/r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #15)

Well yeah America is at fault. But the blockade isn't going to last very long for them if at all. They slowed traffic before but failed on the Blockade at the same time.

Houthis couldn't blockade last time they certainly couldn't now they are in a significantly weaker position.

More likely a coalition forms against Iran since they're the one's blocking two straits

Best guess is that is created a situation where the people Iran lets through for reasons and blocked again. But carrying that action out just serves to anger even more countries soooo…

A lot of people are trying to rationalise it but the reality is little more than "they didn't close the strait, I closed the strait". It lets Trump pretend he is in charge again which is vital to his ego. Most of the attempts to find a rational reason ignore the fact that the Iranian regime doesn't actually care about Iran

Oil money is around 20% of Iran's GDP, and also important to operating a military. Without that, their economy will crash hard, they won't be able to pay workers, and if USA is lucky and those workers walk off the job, factories will go dark and soldiers will abandon their posts and maybe some towns will surrender if USA offers them humanitarian aid. To be clear, USA is blockading \*Iran. Iran's been blockading \*Hormuz. USA wants to stop ships going to and from Iran but not the Gulf states; Iran's been stopping ships going to and from the Gulf states but not Iran. If you care about international law, USA blockading Iran is probably legal, it's generally an accepted wartime tactic to blockade other countries, but Iran blocking Hormuz isn't, it's illegal to block international waterways.

tldr: Iran is not motivated to present a peace plan acceptable to Trump, so he feels he has to find some way of creating leverage to force Iran to negotiating something that he can find acceptable. Not endorsing this action or the war in general, but once this current war started this was a predictable outcome. Iran as of today, is selling oil for near double what it was 2 months ago, preventing its regional rivals from making the same profit, and at the same time generating revenue from this toll. This toll is small at current traffic, but if fully allowed and the traffic returned to pre-war numbers would represent a giant sum of money(~50B usd/year). The protests that Iran put down earlier this year, were about a lot of things, but a substantial part was its failing economy, so these economic factors are akin to regime survival. These positive economic outcomes are things Iran might have wanted before this war, but did not have the means to do it without paying a heavy price, aka getting bombed massively. Now they've already been bombed, their leadership and equipment have been decimated, but that predictable high price is largely paid. Further bombing of conventional military targets will have greatly diminished effects. So Iran does not feel motivated by the threat of conventional military attacks to make peace offers that return to the status quo, instead their peace offers are a list of demands designed to not be acceptable. On the flip side, the US and Israel has been in proxy war with Iran since the 1980s in Yemen(Houthis), Syria(Assad), Lebanon(Hezbollah), Palestine(Hamas), and Iraq(PMFs, sectarian violence during Iraq war, and with US backing of Saddam before that). It has been the goal of every American administration to limit Iran's technological and economic ability to arm and finance these different proxies. So any result that massively increases Iran's ability to do so would be considered a massive loss. Even though every administration finds Iran's proxies/terrorist groups unacceptable, and the US has the military ability to destroy Iran, this has not previously turned into a hot war. It was extremely predictable that such a conflict would cut oil flow, create economic disruptions, and result in unbearable political pressure in the US. For whatever reason, trump thought he could have the best of both worlds at once. He thought that he could achieve some list of conventional military strikes, perhaps an uprising would happen, and then exit the war back to the status quo within a few weeks. It turns out, bombing a country makes the population feel a "bunker mentality" and they typically rally around their government even if they had previously disliked them. No uprising has occurred, Iran's threats and limited attacks were enough to cut Hormuz crossing to a trickle, and the net result is that Iran finds itself in a stronger political and economic position then before the war started. Normally in a war, if neither side has the means to secure shipping lanes, both sides deny the other safe passage. However in this case the US is so sensitive to oil price shocks, they are allowing Iranian oil to go through, and avoiding strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure. Allowing Iranian oil to flow has helped keep oil from raising too high, but also creates this extremely favorable situation to Iran. If Trump wants better terms, he has to stop Iranian oil in a way that can be reversed(aka not bombing) so that it can be used a negotiating lever.

Not only does it cut Iran's money, it prevents Iran normalizing control of the strait and using that to try and keep post war control.

Even before the war, Iran's economy was severely strained. Inflation was over 50%. Their currency (Iranian Dinar) was valued at worse than 1 million Dinars to the US dollar. Most of their 'Foreign Currency Reserve' is in accounts that have been frozen due to sanctions. That makes it really hard to pay for things, like all the food that they import. They are very dependent on generating income by exporting oil. A big fraction of that goes to China. China is very dependent on imports of foreign oil. The US does import oil but overall, the US exports more oil and LNG than it imports. FWIW, China has a Strategic Reserve of about 1.2 billion barrels of oil. The other major world economies have about 1.8 billion barrels in reserve.

It's the US hedging their bets that by completely cutting the oil flow and accelerating the economic consequences Iran will give in before economic pressure forces the US to. Personally, I question the rationality of assuming a fundamentalist theocratic regime will give up due to economic pressure before the global economy does, but I'm not the president of the US.

Basically, if it's blockaded then what's left of Iran's economy will crumble, soldiers don't tend to work well if they can't be paid and after a few week's Iran's going to be struggling to do that if they can't sell their oil. It would also kill any incentive to make a deal with Iran since there's nothing to be gained from it. Also China won't be happy and it could lead to them pressuring Iran to agree to whatever the US wants in order to avoid China having to deal with any issues. That assumes that the blockade is handled properly though, if Trump goes back and forth on it as he has with many other things in this war then Iran and it's allies may feel it's better to try and wait it out for a little thinking he will reverse course.

Land based assets are still flowing into the region. It is a way to do something that doesn't require them and see if that works as a way to pressure Iran. China can be bought off with Oil by the US with a preferred pricing model as a way to give China a Carrot to play along. Plus from Trumps perpsective it also fucks over Nato Countries at the same time if he does something like this. Drives prices of for Oil in the US is the problem for US citizens but REALLY drives up the prices for EU countries. But Trump at this point doesn't give a flying f*** about US citizens. Only his Maga base who will never turn on him. It avoids a direct confrontation with Iran unless they initiate it. It punishes Nato. And it creates a dependency on China for US Oil Temporarily.

Well, it's been explained to me that the $4-10 million dollars a day the IRGC was getting from their tollbooth was the vast majority of their money keeping their entire regime alive, which is...an interestingly low amount of money to keep a whole regime alive, but what do I know? Also, something about starving out the Chinese from their oil, because China is a famously poor country that cannot afford gas at a few dollars more a gallon or something. I mean, personally, I think it's just market manipulation by Trump because this is an easily reversible position that causes huge market movements, but, I have been accused of having Trump derangement syndrome in the past so you might want an unbiased source to explain it better.

It’s exactly that. They’re trying to take away whatever bargaining power Iran has, regardless of who it hurts

Ah, the mythical triple blockade. The trifle of the sea.

Username does *not* check out

> Pressuring partners to assume responsibility for secure passage. What partners?

I remember when I could afford beef...

They'll sink iranian ships like they have been doing and no one will want to risk it. Any that do could easily be boarded and seized just like that russian tanker.

Centcom announced it that means it's happening, it's not just a random tweet. And it reads like a complete naval blockade of Iran not Hormuz. And no they will not sink civilian ships like Iran. The ships will be notified of the blockade and most will anchor or turn around. For the ones that challenge it, the navy would potentially board and impound the ship and cargo. Most tankers going to sanctioned countries fly under false flags IE Venezuela when the US was seizing Russian tankers, they weren't sailing with a Russia flag but Russia sent naval assets to try to e***** them so they were obviously Russian. So will they directly challenge a Chinese tanker that tries to ignore the blockade? Maybe - they did it with Russia. Will it actually be flying under a Chinese flag? Probably not, even if the destination or origin is China. Will they sink them? No, they will commandeer and impound them. They'll only sink military vessels that try to bypass the blockade. And China isn't sending any military vessels to Iran. Will China start WW3 if the US seizes a China bound tanker? No they'll do nothing, that's what they always do.

I think the thing is Chinese tankers are likely not willing to risk possibly being fired upon by the US Navy and risking some sort of diplomatic incident and endangering their cargo. Unless China orders them to do so to f*** with Trump, but generally speaking the Chinese seem content to f*** with Trump to his face and in larger ways, so idk. I still think high chance he walks back the blockade tomorrow or Tuesday to do his market thing but we'll get some fresh hell to deal with in the coming days.

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Wow, it's almost like the Trump administration thought *neither* decision through!

The AI on google search can write the prompts for you to just copy and paste, as I found out when I googled some listnook comment. I's assume other AIs can do it too.

I always assumed it worked in reverse where he has a team of trolls generating a bunch of obnoxious bullshit. Then he picks his favorites to post online.

If it's anything like social media management for a more traditional profile, there's probably a person or team who creates images and drafts text for him and then he's presented with those drafts and given a chance to approve or change them. Although at this point even that could be delegated by someone else entirely.

Toss that on the pile of examples of how my family has been financially screwed by this administration.

Yeah idk about anyone else but I’m feeling it

Thanks Biden!

The roughly 35% who are his base? Likely never. It's a cult. They go all the way. Outside of the MAGA cult, it depends. A lot of Hispanic voters who supported him have turned against him because leopards ended up biting *their* faces instead of other people's. "Independent" voters who supported him... it also depends. They have a very high tolerance for him being a pedo and extremely corrupt but now that his policies from tariffs to war are hitting their wallets, many are turning against him too. Democratic voters never supported him to begin with and they are now more motivated than any time in the past.

Around November some time. We aren't like a parliamentary model where you can call a vote of no confidence. We have scheduled elections unless someone dies gets resigns or expelled. So not much can be done until November. Anyone calling for a the 25th amendment needs to understand that is virtue signalling and not a realistic chance which is the majority of the cabinet puts Vance in charge temporarily until the senate decides on the matter. Which requires 2/3 of them agreeing. Which won't happen.

I was in the Georgia countryside today and I saw Trump/Vance 2028 flags. These people are beyond help.

The GOP was captured by Trump in 2020, when he refused to concede his election. That allowed him to hold the 40ish percent of conservative-leaning voters who worship him, making it impossible for GOP politicians to disagree without ending their careers and potentially being at risk of violence. Trump used this position to absolutely strip dissent out of the GOP structure, and replace it with loyal opportunists. And now, Trump is making those people filthy rich by stripping the US for parts and letting his inner circle profit from it. This Iran war is likely the best thing that could have happened to America at this stage, because the GOP will absolutely lose the midterms in a massive landslide now, robbing Trump of much of his power, and ultimately setting his GOP up for defeat and disarray from 2028 onward.

Never. The elites have successfully propagandized the population after nearly a century.

why cant you be patient for the inevitable but slow decline of US influence and leverage. Most empires have a protracted period of decline. Hoping for Trump or Trumpism to end is 2x2 chess. Waiting for US slow unraveling is the real 8x8.

maybe when hell freezes over at how cultist they are

They're done. They're stripping out the copper wiring before the fire burns the whole thing down.

Not until the mobs with pitchforks come out.

Everyone's been asking that question for a long time...

lol, you have to admit those pictures were funny. The pope should have a better sense of humor.

He’s evangelical Jesus, not Catholic Jesus.

I’m not sure what your point is - that’s just a little after the time the stock market opens, but what’s the meaning behind this? It’s weird because in the past, people were saying that Trump was actively trying to avoid significant actions during trading hours. Now it’s the opposite?

Russia has been at war for 4 years. That country ain’t healthy just falling apart 

Russia is already dealing with large inflation and economic stagnation. They're in a very bad position if the world enters a global recession from this.

Yeah. And they'll probably just send weapons through the Caspian to keep this going.

I've said it before and will say it again: he's the closest we've ever come to an actual Antichrist. You can literally pick up the Book of Revelation, write down the list of attributes and Trump will tick almost every single checkbox. And American Evangelicals, of course, are still voting for him since he has the "right" melanin proportions (not really hiding it either at this point). I think America will never truly recover from Trump's Presidency.

Yeah, this was a big mistake by Trump. Hispanics tend to be catholic. And you just gave them another reason to not vote for his party. But he never looks that far ahead. If I were a Texas rep with a large hispanic population and a republican at the same time I would be bashing Trump like crazy for this.

Then he cant complain when the crucifixion comes. He is practically begging for it.

I particularly like the four-armed statue of liberty beast alongside the military angels above him.

Damn, it was only like half an hour ago I again thought to myself "this is it, this is the bottom. It can't get any dumber than this."

Is he trying to cure Dr. House? The OG Jesus?

A bit before, he made a post where criticized the pope because of the stock markets, as the Succession of Petri was apparently somehow about the financial markets.

This was after he shit-talked the Pope.

When people compare themselves to Jesus you tend to laugh and think they’re insane. It becomes a far more concerning situation when it’s POTUS saying it.

Satire is dead.

US evangelicals, you good with this? I mean, I know you've been supporting him through lies, but depicting himself as the Savior?

The guy is a moron. The 25th amendment was added after Kennedy got shot because they didn't know what to do if the president was alive but unresponsive. President can just write to Congress that he's fine and then it's a vote that is even harder than Impeachment. In the extremely improbable possibility he is removed, it will be impeachment not the 25th

and the vance the pope killer is the new boss, you really want that?

> Come on, USA, ya can do it - overthrow your very crazy potus. Trump's cabinet is filled with some of the most extreme loyalists who know that they wouldn't have anywhere near their positions without him. Those are the people you would have to convince to turn on Trump to invoke the 25th amendment.

Did he ask the Pope to send his navy?

How long before he says Leo should be more like Pius XII?

He's not wrong, but I'm not sure Trump is the best person to give lessons about dealing with pedos

Damn also like the dude believes in “turning the other cheek”? Or that weird one where “how many times should I forgive my brother if he knocks me down? 7? And Jesus said “surely 7 times 7” or that line where Peter has his ear cut off and goes to slash his attacker and Jesus grabs his arm and says “stop, those whose live by the sword, will die by it.”

It's like saying a doctor is “weak on disease” because they talk about prevention, recovery, and long-term care instead of just amputating more limbs

Would be so funny if the Pope started excommunicating Trump or his cronies

Get ready for the Schism of Mar-a-Lago. I'm barely joking.

This will be very interesting for most conservative Catholics in the US to digest.

IMHO, there's an opportunity here for Trump to extort someone else while painting it as a win for the US war machine and a win for the US economy. It's going to happen.

......please just read the thread about how China is effected, I'm begging your average person interested about world news... just please read up on basic facts about the theatre before posting twitter level arguments

> The US is unlikely to escalate against a major power like China or Europe, so they’d likely let them pass the blockade In other words they'll help enforce Iran's blockade and nothing has changed except Trump claiming it's him doing it now.

1) naval blockade 2) ????? 3) profit!

Oppositional defiancing Iran into reopening the strait certainly is *a* strategy.

There's no three dimensional chess. It's just one dementia patient.

I feel like that is looking for logic and reason where there is likely only market manipulation.

The number of nonsensical pro-war comments responding to this is genuinely hilarious.

Because notoriously accepting a blackmailer’s request means you are done with it and will never come back asking for more

Pay the tolls for how long? Iran will gladly collect tolls for decades unless something changes. Paying the tolls would be around 200 million per day. After a few months, it would become comparable to the cost of the war.