and drug abuse, reckless driving, more participation in violent criminal activities, etc. In addition to certain biological reasons. Therefore, in basically every country on Earth, male life expectancy is a couple of years lower than female life expectancy. In the UK the gap is 4 years, but in Russia that gap is almost 11 years - and that was before the war. One of the highest numbers in the world. Because all those factors I just named are turned up to 11 in Russia. What this means for the population structure is that in each country there are slightly more boys than girls in young cohorts, but at a certain age the women start to outnumber the men. In developed countries like the UK this tipping point is around 50 years, in Russia it's around 35. Overall, women outnumber men in Russia by about 77 million to 67 million.

They haven't started drafting 18-25 year old yet.

Ayy, sincerely appreciate you putting this into modern context for us. Most of us remember world war 2 casualties in the millions and brush off news like this. It’s so true, US would be upside down if it had these casualty numbers over a single conflict/war.

They’re entering a full on demographic crisis.

Russia hasn’t fully recovered from both WWII and Cold War, this massive population loss just exacerbates an already dire situation for the people.

This is from Mediazona too, meaning it's a conservative estimate :/

You'd have to see it as the US army conscripting 800k new people of which 300k died, and the remaining 50k were part of the "actual" army.

>Not if the people dying were from sectors of society that the general public doesn’t care about which is the case in Russia They emptied prisons, took people from all "marginal" kinds of life, rural regions, former Soviet Union pieces, a sprinkle of North Koreans. Shit keeps escalating. Until they start recruiting in mass from the Top 10, 20 largest cities of Russia, the people that can have at least a bit of an opinion won't give a single pity f***.

This is the Mediazona tally which has a lot of strict criteria for being included on it. A significant amount of the 'undesirables' you're talking about aren't even counted, meaning the total is likely much much higher.

Maybe that’s why the middle class is disappearing now…

The waiver system is just because they're typically not worth it when they have other candidates. Especially since the American government gives a lot of money at the family of dead soldiers. If things went down to it, we could absolutely make 80-90% or more eligible for military service. An asmatic, a felon, or somebody with bipolar disorder may be a liability for a mission with a clear and complex objective with well armed and expensively trained soldiers, but it matters much less when you give them a weeks training of how a rifle works, then tell them to charge West or they'll be hung for desertion.

> The primary reasons for this ineligibility include obesity, physical unfitness, mental health issues, and drug use, leaving only a small fraction of young Americans qualified to serve. Russia doesn't give a f*** about any of that, though. The average quality of their soldiers is really, really bad compared to any western military, and, doctrinally, the quality of their front line troops is basically irrelevant.

So if you want to dodge the draft, just get fat and do drugs?

Covid is a lot different in that it heavily discriminated in demographics for casualties. Its a very different statistic.

I remember when on the way out Bush let the economy slide straight into the sewers and went golfing instead of doing anything. And then when Obama came into office they gave him a mountain of shit because he didn't instantly fix the Republican mess with his magic powers. I'll leave this link here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/may/10/usa.uselections2008 The reason I'm leaving the link instead is that I got a 3 day listnook timeout last time I mentioned the historical existence of this happening.

The last ten years or so have really taught me that there are no "lines" for conservatives. They just move their goalpost to support whatever their current idiot in charge says. Anything bad that happens is just the devil's (Democrats) fault. This entire Iran mess, the price of gas, and the economy that's heading off a cliff are all going to be somehow the Democrats fault in a few years. Guaranteed.

The reaction to a war and a pandemic would be very different, a huge chunk of the Republican Party is up in arms right now over the Iran war. Even Tucker “d***-face” Carlson said he regrets supporting Trump over the Iran war. 350,000 American soldiers dying, especially in an offensive war, would ruin the future political prospects of which ever party was in charge for a century.

Dems don't start wars. All the wars in my 50 years were started by Republican Presidents. Yet people said with a straight face that Kamala was going to start WW3.

I know you’re right but you calling people stupid and using the wrong “preys” is kinda funny. But I do agree with you 100%

>Honestly, if Ukraine only has 90,000 KIA at this point, I’d consider that a borderline miracle We (Ukraine) have huge number of MIA, like around 40-50k. 90% possibility those people are dead, yet unconfirmed since no body = no status, but some are are in fact can be found as POW. Basically i know a story where solider status went from MIA to KIA over a years, but recently he was found at some random video from Russia pow camp.

It puts a modern perspective on what aggressive campaigns of war can be like, and historically have been like. A few leaders rally the rich and powerful in society, and together they send mass amounts of men into a war of aggression as if they were a resource to spend. Unfortunately there are a lot of "great generals" and "great military leaders" talked about in war history who are actually just psychopathic monsters like Putin certainly is. That mentality, that men can be spent as blood on the battlefield as a resource with no regard for the value of human life, is happening right now on Russia's side. I wish more world leaders including business leaders would understand that this is an important war to humanity, because it's important that Putin is proven wrong in his attempt to bring back concepts like "meat waves" and spending the male population as a resource to conquer. From a purely utilitarian standpoint (even though of course men deserve to live lives other than the life of a "meat wave"), that many men could build so many bridges, power stations, schools, hospitals, farms, and everything else. But psychopaths like Putin exist out there in the world, and some of them have riches, influence, or power, so it's important that they see that industrial scale "meat waves" doesn't work in the modern world.

Ukraine has been getting large drones into Moscow lately. They have air superiority over Russia. Let that sink in. All they would need is for one of his goons to text his location and it would be over. A bunker is his only safe place.

try again with ublock origin instead whatever shit youre using.. anyways, full article here: Russian president Vladimir Putin has amped up security precautions over fears of being assassinated, according to a leaked European intelligence report. The 73-year-old leader is said to be so concerned about his personal safety that he spends weeks at an underground bunker in the Krasnodar region, according to CNN. Bodyguards, cooks and photographers must be thoroughly screened before being near him and are unable to use their personal phones; instead, they are forced to use devices without any internet access. It also alleges that Putin has stopped going to his residences in Moscow Oblast and Valdai, Novgorod Oblast. This appears to follow unverified claims that Ukraine attempted to attack the Russian president at his personal residence in the Novgorod region. US intelligence found that it had not been targeted, and Kyiv has denied the allegations. The measures have also reportedly been put in place following the killing of a top general, Fanil Sarvarov, in December. Sarvarov was killed by a bomb planted under his car. Internet shutdowns in Moscow are reported to be related to security surrounding Vladimir Putin Internet shutdowns in Moscow are reported to be related to security surrounding Vladimir Putin (AFP/Getty) The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said it had observed “corroborating evidence of enhanced security measures for Putin and high-ranking Russian officials”. “There have been numerous assassinations and assassination attempts against high-ranking Russian officials throughout the war, some of which have been credited to Ukraine, that could be pushing Putin to worry about his safety and the safety of other senior officials,” it said in an update on Monday. “ISW has also observed reports between May 2023 and December 2025 of Russian authorities moving an increased number of short and medium-range air defence systems, including Pantsir-S1 and S-400 systems, near Putin’s Valdai and Moscow City residences. “Ukraine has also been increasing the range, intensity, and frequency of its long-range drone strike campaign, including a drone strike against Moscow City on May 4 that damaged the Mosfilm Tower.” Top Russian general Fanil Sarvarov was killed after a bomb detonated beneath his car in December Top Russian general Fanil Sarvarov was killed after a bomb detonated beneath his car in December (Reuters) Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov suggested that the threat of assassination and the recent success of longer-range Ukrainian strikes had driven the security precautions. “Against the backdrop of this terrorist threat, of course, all measures are being taken to minimise the danger,” he said. According to the ISW, the intelligence report cited Russian sources familiar with Putin who suggested that internet shutdowns in Moscow had been related to security surrounding Putin and anti-drone protection. The assassination of Sarvarov is reported to have sparked division and finger-pointing within Putin’s administration. He is reported to have amended the Federal Protective Service (FSO) regulations to provide security to 10 high-ranking generals after the December 2025 meeting where the fallout occurred. ISW said it had not observed independent evidence to support other claims in the report, such as Putin’s fear of a coup attempt in Russia. The concerns for his personal safety come amid growing backlash over the Russian army’s use of immigrants and reports of frontline soldiers being sent into “meat storms”.

They put the injured back on the front line. Plenty of videos of guys walking around the front with crutches and generally just unfit for combat. Their role is cannon fodder, not shooting back

A good many of them were prisoners too, offered a pardon if they survive a tour on the front lines. I wonder what the societal impact of releasing so many criminals with PTSD will have on society

Well over 1 million are not able to fight anymore as I understand it. That nimber includes the dead.

It’s hard for me, an American, to imagine signing up for the military knowing that my role would be to absorb bullets for a few seconds until the next meat shield behind me’s turn.

And yet we’re seeing repeating patterns right now, they just haven’t been fully realized yet. I don’t have faith that we won’t repeat the same mistakes that have been happening for eons.

Yep. particularly having to support/deal with several million people with PTSD, significant physical disabilities, etc, as well as the hollowing out of the economic reserves of the country

Correct. Roughly 600,000 dead from the North and South combined from 1861 to 1865. With the population of the United States today, that would be between 6 and 7 million dead.

> They've got a horrific KIA:WIA ratio because many of the wounded are either left on the field or recovered, given minimal medical attention, **and then sent back into the line**. That last part could explain a bad ratio if you had the exact numbers, but not a bad ratio as calculated by Ukraine. If the same guy is wounded twice, sent back to the front line, and then killed, Ukraine would most likely count that as two wounded and one killed, because they cannot reliably identify every wounded Russian soldier they report. So it's actually the opposite: it makes the ratio look better, not worse.