ListNook

Hikarilo 6 hr ago +87

So Iran is blocking all ships it doesn't want to go through and the US is blocking all ships that Iran wants to go through. Therefore, in order for a ship to get through, it needs to be approved by both Iran and the US. Before the war, there was no need to get approval. When the war started, you need to get Iran's approval. Now you need both Iran and the US. Next month China and the EU will also set up their blockade of the strait.

87

NoVax-Djocovid 5 hr ago +11

I think the US is happy to let them through, they’ll just trap them in there. That’s my reading.

11

SydneyRFC 5 hr ago +10

6 days ago...“What about us charging tolls?” Trump responded. “I’d rather do that than let them have them,” he added. “Why shouldn’t we? We’re the w*****.”

10

Minimum-Act-3030 5 hr ago -20

"Trap them there", "Let them through". I can only assume that English is not a native language of yours

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Personnel_jesus 5 hr ago +15

I can only assume that English reading comprehension is not a strength of yours. They clearly mean they will let them in but not out again. I relinquish and hand you my crown as king of the pedants. Edit: I'm not saying that I agree with the statement (or not), just clarifying someone else's statement to try nip potentially snowballing misunderstandings in the bud.

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MrDerpGently 5 hr ago +3

So the US Navy will fire on Chinese flagged warships to prevent global trade? I certainly can't see any downside to that.

3

amapofthecat7 3 hr ago +1

Warships?

1

totallynotabot2532 5 hr ago -2

They don't have to, the US also has sea mines, they can just drop a few hundreds of them on the other side and at that point no ship will be ablr to cross unless they're suicidal . This workarounds them firing on the ships because they can argue, "we didn't fire at your ship, they sailed across a mined field "

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MrDerpGently 5 hr ago +5

Yes, I am sure that will placate the Chinese, who will not then start enforcing the 13 dash line as their home waters. Also, will the French or Germans accept that the US is illegally blockading one of the busiest waterways in the world because they are too weak to win the pointless war they just started.

5

totallynotabot2532 5 hr ago +1

Of course it won't placate the Chinese, but the Trump administration doesn't really think nor care beyond immediate consequences.

1

MrDerpGently 4 hr ago +2

Oh I agree, I just think that this is begging for a shooting incident, and frankly China would be smart to start one. The US doesn't handle military losses well. China gets to appeal to world sympathy for once, and can use it to strengthen diplomatic and economic ties to the EU, Africa and South Asian countries. It's also an incredible opportunity to test US naval capabilities in a circumstance where it can claim to be the victim.

2

Syncopat3d 4 hr ago -5

I think you're missing the key logic. Iran is effectively blocking the Strait by imposing a toll, yet claiming that the Strait is open, which it technically and empirically is despite ships needing permission from Iran and the low traffic. Ships are still passing through. US is likely blocking Iran-bound or Iran-originated, Iran-friendly, ships, not necessarily all ships. Now for the Strait to remain technically open, Iran has to let through some ships that it does not really want to let through, that don't pay a toll or make special arrangements. US is putting pressure on Iran to let some ships pass freely or admit that it was and is actually closing the Strait.

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calibud 4 hr ago +1

That’s sounds so odd I’m imagining going into a corner store at closing time and behind counter is a robber gun to clerks head forcing the clerk to stay open and make the transaction in which the robber gets a tip too?!

1

Syncopat3d 3 hr ago +1

That's a bad analogy. I can't tell who represent IRGC, USA & the 3rd-parties in your analogy and what actions there correspond to the actions in the Strait.

1

nonametrans 4 hr ago +1

I think you're missing the basic logic: Trump is just a grifter and acts based on feelings like a petulant child, not logic.

1

Syncopat3d 4 hr ago +1

He may be a grifter and he may make foolish decisions and say foolish things, but it does not mean every single thing he does needs to be infinitely foolish in a specific way. If he were, he would be the perfect oracle for making wise decisions -- just ask him for advice and do the opposite. Besides, even despite the logic I describe, the idea itself may or may not be actually good depending on how the IRGC will actually respond, how the plan is executed and communicated and other factors.

1

ZipGently 6 hr ago +13

And they laughed at my oil tanker submarine! “Oh…it’s too heavy…” “Oh…we sunk to the bottom” “Oh…I had to eat Carl….”

13

Personnel_jesus 5 hr ago +5

But oil floats on water, so you've accidentally invented...a regular oil tanker?

5

ZipGently 5 hr ago +3

He ate Carl for nothing?!

3

Personnel_jesus 5 hr ago +2

I'm sorry for your loss, but alas, he dived in vain.

2

seKer82 6 hr ago +52

Histories stupidest administration in charge of histories most powerful military, who could have seen this ending in a shit show.

52

Phase3Investor 5 hr ago +4

So we end up with 1- Prolonged strait closure 2- less oil and gas on the market 3- higher prices Genius lol

4

MrDerpGently 5 hr ago +3

And maybe an armed exchange with Chinese warships in an effort for the world's largest trade empire to strangle global trade for funsies. Like, even assuming he will chicken out of any and every fight, when you have armed ships with opposing orders in a contested tight quarters environment, including possible mines and lots of armed and interested 3rd parties... It's just a recipe for losing control, and every day the market bleeds.

3

GriffinFlash 4 hr ago

can't wait to see history text books in the future.

0

xBabepentel 6 hr ago +21

Is there any way this does not escalate into a full scale regional conflict within the next few days?

21

Joyous-Volume-67 6 hr ago +39

you say those words as if you haven't been alive these past 6 weeks

39

Wonderful-Pause1048 6 hr ago +29

This conflict has already escalated beyond the regional level.

29

Villag3Idiot 5 hr ago +5

Wait for China and EU ships trying to exit or even being escorted by their country's navy at the strait's exit and see what happens next.

5

VanCityPhotoNewbie 6 hr ago +5

Iran threatened to attack ships going through the Suel Canal, and the Bab al-Mandab Strait if the US escalates attacks last week. I am pretty sure they will do it now. It will be a repeat from the past when the Houthi's were attacking ships heading to Israel

5

Chaotickane 4 hr ago +5

The Suez is relatively shallow and quite narrow. If Iran sunk a large tanker right in the center of it, there would be global trade disruption for months if not years

5

windingsand 4 hr ago +1

A container ship has the possibility of doing the funniest thing right now

1

Omegatherion 5 hr ago +2

A time machine 2 months back

2

Edward-Gentry 5 hr ago +4

Anyone else think the US is increasingly copying Iran’s best ideas without pausing to think why Iran adopted them in the first place?

4

kl122002 6 hr ago +14

My question is, since when does it belong to the US?

14

ithinkitslupis 5 hr ago +17

Neither Iran nor the US have authority to stop ships from using right of transit passage through the straight of Hormuz or charge a fee...but here we are.

17

xanas263 3 hr ago +1

At the State level the authority to do things is not granted by a piece of paper but your capacity to actually do it. Unless other countries are able to stop the US and/or Iran from carrying out their blockades they have the authority to do it.

1

Dofolo 5 hr ago +8

Wasn't the whole point to open it? Why are they blocking it? The heck is going on in this timeline ...

8

Khamvom 5 hr ago +6

It’s getting confusing but: The U.S. is blockading all ships going towards *Iranian Ports*. The strategic goal is to choke Iran’s economy and force them to the bargaining table. All ships are *technically* free to transit through the Strait (as long as they don’t sail for an Iranian port)…except they risk being attacked by Iran if they try, so nobody is going to risk it.

6

Dofolo 4 hr ago +1

\*checks map\* But .... Iran isn't exactly an island, and the top (the most green bit) borders for them friendly countries. Oh well, as long as the weather is nice I guess I'll bike to work instead of the car.

1

Khamvom 4 hr ago +1

Iran’s main export is oil. 90% of their oil is exported by sea through the Strait of Hormuz.

1

rmishra592 3 hr ago +1

Didn’t US remove sanction on Iranian oil temporarily two weeks ago to reduce the cost of oil in market?

1

PolarWater 4 hr ago +1

Who does this help, exactly?

1

dodgethis_sg 5 hr ago +3

You blockading traffic to and from their ports or the all traffic through the Straits?

3

wolflordval 5 hr ago +6

Effectively the same thing. Iran is charging a fee and blocking anyone who doesn't pay, and the US is now blocking anyone who \**does*\* pay. It lets Iran completely shut down the straight while simultaneously pushing all the blame onto the US. Geopolitically it's a win for Iran. Other nations are now going to heavily push the US to back off, either softly (US allies) or hard (Iranian allies), giving Iran a massive boost to their political soft power. It's a complete shitshow, instead of forcing a regime change, we massively boosted their political power on the international stage. This isn't set in stone, but this move by the US has a really strong potential to backfire for the US \**hard*\*.

6

dodgethis_sg 4 hr ago +1

So he's effectively blockading Saudi Arabian, Kuwaiti, Bahranian, and Qatari ports too

1

2020bowman 4 hr ago +2

So the USA blocks a German ship, Germany sends a U-boat?

2

Emperor_Biden 6 hr ago +5

But ships that aren't using the Iran and Oman ports are allowed to cross... that means a large percentage of them can now cross freely?

5

distinctidiot 6 hr ago +23

No because ships that are not approved by Iran that do not either leave their ports or go through the coastal area by the straight to pay the toal run the risk of getting attacked by Iran. Pretty much the US is planning to block the traffic Iran wants to let through. However the traffic that Iran does not want through is still being blocked by Iran, meaning no one is getting through.

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swedishplayer97 4 hr ago +1

Unless Iran is bluffing, like when they allowed 2 US destroyers through without issue.

1

RedditUser628426 6 hr ago +9

Well they got to get past the Iranian till booth first I assume?

9

fury420 6 hr ago +5

Ships not using Iran's ports can cross the American blockade, but they may very well get shot at by Iran from shore, so I wouldn't say cross freely.

5

BigFuckHead_ 6 hr ago +2

The question will be whether iran has the missiles and drones to target ships including US ships... we'll see

2

AlexandbroTheGreat 6 hr ago +7

The US can just track the ships and board them in the Indian Ocean.

7

lonigus 6 hr ago +6

Nobody really knows for certain, but they apparently have many hidden tunnels with launchers and small boats with explosives. All it really takes is one tanker hit and there is no ship captain that would risk going trough. And there is no insurance company that would insure the ships during war time.

6

HarEr89 6 hr ago +2

Of course not, because all non-Iran-linked vessels are being blocked by Iran since weeks. But it's likely that we will see attacks on the Iranian ports and island.

2

Flash_ina_pan 6 hr ago +2

Numbnuts and his merry band of morons are betting Iran won't attacks ships that go through the blockade with permission of the US. Literally gambling with the lives of the troops on the blockade ships. It was the same schtick as when he said the US navy would e***** ships through the straight. Problem is, no sane shipping company or insurance company for that matter, will take that risk.

2

BritishAnimator 5 hr ago +2

I'm getting Blazing Saddles vibes from this. When the Sheriff holds a gun to his own head.

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HarEr89 6 hr ago +2

This will eliminate Iran's most important income. US will seize Iran-linked vessels. Israeli channels report that US and Israel are preparing for more airstrikes. Fighting will resume very fast.

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rmishra592 3 hr ago +1

And that will increase the cost of gas at US pumps. Isn’t that what US doesn’t want?

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Forest_Orc 6 hr ago +1

I must confess, I am lost, Last week it was *open the f****** straight* and now it's *Block the f****** the straight but with the greatest blockade ever* I think I'll have a good laugh, because there isn't much I can do, and I'm pretty sure people in charge are smart and know what they do... *do they ?*

1

Bake2727 4 hr ago +1

US has officially “trumped” NK as the biggest baby.

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FoundationGreat7072 6 hr ago -2

so the rest of the world did diplomacy, US got butthurt, and now US is doing the thing they started that Iran did not?

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US military says it will blockade Iran's ports as ship traffic appears to halt in Strait of Hormuz

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