It's fascinating to me that futures for WTI are trapped in the high 90s and Brent between $100-$110 aside from some short lived exceptions.
I was looking at spot prices and a month ago they were like $140 a barrel, but that information is harder to track down. I have to believe they have only gotten higher, but the futures markets seem to think this is the right regime if the ceasefire is the status quo.
144
Grow_away_4202 days ago
+89
Buyers are forced into a position where they don't know if a social media post or axios leak is going to swing the price 15% overnight and leave them holding the bag. I've heard one economist say they're all bullish, but they just don't want to make a move.
89
BigMax2 days ago
+44
Yeah, it's crazy. Prices have been treating this as if it's all about to end today, and they've been treating it that way for a few months now it seems, which obviously makes no sense.
It's like every day investors day "surely this will all be over *tomorrow*" and they just keep saying that every single day.
44
DickelPick692 days ago
+46
I don’t have data to prove, but I think there is price suppression by the US admin so they don’t look at incompetent and spark fear.
A lot of futures are cash settled and they can use strategic oil reserves to sell against physical futures and provide delivery
46
itsatumbleweed2 days ago
+44
I don't disagree. Our strategic reserves are draining without much explanation as to why, as are the strategic reserves of nearly every country globally. It's likely that futures with later expirey dates will start to go up if those dates are after strategic reserves are projected to run out.
I saw a projection that the US will be out of strategic reserves by mid July, so we may see futures movement for August futures.
44
DickelPick692 days ago
+9
The US approved the release of 172 million barrels over 4 month period. So they’re probably selling against 4 months of futures
9
Leftoverofferings2 days ago
+8
I saw that Cali only had 6 was of either gas or oil left. I'm sure they'll get deliveries from other places, but it'll cost them, then us. Gas going up.....
8
Mortytowngang2 days ago
+8
This is true, but that’s a full California self own. California doesn’t have any pipelines to the rest of the US and had 20% of the gas refinery capacity permanently close this year. Gas will go up in America assuredly but we in CA will feel it more akin to those in Asia / Europe.
8
Leftoverofferings2 days ago
+2
I think there will be a lot of shipping, redirecting and exchanges to keep Cali in gas, but it's at the expense of someone else. And now that fuel is in limited supply, we should see prices at the pump skyrocket. Maybe 2 weeks....
2
azhillbilly1 day ago
+2
Not really. It’s not easy to keep a pipeline in one piece straddling one of the most active fault lines in the world.
And 6 weeks is standard. Next week you will hear the same stat, last week it was the same, last year, again the same.
But the refining capacity loss is definitely not good. It’s expensive in CA, labor, land, and everything else is super expensive and oil companies know that not spending money on refining means they make more money.
2
mikeyj1982 days ago
+1
oil futures are physically settled, come get the oil, no public storage available.
1
turb0_encapsulator2 days ago
+8
meanwhile, the actual price in Sri Lanka is $286 per barrel.
[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-is-trading-below-90-per-barrel-in-the-futures-market-in-sri-lanka-buyers-are-paying-286-164645258.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-is-trading-below-90-per-barrel-in-the-futures-market-in-sri-lanka-buyers-are-paying-286-164645258.html)
8
Romano162 days ago
-9
Trump was anticipating that it would be $200 - $250 a barrel.
-9
asetniop2 days ago
+12
It's really pernicious to frame things as though that child-molesting Hutt actually gamed out likely outcomes in advance. Any claims he made about anticipating oil prices came weeks after the fact.
12
itsatumbleweed2 days ago
+16
His predictions were that he should say a higher number than where they are to make it sound like it's going well.
16
Nate5064112 days ago
+35
Has anyone seen any of these "plans" and what exactly the concessions are from each side? I have not seen anything but arbitrary numbered plans with no details that the orange moron announces like a new investment opportunity, then doesn't like magically before the betting markets and wall street make a fortune in insider trading. This is the whole concepts of a plan two weeks out for ACA on repeat.
35
holyoak2 days ago
+41
Yep, this is not reporting, this is just regurgitating a talking point.
A real news report would focus on exactly these things: what are the points of the plan? what are the areas of disagreement? how do those compare to peace plans that have worked before?
But we get none of that. Just a description of Trump's feelings on the matter. Pathetic.
41
Nate5064112 days ago
+16
That no one is reporting any details for it across the globe on any news outlets is beyond weird, right? Almost like anyone with journalistic integrity cannot verify for sourcing, and those without are just lapping at the pool of propiganda reporting and cannot be bothered. "Calling all reporting on this admin 'Propiganda' from now on!"
16
TiredOfDebates2 days ago
+5
Because the negotiations are NOT public information. This is pretty typical of how it has been done throughout history.
If there's an agreement between the two sides, THEN it'll become public. However, the details of negotiations being worked through are private. This is to prevent "hard-liners" from either side from applying undue pressure to negotiators that could undermine it.
If negotiators are preparing to "give something up to the adversary" in such discussions, and that is public information... then someone from their side will try to "blow up" the peace talks.
5
holyoak2 days ago
+6
So many questions.
Trump makes public demands as a matter of routine. Are you saying he is doing it wrong?
Proposals are not negotiations. They are the starting point of negotiations. Are you saying the news has not published peace proposals?
6
TiredOfDebates2 days ago
+3
Trump's public demands are more for a domestic audience, rather than to "anyone serious." He has a whole "strongman" song and dance going on for his political base of voters that show up for primary elections.
The people that actually take his social media posts seriously are the people that show up for Republican primary elections, which Trump then directs to support (or not support) Republican incumbents in Congress. This gives Trump an enormous amount of leverage over Republicans in Congress.
You'll note that any Republican in Congress that crosses Trump, tends to resign at the end of their term, OR has to fight in a contested primary. This is the entire purpose of Trump's social media shinanigans. Those social media posts are fine tuned to appeal to the extreme fringe that will purely vote for his chosen candidates in primaries.
I keep repeating myself because I don't think I'm explaining this game very well.
3
lonigus1 day ago
+1
The only thing we know for sure is Iran not including anything nuclear in this "plan". Both sides have maximalist demands being fully convinced their side is winning. What it includes is sanctions relief and the end to the US blockade. What is unclear under what rules is the straight suposed to be opened.
Its a powder keg and at the same time a frozen conflict. There is not even a general understanding of set base negotation rules which is suposed to be the easy part and then the months long negotations can start regarding the details.
1
StaticSystemShock2 days ago
Are there even any discussions happening. It seems to me Donald is just having monologues with himself while shorting oil stocks based on shit he says on his stupid social network.
0
MyNameIsRay2 days ago
+4
Iran has been releasing the proposed plans, and providing pretty regular updates on discussions, all of make perfect sense.
Trump repeatedly claims the plans they released are fake, has never released a plan, and any discussion about it makes no sense at all.
4
Nate5064112 days ago
+5
I hate to ask this but do you have any link to those plans? I would LOVE to know how much this orange moron is behind the plan Obama had in place that he toughed as horrible.
5
MyNameIsRay2 days ago
+10
[https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/world/middleeast/iran-10-point-proposal-trump-us-ceasefire.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/world/middleeast/iran-10-point-proposal-trump-us-ceasefire.html)
It's a lot worse than the deal Obama had, even includes reparations, lifting of sanctions, and un-freezing of assets.
10
fiction82 days ago
+1
Sure but those 10 points are over a month old and were never realistic in the first place. They were an Iranian wishlist, a starting point with everything they could ever dream for on it.
The question is where have negotiations gone since then.
1
Bluemanze1 day ago
From what ive seen through unverified reporting, Iran is sticking to an either or position, where they will either give up the strait or give up enrichment, but not both because they want leverage over Israel and the other gulf states and by extension the US. The US obviously wants both, because giving up either of those would be a political disaster. Hence the impasse.
I dont see Iran conceding on this. They can hold out longer than the world can. Its either going back to a shooting war or the US just packs up and leaves.
0
waterbed872 days ago
+6
The Obama plan is more or less what he wants but Iran, sadly rightfully, has absolutely no interest in going back to that after the United States proved themselves yet again stupidly unfaithful and unreliable.
It will be decades before Donald Trump's damage to the U.S. and really the entire world will be undone.
Well done Americans.
6
lonigus2 days ago
+173
TACO tuesday comming up. Its like a tradition at this point.
173
Cabbages24ADollar2 days ago
+32
No Travel Independence Day. Stay Home
32
Wilder33122 days ago
+7
es verdad, tienes razon en eso, despues tiene que salir a aceptarla
7
leducdeguise2 days ago
+1
A huevo
1
notkevin_durant2 days ago
-37
Except it doesn’t actually happen on Tuesdays. If you are going to cry “TACO”, at least get it right.
-37
lonigus1 day ago
+2
You must be fun at parties lol
2
Thorn_Within2 days ago
+45
They're begging for a deal guys, just absolutely BEGGING, I tells ya! /s
45
Wilder33122 days ago
+2
jaja es cierto
2
anelectricmind2 days ago
+46
Pump.... and Dump! Pump.... and Dump!
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
See you next Friday.
46
Wilder33122 days ago
+3
Trump esta haciendo eso por todo lado, incluso con su proyecto cripto liberty
3
DrPsyz92 days ago
-6
We haven't seen any dumps tho.
-6
anelectricmind2 days ago
+4
Have you followed the news in the past... oh.... several months?
I have seen roller-coasters having less lows and highs than the stock markets since Truimp started playing them as the Pedophile in Chief of the United States of America.
4
Groovychick19782 days ago
+3
Don't forget the commercial betting sites. Inside players are making millions.
3
anelectricmind2 days ago
+2
Oh yes. This new plague.
2
Groovychick19782 days ago
+3
Late stage capitalism is ugly.
3
Lathe-and-Order-SVU2 days ago
+5
Just wait until they cut that data cable under the straight. So many data centers there are going to go offline. Then it’s affecting the people that really matter to the GOP, billionaires. Once this becomes an inconvenience and source of profit loss, the GOP will be all about ending the way. But how do they pull it off without looking like giant losers here?
5
Wilder33122 days ago
+2
es verdad, hablando de eso es increible ver como en estos tiempos, aun gran parte de internet depende de un cable que esta en el fondo del mar
2
2xfun2 days ago
+10
Inflation only truly affects the working class. Rampant inflation will enslave the working class while the ultra wealthy watch their asset inflate and their wealth preserved.
I think the goal is to get rampant inflation.
It was always a class war and the upper class won
10
Winter_Whole20802 days ago
+4
Who makes money with higher oil prices? Oil companies. Who owns stock in oil companies? Wealthy people.
4
Wilder33122 days ago
+2
es verdad por donde lo veamos siempre vamos a perder
2
d1andonly2 days ago
+4
What was Irans offer? The details don’t seem to be made public.
4
Wilder33122 days ago
+1
eh buscado informacion pero no la encuentro
1
xpda2 days ago
+10
It's Monday!
10
Wilder33122 days ago
+1
empezo pesadita la semana
1
noleksum122 days ago
+3
Trump and cronies buy oil call options... then trump dismisses Iran's offer, oil rises as Hormuz closure persists.
Fixed the headline.
3
Wilder33122 days ago
+2
ellos mueven los mercados a su antojo
2
Kingy102 days ago
+4
I'm tired, boss.
4
Wilder33122 days ago
+1
jajja todos lo estamos
1
Substantial_Milk81702 days ago
+5
Trump dismisses offer, oil rises' sounds like the exact diplomatic outcome the fossil fuel lobbyists paid for.
5
Wilder33122 days ago
+1
es verdad, ya todo esta acordado
1
ObviouslyRealPerson2 days ago
+5
Increasing the price of oil is the point
5
Wilder33122 days ago
+2
y lo estan logrando
2
Holdenater2 days ago
+4
Trump will only accept an offer if it is on his own terms, accepting an offer from Iran would in his opinion be an insult to his already fragile ego.
4
Wilder33122 days ago
+1
no acpeta, pone multas o amenaza, despues se da cuenta que le va a ir peor y debe calmar su arrebato
1
DrPsyz92 days ago
+2
All of this was just posturing to be able to say they gave peace a chance. The question is, are they done posturing? I think they won't go back to bombing before the China trip. After that though, I think we're back to all out war.
2
Wilder33122 days ago
+1
y asi no quedan como los malos totalmente, maravillosa juagas
1
mercurius4202 days ago
+2
There will be no passage through the strait until Iran nominates Trump for a Nobel Peace prize.
2
Wilder33122 days ago
+1
jajaja ese trump y sus cosas
1
HaThatsFunnyRight1 day ago
+2
It's time to offer nuclear armageddon on queue, it's Monday after all.
2
Wilder33121 day ago
+1
empezando la semana tranquilito
1
SideburnSundays2 days ago
+3
I have a feeling we're not going to get through this without a complete overthrow of Republicans in office.
3
Wilder33122 days ago
+1
solo el tiempo lo dira, pero concuerdo contigo
1
Servile-PastaLover2 days ago
+3
Trump's fragile ego preventing him from making a deal with Iran that's anything short of Iran's total capitulation.
And he's harming the rest of the world because of it.
3
Wilder33122 days ago
+1
si, si no se hace como el lo quiere entonces dicen que estan en contra
1
Fearless_Ad_54702 days ago
+2
It's just the start of a new week.
2
Wilder33122 days ago
+1
un dia mas, trump con alguna tonteria mas
1
Captain_Cockerels2 days ago
+2
Right after I bought more airline stock 😒
2
T4whereareyou2 days ago
+2
Market mayhem Monday today. Tomorrow TACO Tuesday. Buy on Wednesday, sell on Monday. Rinse and Repeat week after week.
2
Venat142 days ago
+3
Wouldn't you want to buy on Monday when the market crashes so it goes up when he TACOS?
3
Stockengineer2 days ago
+2
Market green, already moving up from taco Tuesday
2
MhrisCac1 day ago
+1
Taco Tuesday on a Monday?
1
EdiblePeasant1 day ago
+2
After Trump meets with Xi, does everything change?
2
Ok_Speed_39842 days ago
+1
Iran's misunderstanding about USA postwar reconstruction is that we typically conquer their country, give it back, and then pay for repairs. We rarely smash and pay damages without the land domination. That would be out of sequence. Besides, all bets are off with the current administration.
To be clear, just leave, Trump! Iran will probably reopen the Strait of Hormuz after a sincere apology.
1
Wilder33122 days ago
dijo poco, pero dijo lo que era
0
2001_Arabian_Nights2 days ago
+1
Nobody is making any serious offers. There is no real effort going in to actually negotiate anything. There is some effort going in to making it appear as if there are serious negotiations going on, but there aren’t.
Both sides are so stubborn, so hell-bent on ‘saving face’, so dug in to rationalizing previous mistakes, that something will have to drastically change before any real talks happen.
1
Stockengineer2 days ago
+4
Say Iran capitulates, what stops us from pulling a Venezuela? 😂
4
SmokingPuffin2 days ago
+2
People talk about how this war was for regime change. Well, the regime changed. It was a theocracy. Now it's a military dictatorship. The IRGC is in charge of the country and it isn't going to collaborate with Trump the way that Maduro's flunkies did.
2
2001_Arabian_Nights2 days ago
What do you mean “capitulate”?… “We surrender, our government is dissolved, please send new government.”and we install a tv personality from Florida as supreme leader?
Wouldn’t need to Venezuela him.
88 Comments