If you see any newsworthy information from a major news outlet or live broadcast, feel free to share a brief summary as a top-level comment in the discussion post.
Other listnookors will appreciate if you include the source of where you read, saw, or heard the information.
From Islamabad here. Heavy contingents of police/security forces and multiple check posts in Islamabad. The hotel (Serena) used for the last talks, is being deep cleaned with new artwork on walls and what not. Hostels evacuated of students etc, it’s almost as if they’re expecting the delegations max tomorrow or day after.
11
Aggravating-Top-79768 hr ago
+1
Unless he's talking directly to the IRGC these talks mean nothing
1
Malefic_Trout9 hr ago
+8
[Dawn News - over 10,000 police personnel deployed on security duty](https://www.dawn.com/news/amp/1993151)
8
cj3759 hr ago
+5
I’ve been following your posts in here about Islamabad (which are awesome so thanks), but do you think it’s definitely for talks? Just seems weird given all the rhetoric
5
dscreations8 hr ago
+1
I think they're preparing for the possibility that talks happen, but it remains to be seen whether they actually will.
>Two Pakistani security sources say negotiations between the United States and Iran will likely be held before Friday - Al Jazeera
1
Malefic_Trout8 hr ago
+1
Absolutely possible. A few people here reported a C17 Globemaster landing at Nur Khan Airbase in Rawalpindi today morning and departing very soon after .. (RCH3298) .. not sure how to track and confirm this
1
hayjay20009 hr ago
+1
It IS cool following their posts AND interesting, but I (from the US) am not so sure it's for talks at all. Stuff here in the US keeps saying that preparations are being made to return to war.
1
rabidstoat8 hr ago
+1
It could be the possibility of a last ditch negotiation attempt before official end of cease fire.
It could be that Trump is indicating willingness to negotiate to get those last couple of ships a little closer -- and, of course, to keep the markets happy during the week.
1
Malefic_Trout9 hr ago
+1
Yeah, not sure what to believe , but I haven’t seen this level of prep for anything less than something massive.. I mean maybe they’re anticipating and ensuring readiness in case they convince everyone to come to the table , but that’s just highly unlikely, because of the level of disruption being caused for public transport and the entry points to the city being cordoned off etc. the dawn news link I posted , this is a reputed news agency , they’ve commented that advance Iranian and US delegations are expected to start arriving from today 🤷🏻♂️
1
ObjectiveHornet6768 hr ago
+1
It could be that talks are agreed and planned, and war prep is part of the US negotiation strategy.
1
hayjay20009 hr ago
+1
Interesting. Guess we'll have to wait and see! Thank you for the updates from Islamabad!
1
jews4beer9 hr ago
+1
Yea and this morning in Israel I've been watching US military jets fly into Ben Gurion all day and the IDF has been signaling that the ceasefire could collapse soon. Though they did also lift wartime restrictions last night so who fuckin knows anymore.
1
hayjay20009 hr ago
+1
In Israel? That's cool! What do you think about this whole situation?
1
jews4beer9 hr ago
+1
It was always going to happen, no matter who was in power. Especially after October 7th and the Hezbollah and Houthi attacks. When Assad fell I'd say it pretty much became a when not if.
That being said I'm not particularly enjoying living it and I really wish it was a different coalition running it. Bibi has long lost all of his geopolitical good will.
1
Maximum-Specialist6110 hr ago
+16
I think it can be argued objectively that Trump is weakest president US ever had, the damage that he did to the US reputation is almost irreversible on global stage, nobody see US as not predatory country anymore, and no, electing someone else not gonna fix the damage done. On top of that Trump administration is legit morons, with all of this: "we just gonna bomb iran and hope for the best", he is not gonna fix the Hormuz straight shitshow, and just gonna drag this whole thing until he is no longer president so it would be next president headache.All of that inside trading too. Sad there is gonna be 0 accountability for this epstein island lover, sick man in charge made the world only worse and more dangerous for everybody around, while he making money with stocks manipulations.
16
machopsychologist8 hr ago
+1
The thing is, they can recover quite quickly. The world hasn't fully committed to divesting themselves off of US tech. and in fact, many would rather not have to. It would take decades.
1
llDS2ll9 hr ago
+6
>and no, electing someone else not gonna fix the damage done
People have short term memories. The US could theoretically recover, but a lot of things would have to go right, and the likelihood is close to 0.
6
Which_Appointment45010 hr ago
-11
Why tf are these things so slow
-11
katieggg10 hr ago
+19
I’m so sorry that a war with people dying isn’t living up to your expectations
19
Which_Appointment45010 hr ago
-8
I mean it in a week or so then there will be less pain why prolong it So much
Just do it fast
-8
Abbx11 hr ago
+12
The Iranian internet has now been down for 51 days. Who knows if they'll even open it again at this point? I don't understand how this isn't a more intensive discussion point than it's been. Their goal at suppressing the voices of their people while the world turns a blind eye is working. And we're just quiet, collectively, as a planet about that. The Iranian people seem to have few allies, while the Islamic Regime has many.
I believe ending the blackout is important enough to be a negotiation term at this point. All the regime has done is hold things hostage to gain leverage because they have nothing else. If we're still involved with them via the war and looking to exit, I believe it's an important additional request to be made. I'd prefer they don't become North Korea.
12
Illustrious-You186911 hr ago
+5
THANK YOU. Finally someone else is highlighting this. No one apparently gives a f that these people have been surviving with no internet. People in this day and age cannot even fathom it. Whenever a single social media network goes down it’s pandemonium and these people have no reach whatsoever to the outside world. The only way is to pay extortionate amounts for vpn for a single 1gb which mostly never work or are run by the same people who have shut the internet. Iranians even more now largely live in austerity and buying vpn is a luxury that many can’t afford when even buying milk or bread is a struggle. I can’t believe it wasn’t a point in negotiations. In somewhat good news or whatever you can call it, Iranintl did report that they said they’ll be rolling out internet access again starting with professors. It’s ridiculous that it has taken this long and the west has not even made a fuss about it.
5
TheGodPePe10 hr ago
+8
As far as I am aware, they do have some sort of internet still. Because they are moving to remote learning on Tuesday. But the key point is that their internet is an internal network and the blockage refers to blocking external networks/servers.
8
_Ulfric9 hr ago
+2
Yeah, I have an online friend from Iran and she can use internet these days even though is limited and I receive updates from her point of view. According to her prices there for food is now on an absurd level. Eggs for example are like 3 days of work. And many people becoming unemployed.
2
Abbx9 hr ago
+1
Can corroborate. My wife and friends are there. Contact via phone calls/crazy expensive black market internet packs (like 1GB data for $4-5 for them)
Food prices are 3-5x more expensive than they were. Friends losing jobs due to not being able to pay them and lack of available work. Even schools and different types of institutes are in minimal operation, with teachers/instructors on standby.
Probably the biggest economic crash the country has seen.
1
iwantboringtimes11 hr ago
+15
I had to double-down on renewable energy good news to keep stress from THIS from mucking up my work schedule.
atm, I'm reading article on The Guardian titled:
> Who’d have thought a fossil-fuel shill like Trump would be the one to spark a green revolution?
> The US attack on Iran has made the need for renewable energy inarguable. Environmentalists are now being seen for the pragmatists that they are
*thanks trump*
15
maeunKiD11 hr ago
-2
Is the ground invasion starting today?
-2
Wermys9 hr ago
+1
No, best guess would be next week after markets close. They might go after some channel islands but my gut tells me they will wait on this. Or Tuesday since they want to position there stock buys and shorts first before kicking things off. FYI this wouldn't be a full invasion. It literally going to be taking all the Islands in Hormuz and Maybe the city along the coast in the straight since it can be isolated due to how mountains Iran is with cutting off access routes. The issue is feeding the populace which is why I think they are going to skip invading the mainland .
1
Superest2210 hr ago
Invasion is a very different thing to a raid.
It would require a million odd troops, possibly more, realistically to actually invade Iran.
0
DozingUnderTheSun11 hr ago
+7
I still think both sides will wait until the ceasefire runs out to try to look good or justified or something. But more bullshit will happen in the meantime.
7
dscreations11 hr ago
+10
Unlikely with the Boxer ARG still weeks away. Bombing campaign starting up again seems more likely
10
dscreations12 hr ago
+4
Ummm? I would not want to be anywhere near the remaining Iranian leadership right now.
>More atypical traffic is being broadcast by the Mercury E-6B "Doomsday planes".
>
>A 12 group message.
>
>This could be part of something big.
- NEET Intel
4
Gadshill10 hr ago
+5
A 12-group message is a specific length of coded instruction. While Emergency Action Message (EAMs) are broadcast daily for training, "atypical traffic" or an unusual volume of these messages often indicates that real-world targeting data or alert-level changes are being transmitted to strategic forces (submarines and silos).
5
hayjay200010 hr ago
+3
Meaning what in this particular instance?
3
Gadshill10 hr ago
+4
It is possible that US is positioning for final options. It signals that the window for a diplomatic solution is closing in favor of overwhelming force.
4
hayjay200010 hr ago
+1
Let's just hope that doesn't mean nukes. Because coming from an E-6B that's a little nerve-wracking.
1
llDS2ll10 hr ago
+6
By broadcasting these messages, the U.S. is signaling to Iran that its nuclear command and control systems are fully operational and "online," serving as a deterrent against further escalation or the use of heavy ballistic missiles.
6
hayjay200010 hr ago
+2
I guess I should say let's hope that there's no INTENTION of actually using nukes.
2
llDS2ll9 hr ago
+2
This is a standard tactic, I'm sure. It also signals that we're ready to resume the war.
2
GCU_ZeroCredibility11 hr ago
+7
Gotta stop listening to paranoid Twitter randos, my friend.
7
minisculepenis10 hr ago
+3
They’re usually the only ones that get it right these days
3
dscreations10 hr ago
+5
Monitoring radio transmissions is this guy's thing.
5
hayjay200011 hr ago
This has me ON EDGE
0
dscreations11 hr ago
+8
And Trump posted this
>Live performance of Frank Sinatra’s “My Way” posted tonight to TruthSocial by U.S. President Donald J. Trump.
8
SnoopRocket10 hr ago
+2
Not to freak anyone out, but numerous atypical EAMs seem to follow major health crises or times when POTUS or SECDEF are incapacitated. See Trump’s first bout with COVID. Lots of activity, moreso as a signal to others that readiness isn’t dropping than anything else, imo.
2
linfakngiau2k2311 hr ago
+2
Is this real perfomance or some AI slop
2
dscreations13 hr ago
+16
>Israeli military officials are preparing for the ceasefire to potentially collapse, and have updated target sets in Iran, this time including the Iranian power grid -Maariv News
16
jphamlore15 hr ago
-16
I believe both the CIA and Mossad or whatever is the Israeli equivalent would have evaluated that the current war would leave the IRGC as the unambiguous absolute rulers of Iran, with Ayatollah Khameini's successor an IRGC puppet, and with the civilian government shorn of its veneer of having any influence on decision making.
Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. One can speculate this is following the old playbook of how the Baath Party in Iraq was schemed to have a ruthless dictator such as Saddam Hussein become Iraq's leader, so that eventually the thugs at the top in charge would purge whatever true believer socialists remained. After all, socialism back then was thought to be the true enemy of the United States.
Sometimes, or sadly oftentimes, it seems to be seen in the United States interest to have a gang of corrupt thugs in charge, a gang that would presumably be at odds with the ordinary people, so that a country would be less of a threat.
-16
xmuskorx14 hr ago
+9
Mossad may believe that medium to long term control by IRGC will run Iran into the ground economically.
9
AprilsMostAmazing14 hr ago
-5
Mossad may also have interest in the Epstein files not coming out
-5
xmuskorx14 hr ago
+8
You guys can never decide if mossad created the files or if they want to keep them secret.
Yaaaaaan
8
GCU_ZeroCredibility14 hr ago
-5
The important thing is apparently that, one way or another, it ends up being the fault of the jews.
-5
mitch-22-1216 hr ago
+44
In retrospect killing larijiani was a big mistake that led the irgc to get a greater foothold on running the country. He was a hardliner, but also one of the few political figures in Iran that could smooth over tensions with the irgc and get them on board with a deal. You have to wonder if complicating peace talks was what Israel intended by killing him in the first place
44
SocialistNixon12 hr ago
+9
Israel knocked the most ruthless but pragmatic leader in Iran out for a reason, it’s possible he would have made a deal with Trump to stay in power.
9
xmuskorx15 hr ago
+5
Depends for who.
For Israel, this was about sending a message: 'if you create something like October 7 ever again: we will get YOU personally. Not just your cronies. We mean YOU.' how this will affect future leaders? Only time will tell.
For US? A lot more questionable.
5
EducationalCicada10 hr ago
+3
Man, how can Israel still not understand the psychology of their enemies after all this time?
3
S-Sun12 hr ago
-8
Iran has no influence on Hamas, and never had. Israel would rather bomb Qatar, that much closer to Hamas.
Iran has nothing in common with October 07th event
-8
jews4beer11 hr ago
+4
You should do a Ctrl-F for Iran on the Hamas wikipedia page. Iran has the *largest* influence on Hamas. To suggest otherwise is just pure idiocy.
4
S-Sun10 hr ago
+1
Wikipedia isn't a source. Why then Hamas has a headquarter in Doha, but not in Tehran?
Iran has never significantly supports Hamas. Hamas receives main support from Gulf countries + Turkey.
Besides, the main difference is Hamas sunnies, whereas Iran is Shia country. I do understand to connect all negative to Iran, but no, Iran has nothing in common with October 07th attack.
1
jews4beer10 hr ago
+2
People sure do love to use it as a source. But you are just completely divorced from reality.
2
S-Sun10 hr ago
I know, however, it just fun website with changing narratives to what some people want to present. It's not the final truth.
0
jews4beer10 hr ago
+1
So trust the articles it cites. Either way. Iran is Hamas main backer. And there is no world where you can say otherwise. They aren't even trying to hide it.
1
S-Sun10 hr ago
+3
Hamas even condemned Iran due to his attack on the Gulf States, is this how much they are supportive?
Hezbollah has direct financial and military help from Iran, Hamas no, they financed by Gulf countries mainly.
3
jews4beer10 hr ago
No matter how many times you say it to yourself it's not gonna be true.
0
asetniop14 hr ago
+17
Seems like the geopolitical equivalent of the death penalty. You want it to be a deterrent, so you convince yourself that it will. But it never is.
17
TheColourOfHeartache13 hr ago
-3
The metaphor doesn't work. What deters crime is the certainty of punishment not harshness. But more consistent less harsh options don't exist in this war.
Criminals are known to have a poor sense of future consequences. Top statsmen are less so
-3
FrostPDP14 hr ago
+2
Well said.
2
CoyotesOnTheWing18 hr ago
+36
I don't think the US restarts strikes until the USS Bush carrier group arrives. It should be on the eastern side of Africa by now, expected to arrive roughly this coming Friday.
The USS Boxer amphibious group was estimated to arrive mid week too.
So I fully expect being jerked around by news constantly to continue for the next week, just a lot more lies and contradictions while time is bought but nothing changes.
36
jews4beer14 hr ago
+9
I actually wouldn't be surprised if something happens tomorrow. I counted three massive US jets landing in Ben Gurion this morning over the course of an hour.
9
itsatumbleweed13 hr ago
+4
Sorry, do you mean something regarding talks or regarding bombing? What kind of jets? Like which purpose?
4
jews4beer13 hr ago
+5
Regarding bombing. And I'm not well versed enough to know what kind. They looked like refuelers maybe. I just know when they are painted grey thats murica.
5
itsatumbleweed13 hr ago
+2
Ah hah. You had eyes on Ben Gurion. I assumed you meant via flight tracker or something.
Thanks for the info. There was a report earlier that said that strikes may resume if there isn't a deal by the end of the weekend so that totally checks out.
2
jews4beer13 hr ago
+4
Yea I live in Tel Aviv so I see all the traffic going in and out of there. And those military planes are f****** loud.
4
itsatumbleweed17 hr ago
+10
They might start with strikes ahead of a ground invasion
10
tundra44513 hr ago
+5
I think it's also important to define ground invasion. There is a big difference between invading Iran mainland (I don't think that is in the cards) and clearing Iranian positions on some of the tiny islands like Abu Musa.
5
itsatumbleweed13 hr ago
+2
For sure. I figured it would be an island. Trump has been talking about taking Kharg for decades but I think that would not go well.
2
spatchi1417 hr ago
+5
Why did Bush go via Africa and Ford via the Suez?
5
PictureWonderful709115 hr ago
+4
"What's up with shipping" youtube channel had a good theory. The Ford was damaged and needed to get to repairs ASAP, it was worth taking the canal to Crete. The canal is an area where aircraft carries are vulnerable, their location is known, they're stationary for periods of time, ect. His theory is that for safety the bush went the long way.
4
itsatumbleweed17 hr ago
+4
I think Ford was already in the Mediterranean for repairs. Dunno if that affected things.
4
CoyotesOnTheWing17 hr ago
+3
I think it's just that Ford started the trip after the ceasefire was in place, so I guess they figured the danger was low enough to slip on through during the calm.
Otherwise it would have delayed its arrival to the Arabian Sea area a couple of weeks if it went around.
3
[deleted]18 hr ago
-1
[deleted]
-1
CoyotesOnTheWing17 hr ago
+3
No, just based on when they were last seen and we know where they were headed. So it's rough estimates based on distance and average speeds. Things like sea conditions/weather and how hard they are pushing can easily change the arrival date by a day or two on these long voyages.
3
racer24ftw18 hr ago
+12
Are there any updates about talks between the US and Iran? I don’t think a deal is happening
12
itsatumbleweed18 hr ago
+19
A report a few posts down says the US and Israel are ready to start war again if there's not a deal this weekend.
19
OnlyRise981618 hr ago
+24
It's becoming apparent that there isn't any use to talks atm. The faction that would be conducting those talks, and the one that controls the actual armed forces(and thus the reality on the ground) are following entirely different scripts. And so far no one has the actual power in Iran to force everyone to follow a set policy.
24
FickleBumblebeee14 hr ago
+4
You're ignoring Trump completely undermining any talks by victoriously posting about them on social media whilst they're still ongoing, and therefore completely undermining the talks and his interlocutors
4
Mana_Seeker17 hr ago
+5
Buys time for the set up
5
zoobrix17 hr ago
+21
Sure degradation of the Iranian leadership structure is a problem in negotiations but keep in mind they're also negotiating with a thoroughly incompetent and untrustworthy US administration. When you look at how often Trump changes the goalposts in all of his trade negotiations I can't imagine trying to negotiate a peace treaty with his band of morons. The constant lies and backstabbing that is endemic with Trump and his cronies must make negotiating with them a total shit show, and whatever you think you might be in agreement on can be thrown out by Trump during his next tantrum.
I get Iran might have trouble presenting a unified diplomatic front right now but the US government is a walking disaster and I am sure is a huge barrier to getting a deal done as well.
21
eggnogui17 hr ago
+13
I don't envy those Pakistani mediators.
13
asetniop13 hr ago
+2
I do. Isalamabad seems like such a fun place, what with all the waterslides. It's like there's one around every corner!
2
PleasantWay718 hr ago
+6
Kinda what happens when you start the killing deep into the leadership structure from the top. The longer it goes the more IRGC factions are likely to splinter, to the point it will be very difficult to keep the strait open.
6
Predictor9218 hr ago
+17
The diplomatic corp and the IRGC seem to be on different pages
17
Dongsquad420Loki18 hr ago
+6
Yea Iran seems internally split between the IRGC and the civil goverment. Whiel the civil side has some influence, as in we saw that attacks stopped for a while, especially those in Gulf states it apparently is not capable of selling the current deal to the IRGC which has most of the weapons
6
Doomergeneration18 hr ago
+8
Totally broken down I believe
8
avdvetf18 hr ago
+19
I think both Iran and Trump have realized they can continue this deal-no-deal dance going indefinitely and keep profiting off insider trading on the markets.
19
Stewart_Games16 hr ago
-1
With Russia sanctioned and the Gulf strangled, who is still selling oil? The USA. At this rate America, with Texas refineries having easy access to Venezuelan crude, will become the largest oil exporter on Earth. And with that as leverage, Trump will lean on the EU to sign a Greenland for fuel deal. This isn't fearmongering it's what the Republicans are openly salivating over. This is "the plan" for Iran. They want the Gulf to be a mess, it benefits the United States.
-1
p25112 hr ago
+1
Europe barely gets oil from middle east. They drill their own in the north sea.
1
1QAte416 hr ago
+7
America has a lot of oil but it is only a small part of the economy. The American economy is services dependent. And that is very sensitive to high oil prices.
7
Wermys12 hr ago
+1
Not really to the extent you make it. We are pretty insulated from the higher end costs of this. Since as a worst case scenario we sell it to ourselves first then external markets. Prices will go up but we won't run out of supply unlike most of the rest of the planet. Still bad for the economy, but its catastrophic for Europe Asia and parts of Africa. Part of why I wasn't that worried about Oil as part of the economy, but instead about inflation and more importantly the amount of lives lost if this continues. Economically we will go into a deep recession with inflation. But we won't be in as bad of shape as countries running out of fuel. The only saving grace is that this is happening now instead of October.
1
EducationalCicada10 hr ago
+1
Wait, why would Exxon and friends sell oil to Americans at a d******* when they can sell it to desperate Asians for a huge profit?
1
Wermys9 hr ago
+1
Because transporting oil of finished oil products is still costly. It is always preferrable to sell locally as long as the profit margin and cost of shipping is high enough. And Trump can and will use laws from the 1970's if necessary to keep gas and oil at home. He would rather sell it. But if it came down to us or them. It will be us every single time. But that is only in a scenario where there isn't enough oil around. Lookup Export Administration Act. It basically gives the president the authority to stop exporting finished oil products. And we are not allowed to export raw crude either. It is against the law. That wouldn't be used unless there was no other option. But it is something that can be done in the type of scenario we are in now.
As I said, economically we are significantly better off then the rest of the world. Just means we have air bags and seat belts crashing into a wall at 40 MPH. We will survive. But the rest of the world doesn't have our safety net.
1
PictureWonderful709115 hr ago
+4
But rich people can make lots of money. You think Trump cares about the economy? He's trying to make himself and his oil buddies as much cash as possible
4
Ready-Firefighter75617 hr ago
+6
eventually the lack of oil out of the persian gulf is gonna make it not chill anymore
6
rabidstoat18 hr ago
+4
Trump hasn't tweeted in 11 hours. I don't think he's golfing either. Maybe he has realized that he needs to do more than shit post about the war on Truth Social, as Commander in Chief.
That, or he is frantically trying to figure out how he can possibly spin this mess. Or profit off it.
4
CoyotesOnTheWing18 hr ago
+10
He tweeted four times in the last four minutes. Just reposting shit though.
10
hedokitali17 hr ago
+4
seeing his reposts about election makes me think that bro is finally bored with this iran shit
4
rabidstoat18 hr ago
+12
He must have seen my post and been reminded it was past time to shitpost.
12
Unfair-Homework-190016 hr ago
+2
I can definitely imagine him actually reading Listnook and making sure no one was right about him
2
Loose_Skill664118 hr ago
+2
pretty difficult for Iranians to make trades due to sanctions
2
rabidstoat18 hr ago
+1
Can they get around it with crypto? I don't know how well regulated Kalshi and Polymarket are.
1
andruszko18 hr ago
+4
Iran? The country with over a hundred billion dollars in frozen assets?
You really think they're sending money overseas, for massive bets, which can be immediately frozen and sanctioned?
If it was so easy for them to avoid sanctions, don't you think....you know...they wouldn't have almost four times their annual budget frozen overseas?
4
rabidstoat18 hr ago
+2
You can bet on Kalshi directly with Bitcoin.
On polymarket, you need to transfer Bitcoin to USD coin and then you can bet with it.
I don't know how regulated either market is.
2
Doomergeneration18 hr ago
+7
Apart from half the world is running out of oil related products
7
DillBagner18 hr ago
+2
Unfortunately, I don't think trump actually cares about that as long as he gets what he personally wants.
2
DarkPriestScorpius18 hr ago
+25
> US President Donald Trump held a closed security briefing with Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
> A U.S. intelligence source says preparations are underway for a return to war with Iran if no diplomatic breakthrough is reached by the end of the weekend. Israel is also preparing for renewed fighting in the coming days.
25
itsatumbleweed18 hr ago
+4
I thought the ceasefire was for the 21st. Maybe I lost track though.
4
rabidstoat18 hr ago
+3
Pretty sure the ceasefire has already collapsed. Iran has fired on ships in the strait, Israel has bombed Lebanon, and the US has put up a blockade.
3
Garionreturns218 hr ago
+6
"48 hours until the end of civilization" again?
6
rabidstoat18 hr ago
+4
This is the Dump part of the Pump and Dump market manipulation, right?
4
DoggedStooge18 hr ago
+7
Probably not until mid-week. Seems this twist caught them by a bit of a surprise, so they might not have yet had a chance to exit their longs and go short .
7
rabidstoat18 hr ago
+1
Maybe he will come up with a story to spin Monday before markets open so they can buy their puts before the market tanks.
1
OnlyRise981618 hr ago
+10
At least Heggy will email all the details to random people in a few hours.
10
sean887718 hr ago
+3
Yeah he accidentally added me to the Telegram chat, the only detail he's shared so far is the location of the kegger Kash and him are throwing tonight.
3
OnlyRise981618 hr ago
+5
Always nice to give your co-workers a going away party!
5
dscreations19 hr ago
+32
>The U.S. Navy is preparing in coming days to board Iranian-linked sanctioned crude oil tankers and seize commercial ships within international waters in several areas around the globe, according to U.S. officials, expanding its ongoing naval crackdown beyond the current blockade in the Middle East, the officials told the Wall Street Journal.
I'm sure this is going to go well /s
32
rabidstoat18 hr ago
+1
In several areas around the globe? Where are our carrier strike groups, outside of the Middle East, currently? I've lost track.
1
dscreations17 hr ago
+1
Here's a good resource for that:
https://www.twz.com/sea/carrier-tracker-as-of-april-12-2026
1
asetniop19 hr ago
+10
[Yeah. We rob now.](https://frinkiac.com/video/S13E02/38hMF_QPH7xYxkZyW8VijNtmG04=.gif)
10
itsatumbleweed19 hr ago
+6
Anyone have piracy on their war bingo cards?
6
OnlyRise981619 hr ago
+13
I always leave a space open for the Jolly Roger!
13
Amazing_Athlete_226517 hr ago
+5
I like the cut of your jib.
5
Shotinthelight2619 hr ago
+6
SoF is very good at this
6
TheRC13519 hr ago
+8
So preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn't stop to think whether or not they should.
8
OnlyRise981619 hr ago
+3
"Strife uhhhhh finds a way."
3
dscreations19 hr ago
+6
Not so much about the interdictions themselves, but the fallout from them
6
McortezLSU21 hr ago
-11
Im starting to think Irans government is fragmented so hard, it created offshoot pirate factions that demand a toll from ships coming through, otherwise i cant really explain whats goin on.
Other then Iran and the Trump regime coordinating these things to make CA$H MONEY
-11
jammerlappen20 hr ago
+51
Couldn't it all be explained with very simple cause and action:
Ceasefire declared
Iran opens strait because of ceasefire
Israel continues attacking Lebanon
Iran closes strait because of no ceasefire
US blockades Iran because of closed strait
Ceasefire declared between Israel and Lebanon
Iran announces strait open because of ceasefire
US announces blockade remains in spite of opening of the strait
Iran announces strait closed because of remaining blockade
51
Nutmeg9218 hr ago
+2
Or maybe
Ceasefire declared
Iran claims the Strait is open
The IRGC keeps harassing ships
Iran makes ex post a justification to keep it closed
And so on
2
itsatumbleweed19 hr ago
+9
This is completely correct
9
stayfrosty19 hr ago
+8
But that's not what happened though. Iran never ever agreed to reopen the strait without conditions. Not ever. If that was part of the deal, they never upheld it. That's why there was a blockade in the first place. They still have never agreed to reopen to strait completely even if there is no blockade.
8
jammerlappen19 hr ago
+5
Obviously there were disagreements over the conditions of the ceasefire(s) from the start.
What I wrote is just a simple explanation of Irans actions regarding the strait, which can only be based on Irans view of the situation.
> That's why there was a blockade in the first place.
The blockade was put in place while he strait was closed, I think it's more accurate to say that was the reason for the blockade.
5
Nutmeg9219 hr ago
+2
If they never intended to open it why would they close it in reaction to other events?
2
4398739417520 hr ago
+5
Yes, Occam's razor. There are certain people who will twist themselves in knots trying to come up with an explanation that doesn't make a certain someone look stupid or corrupt.
5
Far_Addition121020 hr ago
+2
I bet there are about 50 boats running alongside all these ships demanding a toll. They might as well have a go at blagging them.
2
andruszko20 hr ago
+4
No.
-Araghchi announced strait open.
-Within minutes, state media berated him and IRGC is like "lol no f*** that".
-within half hour, trump announced blockade continues.
Now, today, the IRGC Navy came out and told ships to basically ignore all instructions except for their own. This includes instructions from the Iran government.
If this isn't clear enough for people here, I don't know what is. Iran is not unified, the IRGC will likely not agree to any negotiation results. There's significant rifts among Iranian leadership.
4
jammerlappen20 hr ago
+8
> Within minutes, state media berated him and IRGC is like "lol no f*** that".
Their statement could easily be read as "yes, and this is how it works"
> Now, today, the IRGC Navy came out and told ships to basically ignore all instructions except for their own. ~~This includes instructions from the Iran government.~~
Explicitely it states "don't listen to Trump", not "don't listen to the Iran government". There is nothing in it that suggests the instructions from IRGC Navy are not aligned with the Iran government.
I think it's not clear at all and you could be reading stuff into it that isn't there.
8
KaidenUmara21 hr ago
+11
I dont think either side has a "master plan" at this point. It feels to me like everyone is causing chaos with the hopes that it will cause an opportunity to present itself which will help their side come out on top.
11
DillBagner21 hr ago
+6
Neither would surprise me
6
itsatumbleweed21 hr ago
+9
It seems like the government is amenable to talk but the IRGC sees that they have Trump over a barrel with economic warfare and are looking for surrender, and they are willing to take another round of war to do it.
They have been bracing for this as a possibility for half a century
9
McortezLSU20 hr ago
-4
Thats the thing, the US behavior is for all intend and purposes surrender. The regime survives, there is no invasion, Israel's and the US's softpower have cratered into an abyss and their credibility as forces of stability is in shambles. Plus they get friggin 20B dollars. Like how hard can you want to win given that you lost from a material point of view. Right now the entire world blames trump for this shitfest, thats not something thats going to continue for much longer. They can only lose now, so thats why i think its some scam/ market manipulations kinda pact between the US and Iran, because nothing here makes sense.
-4
soldiernerd18 hr ago
I uh, don’t agree with any of that lol
0
Stenthal20 hr ago
-1
And they get control of the Strait for the foreseeable future. Even if they open the Strait right now and agree to everything else Trump is asking for, that won't change.
-1
[deleted]21 hr ago
-3
[deleted]
-3
_egirlisto_21 hr ago
+6
The two what?
6
JayR_9722 hr ago
+29
My main worry is the longer this drags on the worse the resulting global financial crisis is gonna be
29
DataDude0020 hr ago
+29
It takes around 5-6 weeks for oil to transit from the Strait to various locations around the world. We haven't even seen the impact of the oil shortage yet, just the hypothesis of it.
The next few weeks are going to be really rough as reality sets in (I also have no idea why the stock market is on a bull run or oil prices are sliding down in the face of this...)
29
work4work4work4work419 hr ago
+14
> The next few weeks are going to be really rough as reality sets in (I also have no idea why the stock market is on a bull run or oil prices are sliding down in the face of this...)
They've massively convinced retail investors to participate in markets they don't actually understand as speculative investors turned bag holders. You've got people trading oil futures that don't know what backwardation or VIX curves are, or why things like negative Gamma environments are going to crush them with cascading sell-offs.
14
defaultedebt20 hr ago
-8
> (I also have no idea why the stock market is on a bull run or oil prices are sliding down in the face of this...)
Because experts with access to far more information that we have, determined the prices are fair value. The sentiment is clear on both sides now - there is the political will for a ceasefire, end to blockades and free passage in the strait.
Whether this happens in 1 week or 10 weeks matters less than the fact it's actually on the table now.
-8
JustAnotherNut20 hr ago
+20
> Because experts with access to far more information that we have, determined the prices are fair value.
Yeah... No.
The idea that markets are rational is a myth. As is the idea that there is an elite group of people who know exactly what is going on. The problem with both is that the world is inherently unpredictable due to sheer randomness.
20
defaultedebt20 hr ago
-3
Rational does not mean fair value. A market can be irrational but (mostly) fairly valued. There are variables that exist which make "true" fair value effectively mathematically impossible, but they reach close to it and are mostly efficient in determining price.
-3
JattaPake20 hr ago
+14
This is not true at all. Experts are baffled.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/business/energy-environment/iran-oil-prices.html
14
defaultedebt20 hr ago
-6
Yes it is. Experts are not baffled.
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2026#overview
-6
JattaPake20 hr ago
+7
That report literally says the opposite of your comment.
7
defaultedebt20 hr ago
-8
No, it doesn't. Yours, however, does.
Since your reading comprehension is poor, I'll spell it out:
>The disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz led to pronounced physical tightness, pushing
crude market structures into extreme backwardation. Disruptions were staggered across different
markets, with Asia and Dubai prices hit first before Brent and WTI were buoyed by Atlantic Basin
tightness by end-March. The relationship between physical North Sea Dated and ICE Brent futures
– a differential that normally trades within a narrow band – experienced the largest divergence on
record. The Dated-to-Brent spread averaged $4.24/bbl in March, up $2.52/bbl m-o-m, before surging
to just over $33/bbl in early April. At the same time, the North Sea Dated M1-M3 spread widened by
$9.02/bbl m-o-m to average $10.26/bbl, reaching a peak of $22/bbl on 31 March. **This dislocation
reflects a fundamental difference between the two pricing systems.** North Sea Dated is anchored to
the immediate availability of physical cargoes, whereas ICE Brent futures are liquid financial
instruments for which there is no scarcity and whose pricing reflects broad fundamentals across the
forward curve. **When physical supply is severely curtailed, prompt physical prices can detach sharply
from forward paper markets.**
There you go. They explained it, all for you! They quite literally defined why the prices are so detached.
-8
JattaPake20 hr ago
+8
Reread your first comment. Nowhere does it say we are close to a ceasefire. All your quote says is prices can disconnect. The NYT article says that this disconnect is unprecedented. Experts do not know why this disconnect is so large for such a long period of time.
8
defaultedebt19 hr ago
-4
The experts literally explained it for you. Whether we are close or not isn't the relevant issue, the fact it's now an option when it once was not, is the issue.
Experts explained for you, in clear terms, why the disconnect is occurring. They have citations for this too, if you so wish to examine the legitimacy of their explanation.
-4
twotoonies20 hr ago
+12
My main worry is the longer this drags on the worse the resulting human casualties is going to be.
12
Abbx11 hr ago
+1
You should be more worried about the regime dragging on then. Their existence creates human casualties.
1
itsatumbleweed20 hr ago
+10
It's already going to be historically bad, we are talking about how many months to years. I personally think the Republicans that are hoping for relief by '26 should instead be worried about whether or not it's better by '28.
The financial impacts are going to be at least as bad as COVID.
10
DozingUnderTheSun22 hr ago
+20
Not to mention the incoming humanitarian crisis from fuel and fertilizer shortages, and the longer this goes on the worse it will get, without a single rational-minded politician set on de-escalating in sight.
20
itsatumbleweed20 hr ago
+5
That doesn't include the humanitarian crisis that's inbound if hostilities pick back up and regional desalination plants get hit. That's going to be catastrophic.
5
DozingUnderTheSun19 hr ago
+4
I’m worried because I think it’s apparent that some factions in Iran would prefer war and an increase in hostilities because this is their opportunity to inflict pain on Americans and allies. It’s such a clusterfuck of a situation.
4
Wurm4221 hr ago
+21
The fertilizer shortage, and the food shortage that will result from it, is already baked in.
Too much gas infrastructure has been destroyed, particularly in Qatar. Even if the war ended tomorrow, it's no longer possible for the fertilizer supply to "catch up" in time for the 2026 Northern hemisphere growing season.
I'm generalizing and condensing here, but crops that need fertilizer need it at specific points in their life cycle. If they don't get fertilizer in spring (now), getting extra fertilizer in July won't make up for the missed fertilizer earlier. And many crops are getting a different nutrient blend at different times of the year.
Besides, I'm seeing estimates of 18-24 months to restore fertilizer production to what it was before the war.
And hell, it wasn't looking like this was going to be a good crop year, even before the war. So many key agricultural regions started the crop year in drought conditions. [Here's a map of soil moisture in February.](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/sotc/global-drought/2026/01/nasa-grace-soil-moisture-202601.png) It's from [this NOAA site](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global-drought/202601), in case the hotlink doesn't work. Here's a [nifty interactive map](https://globaldroughtmap.com/), but the data only goes up to January.
In the Northern Hemisphere, the United States, Canada, Central and Eastern Europe, southwest Russia, the Levant and big chunks of China were all terribly dry at the end of winter, when moisture *should* be accumulating in soil, aquifers, and snowpacks, to supply humans and fields through the warmer months.
A lot of the Southern Hemisphere was dry then too, but it's different because February is the end of summer there.
We will have famines this fall and winter. Even in rich countries, food will get a lot more expensive.
21
Zealot_of_Law18 hr ago
+2
Us Americans shouldn't face much of a shortage, but prices will definitely climb. That being said a bottle of fish emulsion jumped 6 dollars this year about a 50% increase.
If you are American and garden like me. Rotate beans after you pull your winter crops and chickpeas after you pull your summer crops. To add nitrogen back to soil. Also you get to harvest the beans and chickpeas.
Also if you are really concerned about food security, a 50lb bag of rice at your local restaurant supply store should run ~$25-40 or approximately 21c to 35c a meal. It would fill about 1 1/2 5 gallon buckets.
Rest of the world will face a immigration and refugee crisis again.
2
Uncommented-Code21 hr ago
+11
To add onto all of that, we're also looking at a relatively strong el niño situation coming up soon.
As per University of Columbia:
>As of mid-March 2026, the equatorial Pacific is transitioning from declining La Niña conditions toward ENSO-neutral. The latest CCSR/IRI ENSO plume forecast favors ENSO-neutral conditions at approximately 90% for March–May 2026, with a slim 9% chance of El Niño development. ENSO-neutral remains the dominant category during Apr-Jun (53%), but with El Niño probabilities increasing rapidly (47%). Starting in May-July, El Niño probabilities become higher than ENSO-neutral and remain in the range of 72% to 80%, with ENSO-neutral the second most likely outcome.
The Food and Agricultural Organisation has also already warned of a potential 'Global Agrifood Catastrophe'. Should the strait remain blocked, and should we see an el niño amerge:
>The risks today are notably greater than in 2022, and conditions are present for a “perfect storm” if the current situation is also affected by a strong El Niño rivaling or exceeding the pandemic crisis.
... we will see severe impacts.
11
asetniop20 hr ago
+6
I'm convinced that we're due for a particularly devastating hurricane season. Last year was mild enough that folks won't take things seriously enough this year.
6
Wurm4220 hr ago
+7
Yeah, I feel this too. The US was hella lucky that there were no major hurricanes last year, after NOAA and FEMA were gutted in the spring. It feels like the US is karmically due to get a bad hurricane in 2026.
But like the earlier reply said, there's an El Nino now, and those tend to cool the Caribbean and reduce hurricane activity.
Now, the baseline temperature of the Caribbean in August and September is a lot higher than it was 15 years ago; it may be that El Nino doesn't make as much of a difference now.
But yes, if you live in a hurricane zone, prepare well, because the official response will be slow and incompetent.
177 Comments