A few weeks ago they were shooting first announcing later
Now they are announcing and announcing and announcing but still no shooting
If they can’t get anything on fire by 4 eastern im bullish
34
Shot-Toe-28846 days ago
+15
It was all too easy for Iran to take advantage of the chaos of war to claim the strait. This is a whole different matter now holding control of a strait in peacetime, without blowing up international civilians.
But if nothing has happened by 4 ET, that doesn't mean anything, because almost no ship is transiting the strait right now. There are a couple of Iranian linked vessels that are testing the blockade right now though, and that is worth following for sure.
I'm watching this ship in particular, an oil tanker that departed Qeshm, Iran this morning.
[ELPIS (IMO 9212400), Oil/Chemical Tanker | Position & specs](https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:6295238/mmsi:620999876/imo:9212400/vessel:ELPIS)
This is a small tanker. No signs of any super tankers taking a stab at it. This particular ship has slowed to a crawl since the blockade took effect though. Once it's beyond the strait, Iran can't really stop it from being intercepted, so we will see if it pushes through anyways.
15
DrPsyz96 days ago
+1
It's a different picture now. They're trying to come out looking like the good guys. So, they'll test the blockade, get the US to act violently, then do it. And they will have warned everyone before hand making them look better than the US. The escalation pathway is to close the other strait. They have cards. They are being very cautious in how they respond during this "ceasefire".
1
Colbert20205 days ago
+3
A tanker can be seized by a coast guard vessel. They're not exactly warships, lol.
3
[deleted]5 days ago
+1
[deleted]
1
StayFit85615 days ago
+1
US maintaining a blockade is not that simple though if, for example, China decides it wants its shipment. What does the US do if China decides to e***** its shipments through the strait? Is the US going to fire on Chinese ships, because that's a whole new world. And if the US doesn't, that's also a whole new world.
1
[deleted]5 days ago
+1
[deleted]
1
StayFit85615 days ago
+1
China won't want to because it forces the hand of the US, and either option isn't incredible. But China gets something like 35% of its oil via the strait of hormuz. The longer they are unable to get shipments, the more of an economic problem it becomes. At a certain point it's not really a question of whether China wants to do it, its a question of which 2 options are worse.
1
[deleted]5 days ago
+1
[deleted]
1
StayFit85615 days ago
+1
Maybe. For what its worth, this is what the Chinese defense minister had to say about it today:
> Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. We have trade & energy agreements with Iran. We will respect & honour them and expect others not to meddle in our affairs," he said. "Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and it is open for us.
1
SunNext75005 days ago
+1
China is benefiting from this immensely. They aren't stopping anything. Why would they?
1
StayFit85615 days ago
+1
China is benefitting from Iran blocking the Strait, but how are they benefitting from the US halting 35% of their oil imports?
1
SunNext75005 days ago
+2
Because China has spent the last decade both stockpiling oil and diversifying their energy generation just for this sort of moment. Additionally their population in general is far better able to weather tough economic times than we in the west are. We won't suffer for the good of the country the way China's citizens will.
Finally against the backdrop of this conflict China has been able to spread both their economic and diplomatic influence as a stable and trustworthy negotiator. They've struck trade deals with countries all over the world and they were the ones who got Iran to accept the cease-fire in the first place.
The end result of this conflict could very well be China rising as the preeminent world power depending on how much influence the US loses, in conjunction with all the other influence that has been lost via Donald Trump.
I mean they're going to have NATO broken apart without having to do anything at all. All because of Donald and the US.
2
Ok-Seaworthiness44885 days ago
Could say they have a strait flush
0
[deleted]6 days ago
-6
[deleted]
-6
_WhatchaDoin_6 days ago
Ok so TACO Tuesday? Trump or Tehran first?
0
Guest_0_5 days ago
-4
Yes for sure Iran is the one who looks weak here. Not the US who just got humiliated at the peace talks and now has a blockade that amounts to "oh you wanna close the strait do you? Fine! We'll close it ourselves!".
Why would they waste time firing missiles when the US is now keeping the strait closed for them? Iran and China can watch as the US bleeds out financially and Trump bleeds out politically.
-4
virtual_adam5 days ago
+5
Well for one you can read the article at the top of the page where Iran says they will bomb other ports because the US has stopped them from selling 9 figures worth of oil per day
It’s 3:34 and my portfolio is at an all time high. Iran is showing they’re done with bombing the gcc
5
Guest_0_5 days ago
-1
You're utterly delusional if you've convinced yourself that this over lol. Jesus.
Iran has 150 million barrels of floating storage outside of the US navys ability to stop. They are far better prepared to weather this than the US is.
Iran has carefully done everything in response to to US aggression. The second the US gets frustrated and decides to continue a hot war after the ceasefire ends you'll missiles start flying again.
-1
virtual_adam5 days ago
+2
I don’t think i understand what you’re saying
During every day of the war until now, Iran has exported 1.84 million barrels
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/what-does-us-naval-blockade-iran-mean-oil-flows-2026-04-13/
Today they exported 0
And that’s the plan for tomorrow
Those are billions in dollars they aren’t selling starting today. I don’t believe this was part of the ceasefire agreement. The US is breaking it openly and proudly
Iran on their part, super trigger happy until now, suddenly isn’t shooting anything at anyone
I see Iran folding live in front of the world. I wrote in the morning I’ll see if Iran shoots anything in the next 8 hours. They haven’t
2
Guest_0_5 days ago
Yea I wonder why they aren't shooting anymore, maybe it has something to do with the ceasefire and the fact that the US stopped bombing them?
And yes they have 150 million barrels on ships right now heading to China.
So whose going to fold first? The nation thats already made Trump the most unpopular President in US history, and JD Vance now the most unpopular VP.
Iran is openly mocking the US right now and even posted a a mathematical expression on social media showing why their blockade of Iran's blockade is going to make gas prices worse for the United States.
0
Colbert20205 days ago
+1
We went from 130-150 ships per day in the strait prior to the war down to like 20-30 in the calmest days of the war.
Now it's zero.
Putting aside our biases towards each actor, we can agree that allowing Iran to profit from their threats to the strait was stupid of the USA, right? Allowing their oil exports, and tolls to be paid? Stopping this is the right move from the PoV of the USA.
1
bakkarj6 days ago
+14
Do it or put the cardboard cutout of dear leader back in storage.
14
boogi3woogie6 days ago
+4
Thanks for the warnings... again?
4
KaibaVsJoey6 days ago
+6
Guess we at the find out out part
6
Wambo746 days ago
+3
Unfortunately it seems Iran is capable of carrying out that threat. Major missile systems may have been destroyed but they apparently have thousands of those c**** drones. Probably hiding them out in civilian garages and such so can't be located and taken out. There's going to be huge development of anti-drone systems after this and the Ukraine wars.
3
Fit_Smile11466 days ago
Can somebody explain to me like I’m five, how can the US block ships from entering when it’s not our land?
0
ForcedEntry4206 days ago
+4
They line up their ships and threaten to sink or board anyone who comes close.
4
Murph-Dog5 days ago
+1
In particular, big ships, easy to intercept and board.
But they could probably just take out propulsion, and hopefully not spill any oil.
1
psyon4 days ago
+1
How can Iran close the strait when it's not theirs?
1
Fit_Smile11464 days ago
+1
“Lissen” I don’t know who territory or body of water it is. I just know America is in North America.
1
Colbert20205 days ago
+1
Okay let me explain:
Iran wants to control the strait by shooting at ships as they pass the choke. But they are letting their own exports go through, or the ones that paid their toll go through. The USA is not letting them because they have a navy to intercept further down the passage.
Saying "the USA is blockading the strait" is not only reductive, it is misinformed.
Traffic in the strait is nonexistent because Iran threatened it. As tensions eased, some tankers go through but they paid a toll to Iran for safety (2million) or they were tankers buying Iranian oil. Most other traffic was not happening, because no one is willing to risk their billion dollar assets in a warzone.
Think about that: Oil prices are higher because Iran threatened the strait, and they are profiting from that from their exports and their tol
So the USA said: "F*** that!" and is intercepting ships bound for Iranian ports. If they are going to other ports and exporting oil other than Iranian oil, they will let them through, AS LONG AS THEY ALSO AREN'T PAYING IRAN'S TOLL.
1
Fit_Smile11465 days ago
+1
Excuse me? Are you serious. So Iran doesn’t “own” that body of water either. They’ve just taken over it? Then how can they charge countries money? I’m learning something. Thank you!
1
Colbert20205 days ago
+3
Iran threatens to shoot boats that pass through and don't pay them. Whether they would or not is hard to say. No ship has passed that hasn't paid that toll or hasn't exported Iranian oil.
3
psyon4 days ago
+1
According to the UN, they can't close the strait or charge tolls. They are doing it because countries have been to afraid to go to war over it in the last couple of decades.
1
44Stryker445 days ago
+1
First, ships sail on water, not land
1
Fit_Smile11465 days ago
+1
You know exactly what I’m referencing. The body of water isn’t ours. Better?!: you didn’t answer the question 🤦🏽♀️
1
Colbert20205 days ago
The Strait of Hormuz is international waters. If you threaten international shipping, the USA even in the most sane of times would make moves to stop it. That's what they're doing.
0
ChadPowers200_5 days ago
-5
Just do bridge and power plant day and get the f*** out of that region. F*** Iran and f*** trumps dumbass
-5
Green_Dream205 days ago
+2
He was bluffing. He would have done it after the talks failed if he was serious.
Trouble is everyone knows he TACOs all the time and it's the only move he can pull as he is too scared for boots on the ground.
This crisis will be a TACO every couple of days until June when the USA will walk away defeated, the international community breathing a sigh of relief.
2
ChadPowers200_5 days ago
+1
I know that’s a meme but he did kill the supreme leader. He killed their leadership. He killer solomani. He killed the other guy w a drone when he was driving in his car. He also bombed their largest bridge.
He is just more of a liar than someone weak imo
1
Dark_World_Blues6 days ago
-1
The ports in the gulf countries has been attacked multiple times by Iran and aren't safe and aren't seeing traffic.
-1
zenbowman5 days ago
Realistically the only offramp here, as horrific as it may sound, is some kind of tollsharing. It's a horrible solution but every other offramp seems worse. Iran will not let go without a toll of some kind, because they do need some kind of income to rebuild after the war. And Trump will need at least some kind of profit sharing agreement to make it worth his while and give him a face saving claim.
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