ListNook

IntelArtiGen Mar 27, 2026 +564

Honestly If anyone knows whether the strait is open or not, it's them, and if this article is true they consider it's currently closed. No matter what politicians could be saying.

564

No_Tree_8144 Mar 27, 2026 +300

it's basically been closed. Irans been screeching at the top of their lungs that china and india can go thru for a while now. and both countries had about 4-5 tankers pass thru each in the same time span. whether neither countries trust the Iranian decentralized force to not have one lunatic commander launch a $30k drone and evaporate a $150 million tanker in the air, or Irans just saying they can pass thru to push propaganda in the west, we don't know

300

ProtoplanetaryNebula Mar 27, 2026 +229

China is also not a monolith, the captain could have just decided that he's not taking the risk.

229

No_Tree_8144 Mar 27, 2026 +115

most captains aren't taking the risk, which is my point. these countries have a "free pass" and yet barely any movement

115

yunus89115 Mar 27, 2026 +89

I don’t blame them, I don’t think I’d risk traversing a mine field even if I were given a map.

89

ssnistfajen Mar 27, 2026 +23

With examples like PS752 in 2020, it's pretty clear the combination of incompetence and zealotry in that area is too much risk for neutral third parties.

23

bilyl Mar 28, 2026 +14

1. Is there adequate insurance on these? 2. Is the captain willing to risk their life? Who is rescuing them if they get it?

14

No_Tree_8144 Mar 28, 2026 +10

1. no, not at all 2. probably not unless the government kinda forces him to pull thru, but I doubt that would happen. they probably leave it to the captains judgment 3. Idk for china but I did see a couple videos showing the indian navy escorting a few of their tankers so worst case probably the Chinese/indian navy coming in to save them. regardless usually each tanker is worth like $150 million and has like a days worth of gas or something in it so I dont think its worth it for them to force anything, at least for now

10

MaybeTheDoctor Mar 28, 2026 +2

I don't see the Indian or any other navy actually being able to do anything effective against a swarm of drones heading for the ship they are escorting. I think navy is more moral support at this point.

2

No_Tree_8144 Mar 28, 2026 +6

also if we're being fr, the navy thats being sent to e***** probably has explicit orders to protect themselves first before the tanker they're escorting lmao. their destroyers or whatever are worth significantly more and much, much harder to replace than an oil tanker. I think the American navy straight up said so. which is why they said they cant "insure" any ship like trump said they would. the indian or Chinese or whatever government just isnt gonna be straight up about it

6

CyberneticSaturn Mar 28, 2026 +1

Insurance for Chinese ships is moving domestic for sanction avoidance and since some of it is cheaper, but a lot of it is still international. It may even be an insurance issue.

1

Paraparo Mar 27, 2026 +20

Yeah, Iran has already had the issue of leaders stating they won't strike targets, only to be rebuked by the IRGC who double down on those targets. There is no real way to enforce such guarantees, and I would not be surprised if a number of those launcher sites overlooking the strait are disconnected enough they wouldn't be able to tell who ships belong to even if they did want to avoid some.

20

Specific-Result9862 Mar 28, 2026 -4

This is a nonsense take... They would never hit a Chinese ship. China is pretending the straight is closed because it fucks the world economy.

-4

kanyeswift Mar 28, 2026 +17

They would never hit a Chinese ship *intentionally*. The IRGC and Iranian proxies are nearly devoid of central leadership. If I were a captain I certainly wouldn't risk those odds, personally.

17

Specific-Result9862 Mar 28, 2026 -3

> They would never hit a Chinese ship intentionally. lol So you think they would hit a Chinese ship and then pretend it was an accident? Or you think a 10 million dollar weapon is going to hit the wrong target?

-3

kanyeswift Mar 28, 2026 +3

A single Shahed-136 is $20k-$50k and would do a number on any tanker going through the Strait. I don't think they're going to pretend, either. I legitimately believe there are IRGC units and Iranian proxies that would not be able to ID the nation of a tanker. I don't think it's farfetched enough to risk the crew of an oil tanker, and the insurance companies seem to be having the same thought.

3

MazeRed Mar 27, 2026 +46

Reportedly they also mined the straight. Even if they got a map of the mines I would be stressed. Plus I don’t put it past Isreal to false flag strike a ship

46

Drak_is_Right Mar 27, 2026 +12

They are going close to the Iranian shore and not using the central lanes

12

CaveManta Mar 28, 2026 +7

We need a very fast vessel to race through, attracting all the mines in the process. It'll be just like in Galaxy Quest.

7

Fawksyyy Mar 28, 2026 +10

>Plus I don’t put it past Isreal to false flag strike a ship What do they have to gain by a false flag attack? What do they lose by being detected to of committed a false flag attack? Do you think its been Israel attacking ships or Iran? If you think its been Iran then why would Israel take such a huge risk to do something that Iran themselves are likely to do again in the near future? Even if Israel was successful and didn't get caught, Iran would deny and say it wasn't them and geopolitically the game would go on, No one is going to jeopardize a agreement as vital as oil over an accidental bombing at worst...

10

avcloudy Mar 28, 2026 -2

While I don’t think Israel is attacking ships there, what they have to gain is stopping Iran from profiting from oil sales to non-US non-Israel aligned country, putting more pressure on them to open sales up. It puts pressure on countries like China to force Iran to open up. It redirects blame for this whole mess to Iran. The valuable part for them would be the uncertainty, and the unwillingness to trust Iran’s promises of safe passage.

-2

ChaseballBat Mar 27, 2026

From what I heard they are "smart" mines that can be deactivated. Which is how they are getting across via the toll system.

0

MrGraveyards Mar 27, 2026 +12

'Powered' by chatgpt! 'Yes! You are absolutely right! That mine should have been switched off! Here's an update, I am sorry your tanker blew up, this time it will definitely not blow up!' 'The tanker blew up again' 'Yes! You are absolutely right! I turned on another mine and also launched a spacex rocket, here's another patch that fixes those problems!' 'Eh.. chatgpt.. another tablet blew up...'

12

Despair_Tire Mar 27, 2026 +3

Have you seen the movie Dark Star, made in 1974? There's a spaceship bomb that has artificial intelligence. It was also comedic.

3

Minguseyes Mar 28, 2026 +1

Ships that pay the toll have been travelling close to the Iranian shore, well away from the usual shipping lanes.

1

ChaseballBat Mar 28, 2026 +1

Who knows that's just what I read

1

bikbar1 Mar 28, 2026

The smartness of the mines or the operators can't be relied upon.

0

qTp_Meteor Mar 27, 2026 -19

Its amazing how israel bad is the answer for everything. Its even the reason for why the Chinese and Indians dont pass through the strait which Iran (falsely) claimed is open. They are obviously closing it completely and the only reason they arent admitting to it is that its a severe war crime

-19

forgotmyusernm Mar 27, 2026 +8

Just curious, what is the war crime of closing the strait? I didn’t think it rose to that level of escalation, but would like to know.

8

qTp_Meteor Mar 27, 2026 +4

[given the fact that they have no right to impose such a blockade](https://chinaus-icas.org/research/irans-closure-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-as-a-reprisal-to-us-israeli-joint-attack-a-legality-analysis/?hl=en-US#:~:text=This%20%E2%80%9Cthreat%E2%80%9D%20was%20confirmed%20on,any%20ship%20trying%20to%20pass%E2%80%9D.), their firing upon civilian ships would be a war crime the blockade itself is illegal and if enough time passes and there are humanitarian disasters due to the blockade it would become a crime against humanity

4

poppin_noggins Mar 27, 2026 -3

It’s not really amazing

-3

bilyl Mar 28, 2026

It’s not like a 1900s mine. It’s a drone with torpedo

0

KingPictoTheThird Mar 27, 2026 +3

2 indian tankers passed through the straight literally yesterday

3

Zakery92 Mar 28, 2026 +1

The propaganda piece can’t be understated. Non-US media has been reporting all week that Trump is negotiating with Iranians but it’s likely not IRGC or current admin. Instead it’s someone the US is attempting to help install. Meanwhile the IRGC and US media continue to push the narrative that this is not happening. Iran is very adept at the US culture and how to move public opinion via social media

1

SeaworthinessSome454 Mar 27, 2026 +1

The Iran/russia/Iranian proxy propaganda machine is top tier. It’s what you get when you have a trump level “personality” in office but actually have zero media to refute the claims. There’s no media in those countries that can report the truth, and Iran has had the internet shut down during any periods of instability to prevent the people from reporting on it themselves. Iran can say whatever they want and Americans will gobble it right on up.

1

ATangK Mar 27, 2026

China could but if US is about to attack them, they’ll be refused passage during the attacks.

0

Slow_Space8943 Mar 27, 2026 -3

More like a false flag u.s missile targeting them as they pass the straight…….. Jesus Christ people aren’t the sharpest knives in the kitchen

-3

gormhornbori Mar 27, 2026 +21

Even if the ships are Chinese, the insurance company is probably not. And the insurance company pretty much has the last word.

21

Wheres_my_wank_sock Mar 27, 2026 +14

Decentralised Combat Control. Probably not sure if some commander on the coast got the memo. Any doubt and the strait remains closed.

14

Xelanders Mar 28, 2026 +3

Insurance companies are ultimately the ones who decide whether the strait is open or closed.

3

GuelphEastEndGhetto Mar 27, 2026 +101

I’d be willing to bet the boat captains know more than what is publicly stated.

101

KingPictoTheThird Mar 27, 2026 -47

Two indian tankers passed through the strait just yesterday..

-47

so-much-wow Mar 28, 2026 +23

And the day before that, it was closed. See a trend?

23

blitzkriegkitten Mar 28, 2026 -8

enjoy your downvote for stating a truth 🤷

-8

earlandir Mar 28, 2026 +7

Change it to airplanes if that'll help you understand. If a bunch of pilots say they won't fly out of an airport for safety reasons today, saying that pilots flew out yesterday is pretty irrelevant to the topic at hand.

7

BarteloTrabelo Mar 28, 2026 +4

I don't think you understand. They are being downvoted for not seeing how irrelevant that is to what is actually happening.

4

ragdolbear Mar 27, 2026 +159

Iranians are expecting for incursion from Israel and US and don't want any ships in the way.

159

Shoot_from_the_Quip Mar 27, 2026 +94

That or the Chinese expected a false flag to make it look like Iran attacked them to split support. At this point I wouldn't put any fuckery beyond any of the participants. Between Israel, Iran, and the current US government the lies, misinformation, and propaganda are nonstop.

94

ConstructionOwn2909 Mar 28, 2026 +2

To be honest, your comment on false-flag is... a very valid concern.

2

EvereveO Mar 28, 2026 +1

What a fucked up place this world has become.

1

InterestingSpeaker Mar 27, 2026 +6

Another explanation is that there is a breakdown in communication on the iranian side and the guys guarding the strait don't know what ships to let through

6

satnam14 Mar 28, 2026 +3

Yes but those kind of communication systems don't break randomly. US military has the capability to break them. But that's just feeds into the theory that they're preparing for an attack of some kind

3

CaptainONaps Mar 27, 2026 +14

That makes sense. Any data to back that up? I have a theory based on nothing. Iran's goal is to destroy the US economy. It would make sense if they're controlling the flow on a timeline. As in, only allowing a certain amount of oil to be transported out over a given time period. A drip instead of a trickle.

14

supereuphonium Mar 27, 2026 +26

The rest of the world is taking the burden of the strait closure far more than the US, which is a next oil exporter and primarily imports oil from Canada and Mexico. This actually hurts China a lot, since nearly half of their oil passes through the strait. It’s just that since the US started this, there is more political pressure to return to the status quo.

26

CaptainONaps Mar 27, 2026 -4

I hear you. But Iran is exporting oil to China, India and SE Asia. And they're not selling it in USD, they're selling it in Chinese Yen. Also, there are no more sanctions on Russian oil. That's also bad for the USD.

-4

jonmitz Mar 27, 2026 +18

> Any data to back that up? the us markets are closing in a few hours

18

Wyrmnax Mar 27, 2026 +20

To poke at your theory: If Irans goal is to destroy the US economy, it failed before even starting. Iran simply does not have the resources to outlast the US. It is more likely that Irans goals are to worsen the US economy suficiently that the backlash will be enough to stop them. The US could feasibly destroy Iranian economy. But the opposite is impossible, especially wince there is very little that Iran can do in mass on mainland US. If you are trying to call a military strategy, dont use superlatives. Figure out what is actually possible, and go from there. So raise oil prices - check. Close the straight of hormuz - check. Crate a global stagnation due to inflation - probably check. Make gas and food prices so high in the US that the government might need to step back - probably check. Destroy the US economy? Thats *way* more difficult.

20

Drak_is_Right Mar 27, 2026 +8

US is probably among the top 20 most insulated economies from the strait closure. What hurts the US is a crisis elsewhere. As a democracy though US politicians are BLAMED for the pain.

8

Bluemanze Mar 27, 2026 +11

That depends strongly on your definition of "destroy". The US's ability to project influence overseas depends largely on the petrodollar. If Iran is successful in setting up a toll booth over the strait that's taking yuan instead of dollars and refusing passage to ships with oil traded in dollars, that in itself would be crippling to the US. They can't blow up up our power plants, but they are in a position to weaken us in ways that are worse than some infrastructure damage.

11

I_Fail_At_Life444 Mar 27, 2026 +3

Thank you for pointing this out. The Republicans in the US have done more damage to US influence world wide than most people realize. I've said it before, this is the end of Pax Americana. It won't happen overnight but the car has gone off the cliff. We're in those few Looney Toons moments where gravity doesn't work before someone falls.

3

Barnaboule69 Mar 27, 2026 +3

The car is on fire and there's no driver at the wheel.

3

post-future Mar 27, 2026 +2

Always good to see a GY!BE reference in the wild.

2

henchman171 Mar 27, 2026 +1

USA lost its allies and lost its soft power. Now they have to sell even more debt to outside countries just to keep its government working next week So Much winning

1

CompletelyRandy Mar 27, 2026 +6

Just to understand what "Destroying the economy" looks like. In your opinion, did the 2008 crash destroy the economy?

6

blimpyway Mar 27, 2026 +84

If the straight is mined, "safe passage" requires disclosure of safe path ways which nullifies the reasons and utility of using mines.

84

Jaepheth Mar 27, 2026 +54

Need to get the Bluetooth enabled mines that are compatible with the 'don't splode me bro' app

54

trout_or_dare Mar 27, 2026 +27

The app which they vibe coded with Claude over the course of one weekend.

27

TheKarenator Mar 27, 2026 +11

mine_exploder.exe if is_friend = true then explode = false else explode = true end if

11

SreesanthTakesIt Mar 27, 2026 +3

I don't know if intentional but the fact that this sets is_friend instead of comparison is funny considering we were vibe coding.

3

TheKarenator Mar 27, 2026 +2

Depends on the language

2

mamwybejane Mar 27, 2026 +2

You can just set explode to !friend

2

sweetno Mar 27, 2026 +1

It executes!

1

thisismydayjob_ Mar 27, 2026 +3

Too many ads, deleted it

3

doyouevencompile Mar 27, 2026 +1

Minesweeper Live 2026

1

WreckItJohn Mar 27, 2026 +1

Sorry, you've run out of free map content. Subscribe to Don't 'Splode Me Bro Plus for only $99,999,999.99 per month to continue.

1

ChaseballBat Mar 27, 2026 +1

They are smart mines that can be remotely active or deactivated.

1

wizardbase Mar 27, 2026 +13

They mine everywhere except the safe path which is now an even narrower easy-to-hit killbox. Doesn't matter if you know the safe route, they're the ones who made it and you can bet they have their guns zeroed in on that strip.

13

championchilli Mar 27, 2026 +12

Check the map. There's effectively two passages. There's the strait proper that is wide and a second thin almost river like passage that moves alongside the coast on the north. The main passage is mined. The narrow passage north of the islands is the 'open' part, it meanders along the Iranian coast for a long while, this is the toll booth area.

12

Semyaz Mar 27, 2026 +6

This is absolutely untrue. Forcing boats to take an exact route is almost the exact same as having them sit still when targeting them with torpedos, rockets, or missiles. It’s hard to imagine, but warships are surprisingly maneuverable and it is vital part of defense against a lot of attacks. Iran is demonstrating they are in complete control, and these actions speak a lot louder than whatever our president is saying.

6

Far-Association5438 Mar 27, 2026 +2

Doesn’t really make sense because they need to get their own oil out too.

2

ATangK Mar 27, 2026 +1

They also have another port before the strait of Hormuz rounds the tip.

1

Far-Association5438 Mar 27, 2026 +1

Ya but isn’t their largest, the Kharg island, is inside no?

1

ChaseballBat Mar 27, 2026 +1

Thought they already did that?

1

Far-Association5438 Mar 27, 2026 +1

I mean, it’s not a one time thing right? They need to keep the flow of their oil. I’m pretty sure they can control the mines, otherwise it doesn’t make sense. Maybe their safe passage is near the coast where there’s threats of drones, but no mines.

1

insightful_pancake Mar 27, 2026 +1

I don’t think mines are the real issue when missile/drone volleys are in play.

1

LynnHaven Mar 27, 2026 +1

My man, have you considered a career in wartime strategy?

1

iceph03nix Mar 28, 2026 +1

I mean, they basically have, and they're paths that basically make you sail into turkey shoot range with 0 maneuver room

1

supercyberlurker Mar 27, 2026 +50

Oh man, how will Trump try to spin this as a positive? *"Our negotiations in Iran are going well. They have given us the great gift of stopping China's attempt to circumvent the US blockade of the strait! I will give Iran another 2-3 weeks, maybe months, to give up all drones and guns or we will hurt them so badly they will hurt badly. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"*

50

Dispator Mar 27, 2026 +15

Yeah pretty much this.

15

heliskinki Mar 27, 2026 +6

Or he’ll get Hesgeth to blow up the tankers and blame it on Iran, because this timeline isn’t going to get less crazy.

6

aliboutit Mar 27, 2026 +8

Honestly I think that is the real reason China declined. The US and Israel love bombing innocents and then blaming others, so I would 100% believe China backed out because they had intel that the US/Israel were going to try something. Or that they're just even close enough to try something. I wouldn't go either. One of their first big moves in the war was bombing a girls' school. If you can knowingly bomb children for fun, what atrocities are you incapable of committing?

8

DreadPiratePete Mar 27, 2026 +26

People talk about trusting Iran, but what about the US? These ships would presumably be heading toward Kharg Island, the very place Trump and c:o have been shouting they would invade if negotiations dont work out. As a captain, would you want to be there when the yanks invade? I'd probably be spooked by any random movement from the US forces too.

26

Withoutanymilk77 Mar 27, 2026 +9

I mean sailing a tanker full of oil through an active war zone is gunna be a big hell no from me dawg.

9

OPA73 Mar 27, 2026 +7

Yea they got a call from the insurance company.

7

BlipBlapBloppityBoop Mar 28, 2026 +3

It would be kind of hilarious in a dark comedy way if the U.S. has to start threatening the safety of any ships that Iran says are okay, just to maintain status quo.

3

Osiris-Amun-Ra Mar 28, 2026 +3

That's because they know about the mines.

3

basemoan Mar 27, 2026 +7

At this point, if I were China, this crisis is already so bad, and fall out will primarily be attributed to the US. China comes out of this smelling pretty good. Might as well make it worse.

7

HumanShadow Mar 27, 2026 +7

Yeah this is shit people do to get ahead in toxic workplaces. They're definitely concerned about safety first and foremost and, would you look at that, the USA made it unsafe. Hmm.

7

Not_Sure__Camacho Mar 27, 2026 +8

You assume that the US and/or Israel would attack the ships to try and blame Iran. At least that's how evil I would assume the US and Israel were at this point.

8

Peacer13 Mar 28, 2026 +5

If their AI algorithm says bomb it, they're gonna bomb it. Just like that all girls school in Iran.

5

Not_Sure__Camacho Mar 28, 2026 -1

I'm not sure what's worse, the artificial intelligence or the "intelligence" of the orange buffoon. I guess the orange shit stain's "intelligence" is probably worse, although both are devoid of human empathy.

-1

ElectricalCold3910 Mar 28, 2026 +2

Expect shortages on everything now.

2

[deleted] Mar 27, 2026 +1

[removed]

1

'Unusual': Two Chinese vessels abort bid to pass Strait of Hormuz despite Iran's assurances of safe passage

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