So the strait is open but not actually open. The other gulf countries won't want this as the permanent solution.
111
fury4201 day ago
+21
Also the American blockade of Iran's ports still seems to be in effect.
21
CircumspectCapybara1 day ago
-11
Iran's cooked (at least under the current regime). All of its shenanigans (blockading the strait, spamming missiles and drones at the gulf states) are great tactical shots, but terrible *strategic* blunders for long-term geopolitical soft and hard power, because the powers that be aren't going to tolerate it long-term, and they're now left with no option besides figuring out a way to neutralize Iran.
The west and friends have woken up (to a fact that was always there) to the fact that the strait (and the gulf states) will never be safe with an unpacified Iran, and so they can never trust Iran further than they can throw them.
There is literally no future where the west or the gulf states and Iran are at long-term peace. You'll have two-week ceasefires that nobody trusts, but no durable peace where actors stop hovering over the red button will ever possible. Iran's grip over the strait and over the gulf states is just too deadly, and they're all too willing to use their newfound powers.
-11
lowercaset1 day ago
+26
>and they're now left with no option besides figuring out a way to neutralize Iran.
I think it is noteworthy that this changes literally nothing for Iran, the US already had that as an explicit goal it was aggressively pursuing.
26
Kaito__14122 days ago
+12
So basically, nothing has changed.
12
giboauja1 day ago
+7
So its not free passage then...
7
Thurak02 days ago
+33
> adding that unfreezing Iranian funds was part of the deal.
1. Start a war so Iran closes the strait, that was open before
2. Bribe Iran to open it again
3. ???
4. Art of the Deal, everyone
33
redditobserverone2 days ago
+12
The dealmaker of the century: unfrozen assets, the $2 million per ship sidehustle that did not exist under any other White House occupant and Iran is the final decision maker.
12
AcrobaticSecretary291 day ago
+3
3. Distract the public so they forget about the Epstein files
3
fury4202 days ago
+16
Ships were literally crossing yesterday and the IRGC did nothing about it.
Like this one, which sailed straight through the strait on it's way to Iraq
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:3224/mmsi:306253000/imo:9208215/vessel:RHN
And this one, which sailed through to the UAE
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:414414/mmsi:354421000/imo:9276767/vessel:SDR_UNIVERSE
16
iamstephen11282 days ago
+25
Iran doesn't have to completely stop the flow of traffic. All they have to do to achieve their intended goal is to threaten and/or hit *enough* ships to stoke fear and drive up cost of insuring ship travel in the area. A ship here or there isn't sufficient evidence of progress in this regard.
25
fury4202 days ago
+10
Indeed, but it's been weeks since they struck any ships.
I can't help but think firing at merchant vessels might be being treated as part of the ceasefire, in which case they effectively can't enforce their blockade threats/conditions without restarting the war.
10
iamstephen11282 days ago
+8
Which is likely one of the reasons for their current agreement and tying it to Israel halting its attacks on Hezbollah. I give Israel until midday Monday at the latest...
And when (not if) things kick back off, Iran doesn't have to hit that many ships to tie things right back up
8
fury4201 day ago
+3
Yeah, the odds of the Lebanon agreement actually fully halting fire seem slim, once again it's a "ceasefire" with lots of conditions that go beyond an order to cease firing, which is a recipe for a mess.
I mean... not only was Hezbollah uninvolved just like prior Israel-Lebanon agreements, but it's also written with exceptions much like prior ceasefires, and historically a lot of reporting seems to downplay or ignore that aspect.
Reporting and dunking on Israel for blowing stuff up is easy, determining if it actually violates the terms of the agreement is hard, especially when it's like the 2006 and 2024 agreements with some terms being an overoptimistic wishlist that Lebanon wasn't in a position to follow through with.
>3 Israel shall preserve its right to take all necessary measures in self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks. This shall not be impeded by the cessation of hostilities. Besides this, it will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military, and other state targets, in the territory of Lebanon by land, air, and sea.
>4 From April 16, 2026, at 17:00 EST, forward, with international support, the Government of Lebanon will take meaningful steps to prevent Hezbollah and all other rogue non-state armed groups in the territory of Lebanon from carrying out any attacks, operations, or hostile activities against Israeli targets.
https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/04/ten-day-cessation-of-hostilities-to-enable-peace-negotiations-between-israel-and-lebanon/
Third or 4th time the charm perhaps?
3
iamstephen11281 day ago
+3
> Israel shall preserve its right to take all necessary measures in self-defense, at any time, against planned, **imminent**, or ongoing attacks.
Lol this is the death of this "agreement" right here. Remember this whole thing kicked off because of the imminent threat of Iran gaining the nuclear weapon its been 2 weeks away from for the past 30 years that we also destroyed/denied access to last year 🤣
3
BoldThrow1 day ago
+1
I predict an attack an hour before the markets open Monday morning
1
Electricengineer1 day ago
+7
Two ships out of what was 140/day is nothing
7
Relative_Cricket85321 day ago
+2
The ships sailing out is the only thing that matters. The whole point of them blocking the strait is to spike oil prices. You can sail the ship in then what?
2
Ultra_Metal2 days ago
+5
The Islamic Republic is lying again, as is tradition.
5
P0Rt1ng4Duty2 days ago
-9
The pentagon is also lying but at least Iran is making credible claims.
-9
Ultra_Metal2 days ago
+14
The Islamic Republic is not credible at all. They lie constantly, just like their ally Putin.
14
Such_Difference_22482 days ago
+7
So does Putin's ally Trump
7
Plus_Entertainer42912 days ago
+10
As does the White House. Every day. You think your sources are the only ones not lying?
10
FishmongerJr2 days ago
+3
You’re correct. But that’s true of the US as well.
Can’t trust any of these assholes.
3
Taxing1 day ago
-2
Credible to idiots like you
-2
snirpie1 day ago
+4
We lost this war, didn't we?
4
BoldThrow1 day ago
+1
You did, yes.
1
QFGTrialByFire1 day ago
+1
Its not open and confirmed by Iran that its closed just a few hours ago:
[https://x.com/mb\_ghalibaf/status/2045264713593114970](https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2045264713593114970)
"The U.S. President made seven claims in one hour, and all seven are false.
They did not win the war with these lies, and they certainly will not get anywhere in negotiations either
With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open"
1
mrgoodnighthairdo2 days ago
+1
Oh so Iran is get pallets full of cash again? I'd bet the farm that whatever agreement comes out of this is gonna essentially be the JCPOA but worse
1
ignatious__reilly2 days ago
+14
When Obama unfroze their assets, the GOP went insane. I’m old enough to remember that shit Storm.
14
DFWPunk1 day ago
+1
They've been posting memes about it for a couple of weeks.
1
epic_taco_time2 days ago
-3
Trump said no money being transferred and the article has nothing to do with cash.
-3
Yasai1012 days ago
+8
Holy shit.. did you hear this guys... Trump said no money is being transferred.. f****** hell... If the man says no then its a no... he could never lie to us..
8
Boredatwork7092 days ago
+3
Theres articles going around saying that Iran gets 20B of their assets unfrozen to hand over their enriched uranium
3
epic_taco_time2 days ago
+2
That's the Iranian demands, not necessarily what ends up happening though.
2
mrgoodnighthairdo2 days ago
+2
Oh Trump said that? Okay, then Iran is definately getting buckets of bitcoin.
2
DangerDarrin1 day ago
+1
Can't wait for Trump to take credit for "Stopping another war" of his own doing
1
Brambleshire1 day ago
-2
For Irans sake I hope to God they don't agree to anything that doesn't have CONCRETE incontrovertible guarantees that the US or Israel will forever leave them alone.
38 Comments