U.S. Navy stopped 13 ships from passing Iranian port blockade, Pentagon says

There are many reasons. The vast majority of GCC members were not shipping oil out in exchange for Iran shipping 0.5-1.5 mb/d. The other \~18.5 mb/d are potentially able to leave when they weren't before. Potentially, oil supply could increase because only Iranian ports are blockaded. There is like \~8 to 8.5 mb/d going through pipelines. Markets already priced in a certain amount of oil escaping per day and we might be exceeding that. The ceasefire and reports from both sides that a deal was way closer than expected with the nuclear issue being the big remaining issue. I was actually surprised by these. The blockade turned an Iranian card into a slight US card so a deal is even more likely. Oil has to be shipped to places which can be up to \~2 months. A blockade is usually not a short term policy. It does make it safer for non-gcc countries to start drilling new oil wells with break even prices of \~$70. Especially if Iranian ones end up being shutdown, restarting them is not a quick process. In the opening stages the promise of it being a 4-5 week war made this risky and it wasn't happening for a while. US ships transited the Strait in the mined area. There have been no reports of any mines being sighted by anyone. Its up in the air if mines were deployed. 451 ships were attacked during the 1980s Tanker War. The market can accept some level of risk. A predictable stabilized risk is usually better than a highly volatile one.

Because the people who should be worried, can't figure out what the hell is going on with U.S. policy; and are unjustifiably optimistic as a result?

It takes weeks for ships with barrels of oil to reach their destination and so we were still getting oil from before the blockade and we have oil reserves we are burning through to artificially shield the American public from the crisis currently hitting South Eat Asia. What is going to happen is the illusion is going to collapse very suddenly as oil is a real finite resource that the market can't just manipulate forever.

First. Trump has actually done a good job at convincing Wall Street that the war is going to be over soon. It's his main message. Pre war, 20 million barrels crossed the strait daily, that's down to about 0. About 7 million barrels have been made up from the surrounding countries increasing production creating a 13 million barrel daily shortfall in worldwide need. Asia is feeling this the most, specifically China, Korea, and Japan. We're about 500 million barrels behind pre war distribution. All of this has caused approx $50 per barrel difference in futures prices vs spot prices. Eventually Wall Street futures contracts will reflect spot pricing. Second, the US is going to feel the effects of the strait closure last due to domestic production. If the strait opens today, it'll take 2-3 months for the world market to catch back up. But the US is going to feel the closure soon as Asian markets are further squeezed. Expect 5 dollar per gallon gas over the next 4 to 6 weeks on average in the US. TLDR: it'll catch up soon

Gas prices are baswd not just on actual supply and demand, but also on speculation for what future supply and demand will be. If you see things that seem counter-intuitive and divorced from reality, its because changes are being fueled moreso by speculation than actual material conditions. This same justification explains why gas prices shot up over several days when it actually takes several weeks for supply chain disruptions to fully materialize.

Because only Iran is being blockaded. Iraq, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain are starting to trade again, hence market rebound and lower prices

Strait is blocked for ships going to or coming from Iran. All other ships are able to cross. So countries like Saudi Arabia can ship their oil without US intervention.

Because the western nations weren't buying Iranian oil to begin with? Really the blockade was probably a better move than blowing up bridges and schools.

Possibly global markets stabilizing or market is pricing in stability with the purchase of more US oil? One could hope.. 🤣 But don't listen to me, I'm no where in an educated position to even be commenting on this 😂

Depriving them of their main revenue stream.

Blocking Iran from doing business in their ports, tanking their economy.

Make the stock market go up? For some reason

You see, as a pariah state that was already heavily sanctioned this will make it hard to make money selling oil to China unless China decides they want to, in which case we will undoubtedly let them. But for now China and Iran are content to watch the US piss away it's global position for nothing.

This is a great question. Nobody has ever doubted they could stop ships. What they believe it accomplishes is the real tell. IMO, an utterly useless show of force, given the circumstances.

Shattered the illusion that Iran had control of the strait and was in position to profit from it. Theres the downvotes. Much of listnook bought the illusion that Iran had control of the strait.

It helps to ensure the oil supply is stopped and shuts down the straight of Hormuz. Uhhhhh isn’t that the plan or ummmm maybe it isn’t not sure

F****** over the dark fleet

I believe the one Chinese ship that was able to pass through was the one that came from UAE and not Iran. Also sounds like blockade is from ships sailing from Iran

One of the first ships to turn back was Chinese.

Don’t let the Chinese bots on Listnook fool you into downplaying the US win here. No Chinese ships are getting through, and the only way for China to not collapse from a lack of oil is to either force Iran to accept a deal or give the US whatever it wants to end the blockade. This is a brilliant move by the US to end the conflict without violence.

It limits the Iranian economy and weapon shipments while providing protection for the gulf states to produce oil again. It is something that should have been done a while ago, but the Trump administration got rid of competent people. Trump thought Iran would be another Maduro situation and then scrambled until finally getting lucky with this blockade

Well, it keeps the news cycle from asking the important questions about the Epstein files 

Uniformed members speaking on behalf of the pentagon, atleast for this war, have seemed relatively non political and mostly sticking with facts. The routine I have seen is Trump goes on and says a bunch of crazy and we usually need to wait a few hours or a day to see what the pentagon explains. Which is likely what was originally briefed to Trump before he turned it into stuff like” entire navy is at the bottom of the ocean”. The translation is that the majority of the Iranians large warships are destroyed, however 60 percent of the smaller fast attack vessels of the IRGC remain operational as they were hiding underground pens, this takes away the larger threats to the US navy but leaves the threat to merchant shipping mostly intact” It’s like the war objectives. The pentagon never seemed to indicate they’ve received tasking for regime change as their objectives have been pretty consistent from the beginning until now, which is the derogation of the IRGC military capabilities. If you listen to Trump, you would think we have completely different objectives. I’ve generally found them down to earth throughout this crisis. I take it you disagree? I am sure there are some facts that can be disputed but you seem to believe they are a BS Factory and that really hasn’t been my assessment.

Yeah, as soon as I see that guy's face I just know it's BS.

Amazing how the USA now has less credibility than China and Iran

Exactly. Had me in the first half.

Ships going to or coming from Iranian ports. Doesn’t matter what flag they fly. Technically this blockade isn’t just in the Persian gulf either. There are generally more ways around sanctions , which is what you mentioned as work arounds. It’s a lot harder if it is big tanker ships to work around with satellite imagery

Or let through everyone but Iran. 🔥💸🔥💰🔥💲🔥

Sounds like you should just accept that you don’t understand simple tactics. Iran was blockading the straight for select ships by threats only. The US navy is blockading traffic with physical force so that Iran cannot send their own ships and Chinese ships through the straight. One is not like the other.

You can beat a blockade by blockading the blockade- Don Tsu I heard you like blockades; so we blockaded your blockade- trumpzibit

I trust my horoscope more than the Pentagon.

Love it or hate it the war power resolution act gave the power for this to happen to the executive branch. Congress would need to get involved to curtail the powers given in that law, like has been done in the past. This keeps getting voted down by the Republican Party, so here we are. This has been thrown around a ton but the last time Congress declared war was December 8th, 1941.

There’s no reason to stop ships that are originating from UAE. Chinese ships connected to Iran have already been turned back.

Sauce?

“I wouldn’t need to hurt the world if they just let me conquer a few countries unquestioned!” is peak abuser behavior.

Idk why you think we are doing this for Israel. We are doing this for us. This is the biggest power play on the geopolitical stage in decades. The US is securing the global energy market and putting themselves as the global curator. They are building immense leverage against China.

Should we ignore how they funded the Houthi rebels who were actively attacking ships transiting the Bab Al-Mandab Strait last year, and strained maritime commerce?  It's not like Iran's hands are clean here. 

They are blocking the *ports* in Iran, not the strait. It's a blockade.

For countries not named Iran yes....

It's pretty easy for international shipping vessels to be tracked. In fact they're all tracked on a public service via transponders on every single vessel. You can view it in real time on [marinetraffic.com](http://marinetraffic.com)