Sanctioned tanker turns back to Strait of Hormuz, day after Gulf exit

That was a Chinese ship who just got turned back. Trump is flailing strategically but the blockade is real.

This isn't true at all. Iran will reach capacity for their storage a little over a week from now. If their wells are shut down and sit without any action for a couple more weeks then water coning can happen and make the oil useless or at least economically impossible to recover. This is a huge deal for them that they can't wait out. And it isn't a short term issue. Reaching that point would be devastating for a long time for their production capabilities, which is their primary source of export revenue. They would literally have to pay for the entire process of drilling all new wells all the way to completion of those wells while also not producing much if anything during that long timeframe.

Iran has about 10 days or something like that until their oil holding facilities are 100% full, and then they have to shut everything down to wait.

China owns 750 billion of US debt. The United States owns 1.2 trillion in Chinese debt. As well as an additional trillion from pre CCP China. The real reason the major powers don't screw with eachother all that much is because the economies are heavily intertwined. The spice must flow. Between the US and China is nearly 50% of global industrial capabilities and some insane amount of capital I'm guessing about 50%. The US is in a position because they can just blow everything up but it will negatively effect the worldwide economy. From what I understand most Americans and Europeans are generally in favor of Iran not being under theocratic rule and having a stranglehold on the region but don't like Trump or how is handling everything. Most of Europe cares more about Ukraine, and an oddly large amount of people care about Mexico and Cuba.

The strait is only closed by the US to ships using Iranian ports or paying Iranian tolls btw

Yes, it does appear obvious to me in hindsight now, haha It's a better stepping stone than straight to boots on the ground on the escalation ladder

It'll be fine. The marines can just shoot down the drones and can spread out to mitigate the splash damage from rockets. It worked in Starcraft.

It's been so weird to me to see people saying that a reciprocal blockade is stupid; from the very beginning this was the smartest option. Allowing Iranian oil out while no one else's could get through incentivises Iran to maintain the blockade by increasing the price they get and providing them with cash to continue paying their soldiers. The fact that the US doesn't have any generals left clever enough to put this together sooner is crazy.

From what I've heard taking Kharg Island makes no sense but a strategically sabotaging Kharg Island can make sense. You want to rend it innoperable for the time being but not prevent it from becoming operable post war. Counterblockading does the same thing mostly without the risk boots temporarily on the ground would bring but it has it's own risks if a Chinese ship decided to really test how far the US is willing to go.

Should have been done from day one. Iran would have ran out of storage and folded weeks ago.

They could also just hit the pipe going to the island cutting off the island all together.

Any conflict only prolongs strait closure **US Presidents CANNOT make a deal with Iran even if they wanted one** Iran as a minimal demand wants US sanctions lifted permanently However legally US Presidents can only *temporarily waive* sanctions not permanently lift them Only Congress can lift Iran economic sanctions But thanks to the influence of AIPAC and the pro-Israeli lobbyists in Congress (who lobbied for the santions on Iran) there is zero chance of Congress lifting Iran sanctions. Israel wants Iran and the US in conflict not making deals with each other. And this is also why the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran failed from the very start under Obama long before Trump tore up the deal: because Congress never lifted the santions needed to implement it: "if the situation is not appreciably better soon, it will be impossible for the US and its partners to argue credibly that they are not in breach of the JCPOA..." https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03068374.2016.1225896 And the Iranians had started to complain too: https://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/iran-nuclear-deal-us-222029 **So the US has legally prevented itself from making a deal with Iran** [Yes Trump can pretend to make a deal on his own with Iran that lifts sanctions while ignoring Congress, but in that case the foreign banks and corporations that face the risk of multimillion dollar fines for sanctions breaches imposed by OFAC (that answers to Congress not Presidents) plus Iran would also not accept such a fake deal. Obama and Kerry also tried to rally foreign companies to do business with Iran under the JCPOA despite continued sanctions but those companies ignored them due to continued risk of sanctions-related fines: John Kerry's Awkward Push For Investment In Iran - NPR https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/05/25/479462791/john-kerrys-awkward-push-for-investment-in-iran

It's not going to work long-term. It only works if the US Navy is willing to fire upon a civilian vessel (which they won't.). Tankers aren't taking the risk in the short-run because a settlement might happen but eventually they'll all just starting moving in / moving out and daring the US Navy to kill innocent people.

Bec Trump would want his own Guatanamo Bay It's a great idea - would setup the US strategically in the Gulf for the next 50 years - if only we didn't have bozos running the war

I’m betting there’s a big “don’t order me to do this because I won’t” vibe in the marine corps right now.

*Super tankers* carry oil at a volume no overland system can hope to match. And any static rail lines and trains are easy targets.

So can the US. What is Iran gonna do, blockade all oil trade from US ports? Iran will need to figure out their next move

Imagine thinking that isn’t going to get bombed if this drags on

That rail line would get bombed most likely. Probably in the works.

Hahaha

*East and mainland SE Asia, China isn’t the only one majorly affected by this. Not to mention they still have the Russian oil unlike Japan, SK, PH etc. which would absolutely cripple them if this continues

They can also have their partners block/mine other straits, like Bab al-Mandab.

Taiwan starves first though. 

Iran only consist of 15% of China's oil imports. They can subsidize that from their reserves and increase purchases from the world market.

renewable as never look this good.

I think people way underestimate how quickly GCC nations can create alternative export means. A nation can accomplish a lot with unlimited slave labor and $150+ oil

In the situation you are describing, decentralization strategy might turn out to be a weakness rather than a strength. Someone who unifies a few factions will be able to grab the power quickly.

"There is enough reserves to try to starve the regime out. " The reserves that were released is enough to last 4 months. That was 2 months ago. Did ya'll say this same shit about sanctioning Russian oil 3 years ago?

I can already see Iran fracturing into warlords like Libya and Somalia. Once the generals in charge realize they can act with impunity, there is going to be a civil war bloodbath as different sides fight for control over public resources.

Countries like India will be on the knees far quicker than Iran will yield. Most westerners just cant comprehend how vital the Strait is for countries like India. Its not just petrol, but most of our fertilizer inputs and pretty much 60% of our domestic LPG use comes from the strait. If this continues any longer, India will extremely fucked up.

Great, it can pick its first shipment up when it gets there in 2 months!

This doesn't make sense to me though. The USA mostly exports of light, sweet oil. Those Texas refineries process heavy sour crude but where is that sour crude coming from that those refineries are refining? Surely wherever it's coming from will be vastly insufficient in volume then compared to the demand?

Empty oil tankers are flocking to the gulf of America for oil. It’s unfortunate that Listnook cannot give Trump credit where credit is due. This is an absolute genius move that guarantees a US win and a China loss.

not to mention India. India imports about 60 percent of its LPG consumption and out of these imports about 90 percent come through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been impacted due to current happenings. This is from Indian govt. LPG is used everywhere in India, from cooking gas in homes (pretty much 80% of urban homes use LPG), Restaurants, Tuktuks and industries. LPG is already being rationed and most restaurants are facing closures with several industries/industry clusters already shutting down. India really cant afford Hormuz closure for any longer without it becoming a civil disaster.

Right. So the US is stealing a card by blocking oil?  That doesn't make any sense.

I think there’s truth to what you’re saying but also not why it took so long to start a blockade. I think they thought it wouldn’t be necessary and Iran would have conceded by now. That hasn’t been the case so they’re escalating tactics to create leverage.

It doesn't even harm the US in the short term, they're actually benefiting because we now have to buy more oil from the US since the straits are closed, and at a wildly inflated price to boot. This war is basically a market manipulation/oil control move, Iran is only the target because they export such a large amount of oil.

I don't see how [US can benefit long term when our capacity to grow crops is decimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/us-farmers-struggling-to-afford-fertilizer-amid-iran-war.html). You'll have to explain that to me. I dont see how causing oil/fuel prices to skyrocket means the world will become more dependent on those producers.[ If anything its become clear that China stands to win the 21st century at this point seeing as it make was more sense to move to renewables.](https://warontherocks.com/the-iran-war-and-the-energy-lesson-we-failed-to-learn/) Again, I'll let you explain because it doesn't make any sense to me. The petrodollar is being undone in real time and countries are beginning to take out their gold which is what kept the US as the reserve currency. Electing Trump was the biggest self own and will cost the US immensely. We are in the nascent stages of that and it wont be short process.

That's what I'm hoping for, I can charge slow but free at home and even get fast charging for 35 cents and unlike the oil we use for fuel, electricity will get cheaper as we get more green.

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