/r/WorldNews Live Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Day 1496, Part 1 (Thread #1643)

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Looks like Russia lost an An-26 aircraft over Russian-occupied Crimea. Russian defense ministry reported it lost contact with the aircraft and has no idea what happened to passengers and crew. They say the aircraft was not shot down. https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3miezjkvwak27 Russia is losing this war.

The deficit on the Russian budget dashboard site stands at 7.009 trillion. Last year on the same date it was at 5.039 trillion. So it's 31% worse than last year (official inflation is 5.9%). Last years numbers were bad, this years numbers are way worse. The increased tax revenue from the recent oil price hike has not come in yet. This makes the burning oil export infrastructure so good to see. Doubling the price does less for them if the export capacity is halved.

Ust-Luga was attacked again last night (for the fifth time in 10 days). https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-drones-damage-russias-ust-luga-port-again-governor-says-2026-03-31/ From the article: >Ukrainian President ⁠Volodymyr Zelenskiy ​said on Monday that some of Ukraine's allies ​had sent Kyiv "signals" about the possibility of scaling back its long-range strikes on Russia's oil sector as ​global energy prices have surged. I sure hope Ukraine ignores these "signals". These attacks are working.

From Stanimir Dobrev Russian oil major Surgutneftegas reported a 251 billion ruble loss for 2025 under the Russian Accounting Standard vs a 923,2 billion ruble profit in 2024. This is the worst loss in the company's modern history. The most interesting point of data from this article is that last week Russian oil exports were down 1,75 million barrels a day to 2,32 million barrels a day or down 43%. This was partially by 1/3rd reduction of Kozmino loading but mostly due to UA sanctions on Baltic ports. [https://bsky.app/profile/delfoo.bsky.social/post/3miefufzaco27](https://bsky.app/profile/delfoo.bsky.social/post/3miefufzaco27) [https://bsky.app/profile/delfoo.bsky.social/post/3miegbkcahw27](https://bsky.app/profile/delfoo.bsky.social/post/3miegbkcahw27)

FB reports Su-34 down with at least 1 member of crew dead https://xcancel.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2039036648818659497?s=46&t=atIpeQGVIhaOOydeLGsHZw Edit: Pilot died, Navigator is unclear. https://xcancel.com/marcinrogowsk14/status/2039039665588535326?s=46&t=atIpeQGVIhaOOydeLGsHZw

>“I’m always at your service”: leaked calls between the foreign ministers of Russia and Hungary. Recordings of conversations between Russian FM Sergey Lavrov and Hungarian FM Péter Szijjártó suggest the Hungarian minister was willing to advance Moscow’s interests within the EU. [https://bsky.app/profile/joncooper-us.bsky.social/post/3mie4jhy37k2k](https://bsky.app/profile/joncooper-us.bsky.social/post/3mie4jhy37k2k) >Kremlin hotline: Hungary colluded with Russia to delist sanctioned oligarchs, companies and banks [https://archive.is/XG6gH](https://archive.is/XG6gH)

nice! >The largest oil refinery in European Russia has been shut down for a month due to a drone strike. [https://archive.is/zfGYQ](https://archive.is/zfGYQ)

>A massive explosion occurred in the oil refinery of Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, currently Russia. The oil refinery produces almost 9 million tons in oil products, annually. [https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3mie43x3pt22t](https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3mie43x3pt22t) >The explosion in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, currently Russia, was powerful enough to partially rip off the front of the surrounding buildings. [https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3mie6h3acls2o](https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3mie6h3acls2o)

> 1\ Russia CBR Repo was 4.22tr rub today, for 1 week. Increase from 4.09tr rub last week. I think this is the second biggest ever. > Repo=temporary money creation. All else equal, wouldn't this suggest big liquidity issues inside Russia? There's one positive for Russia's budget here... > 2\ the CBR gets paid interest for these repos. If they keep harvesting 15% on 4tr rub, that's a revenue rate of 600bn rub/year. > If the CBR makes a profit it's supposed to remit some to the federal budget. This could feed Russia's war. https://bsky.app/profile/leoskyview.bsky.social/post/3miel76aans2u

> The most interesting point of data from this article is that last week Russian oil exports were down 1,75 million barrels a day to 2,32 million barrels a day or down 43%. This was partially by 1/3rd reduction of Kozmino loading but mostly due to UA sanctions on Baltic ports. The duration of this cut is HUGE. It'd be really helpful if Ukraine can keep the ports down for weeks. https://bsky.app/profile/delfoo.bsky.social/post/3miegbkcahw27

**The estimated total russian war losses from 24.02.22 to 31.03.26 inclusive are as follows****:** * personnel - approximately 1 297 670 (+970) * tanks ‒ 11 826 (+2); * armored fighting vehicles ‒ 24 324 (+7); * special equipment ‒ 4 105; * vehicles and fuel tanks ‒ 86 359 (+199). * artillery systems ‒ 39 110 (+61); * MLRS ‒ 1 709 (+1); * air defense assets ‒ 1 338 (+1). * aircraft ‒ 435; * helicopters ‒ 350; * UAVs (operational-tactical level) ‒ 208 827 (+2 296); * cruise missiles ‒ 4 491. * warships and boats ‒ 33; * submarines ‒ 2. Source [https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/total-russian-combat-losses-in-ukraine-as-of-march-31-2026](https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/total-russian-combat-losses-in-ukraine-as-of-march-31-2026) Russia grows weaker every day. Slava Ukraini!

> Russian oil major Surgutneftegas reported a 251 billion ruble loss for 2025 under the Russian Accounting Standard vs a 923,2 billion ruble profit in ~~2025~~2024. This is the worst loss in the company's modern history. Accounting is weird, profit and loss can come from companies revaluing things, rather than real changes in the operating business and cashflows. But it's promising. Russia has a special tax on oil&gas profits that should be due about now, so the effect will turn up in Russia's war budget. https://bsky.app/profile/delfoo.bsky.social/post/3miefufzaco27

some headlines from the hellscape that is russia: >"There's nothing to pay salaries with." Russians predicted a wave of mass layoffs. [https://archive.is/BswjV](https://archive.is/BswjV) >One of Russia's largest metallurgical plants has suspended part of its production due to falling demand. [https://archive.is/tUBds](https://archive.is/tUBds) >"Consumers are short of cash." Russian online retail growth hits its lowest in 8 years. [https://archive.is/CwQUg](https://archive.is/CwQUg) >Demand for salespeople and couriers has plummeted in Russia. [https://archive.is/0dk5R](https://archive.is/0dk5R) >Russian oil exports plummet by 43% after Ukrainian strikes on Baltic ports. [https://archive.is/1HcYx](https://archive.is/1HcYx)

> The U.S. Department of the Treasury stated that today they are announcing the lifting of restrictions on container ships flying the Russian flag. More help for Russia. https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3mieifvqrls24 EDIT: u/anachronistic_circus dug into the story but their reply got removed. It's limited help right now: > The United States has lifted sanctions against three container ships flying the Russian flag. ... > The United States has lifted sanctions on the container ships FESCO MONERON and FESCO MAGADAN, as well as the cargo ship SV.NIKOLAY. All of these vessels fly the Russian flag and were removed from the sanctions list without further explanation.

> Russia extended the ban on the export of liquid, granulated, and lump sulfur until June 30. This is a measure to stabilize the domestic market and more importantly the fertilizer market in Russia. They have a shortage due to Ukrainian strikes on gas processing plants. In 2022 it looks like sulphur was ~$250m/year worth of exports. https://bsky.app/profile/delfoo.bsky.social/post/3mie7iwbkt627

> The US have requested that Poland transfers a Patriot battery to the Middle East. Polish Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz responded: > “Our Patriot batteries are used to protect Polish skies and NATO’s eastern flank (…). We have no plans to relocate them anywhere.” Based on current messaging, it looks like the republicans are manoeuvring to excuse their betrayal of NATO to me. https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3mieabjpisk2o

> CODE 9.2 475th Separate Assault Brigade has destroyed a Russian Buk 2 missile system, worth about $25 million! > This is very significant because these air defense systems are usually located up to 100 km from the frontlines, so it's hard for assault brigades to hit them. That's a hit. Not clear to me whether it's a new one or proof of an older claim. And I don't have the knowledge to work out if it was active. https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3miec6uapi227

> Ukraine has identified 27,407 foreign nationals fighting for Russia in its war against Ukraine as of March 30, up from more than 18,000 in November, with Moscow recruiting them from at least 135 countries, according to the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War. This appears to be a minimum count and it's bad news. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-recruited-nearly-10-000-more-foreign-fighters-in-4-months-ukraine-says/

There’s a refinery in Tatarstan on fire after a major explosion. Weirdly enough, it’s unclear if it’s drone-related or just an accident as there wasn’t any alarms going off prior to it. https://xcancel.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2038936920219160892?s=46&t=atIpeQGVIhaOOydeLGsHZw Edit: It’s at the chemical plant and was apparently a big enough explosion that it semi-ripped parts of the fronts of surrounding buildings off

> ‘I Am Always at Your Disposal’ – Hungary's Szijjártó Heard Promising Russia’s Lavrov to Delist Sanctioned Oligarchs https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72933

One thing I stumbled upon in todays ISW update: > Ukraine’s operational and strategic ability to inflict mounting costs on Russia is generating increasing anxiety in the Russian ultranationalist information space. A prominent Russian ultranationalist military and political commentator claimed that Western economic potential is “orders of magnitude” larger than Russia’s and is becoming militarily evident as “Western-backed” Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia have increasingly involved hundreds of drones.[1] The commentator claimed that the size of such strikes will only increase, and that Russia cannot produce enough interceptor missiles to compete with Western economic potential and is thus “doomed to defeat” and forced to immediately “solve the problem of ending the war.” The commentator claimed that Russia must either agree to a “shameful peace” or decisively defeat Ukraine through a strategic offensive, but that the Russian leadership is not politically ready to conduct such an offensive, and is therefore already working toward a “shameful peace.” So Russia is only NOW figuring out that the economic potential of west, even without USA, is still orders of magnitude larger than russias? Well. I suppose they DID live in a dream world where they were much stronger than Europe. This seems like a true surprised pickachu-face moment for Russia. Or leopards-ate-my-face. Take your pick but Russia seems to wake up to a horrible realisation that most of us have known for years/always known.

Leaving aside that higher oil prices obviously benefit Russia, the war with Iran could still turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Ukraine as it opens the possibility of long-term financial support from the Gulf States via defence cooperations. Given that Trump openely muses of leaving the mess he created for them to deal with on their own they are probably very eager to diversify away from their reliance on America.

[Netflix co-founder invests in Ukrainian defense industry:](https://forbes.ua/news/spivzasnovnik-netflix-investue-v-ukrainskiy-opk-30032026-37578) > Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings has joined the UA1 investment fund to support the Ukrainian defense industry. This was stated by the presidential adviser on strategic issues Alexander Kamyshin in an interview with *Forbes Ukraine*. > "We expect that this year more than $1 billion of investments will be attracted to the Ukrainian defense industry," he added. > As of October 2025, the fund raised $18 million. It is focused on defense technologies, artificial intelligence, electronic warfare, unmanned systems, robotics, cybersecurity.

It seems that the recent successful drone strikes in the Petersburg region by Ukraine could be a result of drones taking some new path closer to the border of the Baltic states and catching the russians off guard. Perhaps due to less dense air defenses along that route. As evident by some of the drones crashing in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia each in recent days, likely due to electronic warfare of some kind. People here aren't particularly upset about it at the moment. But we're lucky the incidents haven't resulted in any casualties or things would turn sour. Especially in terms of fuel for the less savoury local political elements. https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2878122/lithuania-coordinating-with-ukraine-after-drone-crash-near-varena-minister-says https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2878041/drones-enter-latvia-estonia-from-russia-crash-near-the-border https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2883324/ukraine-expresses-regret-after-drones-crash-in-baltic-states-lithuania-says

Russian forces held a flag raising ceremony in Kivsharivka, Kharkiv Region after claiming to occupy the city. Here is a photo of the end of event. 😂 [https://militarnyi.com/en/news/43rd-brigade-captures-russian-soldiers-trying-to-raise-flag-in-kivsharivka-kharkiv-region/](https://militarnyi.com/en/news/43rd-brigade-captures-russian-soldiers-trying-to-raise-flag-in-kivsharivka-kharkiv-region/)

Russia has lost 970 soldiers killed and wounded over the past day, bringing its total number of personnel losses to 1,297,670. **Source:** [Russian losses over past day: 970 soldiers killed and wounded | Ukrainska Pravda](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/03/31/8027928/) **Details:** The total combat losses of the Russian forces between 24 February 2022 and 31 March 2026 are estimated to be as follows \[figures in parentheses represent the latest losses – ed.\]: * approximately 1,297,670 **(+970)** military personnel * 11,826 **(+2)** tanks * 24,324 **(+7)** armoured combat vehicles * 39,110 **(+61)** artillery systems * 1,709 **(+1)** multiple-launch rocket systems * 1,338 **(+1)** air defence systems * 435 (+0) fixed-wing aircraft * 350 (+0) helicopters * 208,827 **(+2,296)** operational-tactical UAVs * 4,491 (+0) cruise missiles * 33 (+0) ships/boats * 2 (+0) submarines * 86,359 **(+199)** vehicles and fuel tankers * 4,105 (+0) special vehicles and other equipment. The information is being confirmed.

Mood isn't good in the Russian army > Unfortunately, they’re stronger > The current Supreme Commander-in-Chief is already being viewed by the elites as a toxic figure [Top Russian Milblogger Praises Ukraine Army, Predicts Kremlin Spring Offensive Will Fail](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72871) (the last quote about Ukraine about to launch a counter-offensive with one million men is absolutely not credible, though)

F*** putin 

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