Honestly, Russia's pulled too many rugs for me to be hopeful yet.
162
CantFeelMyToesAgain2 days ago
+6
Russia is getting desperate as f*** though. 2% of all students are now being conscripted and anyone with debt over a certain amount. They lost 1.5 million in 2025 alone
6
DNAturation1 day ago
+1
Pretty sure that 1.5 million is casualties over the entire war, there's no way they lost that many in a single year.
1
CantFeelMyToesAgain1 day ago
+1
No it was last year alone. Kyiv released the numbers a week ago. It’s way more for the entire war
1
DNAturation1 day ago
+1
Let me rephrase that, I'm 99.99% sure that you are wrong and 1.5 million casualties is the upper estimate by Ukraine themselves for the entirety of the war and I came to that conclusion after Googling it before I posted that comment. Last year there were articles of Ukraine hitting a milestone of over 1 million casualties total.
How many Russian casualties have there been for the entire war then if they got 1.5 million in a single year in 2025?
1
CantFeelMyToesAgain1 day ago
+1
That’s what I’m looking for rn. Unless Kyiv grouped their own casualties into it?
I know the Russians have mandated that 2% of all students with a certain amount of debt are now being conscripted and certain criminals (non violent) are even being forced into service because of the heavy losses.
I’ll look a bit more and if I find something I’ll link it here for you
1
sumregulaguy3 days ago
+107
It's almost like going after Russia's wallet was the answer all along and why Ukraine was asking for sanctions and means and permission to strike Russia's oil infrastructure from day one.
107
red75prim3 days ago
-80
Reporting here is very biased. If you [look at the numbers](https://energyandcleanair.org/february-2026-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/) the impact isn't that high.
-80
Thunder-123453 days ago
+47
That's data up to February, Ukraine significantly stepped up their stikes on oil infrastructure since the start of the war in Iran so we really need the data for the next few months to see what the impact is.
47
red75prim3 days ago
-21
Ah, sorry, I thought the attacks began in February.
Nevertheless, shipments seem to recover: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-08/russia-boosts-oil-income-to-highest-since-early-in-ukraine-war
> A total of 28 tankers loaded 20.88 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to April 5, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was a marked recovery from 16.62 million barrels on 22 ships the previous week.
-21
Heavy_Secret_2033 days ago
+6
Of course, shipments will recover. Destroying a port is a huge task. The most important thing here is that Ukraine has its own capabilities to strike them that far, which wasn't the case in 2022. Additionally, it now has its own cruise missile and a ballistic one being scheduled for combat trials this summer. These systems are far from being perfect, but good enough so russians started thinking about consequences.
Western support of Ukraine is huge, but blocking it from striking targets deep inside russia was a deliberate move to prolong the war.
6
Myraan3 days ago
+20
You should actually look at the charts you post. Seems pretty significant to me?
20
Cigerza3 days ago
+15
Do you have eyes? Do they work? Can you read graphs??? The impact is massive.
15
TurbulentRadish81133 days ago
+3
Check the d******* on russian crude.
Make sure you're comparing oil price with oil price - the Trading Economics Urals price includes delivery and insurance paid by Russia.
You want the FOB at Primorsk, Novorossiysk & Kozmino.
The d*******, which was caused entirely by sanctions, ranged from $5-30/barrel. It was recently ~$25/barrel.
With 4m barrel/day crude moved by ship, the sanctions were keeping Russian revenues at least $100m/day below the no-sanctions case.
This was pure profit Russia lost. They still had to pay all the production costs which means that proportionally the sanctions had a bigger effect.
This ignores how sanctions raised production costs, likely reduced output (Russia finally produced below quota recently), & affected natural gas or other products.
3
bloomberg3 days ago
+42
*From Bloomberg News reporters Volodymyr Verbianyi and Olesia Safronova:*
Ukraine’s top negotiator with Russia said he sees progress toward a potential peace deal with the Kremlin, adding that a resolution to the war may not take long to achieve.
While negotiations to end Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II have publicly yielded few results, Kyrylo Budanov expressed optimism that the talks are evolving toward a settlement. Ukraine’s former top military spy said he believes Russia also wants to stop the war.
“They all understand the war needs to end. That’s why they are negotiating,” Budanov said in an April 4 interview with Bloomberg. “I don’t think it will be long.”
42
miningman123 days ago
+23
Lol Budanov as negotiator is hilarious
23
andersaborre3 days ago
+58
Hilarious if they make a peace deal without Trump, he would be fuming for not getting credit
58
Gold-Appearance-44633 days ago
+70
He will claim credit anyway - just look at the other wars „he ended“
70
toofabforfanghorn3 days ago
+1
Especially the Albania and Armenian war /s
1
Total_Helicopter_5913 days ago
+10
I dont envy the Ukrainians having to negotiate with a snake in human skin , but nobody wants a forever war.
10
TheGodPePe3 days ago
-14
So no one read the article then...
-14
AnyBug10393 days ago
+13
I tried but it's behind a paywall so only read the first couple of paragraphs
13
MagicBoyUK3 days ago
+4
It's paywalled. 🤦♂️
4
Sure_Return39333 days ago
+3
I even attended the prestigious Derek Zoolander Center for Kids Who Can't Read Good (and Who Wanna Learn to Do Other Stuff Good Too)
3
Educational_Word_8953 days ago
+6
I would not pay too much attention to news like this. It is impossible to determine if this claim is actually true, as Ukraine has an interest to be perceived as being constructive towards a peace agreement. This could all be part of the negotiation theatrics Ukraine and Russia put on to placate the US.
Actually, I believe it is, as I am more than willing to believe that the..let's say...intellectually more astute people in the Kremlin very much want the war to end. I believe, however, that Putin is as committed to the war as he ever was (if not more), especially as the US-Israeli blunder in Iran has thrown him a lifeline.
Longer-term higher energy prices, diminished American reputation and power and a rupture within NATO should lead one to conclude that, if anything, Russia should grow more confident. (although that may very well proof to be short-sighted).
In short: I don't believe that either side has an actual interest in ending hostilies as both sides believe that time is on their side.
edit: typo
6
IntelArtiGen3 days ago
+27
I've been reading that same news story for 3 years I think. "Near end of the war" > then hundreds of Shahed drones sent on Kyiv. Same thing everytime.
27
Public-Finger2 days ago
+3
yea, I'm very skeptical too- but it's new that the Defense Minister publicly saying that he thinks the war is close to over. However, it's hard to imagine any deal that Putin would backdown without having taken at least the administrative borders of donetsk. How humiliating that in 14 years of war they can't even take the east of Ukraine as "the 2nd military in the world." That's to say nothing of the fact they don't even occupy Kherson or Zaporizhia, despite claiming that their oblasts are constitutionally their territory.
It's an absolute joke, they dug themselves so deep that any backing down from that, then they will have to claim that Ukraine is still occupying "their territory."
3
VillageIdiot512 days ago
+2
second best military in Ukraine
2
No-Cryptographer74943 days ago
+11
russia doesn't want to stop the war only the losses, they will just shift to another baltic state thats less prepared
11
paseroto3 days ago
+3
Now it's the time to put more economic pressure on Russia
3
unrulycelt3 days ago
+11
I think Ukraine is on the verge of winning this war or at least turning it back at Russia with their drone superiority. I hope they regain their lost territory and chase them back into their homeland
11
Be_quiet_Im_thinking2 days ago
If Ukraine end the war, they will send their drone making capacity to the middle eastern countries for hunting Iranian drones.
0
MagicBoyUK3 days ago
+6
Anytime Russia want to stop the war, they can just leave Ukraine. And the Crimea. Then pay reparations.
6
Apart_Ad69943 days ago
+3
Lets hope this is true and this was finally ends. The killing must stop.
3
morning_redwoody3 days ago
+13
Well.....I wouldn't be upset if a certain dictator didn't wake up tomorrow.
13
llDS2ll3 days ago
+4
I can name several
4
Slipsonic3 days ago
+3
Yeah I was about to say, which one? Can we get a 2 for 1 deal?
3
Dazslueski3 days ago
+2
Part of me doesn’t want a deal to happen until after U.S. midterms. DJT will be so loud and incessant that he and he alone could get this peace deal and he will squeeze every little drop of poll boosting bullshit out of it.
2
Significant-Way39601 day ago
+1
It's so sad that Americans won't understand that if that war will end it won't be because of Trump but despite him. Ukrainians can be thankful to Biden. They have nothing to thank orange man for.
1
Lubbock423 days ago
+1
I think with the Iran situation, peace with Ukraine, so they can sell their oil with big profit seems like a good idea
1
Ubbesson3 days ago
+1
Not gonna happen. The minimum requirements for Ukraine would bet pre 2020 borders. So Russia will only keep Crimea and part of Dombass. So basically destroyed their army for nothing . Putain will never agree to this
1
Paul__Perkenstein3 days ago
+1
Ahhhh excellent. Another war Trump has ended. Is this number 10 now?
1
[deleted]3 days ago
-4
[deleted]
-4
Character_League_4333 days ago
+6
You don’t have to break fortified lines directly, you have to degrade logistics. If supply, ammo, and rotations become unreliable, even strong positions lose effectiveness over time. Ukrainian drones are already hitting logistics tens of kilometers behind the front, and even Russian sources describe rear areas as increasingly unsafe. That’s one of the key factors behind recent Ukrainian advances.
But the more significant shift isn’t on the frontlines. It’s Ukraine’s growing ability to strike high-value targets deeper in Russian-controlled areas. That likely plays a role in why Budanov has sounded more optimistic about a potential peace deal. Ukraine is, to some extent, building its own form of security guarantee by demonstrating how effectively it can strike targets inside Russia with domestically produced systems. There are certain assets Russia cannot afford to lose, and increasing pressure on them changes the overall calculus.
6
[deleted]3 days ago
-5
[deleted]
-5
Character_League_4333 days ago
+1
Calling it “symbolic” doesn’t really hold up. Ukraine is running a sustained campaign against Russian energy and industrial infrastructure, forcing shutdowns, repairs, and rerouting. That has already caused multi-billion damage and losses and continues to tie up resources.
Even when facilities come back online, Russia has to spend more on protection, logistics, and redundancy, which reduces efficiency. And that’s the key point: higher oil prices don’t fully translate into higher revenue if you can’t process and export at full capacity.
Yes, Russia also attacks Ukraine. But Ukraine has spent years adapting; hardening its grid, improving repairs, and building redundancy. And unlike Russia, its economy isn’t centered around oil and gas, so the impact isn’t directly hitting its main revenue source in the same way.
1
charlsspice3 days ago
+1
This is a lot of pro russia talking points lol
1
vikernes3 days ago
-21
Everything you wrote is correct, but you are also thinking way too much into this; these negotiations are simple - Ukraine will soon (probably) run out of money. That's basically what this is about. Now they just need to frame it as "Russia also wants to end the war". The real surprise will be what will be given up in these nogotiations.
-21
Mateo_O3 days ago
+10
This comment is sponsored by russian troll farms.
10
Tabbyredcat3 days ago
+4
Ukraine has money because we're giving it to them and will continue to do so if necessary.
They've been crystal clear for 4 years that they won't give any territory too.
4
[deleted]3 days ago
-3
[deleted]
-3
Tabbyredcat3 days ago
+2
Germany, the Eastern European countries and I'd bet France and UK too, will never, ever under any circumstances accept that Ukraine gives up land just because it is expensive.
Yes, Ukraine is very dependent economically and intel wise. Regarding equipment, they've proven creativity, innovation and vision beyond anyone's wildest guesses.
> Germany and France are clearly building “post-war” plans for reintegrating with Russia economically
Dude, pay attention. This war has proven that in Europe we can find oil / gas sources other than Russia without much effort. We're also switching to renewable energies, and we are switching fast, so the clock is ticking for our energetic dependence.
As for resuming trade relations with Russia, a scenario in which Ukraine has to give up land would make that 100% impossible.
2
[deleted]3 days ago
[deleted]
0
Tabbyredcat3 days ago
+1
The ship of depending on Russia's energy sailed in 2022, you just forgot to wave it goodbye.
> French and German messaging has shifted sharply from “total Russian defeat and long term economic isolation” to “eventual normalization”.
As evidenced by Russia still being sanctioned by the EU and approving a 90B€ loan to Ukraine that only the Hungarian traitor about to meet his demise is blocking?
1
ProtoplanetaryNebula3 days ago
+1
The issue isn’t Ukraine, the issue is Russia’s deal terms are not realistic.
1
[deleted]3 days ago
+1
[deleted]
1
ProtoplanetaryNebula3 days ago
+1
The EU simply can’t have Russia expanding and taking over Ukraine under any circumstances, so in that sense Ukraine can outlast Russia.
What if Ukraine finds away to blow up all of Russias oil exporting capacity, the country will last 6 months max before collapsing.
1
[deleted]3 days ago
-2
[deleted]
-2
Character_League_4333 days ago
+3
>Many don’t want to admit it, but Ukraine almost certainly gives up the land Russia holds, or at least large portions of it- and doesn’t get substantial security guarantees from the West.
There isn't the slightest chance that Ukraine will accept any deal that doesn't prevent new russian attacks in the future. In this case fighting the war stays the better option for them.
3
[deleted]3 days ago
-1
[deleted]
-1
Character_League_4333 days ago
+2
The EU already lined up around €90 billion in new support, which Hungary blocked at the last minute. These aren’t normal loans. They’re structured with the expectation that Russian assets or reparations will cover them and are zero-interest. The EU has a clear self-interest in getting this money to Ukraine. The open question is how to work around internal blockages, which may become clearer after the Hungarian elections.
And as mentioned in another comment, Ukraine is to some extent building its own security guarantees by demonstrating that it can strike targets deep inside Russia without relying solely on Western weapons.
2
Tabbyredcat3 days ago
+1
> but Ukraine almost certainly gives up the land Russia holds, or at least large portions of it
If Ukraine were at all willing to give up land, the war would've ended 4 years ago. There's no chance in hell they'll give up land.
If this Ukranian top aide is saying this it's probably because Russia doesn't want to get all of their oil refineries blown up.
1
[deleted]3 days ago
[deleted]
0
Tabbyredcat3 days ago
+3
This war ends either with Ukraine's destruction, which we Europeans should never allow if we have half a brain left, or with Russia having no choice but to leave completely.
No middle grounds, IMO.
3
[deleted]3 days ago
+1
[deleted]
1
Tabbyredcat3 days ago
Russia is only being welcomed into the international community by the gone-rogue new pariah US and other non-European countries.
Poland and the Baltics will (rightly) NEVER accept that Russia takes Ukranian land. It would be a severe existential threat to them. And we Western Europeans are members of the EU as they are, so we'll stand where they'll stand on this matter, as a threat to one is a threat to all.
If we stood together for Greenland, a distant land with barely 50k inhabitants, and against the US no less, do you think there's a microscopic chance we wouldn't go even further at Poland's or the Baltics' request?
I think you're the one living in wishful thinking if you really believe that Russia will not only have to give up occupied territory but also pay reparations for just a "maybe" in normalizing diplomatic and trade relations with the EU.
0
iamnosuperman1233 days ago
-2
This would mean massive concession from Ukraine. Putin isn't going to leave with his tail between his legs
-2
ProtoplanetaryNebula3 days ago
+6
I think Putin is learning that the battlefield lines are fortified to hell now and nothing will change. Russia is losing 50K people per month and their oil infrastructure is being destroyed.
He can keep going and bombing nightly, but it doesn’t actually help Russia. Ukraine isn’t any more likely to give up if they send more bombs
6
Lakedo1 day ago
+1
no, no deal unless Russia surrenders unconditionally to Ukraine
69 Comments