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News & Current Events Mar 28, 2026 at 6:23 PM

US recession odds rise as Iran war escalates

Posted by FootballPizzaMan


US recession odds rise as Iran war escalates
Newsweek
US recession odds rise as Iran war escalates
Experts warn that the conflict’s impact on energy prices in particular has heightened the risk of another economic downturn.

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Ecstatic-Plantain234 Mar 28, 2026 +29
Perhaps a (deep) recession is the price America needs to pay to get rid of Trump once and for all. It does seem that some age old political rules still hold true, even under Trump. No matter how much people are willing to look away from all sorts of nasty things, once they feel your policies in their wallets, you're out.
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Mental-Position-4533 Mar 28, 2026 +13
Been feeling it for 10 years, he got reelected.
13
pchs26 Mar 28, 2026 +6
I mean I think this admin WANTS there to be an economic downturn for most working Americans - they seem to be pushing for it deliberately as it will allow them to do even better. So they win if there is a recession or worse.
6
JustDesserts29 Mar 29, 2026 +3
Its billionaires who want an economic downturn. During a recession/depression, the average middle class person winds up having to sell a bunch of their stuff in order to put food on their table. Of course, billionaires lose some money during recessions/depressions, but they have so much money that they’ll never have to worry about putting food on their table. For them, a recession/depression is an opportunity to bull up all the stuff that everyone else is forced to sell for dirt c****.
3
ShelfDiver Mar 29, 2026 +1
We’ll get a democrat in office and because they won’t be able to fix multi decade issues in under 2 years and we’ll be back here again.
1
pilot2969 Mar 28, 2026 +18
Ooooh, we’re going much deeper than a recession….
18
fllannell Mar 28, 2026 +17
We're already in a recession. The government is cooking the books and trying to hide what is right in front of everyone's eyes. It is only a matter of time until it has to to be acknowledged. There is no job growth. Constant layoffs and people can't find new jobs after they get laid off. Small businesses shutting down. People are using up their retirement savings to survive. The housing market is dead and homes are losing value. Every food product is actually getting smaller in packaging rations in addition to switching to cheaper ingredients, which feels an AWFUL lot like rationing promoted by the government to businesses. The Trump administration is trying to hide it, but the true working people here can feel it every day. The economy is not healthy.
17
Flincher14 Mar 29, 2026 +5
I have been fairly certain that the government is just making up whatever numbers they have control of. The thing that bothers me is that the markets seem complicit and accept the government at its word.
5
P1xelHunter78 Mar 28, 2026 +2
Food packaging is a separate issue caused by runaway consolidation in our food system. No competition means food conglomerates can do whatever they want hell they want.
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fllannell Mar 28, 2026
I think it's because the government is secretly pressuring them to ration food behind closed doors, to be on the administration's good side, to enact rations without "officially" enacting rations.
0
No_Sandwich555 Mar 29, 2026
This is just economics and our government isn't that smart. Bottom line - companies are trying to please stakeholders. Keep those stock prices rising. Keep the same or better profit numbers or stock prices suffer. Costs go up what do you do? You decrease the Cost of goods sold(less product and packaging or shrinkflation), while raising prices to keep the "value" of your company rising. Therefore increasing shareholders profits through their shares. What is not sustainable is this concept of increasing value to be successful. It's draining the bottom class and exponentially fueling wealth inequality. There is a reason billionaires are building bunkers. This economic system isn't sustainable and shit is gonna hit the fan.
0
pchs26 Mar 28, 2026 +1
I mean I would say by me houses aren't losing value they continue to skyrocket in prices and are at a point of not being attainable to a fiscally sensible white collar middle class DINKs..I looked at a house approx 5 years ago that was a stretch but a legit consideration that is now completely unattainable for me and has almost doubled in price valuation. Rentals are the same...1 bed/1bath right down the road for $4500/mos. We are dealing with stagflation, not deflation. Prices are going up across the board and the job market/income is losing ground rapidly.
1
TheGreatGamer1389 Mar 28, 2026 +6
Ya I'm thinking it's gonna be a depression.
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PlasticStrin Mar 28, 2026 +33
We’re already dealing with a brittle economy at home, and now a regional war is a massive wildcard for energy prices. If oil spikes while the Fed is still trying to figure out a soft landing, the odds start feeling more like a countdown
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failbotron Mar 28, 2026 +4
The soft landing is already affecting pipe dream. Multiple economic markers are pointing to spiking inflation, which will drive more rate increases. The only elreason we're not in full crisis mode yet is because countries are tapping into their oil reserves. Bigly
4
Intel-Source Mar 28, 2026 +2
Because of this mess, interest rates will rise!
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P1xelHunter78 Mar 28, 2026 +1
Soft landing? Didn’t we already have one? Seems like Trump tossed us up to the wind.
1
kia75 Mar 28, 2026 +13
We're already in a recession. Every company except for tech company is doing bad right now, it's only AI money that's pushing up GDP, and that money isn't real, and even if it was it's not helping your average person or business!
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pchs26 Mar 28, 2026 +5
I mean tech companies are also over leveraged at best and are doing extensive labor cuts and offshoring. It is horrible.
5
Intel-Source Mar 28, 2026 +2
And the price on everything that moves will soon skyrocket!
2
Mental-Position-4533 Mar 28, 2026 +1
It is real and helps me. It's terrible for society but no need to fib about it.
1
Imaginary-Ad-7919 Mar 28, 2026 +11
War abroad, recession at home. Classic combo.
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ConsistentExcellence Mar 28, 2026 +1
Yes, I’ll have the recession for here and the war crimes to go, thanks. Extra whipped senate.
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fllannell Mar 29, 2026 +1
stirring up war to boost the economy during a recession to try to prevent a depression, also classic, following the lesson learned from wwii that war is the way out of a domestic depression. probably the same reason (in part) ice efforts were amplified and spread across the country (to things that are not their responsibility), to bolster employment and spending.
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whateveryousaymydear Mar 28, 2026 +10
Based on March 2026 reports for the previous month (February 2026), the U.S. labor market experienced a sharp decline, with employers cutting 92,000 jobs rather than adding them. Recession seems to be here already
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Intel-Source Mar 28, 2026 +3
Way more layoffs coming.
3
Noiserawker Mar 28, 2026 +4
The odds are 100%, without Trump cooking books the numbers would be even worse
4
MiddleAgedSponger Mar 28, 2026 +2
Higher prices and negative job growth are not a winning strategy.
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Taurius2 Mar 28, 2026 +2
Iran, can you keep it up till November? Literally the only thing to stop all this madness.
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TheShipEliza Mar 28, 2026 +2
Ngl we are already in a recession
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[deleted] Mar 28, 2026 +2
[deleted]
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P1xelHunter78 Mar 28, 2026 +1
Don’t forget the AI bubble. Yeah, we’re screwed. So I guess I’m in for the third major financial crisis since I turned 17. In 35.
1
Mental-Position-4533 Mar 28, 2026 +1
The ai bubble is a listnook pipe dream, the money just won't go to you.
1
snbgames Mar 28, 2026 +2
This will 100% turn into a world wide depression event.
2
zubuneri Mar 29, 2026 +2
We have people liquidating their 401ks and a new fed chair coming in who will cut rates DURING inflation.  We’re heading into a Depression. 
2
Intel-Source Mar 28, 2026 +1
Depression odds!
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Djent_Reznor1 Mar 28, 2026 +1
If a recession is what it takes to get people to show up at midterms, so be it.
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Mental-Position-4533 Mar 28, 2026 +1
Been hearing this for so long, their schemes keep us resilient if nothing else.
1
dancingfordates Mar 28, 2026 +1
No shit,, I thought burning resources , cutting off oil and destabilizing the world would give the economy a big bump...
1
Rainbowborn Mar 29, 2026 +1
Lost Public Emotion people Dont like war
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Street_Anxiety2907 Mar 29, 2026 +2
Are we not already in a huge recession? Nearly 40% of the people in my field are laid off and I'm expecting layoffs but can't get interviews 400 applications in.... something isnt right?
2
Solid_Chocolate9311 Mar 29, 2026 +1
4.2 percent.
1
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