What will be the long term outcome of the Iran war?

Damn. My friend and I both graduated in '08, and I had been in college. I still remember the day I got the news. I was visiting some relatives in Dallas, and then I got back to Norther Utah, I where we grew up, my friends and I mourned him. As he was the first one of our friends to die. 

>”*But don’t most Iranians hate their current leadership?*” It’s a country of 90 million people. Even if only 1% are absolute hardliners, that’s nearly a million people. And I think most experts agree, there are definitely more than 1%….

Yes. But then American comes and murders their daughters in a school. The brother head the regime saying America was evil, now they believe it and the regime will give them the opportunity for revenge.

Their current regime is a consequence of CIA involvement in the overthrowing of a previously democratically elected government of Iran. The reason? They wanted to nationalise their oil, and so in their infinite wisdom to control oil in the Middle East, the US/UK started a coup. A little bit of history lesson doesn’t hurt. But most don’t even know it. The US started it, they fucked it up, now they want to continue f****** it up.

I don't like Trump, that doesn't mean I'd root for Mexico to come bomb the shit out of the U.S.

While most Iranians don’t like their regime it doesn’t mean that the regime doesn’t have supporters. Iran is a country of 90 million people. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (regime enforcers) number roughly 500 thousand, and are the main beneficiaries of the regime, and the IRGC owns large parts of Iran’s economy. If you take the IRGC, their families, and other supporters/beneficiaries, you’re still looking at 10s of millions of regime hardliners within Iran. That’s a lot of people, even if they are a minority.

The new regime is literally worse than the previous one

Its enough that multiple contenders work within their own respective ecosystems. Pass Hormuz in Yuan. Trade third world in BRICS. Stablecoins for the rest. Honestly anything that even cracks USD hegemony and America isn’t remotely prepared for the fall out of that. We can barely deal with it while still being the meeting point of the world with our eve growing cost of living to wage disparity.

Not yet. Certainly no one was asking these questions seriously a year ago. Oil trading outside the dollar will do a number itself.

But the US also currently has all these problems, minus the one child policy, but China stopped that policy a decade ago anyway.

Easy to solve by having unmarried men conquer neighboring countries. Some die, many marry the conquered women. Loot the resources of the conquered to kick off a new baby boom.

This war is absolutely fantastic for China as it significantly undermines US power, global economic influence, and respect while also being extremely expensive and ruining our longstanding allied relationships. Our failures are their wins.

All china has to do is keep calm and carry on trading reliably, building relationships and reputation. The USA had been coasting on WW2 and cold war gains for a while when trump decided that allies were pointless and repeatedly took chunks out of any confidence anyone else had in America. With America digging it's own grave, the position of Global Adult in the Room is now vacant. Russia has already proven itself a joke, the European Union is too inward looking to take on the role and none of the individual European powers have the economy or the military clout to take it individually. The only potential spanner in the works is Taiwan. If China makes a move on taking the island by force, then we're into complete shit show territory, with three disgraced superpowers throwing their toys out of the pram at the same time and Europe pulling up the drawbridge. I'd rather not find out how that plays out.

You know the short military campaign Russia launched into Ukraine? How's that going? How has that affected the preceived might and compotency of the Russian armed forces? We (the US) had a good 30 year run where we were who you turned if you needed something done internationally.

Iran now owns the strait which means anyone not an ally gets tolls for passage. China Iran India Pakistan all get free passage.

Yes but they win on relative terms as the US loses more

I mean it would be bad for China if Iran lost...but the way it is going it doesn't seem like US is going to win this one ... It will be a modern day Vietnam

They want the good old days when every region is beholden to a certain power and keeping to their spheres. So America retaining its own dominance over the Americas and leave the "Old World" to Russia

Not really. CBDC are created and controlled by the central banks, like the European Central Bank (ECB). The Bitcoin is a direct competitor and in the long run, the central banks and governments will try to make it more difficult to use it and try to ban it.

Bitcoin is crypto and not a centralized currency. Probably the Yuan or Ruble Rupee Euro....

Sure. I’m talking about Iran’s role in backing terrorist groups - funding, training, weapons. That part isn’t really disputed; governments and analysts have been reporting it for years. The argument is that putting military pressure on those networks limits their ability to operate and carry out attacks, especially against civilians. That doesn’t make it clean. Military action still has real humanitarian costs. But those costs are often more contained than people assume when they talk about the conflict in broad terms. My point is that the proxy angle tends to get ignored when people simplify what’s going on in the region.

The article below can give you some more insight. You can paste the link into archive.ph if you're met with a paywall. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/real-war-irans-future Equatorial Guinea sells oil and they are under some sanctions. https://www.listnook.com/r/ThatsInsane/s/fDkBdDHLi2

You ARE the bad guys.

The Iranian voices you are hearing are the loudest minority of hyper-liberals in Tehran. Even then, they were recently protesting in Tehran (the most liberal part of the country) against the US Israeli attacks and for the regime. The "new" regime, it should be mentioned is simply headed by the son of the ayatollah that was killed, and he's more of a hardliner than his dad was. The IRGC can easily point the finger at the former ayatollah and say "this guy was too soft, and look what it got it" as a justification to strengthen their position with their people. It's important to note that they didn't get regime change, nor will they. They strengthened the existing regime at best. I only know 2 people who are not Americans who are actively against the IRGC in this instance, and their reasons stem from childhood oppression within a neighboring country. Iran has won the war on moral ground already. All that's left is the bloodbath really. I think the US either MUST pull out now, throw the secretary of war under the bus, have him tried for war crimes and treason, and absolve themselves of as much responsibility as possible, while dealing with the fallout (virtually impossible). Or, they can commit to the war, conscript 1.5 million plus people for a very hopeful ground invasion which already failed in the 80s (they have virtually no choice, must enter through a chokepoint) against a guerilla force comprised of 92 million people. Israel is riding on the coattails of the US here. Iran is 70 times larger than Israel with many times the population and powerful regional allies. With regard to China this is kind of how I see it: The US has been prepping for an imaginary shootout with the Russians and Chinese for the better part of 4 decades now. China already won without firing a shot. During that time, Iran was prepping for a grimy guerilla war with the US (which the US is notoriously badly suited to). The US expansion into Venezuela can be used to establish a satellite state from which they can comb through the rest of South America and setup their proxies to dominate the region and most of the resources. Not to mention the oil. For the life of me I can't understand picking a fight with Iran of all countries, and how it could possibly help the US, so I see no relation between Iran and China from the US perspective. Also, the strait of hormuz has been clamped by Iran and they only really have been letting through Pakistani and Chinese vessels. Anyone could have guessed this would happen due to how counterintuitive it all is. This hurts the US severely in terms of their competition with China obviously since China still gets their resources at a competitive rate and the US is going to be paying $200 a barrel. Cuba is a humanitarian issue. The Americans wanted it, Che and Fidel didn't let them take it, they sanctioned it as a national security threat and soviet satellite state, and will let it crumble until they can waltz in with water bottles and red crosses to save the day and film their documentaries. Nothing to do with China, Russia, or Venezuela, and clear "human rights" violations. What happens next is Iran and Israel go at it, the US either stays in or runs away, China moves on Taiwan while the US is weak, Taiwan has to assume the US can protect it, but knows not to trust the US anymore which will lead to increased military spending. The Japanese will remilitarize because of the existence of the Chinese and their history. South Korea will have to ramp up spending to keep North Korea at bay because now Kon Jong Un knows the US doesn't help it's allies, Pakistan will do whatever the highest bigger tells them to do, which is China, so them and India will continue threatening each other, the GCC states have had their reputations as desert safe havens obliterated and with it much of their economies, Germany will remilitarize purely out of precaution against Putin and the Americans, etc. A hegemon is a dominant authority. A king so to speak. Sorry for rambling

A hegemon is a leading state, group, or entity possessing dominant political, economic, and military influence over others, often enforcing international rules without requiring formal territorial control. Originating from the Greek hēgemōn ("leader"), a hegemon maintains global or regional stability, often favoring the status quo while managing or suppressing challengers

"A hegemon is a leading, dominant power—usually a state, entity, or group—that exerts significant influence over others, often dictating political, economic, or cultural terms."

As the ranking officer on this vessel, I've ordered Lister to order a scutter to fill the vending machine.

I agree - the Iranian people that have been j see this insane rule for decades should be free to govern themselves

It started long before trump my friend. Look at all the coups and proxy wars in the past hundred years and see where you were involved. The enablement of Israel is a massive one you guys who didn’t vote for trump are responsible for too

My point was many of you have a misplaced national pride and belief your country is the good guys when the opposite is true. Out of 250 years of your history you haven't been at war for 16 of them.