US Deploys Bulk of Stealthy Long-Range Missile for Iran War

For commercial planes it would be trivial. If China imposed a no fly zone, commercial flights stop immediately. Companies are really risk adverse. And if they don't stop flying, China could escalate by shooting down a cargo plane to minimise loss. Flights will definitely stop then.

You are not getting it. The locals can fly in all they want , the US military can fly in also. Singapore Air, Japan Air and the other Major Airlines are not entering a no fly zone or a conflict zone.

That's really not what was being discussed here - this isn't the scenario where you would be 'in a conflict'. Very much the case that China would be wise to not start anything while we are content to shoot ourselves in the foot, but as things stand today if they were to start something, they would need to finish it quickly. 

Sure You'd rather die or live in a shit hole or send your children or yourself to fight in trenches. In addition, most people in China do not live like a slave.

You people when a Democrat is president: YOU CANT HAVE HEALTHCARE, NATIONAL DEBT REEEEEE when it’s a republican: pshhh what’s 1.4 trillion more to the national debt? It’s fiiiiiine. I can afford extra taxes, can’t you? It’s for war, sweetie.

I Agree that renewables are the way to go, but take in account China, who is about 30-50 years ahead of every other nation in the world when it comes to renewables. [https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/china-energy-transition-review-2025/](https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/china-energy-transition-review-2025/) And even China is gonna be hurt greatly by this because the entire world relies on Diesel for aircrafts, vessels, shipping trucks, etc. The main problem we're facing with this is that both Diesel, and because about 1/3rd of the fertilizer used around the world comes from the strait. So yeah, ideally, we'd have a renewable energy source that could offset at least somewhat of the conflicts issues, but it was still a stupid choice to make, specially with Iran willing to negotiate.

Invading Taiwan right now would be extremely silly. Like I told in another reply, only if Xi is adamant on seeing this reunification in his lifetime or they planned a grand strategy around reaching date in some arbitrary centennial date or something that would cause them to act irrationally if they can't progress until then. Otherwise, putting aside those possibilities, left to CCP, this situation seems like they are very content to just improve their military, technology, cities, robotics, EVs, AI etc. and just let "nature take its course" where they'll fill in gaps and vacuums that are left by the US in Africa, Middle East, Europe etc. Like they are making moves left and right, trade deals, production deals, EV deals, 5G deals etc. They are moving like how the US wanted everyone see it moving (peaceful soft power projection). It would be extremely silly to put all that aside and one day start bombing Taiwan or something. I just can't see it, though we are all humans, and ruling elite are also humans at the end of the day and can lose the plot one day. But so far, they showed admirable patience and restraint. Like the US would have invaded Taiwan by now if they were in China's shoes lol.

I mean I don't like CCP, I have to say that first. But saying that, I have to give credit to their centralized planning and strategic thinking in terms of decades rather than chasing some voter base or trying to think in 2-year (midterms in the US) or 4-year cycles (usual election cycles in the Western democracies), I think that frees them from short-sighted decisions and pressures and actually focus on what would be in the interest of China in the next 10-20-50 years or so. Like I'm sure, just like the US, they are also "game-theorizing" this Taiwanese invasion to death and I'm sure like 99% of the time it ends up extremely costly for China to attempt such invasion. Maybe this Iran war and the US shifting some of its vessels and weapons from Pacific to Iran may balance the odds somewhat but I still think that this would be very costly for China. The long game would be to continue developing the country such that like by 2050 or whatever, China would be so powerful that Taiwanese reunification becomes a sort of historic necessity and eventuality rather than an invasion, kind of like how they took Hong Kong back from the UK over the decades. Also I think China cares about optics and PR, and right now they definitely captured the optics as the peaceful, civil, technology and finance-first global superpower over the US. A Taiwanese invasion with missiles and military and such would shatter that image completely and would cause sanctions and alienation and stuff. My only doubt about all of this is the ego of Xi Jinping. I mean I can't read that guy and I can't determine if he has Trump-like dictator ego or is he also motivated to follow such long-term planning. Because they also have fetishes about reaching certain milestones, anniversaries, centenaries etc., and Xi might insist on realizing some of those ambitions within his life-time which might cause short-term strategic mistakes. BUT, extrapolated to long-term, nobody is stopping this Chinese growth (except their expected population drop), unless they find themselves in a military quagmire like Ukraine-Russia or US-Iran. If they can avoid such entanglement, we are slowly headed towards a Chinese century whether we like it or not.

I didn't say China follows international norms and treaties closely. I compared them against the United States and their "military action first" approach to state that China follows non-militaristic approach in their strategic goals. Otherwise I am aware of Hong Kong, or how China is posturing against Taiwan, or their literal border clashes with India, or how Tibet was treated historically etc. China is no saint, well there are no saints in global geopolitics. It's just that, it feels like China is more accepting on not using its military in solving their crises or in reaching their goals, which is, compared to how the US or Russia operates nowadays, is at least more "peaceful", to say the least. By the way it isn't naive or not-naive to say the literal basic observation that China hasn't used its military for a long time now. Like I can't remember the last time, maybe it was against Vietnam after the US pulled out, or something like that and even that was short-lived, I believe. So when a country is NOT using their military and instead oping for diplomacy, trade, technological and financial domination etc., that tends to signal about their habits and behavior. Compare that to Russia and the US, and it's obvious out of these "big 3", which is less inclined to attack another country. As for reunification, in other replies I told specifically that if Xi isn't like Trump or Putin, I doubt we'll see a military action there also. CCP seems to be content to make plans that stretch across decades since they aren't pressed by voters or need to appeal to them etc. If Xi wants to see a reunification in his lifetime or some arbitrary centennial date or something (1947 vs. 2047 etc.), then this situation might as well be stretched for years. I think the end goal stays the same but it's one thing for us to see, in our lifetimes for Chinese military to literally attack Taiwan, and it's another thing that in like 2-3 decades perhaps, Taiwanese chip manufacturing is copied to the US mainland, or China surpasses it, or the global situation becomes such that the reunification feels "inevitable" on both sides. Maybe that would be due to China, Taiwan or the United States, who knows. So I don't think China is some peaceful cuddly panda that just wants to live in peace, but rather, the ruling elite shows symptoms of long-term, strategic, rational planning that doesn't involve brute force. They may break that mould any day, but so far they look more consistent than the US for instance.

I don't know how devastating population shrink would be. I certainly don't agree that it would cause them to lose relevance or that amount of decline. They may take a step back from their current state or they may need to postpone their ambitions, but from what I've been observing, they are doing solid work for an aspiring country. They are leading the world in some areas, trying to reach number 1 on others. I'm not glazing China by the way. I don't like CCP. But I also don't see them as this new age "bad guys" that must be dealt with or whatever Western rhetoric goes for nowadays. They are yet another country, like US, France or Russia that are trying to look out for their own interests. They do ethical and unethical stuff to get there. And at least they are mostly, or up until now, entirely been deploying non-military methods to reach their goals. I also know how strategically important the location of Taiwan is, but like I said, that's a huge risk for China. As their population decline, it would be like Trump-level gamble to then risk that population in a potentially quagmire in Taiwan. That's why I said in another reply that while I don't think CCP would take to such risk, I can't read Xi Jinping so I don't know if that guy is secretly as hawkish as Americans are towards geopolitics and foreign relations, or if he is content to set up the conditions for chips to fall later, maybe decades later, in their favor through non-violent means. Putting aside Xi's orders or ambitions, I can only see a savvy/cynical China invasion only if for instance Americans use nuclear strikes on Iran, or if Japan for instance assumes a military posture enough for China to go, "our rivals are either using indiscriminate military actions or threaten us to do so, so we have to act before they also do the same to us" kind of logic to justify a swift invasion attempt at Taiwan. Like as things stand, I can't see how China switch from strategic long-term planning to sudden invasion. Something has to happen first. And they aren't like America where a crazy president can assume power and shift things 180 degrees. If Xi is a calm, logical, strategic person, they wouldn't invade Taiwan unless something external pressures them to do so.

Lol. Rainbow haired girl. That's a listnook avatar, not what I look like. You're definitely brainwashed.

If they remain in control of the straits at the end of this they will come out of this in a stronger position.

I really don't think it was, but as with all roads less traveled, we'll never know.  I would more fervently argue that strategically it would have been prudent to wait until the Ayatollah passed away and see what the next regime brings. Maybe it would have been the same. Maybe it would have been soft and more open to negotiation. Maybe there would have been infighting, which could have decayed or provided an opportunity to back a side. Right now there is a guaranteed mess that will affect Europe, Africa, and Asia heavily.

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