Russia may announce general mobilisation to attack Ukraine or Baltic states – Zelenskyy

I've spent a lot of time in Bali and Thailand since the war started and its full of Russians waiting out the war before they can go home. They're mostly the ones with education and resources to work remotely or live from savings or family money.

Don’t they have to leave the country after a certain amount of time? I thought most tourist visas are limited to 90 days - or do they just…not leave?

I was living in Türkiye when the war in Ukraine started and it was the same; entire cities overran by thousands of Russians.

I'm American and worked with a digital marketing agency when the war started. One of my contacts there was Russian, working for a US based company with developers and other employees in Ukraine and Belarus. He was always working from places like Istanbul or Lisbon. He moved around once in a while, said he was visiting friends. I assume he fled early and was trying not to stay in one location too long. I assume many smart young people with means did the same. That means the ones left behind probably had no choice and got stuck in the meat grinder.

The only russians you will see in south east asia are RICH russians. Moscow, st petersburg. The poor ones cant even afford a plane ticket out of the country.

I've been visiting Vietnam for 20 years and there have always been Russians there. It's not a 'since the war' thing.

I don’t know if he actually he wants to ruin his own society, no matter how his policies appear.

this is listnook, i'd usually ask for a source but researched instead. Result and goes into that quite specific: "*These are 'legal formalities that restrict the scope of action of the Ministry of Defense,' says Alexei Zhuravlev, First Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma’s Defense Committee, with regard to a planned legislative reform.* *'We are actually in the middle of a real, large-scale military operation,* ***but war has not yet been officially declared,****'. However, these 'formalities' are quite a challenge.* ***Under current Russian law, the*** **mobilization reserve may only be called up as part of an official mobilization or under martial law.** *The new draft law now provides for a 'streamlining' of the personnel structure of the Russian armed forces specifically changes to the Defence Act, which should make it possible to recruit citizens from the mobilization reserve outside of a mobilization.*" [https://militaeraktuell.at/en/change-in-the-law-russia-mobilizes-the-reserve/](https://militaeraktuell.at/en/change-in-the-law-russia-mobilizes-the-reserve/) Conclusion: therefor it solidifies no change of circumstance under which martial law would be enacted in ru, they rather try to stretch putlers 'special' 3day decree. By the way when he'd declare martial law putler would instant acknowledge his 3day special failed miserably. Or asking a bit sarcastic, guess when they declare it, in 3 days or 3 years?

He does actually. It's Russia, so they follow protocol but they change protocol as needed if Putin wants it.

[deleted]

If you look at the comments above on this post, there's lots of talk about young Russians who immediately fled the country when they saw which way the wind was blowing. These are the smart, motivated people who in previous centuries would have been leading revolts and pushing for change. Easy access to air travel and open borders has meant that bad situations just self-filter for those who will put up with it.

That's cause people were literally starving. Unless that happens there's no revolt

There will be no recruitment officers. Several armed men will come to get you or snatch you off the streets and send to the front. They did it in the past, they will do it again. Anyone refusing to cooperate then was marked as a traitor, facing execution or forced service in "penal battalions" (Shtrafbat) that were sent on high-risk suicide missions. You can only choose if you die horribly or maybe survive.

They are part of NATO, so it will come to their aid. I wouldn’t be surprised if the US pulled some nonsense because of Trump, but the rest of NATO will be there I’m sure.

Ukraine became a military power house during the war, not before it.

Ukraine has dry and flat fields, Baltics are swamps, rivers, lakes, and tons of impassable forests.

They don’t even have the armor for Ukraine right now. Their stocks of tanks have visibly been depleted. I think the T80 is all but killed off. [https://youtu.be/mZY3A2Lb6EM?si=if6r1\_Q7Fh60s7A1](https://youtu.be/mZY3A2Lb6EM?si=if6r1_Q7Fh60s7A1)

Overconfidence is literally why Russia is stuck where it is right with Ukraine right now.

Estonian intelligence says Russia is stepping up hybrid attacks against NATO and preparing for a long-term conflict, just that it's not ready to launch an attack within the next year. Coming from the Baltics, I am admittedly biased. I'm tired of watching Russia invade countries in developments that are completely unsurprising to me, or most in my country, yet somehow shock the US and Western Europe. Russia cannot take on NATO militarily. Putin knows that. NATO knows that. Ukraine knows that. Everyone does. At the same time, destroying NATO would be Putin's crowning achievement, it's something he really wants to do. And he have one path to do so. Militarily, NATO is far more powerful but politically it's not. EU countries don't have a single foreign or military policy, relations with the US are strained now. Putin's one chance is to destroy NATO politically. Invade and quickly occupy at least a couple cities in the Baltic countries. Announce that Russia has no intent to fight more but secured these territories "to protect Russian speakers" and will defend them "as any part of Russia". And then it comes down to whether politicians in the US, Germany, Turkey and other major allies are willing to start shooting at Russia to liberate Narva, a city 99% of the population has never heard of. If NATO doesn't respond very quickly and with overwhelming force, it ends as a credible defense organization. Now I very much hope the response would be immediate in such a scenario but I am not 100% sure of it. And I think it's plausible that Putin will want to test that. Not like he has much to lose, he's getting old and may well decide to shoot his shot while he still has time.

He may not be stupid but he believes what intel his security services gave him. If they tell him that the whole of nato resources are funneled to Ukraine and there is nothing left to defend the rest, he might think he can an advantage by extending the conflict

Russia is already ignoring NATO soveriegn air space and is stand offing with Great Britian and Norway with their navy. Everyone also said Russia would never fully attack Ukraine. Just because its unrealistic and irrational for Russia to attack a NATO nation doesn't mean that Russia has rational actors.

is not realistic at the moment. The problem is that Russia may try hybrid attack. They know that they cannot win with clear attack, as it would trigger aticle 5. But with hybrid attack, where some "green men" would start military operations in Narva and it would be played out as these are locals, can happen. With that many NATO countries can tell that it's your local problem and article 5 won't be executed. Let's not forget that Trump is trying to drift away USA from NATO as is cutting down trust in USA by thousands cuts. While he cannot do that alone and Congress does it, we can see that Congress agrees with everything what Trump does, they don't even question unlawful orders he gives out. Also, he can easily make a deal with Russia - it wouldn't be nothing surprising from him. Spain, Portugal, Slovakia, they don't give a shit whats happening on the eastern border of NATO. Slovakia is even friends with Russia. And we can see that preparations are being done for that. Putin is losing hard in Ukraine, he must to his slaves that he still is a leader. So some small win is needed. What we have for now: 1. Harsh economic situation in Estonia - prices for food are high, energy prices are high. Now because of war with Iran, fuel prices are high, which leads to even more price risings for all the goods. In Narva houses are not insulated. Althouth it's been talked to them by state for years, that “insulate your houses”, they didn't do that, because Narva had one of the lowest prices for the heating. But now that advantage has gone. Median salary in Narva region is about 30% lower than median salarly of Estonia. Pensions are also lower. Most people are not integrated in Estonian society, about 35% are Russian citizens and about 15% are stateless. Now that houses are not insultated is not states fault, but the fault of people themselves, but many of those Russians are still living with their mind in Soviet union or Russia, where the state was responsible for your house. 2. Narva people's Republic. In about 2 months appeared infooperation for separate Narva People's republic. While it's infooperation, and KAPO says that there is nothing to worry about, it still feeds the extremists. And let's not forget that idea about autonomy or even separate republic in North-East of Estonia date back to the period when Estonia regained independence. Althoug it has been dormant for years, it is beeing propgressivly waking up. 3. In Russia there is proposed the law to use military abroad to protect citizens from foreign prosecution. So they are preparing for invasion. Such laws are not made just for fun, but they are preparing it to be used. 4. The accusations about russophobia in Estonia, has been on the rise in Russian propaganda. Not all Russians even with Russian passports in Estonia want Russian world - even if they simp for Russia, they have seen what bringing Russian world has made in Ukraine. But you can take 100-200 persons who have been become extremists and they are already all you need to make big problems in Narva. With today's drone driven warfare they can do a lot of damage and they will be hard to get, if they hide in some basements of the apartment's houses around the city. So, the problem can be made and while it's not something what should keep usual cityzen awake at night, the potential problem is around and needs wise activity from Estonian KAPO, defence forces, by the legalislator (modern laws for antiterrorist activities, responcibilities, etc).

Except now Washington keeps attacking NATO and is too busy with Iran I know i sound paranoid, but you guys aren't costantly threatened by Putin. Mf is vocally saying European industries are legitimate targets now

> Putin isn’t stupid. He knows he cannot take on NATO He thought that he could take Ukraine. Now it's the fifth year and he still believes that. Clearly he is not a smart man.

this is where Putin understands Trump will not help Europe against Russia and will use this window with Trump as president to destroy NATO through Trump's inaction.

>As much as everyone likes to think otherwise, Putin isn’t stupid Right now Russia suffers extreme economic pressure due to Russian authorities constantly turning off mobile internet across the entire country. People can't pay at cafes and convenience stores, taxi and delivery drivers can't fulfill orders. Most people in Russia switched to cash payments simply because you can't pay for goods and services any other way Not a single good reason was given why that's happening. They say it supposedly protects from drone attacks, which we know is not true because drone attacks continue Huylo's approval ratings tanked — and everyone attributes it to internet issues The only plausible explanations we have is that Huylo's admin anticipates an economic shitstorm or they prepare for new mobilization soon. Or he **is** that stupid \-- And as a separate topic, we've known for years that Huylo enjoys antagonizing other countries for no reason. It's some kind of power fantasy he enjoys enacting. And it's only been accelerating lately. For whatever f****** reason he antagonizes both Armenia and Azerbaijan. He antagonizes Kazakhstan. Why? To what end? There's no rational explanation, he just enjoys it. In his mind certain territories should be under his influence and when they act as if to stray away from him he starts lashing out only further alienating them So attacking Latvia/Lithuania/Estonia fits the MO. He genuinely believes that those countries are his by some divine right. And if he thinks NATO will sit on its thumbs, he will attack

Doubt usa is gonna help a lot.

Russian attack on a Baltic country is not realistic *given continued vigilance and development of defenses*. Your second paragraph is partially true, but there is merit to his warnings

You don't have to be stupid to live in an echo chamber, to surround yourself with yes men and live in a state built around venerating you. Intelligent people suffer from hubris too. Putin is old and knows that NATO is the weakest it has probably ever been. Trump will be president for a while yet and there is much more turmoil to come in the USA and middle east. This is the best opportunity he will ever get to fulfill his hearts of iron dreams

History tells us that in this kind of situations dictators start making wilder and wilder maneuvers. I don't think for a minute that Putin will stop. He has no plan B. In fact this kind of people just don't know how to stop even if they wanted to. Think Napoleon, Hitler, Alexander the Great, even Caesar in a way.

The exact reason it's so popular is that it makes people feel comfortable. But it's a fake sense of comfort. As you say, it will be very very ugly for us regular Europeans.

Who knows if that means anything today? That is exactly what Putin may intended to test.

Thing is that you can't really make any strong assumptions about how they will use those resources. Even a country at war needs excess military capacity. E.g. the US is not using all of their military in Iran (why not throw in everything and get a solid victory?). I think it's much more likely that Russia builds a credible defense for the future (remember, they have used up much of their stocks, and they too need to match NATO's capabilities, even if it's just for defense - anything else would be stupid). It's also possible that they plan to make a big push against Ukraine at some point to secure a victory, but that would most likely require a big mobilization that would be very unpopular, so I guess that Putin holds on to that card for as long as possible and hopes that he does not have to use it.

There is no way you believe any of this and certainly not russia magically being able to rebuild itself by 2030? Russia has lost over 1 million men in casualties? All credible sources point to them running dangerously low on armored assets in only 4 years they went from having some of the largest stockpiles to almost no more t-80's and relying on t-62 and 55 from the 1950 and 1960. Russia as it is now will never be a threat to NATO or the EU maybe in 20-30 years, but even then I still do not see it. They will swiftly get their asses handed to then in any engagement land air or sea. Either way if they do somehow rebuild it does not change the fact that they are highly incompetent, ineffective and a inefficient military in terms of planning, coordinating and execution! Hopefully in 2028 when the tides swing blue and we get a pro ukraine admin we can see the quicker fall of putin and the end of his dumb ass war in ukraine. If ukraine does not pull it off themselves with the backing of EU by then. But I'm hoping we get a Tsar Nicholas II scenario for putin to meet his demise, before then.

He learned this way earlier, from WW2 appeasement. If the US wasn't in the picture and the EU had to rely on what they still had left of their own defense then they would turtle and look out for themselves. Everything since then had continued to prove that to be true, so he had no reason to believe taking Ukraine would be any different.

You are right on this one.

Nah. Most people hate Putin and Russia here. Any political party that even suggests of being friendly with Russia doesn't even collect 0.5 % of votes. Ukraine was different because they actually had large pro-Russian regions - even Zelensky initially ran on promises to go to Moskov himself if that meant securing peace. So Putin could infiltrate them under the guise of being a liberator. That would never work in the Baltics.

"I stand for peace! If they steamroll the entirety of Europe, then they immediately win and we get peace!" –morons and f****** Chomsky of all people.

> Many people still parrot yep, like Trump for one.

Yeah. It's sad on all sides. Both Ukraine and Russia, a huge percentage of the people dying are people who were previously civilians and for one reason or another didn't have a choice. It almost seems like people are scared to admit that sometimes, because it doesn't really change anything. It's fundementally Putin's fault. But people are scared to humanize the opposition. Ultimately, everyone at the low level is just trying to survive an awful situation they can't control.