Recessions are trailing indicators, we've likely been in a recession for a while
56
gyph2564 days ago
+26
Came here to say this. Lived through 2008. This feels eerily similar.
26
FTwo3 days ago
+3
Not really. Not yet. Feels like 2006 for me.
The Dow has not lost 50% of its value. The housing market has not dropped out, wiping out equity from a majority of homes. Banks have not stopped giving people mortgages. Those crazy ARM loans are not at risk of defaulting because people cannot refinance the loan.
The loan they got by being told to drastically inflate their income, get an ARM loan, then buy a house they could not afford with a traditional loan. "You can just refinance at a lower interest rate in 3-5 years" was the standard lie.
2008 was much worse than this current shit. Let us revisit this issue in a few months when the AI bubble pops. Since trump has been getting rid of those financial safeties that were put in place following 2008, the rich are setting the stage to let people get loans they are not qualified to receive so we can repeat the cycle.
We can watch the ultra rich buy up the scraps for pennies on the dollar and let China buy up more of our debt to control a larger chunk of our dollar. Again.
Or, no-one buys that debt and the dollar falls very hard.
3
Fancy_Exchange_98214 days ago
I’m surprised at just how many people are out and about driving, spending money and doing things like they’re rolling in it still
Interesting to see that compared to recession. I was 8 in 2008 so I don’t know how people lived during it or before it either
0
Overall_Affect_27824 days ago
+19
“I’m surprised at just how many people are out and about driving, spending money and doing things like they’re rolling in it still”
I was 21 in 2008….people were doing that even then. Respectfully, do you think people just stop doing stuff in a recession? No. The show has to go on, the world keeps turning, families do what they can especially. Yes I knew people that lost their jobs, I only knew of one family who came close to losing their home then, they robbed Peter to pay Paul. But for the most part, people kept doing stuff.
As they say, you just keep swimming. What else can you do?
19
bloop76764 days ago
+2
Yeah, this seems crazy. I didn't pay a lot of attention what was happening right before 2008 but it seemed like it was more of a surprise to people. This time people have been talking about a bad economy and possible recession for a year already and people still seem to be spending like they're all rich.
It really seems to be at odds with how everyone is always talking about how the average American is so hard up. I remember seeing an investment article on an expensive retail clothing store that was talking about how they were so well run and were still raking it in despite the recessionary climate. That stood out to me, making me think that's probably not actually a good thing like they were presenting it as.
2
A_Swan_Broke_My_Arm4 days ago
+1
It mostly existed only in the media, almost like a doom and gloom campaign, until it was declared over. And then, as (presumably) everyone’s reserves were depleted, that’s when reality hit as you see and hear of small to medium businesses go under.
There’s no white flash followed by a mushroom cloud. It’s the slow, quiet dying of local business.
1
FTwo3 days ago
+1
No, people lost their life savings. I watched my friends lose their houses and my landlord lose their house.
Interest rates were dropping, home equity was soaring, and home owners were refinancing A LOT to cash in on their home equity. Bank loan officers would encourage you to lie about your income because no-one checked mortgage applications. ARM loans were all the rage and so easy to get. By the time your 3 year ARM loan ended, you could expect to refinance at a lower interest rate AND have a big chunk of equity in the home's value. This was the formula for normal people to get rich in the early 2000s. Banks were making money hand over fist in loan fees. Home builders were unstoppable and throwing up subdivisions in record time.
It crashed HARD! Take a look at the mortgage foreclosure rates after 2008. 2008 was VERY real and not just a news story.
2008 is a huge reason you see so many elderly people working right now. The elderly used to only be Walmart greeters, or working at a Hallmark store. Those that wanted to see people worked, the others lived off their modest fixed income.
Adults lost so much of their 401k back then and they still have not recovered enough to retire. So, they are taking your fast food order and bagging groceries. Jobs normally given to high school kids.
It was a solid shit show back then.
1
A_Swan_Broke_My_Arm3 days ago
+2
1, that’s what I said.
2, I’m in the UK.
2
FTwo3 days ago
+1
>It mostly existed only in the media, almost like a doom and gloom campaign, until it was declared over.
This is what you said. It was not a media "doom and gloom campaign".
1
A_Swan_Broke_My_Arm3 days ago
You don’t really need me to explain what ‘and then… ‘ means, do you?
0
IKillZombies4Cash4 days ago
I was about 30 in 2008 - it didn't feel as dire as it was. The market corrected HARD for a short while, if you had cash you invested it and made a quick 30%.
The wall st types probably felt it worst, but no one I know got laid off or down sized.
0
DTH20014 days ago
+6
Is that a GDP drop in your pocket, or are you just pleased to see me
6
Wyciorek4 days ago
+12
UK might be still flirting, but the recession is already picking a name for their third child
12
Maeran4 days ago
+8
It feels like the north of England has been in a solid marriage with recession since at least 2008.
8
-Ikosan-3 days ago
+2
More like 1978
2
Rasples19983 days ago
+2
Acting like we haven't been in a recession for 18 years.
2
Brilliant_Version3444 days ago
+1
Maybe take recession on a date ?
1
Significant_Tea_29814 days ago
+1
Happy flirting.
1
Boys4Ever4 days ago
+1
When the consumer has already cut spending to just essentials that they can no longer afford to buy that's when you know a recession has happened. This is because once consumption is reduced that's when employers start cutting jobs which leads to less spending which leads to more cuts and then you have unpaid debt followed by bankruptcy and short sales and finally foreclosures because that owing cannot even afford to sell.
But wait. There's more. Now prices need to be dropped to spur consumption which leads to new hiring which leads to new debt. Only thing that really changed was further transfer of wealth since wealth bought those distressed homes and now offering them back as rentals to the very people who owned them previously.
Goodbye American dream. Welcome to greed.
24 Comments