Ukraine faces missile shortage due to Middle East war, says Zelensky

>nobody actually knows There are so many good reasons not to. 1: heavily defended mountainous island. 2: China has approximately zero experience with large scale amphibious assaults 3: a war would destroy most of what China actually wants in Taiwan. 4: If America withdraws from Asia, Taiwan will naturally fall into Chinese orbit. They kinda already are. 5: Taiwan is extremely useful to China right now. They do massive trade with China. 6: it’s a very useful political rallying cry, the exact same way that American politics has used the war on drugs, and the war on terror. It might be a secret exactly which combination of these things weighs most heavily into the decision making of CCP leadership, but pretty much everybody knows the general reasons.

because china isn't stupid. they can wait 100 years. they only flex when somebody in Taiwan go to starts spouting shit like ..separate now ..diplomatic ties ..etc. as long as taiwan does its thing and prospers, people live well etc...china will just chill. china will advance faster than Taiwan, and eventually, it will be advantageous to be Chinese rather than Taiwanese. why invade when you can asimilate? also, you know taiwan will detonate all their valuable assets if invaded. so empty victory .

> Nobody actually knows why China hasn't reclaimed Taiwan by now Have you considered that China just isn't interested in militarism like the United States?

This is complete nonsense and armchair military analysis.

They would be unable to defend it themselves, but they'd be able to aid in the defense. Right now, they already have the russian war and their own war on their plate. They pretty much have no capacities to aid Taiwan. And when China attacks Taiwan, what will India do? Global instability leads to more global instability until everything unstable has fallen over and a new build up cycle starts again.

The why is because by any legal standard, China already owns Taiwan fully, even the US acknowledges this since the 70’s. If Taiwan wants to be independent, the onus is on them to start the separation, not the other way around.

Nobody actually knows why China hasn't reclaimed Taiwan by now Homeland population doesn't seem so eager. Also fearing a protracted war like Russia created against Ukraine would not be popular at home. To me it seems that the government is still willing to serve reality vs ego. The disruption in trade would be incalculable. At this point it may be like trying to swallow a porcupine, with the defense that Taiwan has built?

Incorrect. US forces maybe not defend Taiwan ALONE. but most likely the defense would be a coalition of the Phillipines, South Korea, Japan, and the US.

I never understood this narrative. The logistics of a large amphibious invasion are very, very difficult and success is far from guaranteed. Due to satellites it’s impossible to hide the force buildup required and so Taiwan//US would have minimum a week or two of notice. The failure of an amphibious invasion would be catastrophic, and would likely be unrecoverable for the current leadership. Keep in mind chinas military has very little combat experience. China has massive economic opportunity ahead with exporting batteries, EV to the world essentially replacing opec entirely over the next 10-20 years. Theoretically, I think it would take a few years from here before they could actually be ready to invade but the risk and cost make it fairly unlikely, imo.

lol, the US plan in a full blown Chinese invasion of tawian is probably bomb all the chip fab then see if they can defend the island.

I heard Russia say the same about Ukraine tbh

Number 1: Because it’s very difficult to move troops 100 miles over water when your opponent has been building defenses for 50 years in preparation for the attack. That’s why. And number 2, the US told them they couldn’t. Also China is not as strong as they pretend to be. Their military is completely unproven. Not even their most senior officers have ever seen combat. In fact, rich families can buy high military ranks for their kids. Corruption is rampant in the military and in all of the Chinese system. And the ground soldiers are only-child males who were raised as spoiled “little emperors”. So the US would not be able to stop the invasion but they could easily blockade oil and other items going into China (6 million barrels a day from the Persian Gulf) because China is the biggest buyer of everything. China would be in a lot of trouble in a matter of months. Remember China is a low-cost, value-add economy, which means they import raw materials and improve it, selling at low cost with small profit margins. Also China is an export economy. They rely on other countries to buy from them to survive. If they took Taiwan they would become a pariah and what are they gonna do, threaten countries to buy from them? And a lot of countries have pushed back at Chinas tactics of product-dumping into markets and ruining the local companies. They can’t go off on their own economically because they don’t have a domestic market. They tried but couldn’t build it. The US market is 78% domestic while China is only 35%. The fact is the average Chinese family cannot afford the things China manufactures. And they are no longer the world’s low cost manufacturer. They have lots of competition now. China has many problems that cannot be solved. Their demographics have completely flipped on them and no one is having kids anymore. Their debt is unsustainable, they have no water in the south, they are the fastest aging country in history, and Xi is being pushed out as we speak. Those are a few of the reasons an attack on Taiwan would end modern China. It would break up into 3 or 4 pieces.

Noeth korea's military is so behind the south it's not funny.  "But they have more xxx" yeah but 100 of is in active service in their military https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenyang_J-5 Besides the serious nuke concerns, and just as serious potential economic damage from conventional bombing, stricly militarily the north military would be destroyed by the south sneezing in their general direction.

Even without nuke north Korea has the capacity to flatten Seoul.

Also an attack is going to be a net negative even if successful. Capturing a country costs a lot (both in the actual war and the international repercussions) and doesn't pay much. Pretty much the only upside is that it's good for the ego of the attacker's leadership.

I know it makes me sick. Well now we are selling ammo and materiel to europeans to give to Ukraine instead of gifting it but regardless this Iranian shit has sucked us into ANOTHER israeli conflict. Its even more ridiculous because a lot of the “Maga” right wing nuts would say we shouldn’t support Ukraine because “ we are against foreign wars” but the second Trump danced to Netanyahu’s drum and bombed Iran then many were magically for it…… the hypocrisy is nuts

They cant. For decades, these production lines have produced X number a year.... To cover some use, but there is no way to exponentially increase production for most vendors. The product is just too advanced to just open new production lines quickly. There are literally dozens of vendors that are used in something like missile production. Trying to spool them all up just doesnt work well. And all you need is 1 vendor to bottle the production goals and it kills the whole show.

Of the century and even that's an understatement. There is a saying that Nikita Khrushchev supposedly said. It doesn't matter if he said it or not, what matters is that it seems that happened. The gist is that they would conquer the US without firing a bullet.